FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

12z still updating. we have a bit of a battleground with cold vs mild around 7th/8th of February. I think the cold might win out on the last few frames, lets see.

Captain Snow

Gonzo wrote: »

12z still updating. we have a bit of a battleground with cold vs mild around 7th/8th of February. I think the cold might win out on the last few frames, lets see.

Whats going to happen Next.......:eek:

Gonzo

if we could carry on more beyond 384 hours we would either see the Atlantic coming back in or the unleashing of another beast from the north perhaps, but this is over 2 weeks away and more than likely won't verify. It's looking like February is going to produce a notable cold spell compared to the tame efforts we have seen so far but we will not know till a cold event locks in, how snowy it would be or could it leave us very cold but dry. The next week could either be fascinating or heartbreaking in terms of model watching.

Artane2002

in the nearer term, the ICON/GFS/GEM are all showing a transient snow event for the midlands, north and east on the 31st. it would be nice to see more snow falling before hopefully we get the real deal some time in February.

Captain Snow

Captain Snow wrote: »

Whats going to happen Next.......:eek:

Not much for the moment.....

nacho libre

Well the model output seems to be in line with the UK Met Office update. If there is merit to this the ECM should be something showing similar

Artane2002

the ECM also is showing a spell of snow for the north, midlands and east on Sunday, looks fairly heavy too for some. then it turns to rain in line with what the other models are showing.

Edit: I should add that there is a slight onshore component for most of the east coast, keeping the precip as rain throughout.

nacho libre

The ECM is more or less onboard-
all roads pointing north this evening as per the UKMO outlook.

Although it does not get the cold in on this run. Its a step in the right direction. The only concern is the big area of low heights over Canada possibly firing up the Atlantic.

pauldry

Just when I got off the rollercoaster I have to go back on again.

The weather charts this Winter are very interesting indeed even if none of it is ever happening as they show. It's nice to see all the blues and not oranges.

nacho libre

Lets see if we can make it three for three in the morning.

Kermit.de.frog

I have a feeling those height rises to our north between around day 6 and 7 in the GIN corridor are going to have a profound effect going forward. The ticket to an easterly or northeasterly?

I agree with Gonzo, some interesting days ahead.

Gonzo

pauldry wrote: »

Just when I got off the rollercoaster I have to go back on again.

The weather charts this Winter are very interesting indeed even if none of it is ever happening as they show. It's nice to see all the blues and not oranges.

Some difference between this winter and last winter even if we haven't had much snow to show for it. Not a flake of snow here last winter between 1 December and 28 February. I only saw a frost on 3 or 4 mornings throughout the entire winter.

Reversal

NOAA 500mb outlook trending in the right direction today with more pronounced ridging into the GIN corridor, and a much slacker westerly upper flow over us, that is slightly N of W, than has shown for the last few days. And now more pronounced trough into Europe.

That's said still a quite a strong westerly upper flow not too far south of us, so battle ground scenario not out if the question yet.

nacho libre

This is crazy

Gonzo

tonight's ensembles really show that beyond 4 days everything is up in the air, so much uncertainty with only maximum 96 hours of reliable time frame. Everything from another beast to blowtorch southwesterlies, high pressure, no mans land and atlantic driven rubbish is on the table.

All the scatter in the models usually show up after days 7 or 8, but right now it's after day 4.



What will tomorrow bring? hopefully more upgrades for cold and snow, however it could easily go wrong for us and be left high and dry.

JCX BXC

At this stage even I am getting weary from this.

Fecking charts! Can't even get as excited as I used to. It's like a dog running after its tail!

Hopefully these nice looking runs continue, however, I'm not sure I'll even be disappointed if not!

JCX BXC

JCX BXC wrote: »

At this stage even I am getting weary from this.

Fecking charts! Can't even get as excited as I used to. It's like a dog running after its tail!

Hopefully these nice looking runs continue, however, I'm not sure I'll even be disappointed if not!

The prospects for winter seems to be governed by high pressure and warmth across Mediterranean Europe
Its persistent and sufficient enough to prevent the jet at any time digging too far south
While it's there,it's groundhog day,what we've seen so far is going to be repeated
If you see nirvana in charts,you will see that outcome in reality verify several 100 Mile's north of Scotland again and again
I see no sign of the southern Europe cock block relenting and don't know why its there tbh but it is and it's persistent presence is effectively winding down the clock

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

tonight's ensembles really show that beyond 4 days everything is up in the air, so much uncertainty with only maximum 96 hours of reliable time frame. Everything from another beast to blowtorch southwesterlies, high pressure, no mans land and atlantic driven rubbish is on the table.

All the scatter in the models usually show up after days 7 or 8, but right now it's after day 4.



What will tomorrow bring? hopefully more upgrades for cold and snow, however it could easily go wrong for us and be left high and dry.

I have a feeling with so much scatter we will end up with a continuation of what we have had so far as opposed to what the charts were showing last night. We are just not seeing the consistency in model output that we saw prior to previous deep cold outbreaks.

Reckless Abandonment

Looking at the lasted gfs ireland and uk are right on the edge of warm and cold air The Scottish mountains must be buried in it ..

TheMilkyPirate

I think we are primed for a proper battleground event in February.

nacho libre

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

I think we are primed for a proper battleground event in February.

I still remain optimistic we will get a good snowfall at some stage from a slider event. It does seem like we will have weak heights to the north of us as per the UKMO guidance, so hopefully colder air at some point will dig far enough south that we get an all snow event from an approaching Atlantic system.

Tyrone212

nacho libre wrote: »

I still remain optimistic we will get a good snowfall at some stage from a slider event. It does seem like we will have weak heights to the north of us as per the UKMO guidance, so hopefully colder air at some point will dig far enough south that we get an all snow event from an approaching Atlantic system.

Sunday?

pauldry

Maybe for Northern Ireland but sleet further South and rain for the Southern half of Ireland is the forecast so far

pad199207

pauldry wrote: »

Maybe for Northern Ireland but sleet further South and rain for the Southern half of Ireland is the forecast so far

An absolute dire day basically. Unless things drastically change and we end up with a winter wonderland.

Nqp15hhu

The GFS actually forecasts snow for Northern Ireland on Saturday too.

Latest forecast is poor for me anyway, all the snow breaks up.

nacho libre

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Sunday?

I was more so thinking further on. If Sunday looked promising you would have seen posts in the t120 thread this morning. It may still upgrade in the next day or two, but it usually goes the other way.

sicknotexi

nacho libre wrote: »

I was more so thinking further on. If Sunday looked promising you would have seen posts in the t120 thread this morning. It may still upgrade in the next day or two, but it usually goes the other way.

Met Eireann have snow graphic over east of country for Sunday. Yesterday they had mild for everywhere but the North on Sunday. Big upgrade there and time for it to improve further.

Gonzo

despite some peachy runs every few days, we are in the same cycle that we were a month ago. We are now at crunch time the clock is ticking and that Iberian high has perhaps stopped us enjoying a winter to remember for a long time, instead we have been in no man's land since December 24th with the odd glancing blow of cold. While Scotland has been just far enough north to enjoy a proper winter, their best winter since 2010. We on the other hand continue with this very tiring setup of cool and mild and very little wintryness away from high ground.

It does appear we are going around in circles, every day we get a hint that all models are lining up something interesting, they all drop it the next day and we're back to square one.

pauldry

Depressing times we live in.

However remember its a rollercoaster and Id be confident while we wont see prolonged cold we will get days like last Sunday morning that cheered up so many, in the next 6 weeks

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

despite some peachy runs every few days, we are in the same cycle that we were a month ago.

Yes, it's like groundhog day with the models. It seems the best we can hope for is some brief cold spells before the milder weather wins out again. I see this pattern persisting till late February, then perhaps a more sustained cold outbreak from the northeast leading into March.