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Property Market 2018

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    #3092
    beaz2018
    Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭beaz2018


    tigger123 wrote: »
    Assuming you can find somewhere to rent.

    and will the amount you pay in renting for a few more years not offset the loss in equity you might suffer if prices go down? And if so is the security of your own house not preferable to renting?


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    #3093
    matsy1
    Registered Users Posts: 175 ✭✭matsy1


    RayCun wrote: »
    what a house is worth is what people will pay for it.
    There's no such thing as a 450k house that is 'really' a 400k house (or vice versa)

    Is that not what I said? What you believe it's worth?


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    #3094
    Fol20
    Registered Users Posts: 3,623 ✭✭✭Fol20


    beaz2018 wrote: »
    and will the amount you pay in renting for a few more years not offset the loss in equity you might suffer if prices go down? And if so is the security of your own house not preferable to renting?

    it might or it might not, if you bought in 2008 for 5 years, you might might have paid rent of say 50-70k. Some people might have seen a equity decrease of circa 100-250k on a property so its a loss.. On the other hand if you bought in 2013 and you bought in 2018. You might be paying rent of lets say 70+k while if you bought in 2013 instead of rented, your equity would be up at least 100+k. No one has a glass ball so its impossible to say what will happen next. Its mainly luck of the draw if you get it at a good time.


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    #3095
    RayCun
    Registered Users Posts: 15,704 ✭✭✭✭RayCun


    matsy1 wrote: »
    Is that not what I said? What you believe it's worth?

    what somebody will pay for it


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    #3096
    Mickiemcfist
    Registered Users Posts: 1,585 ✭✭✭Mickiemcfist


    Fol20 wrote: »
    it might or it might not, if you bought in 2008 for 5 years, you might might have paid rent of say 50-70k. Some people might have seen a equity decrease of circa 100-250k on a property so its a loss.. On the other hand if you bought in 2013 and you bought in 2018. You might be paying rent of lets say 70+k while if you bought in 2013 instead of rented, your equity would be up at least 100+k. No one has a glass ball so its impossible to say what will happen next. Its mainly luck of the draw if you get it at a good time.

    Using your 2008 example, if you're still living there you would have paid 100-140k off your mortgage & your asset would be worth about the same as when purchased. So you're better off to the tune of what your rent in that decade would have been (in my case over the last 10 years - c.150k in rent)


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    #3097
    matsy1
    Registered Users Posts: 175 ✭✭matsy1


    RayCun wrote: »
    what somebody will pay for it

    What somebody will be pay for it means they think it's worth that. Thats why it's important to figure out how much YOU think it's worth.


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    #3098
    Moonjet
    Registered Users Posts: 236 ✭✭Moonjet


    Over the long term, buying property (even at the peak) leaves people in a better financial position than renting. This has always been the way throughout history, not just in Ireland. And it's not going to change any time soon. Especially with rents in the capital at all time highs with no signs of slowing down.
    This is not even taking into consideration the sh1te standard of rental property in Ireland. Old furniture, dirty carpets, draughty windows, mould, etc is all common. + You could pay the mortgage on a 3-bed semi-D for the rental price of a glorified garden shed.


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    #3099
    oceanman
    Registered Users Posts: 1,743 ✭✭✭oceanman


    Moonjet wrote: »
    Over the long term, buying property (even at the peak) leaves people in a better financial position than renting. This has always been the way throughout history, not just in Ireland. And it's not going to change any time soon. Especially with rents in the capital at all time highs with no signs of slowing down.
    This is not even taking into consideration the sh1te standard of rental property in Ireland. Old furniture, dirty carpets, draughty windows, mould, etc is all common. + You could pay the mortgage on a 3-bed semi-D for the rental price of a glorified garden shed.
    that's assuming you can get a mortgage in the first place...many can not.


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    #3100
    mkdon
    Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    oceanman wrote: »
    that's assuming you can get a mortgage in the first place...many can not.


    will the global recession happen in 2019? seems this will surely impact property prices in ireland ? and who knows the affect of brexit


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    #3101
    asteroids over berlin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,115 ✭✭✭asteroids over berlin


    brexit won't happen!


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    #3102
    zl1whqvjs75cdy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    mkdon wrote: »
    will the global recession happen in 2019? seems this will surely impact property prices in ireland ? and who knows the affect of brexit

    It'll affect the ability to get a mortgage even further. So this apparent glut of property that is going to fall into the market will have no buyers.


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    #3103
    NIMAN
    Registered Users Posts: 32,988 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »
    It'll affect the ability to get a mortgage even further. So this apparent glut of property that is going to fall into the market will have no buyers.

    Untrue.

    There are plenty of people out there cash rich, and they would love nothing more than the chance to snap up cheap property around Dublin, Galway, Cork etc in the next recession, whenever that may be.

    The rich will get richer.


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    #3104
    zl1whqvjs75cdy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    NIMAN wrote: »
    Untrue.

    There are plenty of people out there cash rich, and they would love nothing more than the chance to snap up cheap property around Dublin, Galway, Cork etc in the next recession, whenever that may be.

    The rich will get richer.

    Don't know how many cash buyers are left but point taken. Wouldn't imagine that many ftb or people stuck in crap rental situations have cash to be dropping on houses though. Point being that a collapse akin to 2008 will not help Joe public. As you say, the rich would get richer.


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    #3105
    mkdon
    Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »
    Don't know how many cash buyers are left but point taken. Wouldn't imagine that many ftb or people stuck in crap rental situations have cash to be dropping on houses though. Point being that a collapse akin to 2008 will not help Joe public. As you say, the rich would get richer.

    but a small correction will help Joe public


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    #3106
    zl1whqvjs75cdy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    mkdon wrote: »
    but a small correction will help Joe public

    Yup probably. Though it's a delicate balance. Say house prices drop 5%. Does that damage the builders margin so much that he/she stops building? Would probably end in more government intervention. Though I'm yet to see concrete (excuse the pun) figures on how much it costs to build including land costs.


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    #3107
    OEP
    Registered Users Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭OEP


    We're not going to get a crash like the last one anytime soon - that was the worst in history. We don't have a credit bubble like we did then, which was the main reason while things went bust. There will be a correction at some point, maybe more akin to the dot com bubble than 2008.


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    #3108
    OEP
    Registered Users Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭OEP


    OEP wrote: »
    We're not going to get a crash like the last one anytime soon - that was the worst in history. We don't have a credit bubble like we did then, which was the main reason while things went bust. There will be a correction at some point, maybe more akin to the dot com bubble than 2008.

    Maybe a hard Brexit!


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    #3109
    Fol20
    Registered Users Posts: 3,623 ✭✭✭Fol20


    Mickiemcfist wrote: »
    Using your 2008 example, if you're still living there you would have paid 100-140k off your mortgage & your asset would be worth about the same as when purchased. So you're better off to the tune of what your rent in that decade would have been (in my case over the last 10 years - c.150k in rent)

    Well. What your not accounting for is maintenace of a property and upkeep costs which would be substantial. It also doesnt account for flexibility. How about as several experienced their home is no longer suitable for their family needs. Its hard to value these aspects but they also need to be takeb into account


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    #3110
    NIMAN
    Registered Users Posts: 32,988 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    The decision to abolish the height restrictions for new developments in all Irish cities will surely have an impact on the property market in Ireland.

    And about time.


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    #3111
    Mickiemcfist
    Registered Users Posts: 1,585 ✭✭✭Mickiemcfist


    Fol20 wrote: »
    Well. What your not accounting for is maintenace of a property and upkeep costs which would be substantial. It also doesnt account for flexibility. How about as several experienced their home is no longer suitable for their family needs. Its hard to value these aspects but they also need to be takeb into account

    If you're spending 10-14k on house maintenance per year, you bought a spectacularly bad house.

    Re freedom to move, you can always rent it out for more than the mortgage.


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    #3112
    zl1whqvjs75cdy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    Mickiemcfist wrote: »
    If you're spending 10-14k on house maintenance per year, you bought a spectacularly bad house.

    Re freedom to move, you can always rent it out for more than the mortgage.

    Agreed. First year of a second hand is normally a bit painful. After that it's just routine stuff. Boiler service, odd leaky slate etc.


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    #3113
    mkdon
    Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    NIMAN wrote: »
    The decision to abolish the height restrictions for new developments in all Irish cities will surely have an impact on the property market in Ireland.

    And about time.
    this was just announced today? definitely a long time coming

    but what is being built now that will have an impact in say next few months ?


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    #3114
    zl1whqvjs75cdy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    mkdon wrote: »
    this was just announced today? definitely a long time coming

    but what is being built now that will have an impact in say next few months ?

    Does it still leave it at the discretion of the councils though? All well and good abolishing restrictions but if DCC get all precious about the Georgian skyline it won't be worth the paper it's written on


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    #3115
    mkdon
    Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »
    Does it still leave it at the discretion of the councils though? All well and good abolishing restrictions but if DCC get all precious about the Georgian skyline it won't be worth the paper it's written on

    down in ifsc there is already multilpebuilding over 7 stories high

    what is the current restriction?


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    #3116
    Fol20
    Registered Users Posts: 3,623 ✭✭✭Fol20


    Mickiemcfist wrote: »
    If you're spending 10-14k on house maintenance per year, you bought a spectacularly bad house.

    Re freedom to move, you can always rent it out for more than the mortgage.

    Yes over the long term its better to own if you only stay in one place.

    I think your minimizing the other differences.some may want to buy another properry and depending on timing if they are in neg equity, it may bot be possible. Many dont want to be a ll. Theres is a lot more risks in being a ll and one bad tenant can takes years to pay back. Rent doesnt always cover rent. Right now and only for the past 2 years. It would cover it for the vast majority of ll but before then when rent was half yet you still had the same payments coupled with taxation. It did not cover it and you had to supplement your payment with your own job


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    #3117
    phunkadelic
    Registered Users Posts: 940 ✭✭✭phunkadelic


    phunkadelic wrote: »
    I'm noticing a fair slowdown in Dublin over the last few months. We have been looking solidly in North Dublin for the last 2 years. Same areas (D7, D9), same price limit (around €650k).
    In the first half of the year, all houses around our price were getting up to €50k over asking and there were other bidders outbidding us on all of them.
    But the 2nd half of the year we are seeing most houses not getting asking price. We are the highest bidder on 4 houses. We are not offering asking price, but not far off. No one else involved in bidding, but the sellers are holding out still. (EAs probably telling them it will pick up after the summer)

    It seems the banks have run out of exceptions to the central bank limits, and I believe that doesn't reset til January. Also, how many people can realistically afford €650k? Even if you had a deposit of 100k, you would need combined income of €157k (550k divided by 3.5).
    phunkadelic wrote: »
    Yep, the way it's heading we can play them off against each other
    phunkadelic wrote: »
    Well they are all genuine offers, if any of them would accept. I have no sympathy for gouging vendors. Cheered on by EAs, they are taking the p1ss with their asking prices.
    phunkadelic wrote: »
    The vendors are being greedy, holding out for more for months and months. It will blow up in 3 of their faces, but that's not my problem.
    It's up to one of them to take the substantial and reasonable offer.
    phunkadelic wrote: »
    There is no other interested parties. All 4 properties have been up for over 2 months. At some point they have to realise they are not getting any more.
    If we concentrated on one house only, and the bidding went out of our range, we could lose out on lots more properties in that time.
    phunkadelic wrote: »
    It might take time, but I am convinced that one of them will accept an offer in the next month, once they realise the slowdown has kicked in.
    Update:my prediction came to fruition. Offer accepted on one of the properties within a few weeks of these posts. Offer was about 4% under asking price. We used the accepted offer and went back to another of the properties, and they then accepted the offer (15% under asking price) on their property. We mulled it over for a few days and went for the one that was first accepted.
    We are now contracts signed and exchanged.
    The other 3 properties are all still sitting on daft and will be for the foreseeable, and I have no sympathy for them.


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    #3118
    mkdon
    Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    phunkadelic wrote: »
    Update:my prediction came to fruition. Offer accepted on one of the properties within a few weeks of these posts. Offer was about 4% under asking price. We used the accepted offer and went back to another of the properties, and they then accepted the offer (15% under asking price) on their property. We mulled it over for a few days and went for the one that was first accepted.
    We are now contracts signed and exchanged.
    The other 3 properties are all still sitting on daft and will be for the foreseeable, and I have no sympathy for them.

    congrats

    I am in same boat

    no offers accepted but am only interested party and the vendors not accepting less than asking even though am close to asking

    I hope it blows up in their faces


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    #3119
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,672 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    mkdon wrote: »
    congrats

    I am in same boat

    no offers accepted but am only interested party and the vendors not accepting less than asking even though am close to asking

    I hope it blows up in their faces

    It’ll blow up in someone’s I suppose yours or there’s


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    #3120
    mkdon
    Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    Cyrus wrote: »
    It’ll blow up in someone’s I suppose yours or there’s

    well it won't in mine if my offer is accepted as it's low balling the asking prices


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    #3121
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    tigger123 wrote: »
    smurgen wrote: »
    Global recession is coming. Irish workers have had their wages inflated due to the success of multinationals,this is in for a big correction in the next 12 months having began a few months ago. This will lead to a sharp drop in the property market prices in my opinion. The ECB and Fed have little or no tools to tackle this recession. The stock market leads the cycle,there’s absolute chaos coming down the tracks imo.

    How do you square your prediction of a drop in house prices in the next 12 months with the fact supply will not need demand in Ireland for at least another three years.

    And if there is a global turndown, it doesn't for one second mean that house prices will drop; there currently are not enough houses being built to meet demand. If there's a downturn, there will definitely not be enough housing stock built, which is only going to exasperate the situation.

    "And if there is a global turndown, it doesn't for one second mean that house prices will drop" one of the most stupid sentences in the thread yet


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