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Property Market 2018

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    #3062
    mkdon
    Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    smurgen wrote: »
    Eddie hobbs leveraged up in the last boom,he's an idiot.the real analysts do't have to sell over priced books and alot of the irish commentators like david mcwilliams are captain hindsights

    true but have not heard any predictions with brexit and global recession MNCs like Google cannot be taken for granted


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    #3063
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,702 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    mkdon wrote: »
    I have enquired about a fair amount houses recently that are on market for months

    surprisingly no offers on them

    seems there is gonna be lay offs for many EAs

    Yes probably because the houses are overpriced and the eas have chased the market up and are ahead of it once the price becomes sensible they will sell.


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    #3064
    mkdon
    Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    Cyrus wrote: »
    Yes probably because the houses are overpriced and the eas have chased the market up and are ahead of it once the price becomes sensible they will sell.

    true but EA s seem to be holding out hoping things will swing otherwise

    they are not considering offers under asking and still expected a 400k house to go for 450k .Madness


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    #3065
    tigger123
    Registered Users Posts: 4,446 ✭✭✭tigger123


    smurgen wrote: »
    Global recession is coming. Irish workers have had their wages inflated due to the success of multinationals,this is in for a big correction in the next 12 months having began a few months ago. This will lead to a sharp drop in the property market prices in my opinion. The ECB and Fed have little or no tools to tackle this recession. The stock market leads the cycle,there’s absolute chaos coming down the tracks imo.

    How do you square your prediction of a drop in house prices in the next 12 months with the fact supply will not need demand in Ireland for at least another three years.

    And if there is a global turndown, it doesn't for one second mean that house prices will drop; there currently are not enough houses being built to meet demand. If there's a downturn, there will definitely not be enough housing stock built, which is only going to exasperate the situation.


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    #3066
    tigger123
    Registered Users Posts: 4,446 ✭✭✭tigger123


    mkdon wrote: »
    true but EA s seem to be holding out hoping things will swing otherwise

    they are not considering offers under asking and still expected a 400k house to go for 450k .Madness

    Because of the mortgage bank rules we are now in a seasonal market. What's happening later on into the calendar year I don't think is representative of where things will be at in early Spring.

    Plus the market is starting to settle. They need to keep the CB rules in place, otherwise it will be bananas out there.


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    #3067
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    mkdon wrote: »
    true but EA s seem to be holding out hoping things will swing otherwise

    they are not considering offers under asking and still expected a 400k house to go for 450k .Madness

    To be fair to them, in the absence of enough €400k houses and supply not decreasing into 2019 they might well see €450k for houses deemed to be a €400k house.

    As we all know, in 2011 the €400k house was likely a €275k house.


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    #3068
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,513 ✭✭✭Villa05


    tigger123 wrote:
    How do you square your prediction of a drop in house prices in the next 12 months with the fact supply will not need demand in Ireland for at least another three years.


    I don't predict a drop in the next 12 months but to answer your question

    There is a big difference between general demand and demand that can afford current market prices. There in lies the reason for the slow down and eventually a potential collapse. Prices are unsustainable at current levels


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    #3069
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Until there's more houses available than couples on north of a combined €120k/year income to buy them current house prices for 3 beds etc won't be falling IMO.


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    #3070
    tigger123
    Registered Users Posts: 4,446 ✭✭✭tigger123


    Villa05 wrote: »
    I don't predict a drop in the next 12 months but to answer your question

    There is a big difference between general demand and demand that can afford current market prices. There in lies the reason for the slow down and eventually a potential collapse. Prices are unsustainable at current levels

    I think you're confusing two things to be honest.

    1) Yes, I agree with you that from a societal, social perspective, the current levels of house prices and increases are very damaging. What this is doing to people's lives, commutes, plans for the future, times spent with their families, mental health and general happiness is overwhelmingly negative, and nobody is winning here.

    2) However, on the other hand the market (unfortunately) can and will bear this situation continuing into the foreseeable future. People continue to put their houses up for sale, there's a mad scramble by potential buyers, one person wins the bidding war and a bank gives them a mortgage. People in this market can afford what's going on sale but the rate of increase in prices will inevitably slow down. A vast majority of properties are finding a buyer.

    What people are (correctly IMO) becoming frustrated with is that we, as a society, are allowing and facilitating the situation in point 1) to continue. There's nothing fundamentally about the market as outlined in point 2) that means prices are going to fall (even though the rate of increase is slowing).

    TLDR, the market is operating perfectly well with no regard to what damage it's causing to society as a whole.


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    #3071
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,702 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    mkdon wrote: »
    true but EA s seem to be holding out hoping things will swing otherwise

    they are not considering offers under asking and still expected a 400k house to go for 450k .Madness

    EAs want houses sold, its the vendors driving this


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    #3072
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,702 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Prices are unsustainable at current levels

    why?


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    #3073
    Moonjet
    Registered Users Posts: 236 ✭✭Moonjet


    Cyrus wrote: »
    why?


    They are sustainable at current levels, however the rate of double-digit % increases every year was unsustainable. A lot of that was a correction from property market overshooting the dip in 2012. Then supply shortage over last number of years. This is (slowly) being addressed by government so sale prices at current levels would be fine so long as employment/wages/economy slowly improves and income taxes come down in the next few budgets.


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    #3074
    mkdon
    Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    Cyrus wrote: »
    EAs want houses sold, its the vendors driving this


    EA s refusing to drop prices when there are zero offers for.months ...


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    #3075
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    mkdon wrote: »
    EA s refusing to drop prices when there are zero offers for.months ...

    EAs don't set prices or agree drops.


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    #3076
    UsBus
    Registered Users Posts: 1,390 ✭✭✭UsBus


    Moonjet wrote: »
    That's some crystal ball you have there. Any chance of this Saturdays Lotto numbers?

    No crystal ball needed. First signs of inverted yield curve in US bond markets. Every recession for the last 60 years has been preceded by this.

    If this worsens, sentiment will kick in and recession will follow. Btw, lack of housing supply in Ireland won't be an issue in a global recession, there will be a glut of properties available if a sell off begins..


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    #3077
    zl1whqvjs75cdy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    UsBus wrote: »
    No crystal ball needed. First signs of inverted yield curve in US bond markets. Every recession for the last 60 years has been preceded by this.

    If this worsens, sentiment will kick in and recession will follow. Btw, lack of housing supply in Ireland won't be an issue in a global recession, there will be a glut of properties available if a sell off begins..

    But why would anyone sell. If there's a global recession there's no where to go. UK is in turmoil with brexit, US immigration is now questionable and Australia is heading for a large correction. These typical safe havens for Irish on the move won't be there. Plus there's a lot of slack in the construction industry at the moment, if people want work in it they'll get it. Even with a recession we'd still need 15 k plus homes a year to cope with the predicted population increase so the drive to leave won't be as strong.

    We are exposed to recession but I just don't see a massive firesale of property this time around.


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    #3078
    Moonjet
    Registered Users Posts: 236 ✭✭Moonjet


    UsBus wrote: »
    No crystal ball needed. First signs of inverted yield curve in US bond markets. Every recession for the last 60 years has been preceded by this.

    If this worsens, sentiment will kick in and recession will follow. Btw, lack of housing supply in Ireland won't be an issue in a global recession, there will be a glut of properties available if a sell off begins..


    Why would a global recession result in Irish people selling their properties? If you mean the foreign investment funds, how much of the Irish property market do you think they own? Property prices crashed from 2008-2012 because the market was starved of credit, unemployment hit 15% and we experienced mass emigration - not because of a sell-off. The only sell-off that happened was apartment blocks and ghost estates in the middle of nowhere to NAMA.


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    #3079
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,702 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Graham wrote: »
    EAs don't set prices or agree drops.

    exactly this, EAs facilitate sales thats it

    they arent some evil overlord class

    EAs are more likely to desire a high amount of sales rather than increasing prices, the marginal gain to them of increased prices is less important than the sale itself


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    #3080
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,702 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    UsBus wrote: »
    , there will be a glut of properties available if a sell off begins..

    people have to live somewhere, so no there wont.


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    #3081
    RayCun
    Registered Users Posts: 15,704 ✭✭✭✭RayCun


    UsBus wrote: »
    Btw, lack of housing supply in Ireland won't be an issue in a global recession, there will be a glut of properties available if a sell off begins..

    But incomes will be down and banks won't be lending...
    donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »
    Even with a recession we'd still need 15 k plus homes a year to cope with the predicted population increase so the drive to leave won't be as strong.

    But we won't get that population increase if there's a recession. People come here, or stay here, because there are jobs. If there are no jobs there will be fewer people


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    #3082
    Moonjet
    Registered Users Posts: 236 ✭✭Moonjet


    RayCun wrote: »
    But incomes will be down and banks won't be lending...



    But we won't get that population increase if there's a recession. People come here, or stay here, because there are jobs. If there are no jobs there will be fewer people


    Where will the jobs be?
    I agree there is likely a recession (defined by 2 quarters of negative economic growth) coming down the tracks, but it will be nothing on the scale of 2008. That was a once in a century catastrophe of which had never been seen by anyone alive in 2008, and will likely never see again - it's not the standard for recessions. It's the 1 most fresh in the public's minds so that's what they expect. Lessons have been learned from 2008 by world governments and banks, especially around overleveraging on property.


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    #3083
    matsy1
    Registered Users Posts: 175 ✭✭matsy1


    Cyrus wrote: »
    They already have in Dublin

    I know. I have mentioned this in nearly all my posts.

    But its a slow down, so buyers should put a price on what they honestly believe the house is worth.

    If a house to me is worth 450k but was advertised at 420k it's probably a tactic by the EA to create a bidding war to hopefully get over 450k. Same applies if advertised at 480k, highest low ball offer maybe over 450k.

    Just put your own value on the house based on what you want, and can afford.

    What's has been happening is buyers have been falling in love with properties and bidding wars begin and the house is bought for a lot more than it was worth, then the value of the next similar house is increased based on the last sell.

    I think part of the slow down is because Dublin is running out of people who can afford to overspend on properties and the banks have learned their lessons and only loan to what you can afford. But let's wait until January, February when the exceptions start..


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    #3084
    mkdon
    Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    Henbabani wrote: »
    "[font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]According to the MyHome study, asking prices fell back 1 per cent nationally during the final three months of last year and by 0.4 per cent in Dublin. Over the year, prices were up 11.1 per cent in Dublin with the median price standing at €330,000 at the end of the fourth quarter compared with €195,000 outside of the capital."[/font]
    [font=Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif]Even in Dublin the prices are started to fell back.[/font]


    what source is this


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    #3085
    RayCun
    Registered Users Posts: 15,704 ✭✭✭✭RayCun


    matsy1 wrote: »
    But its a slow down, so buyers should put a price on what they honestly believe the house is worth.

    what a house is worth is what people will pay for it.
    There's no such thing as a 450k house that is 'really' a 400k house (or vice versa)


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    #3086
    RayCun
    Registered Users Posts: 15,704 ✭✭✭✭RayCun


    Moonjet wrote: »
    Where will the jobs be?

    where were the jobs in 2009?


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    #3087
    beaz2018
    Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭beaz2018


    RayCun wrote: »
    what a house is worth is what people will pay for it.
    There's no such thing as a 450k house that is 'really' a 400k house (or vice versa)

    Exactly. And everyone's valuation is different. I may place a high value on being close to town or good schools but others might value a bigger garden.


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    #3088
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,702 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    mkdon wrote: »
    what source is this

    its says in the post, its from myhome, but people need to stop focusing on asking prices, the hard data is on the PPR.


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    #3089
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    There is little to no headroom left in the market to increase. Income to loan rules will insure that. The average wage will not increase by a large margin therefore the averge house price cannot either. That's what the rules are there for. There are significant risks to the global economy on top of the risks to the Irish economy in particular. At best we will see marginal growth in house prices at worst we could have another 2008 on our hands. Now is not the time to buy a house. Too much uncertainty.


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    #3090
    zl1whqvjs75cdy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    dor843088 wrote: »
    There is little to no headroom left in the market to increase. Income to loan rules will insure that. The average wage will not increase by a large margin therefore the averge house price cannot either. That's what the rules are there for. There are significant risks to the global economy on top of the risks to the Irish economy in particular. At best we will see marginal growth in house prices at worst we could have another 2008 on our hands. Now is not the time to buy a house. Too much uncertainty.

    So the other solution is to pay extortionate rent that is way higher than any mortgage? You have to live somewhere and we can't all move back in with the folks.


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    #3091
    tigger123
    Registered Users Posts: 4,446 ✭✭✭tigger123


    donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »
    So the other solution is to pay extortionate rent that is way higher than any mortgage? You have to live somewhere and we can't all move back in with the folks.

    Assuming you can find somewhere to rent.


This discussion has been closed.
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