Property Market 2018

mariaalice · 06-12-2018 9:43am

Something people are forgetting as well, very few people have to sell, so if there was a correction or even just a leveling off the seller of the 3 bed who was hoping to move to a 4 bed could decide the 3 bed is a bit tight but its fine thus reducing the amount of properties for sale.

awec · 06-12-2018 9:49am

One of two things will cause a price drop of any real significance (I am not talking about when 500k houses start going for 490k instead before going back up again a few months later):

1. A large oversupply of property in the market.
2. A large drop in credit, driving down the number of available buyers.

For #1 to happen, we'd need to start building a LOT of property. Realistically, we're many years away from this.

If #2 happens, house prices will come down, but they are coming down because banks aren't lending. The real winners in this scenario are cash buyers and investors, they'll be the ones picking up bargains. People who need mortgages end up getting whacked, because while the house they are looking at might drop from 500k to 400k, the bank will now only lend them 250k instead of the 350k they were promised before, so they still can't afford it.

ELM327 · 06-12-2018 9:50am

Villa05 wrote: »

Increasing supply where there is an imbalance is responding to market forces. Is that lefty?

The question was what impact would an increase in rental property have on sale markets.
How does increasing supply of rental property impact on sale prices of houses?

06-12-2018 9:51am

As much as supply is constrained at the moment the actual number of sales from 2008 to 2012 were tiny.

If the market collapses ( !!!! ) there'll be very little bought again IMO.

Cyrus · 06-12-2018 9:56am

mkdon wrote: »

a drop off is as likely as an increase at the end of day no-one knows

its not really, not a material one in any event.

personally i dont care one way or the other, i bought a house 2 years ago, in my desired location, of a size that will do me and my family forever and i can afford it. i wont every buy a second property unless im selling this one, its not an asset to me, its a place to live.

i just dont see any complelling argument for prices falling.

more likely we will see steady growth in line with wage inflation (as peoples borrowing capacity increases)

Villa05 · 06-12-2018 1:33pm

ELM327 wrote:

The question was what impact would an increase in rental property have on sale markets. How does increasing supply of rental property impact on sale prices of houses?

See paragraph 1 and 2 on post 3014

ELM327 · 06-12-2018 3:54pm

Villa05 wrote: »

See paragraph 1 and 2 on post 3014

The below? Based on what corelation? Remember now, this is a new rental property built as such with no impact on available property for sale.

There would be no impact on the property market. Rent prices may drop due to increased supply but it may just meet pent up demand and plateau the rental market instead of making rent prices drop.

Villa05 wrote: »

Rent and property prices would return to affordable/sustainable levels

Balancing supply and demand would prevent the type of crash that happened in 08 to 12

aloooof · 06-12-2018 4:03pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Remember now, this is a new rental property built as such with no impact on available property for sale.

Imo, this assumption you are making is incorrect.

RayCun · 06-12-2018 4:12pm

ELM327 wrote: »

The question was what impact would an increase in rental property have on sale markets.
How does increasing supply of rental property impact on sale prices of houses?

if you build 500 apartments for rent in Dublin
-> the cost of renting apartments comes down (which also means the cost of renting houses comes down)
-> the cost of buying apartments comes down (because when the rent:mortgage ratio changes, some people decide to continue renting instead of buying, and buying to rent becomes less attractive)
-> the cost of buying houses comes down (because with apartments cheaper, some people will buy apartments rather than houses)

obviously this all happens at the margin. Maybe 500 apartments doesn't make prices go down, just slows the rate of increase, and it would take 5000 new rental apartments to actually reduce prices. But it is pushing in the direction of lower prices for accommodation, including houses

kippy · 06-12-2018 5:06pm

RayCun wrote: »

if you build 500 apartments for rent in Dublin
-> the cost of renting apartments comes down (which also means the cost of renting houses comes down)
-> the cost of buying apartments comes down (because when the rent:mortgage ratio changes, some people decide to continue renting instead of buying, and buying to rent becomes less attractive)
-> the cost of buying houses comes down (because with apartments cheaper, some people will buy apartments rather than houses)

obviously this all happens at the margin. Maybe 500 apartments doesn't make prices go down, just slows the rate of increase, and it would take 5000 new rental apartments to actually reduce prices. But it is pushing in the direction of lower prices for accommodation, including houses

You make the assumption that this all happens without any change on the demand side.

RayCun · 06-12-2018 5:10pm

kippy wrote: »

You make the assumption that this all happens without any change on the demand side.

such as?

kippy · 06-12-2018 5:13pm

RayCun wrote: »

such as?

Population increase.

RayCun · 06-12-2018 5:19pm

kippy wrote: »

Population increase.

.

Maybe 500 apartments doesn't make prices go down, just slows the rate of increase, and it would take 5000 new rental apartments to actually reduce prices. But it is pushing in the direction of lower prices for accommodation, including houses

matsy1 · 06-12-2018 6:22pm

mkdon wrote: »

shoe is on other foot...seems you are the angry one that prices may be slowing...Ftbs aren't disparate I think many actually holding off for value in market

250k for clontarf 3 bed is unrealistic even if there was a correction but a drop off is as likely as an increase at the end of day no-one knows

No, I'm looking too. Trying to upgrade but like someone else said, difficult finding value in the market. It's pretty relative for me but I welcome the slow down, which is happening right now.

No one here is saying anything definitely is or isn't going to happen. Some posters are just using their intelligence to weigh up the odds of it happening or not, using data from previous crashes etc.

I was the one hoping for a housing crash in 2007, when it happened unfortunately I was made part time and the banks wouldn't entertain me, and when I did qualify in 2013 I was getting outbid by cash buyers, everytime!

So im not angry, im just trying to be a realist.

Sad to think how anyone could be angry of a slow down. It's good for the country.

Bluefoam · 06-12-2018 6:42pm

matsy1 wrote: »

mkdon wrote: »

shoe is on other foot...seems you are the angry one that prices may be slowing...Ftbs aren't disparate I think many actually holding off for value in market

250k for clontarf 3 bed is unrealistic even if there was a correction but a drop off is as likely as an increase at the end of day no-one knows

No, I'm looking too. Trying to upgrade but like someone else said, difficult finding value in the market. It's pretty relative for me but I welcome the slow down, which is happening right now.

No one here is saying anything definitely is or isn't going to happen. Some posters are just using their intelligence to weigh up the odds of it happening or not, using data from previous crashes etc.

I was the one hoping for a housing crash in 2007, when it happened unfortunately I was made part time and the banks wouldn't entertain me, and when I did qualify in 2013 I was getting outbid by cash buyers, everytime!

So im not angry, im just trying to be a realist.

Sad to think how anyone could be angry of a slow down. It's good for the country.

Why is it good for the country? It's good for those looking to get a cheaper property... Not necessarily for those who own property...

Graham · 06-12-2018 7:06pm

matsy1 wrote: »

I was the one hoping for a housing crash in 2007, when it happened unfortunately I was made part time and the banks wouldn't entertain me, and when I did qualify in 2013 I was getting outbid by cash buyers, everytime!

matsy1 wrote: »

Sad to think how anyone could be angry of a slow down. It's good for the country.

Last time there was a slowdown the banks weren't lending and you couldn't buy, as was the case for tens of thousands of others.

This is good for the country?

The_Conductor · 06-12-2018 7:17pm

Well- the number of people who discovered vast sums of money under their mattresses was remarkable!
A lot of the black economy that was prevalent in Ireland- was formalised- and in comparison to the other economies who had to be bailed out- Ireland quite simply did not have the tax evasion that even today is prevalent in places like Greece.

hmmm · 06-12-2018 9:02pm

Some people need to make up their mind. If you want to force small landlords out of the market with oppressive legislation, and you don't want corporates building apartments to let, where is our rental supply supposed to come from?

smurgen · 06-12-2018 10:18pm

kippy wrote: »

Obviously this would depend on the area you are in but I wouldn't expect prices to drop back in any way in the Dublin area or indeed any of the major cities. Why would they? Demand is still high and supply is low.

Global recession is coming. Irish workers have had their wages inflated due to the success of multinationals,this is in for a big correction in the next 12 months having began a few months ago. This will lead to a sharp drop in the property market prices in my opinion. The ECB and Fed have little or no tools to tackle this recession. The stock market leads the cycle,there’s absolute chaos coming down the tracks imo.

Moonjet · 06-12-2018 11:01pm

smurgen wrote: »

Global recession is coming. Irish workers have had their wages inflated due to the success of multinationals,this is in for a big correction in the next 12 months having began a few months ago. This will lead to a sharp drop in the property market prices in my opinion. The ECB and Fed have little or no tools to tackle this recession. The stock market leads the cycle,there’s absolute chaos coming down the tracks imo.

That's some crystal ball you have there. Any chance of this Saturdays Lotto numbers?

dor843088 · 06-12-2018 11:24pm

Moonjet wrote: »

That's some crystal ball you have there. Any chance of this Saturdays Lotto numbers?

Youv been making your own predictions here. And in fairness global outlook ain't so good. Australia China Japan America Canada Italy Britain Europe in general. All significant risks.

matsy1 · 06-12-2018 11:30pm

Graham wrote: »

Last time there was a slowdown the banks weren't lending and you couldn't buy, as was the case for tens of thousands of others.

This is good for the country?

When I say slow down I don't mean the arse to fall out of the housing market. I mean slow down and only raise normally with inflation the way it's supposed to.

smurgen · 06-12-2018 11:40pm

Moonjet wrote: »

smurgen wrote: »

Global recession is coming. Irish workers have had their wages inflated due to the success of multinationals,this is in for a big correction in the next 12 months having began a few months ago. This will lead to a sharp drop in the property market prices in my opinion. The ECB and Fed have little or no tools to tackle this recession. The stock market leads the cycle,there’s absolute chaos coming down the tracks imo.

That's some crystal ball you have there. Any chance of this Saturdays Lotto numbers?

You sound seriously aggrieved. Anything else to add?

matsy1 · 06-12-2018 11:41pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

Why is it good for the country? It's good for those looking to get a cheaper property... Not necessarily for those who own property...

If someone owns one property that they live in like me, why would I want my house aswell as others to raise so much that others in the country couldn't afford houses and homelessness to soar etc?

Maybe if my masterplan was to hope for it to keep rising and then emigrate to Thailand with the profit.

Yes it would be good for the country if house prices slowed down.

smurgen · 06-12-2018 11:43pm

dor843088 wrote: »

Moonjet wrote: »

That's some crystal ball you have there. Any chance of this Saturdays Lotto numbers?

Youv been making your own predictions here. And in fairness global outlook ain't so good. Australia China Japan America Canada Italy Britain Europe in general. All significant risks.

Manufacturing slowdown well underway and a bear market starting. Major hedge funds selling of equities and these fellas are always ahead of the curve.

mkdon · 06-12-2018 11:56pm

smurgen wrote: »

Manufacturing slowdown well underway and a bear market starting. Major hedge funds selling of equities and these fellas are always ahead of the curve.

interesting viewpoints ...don't see any of the so called experts predicting a downfall where are the Eddie Hobbs ilk

Graham · 07-12-2018 12:40am

smurgen wrote: »

Major hedge funds selling of equities and these fellas are always ahead of the curve.

I don't think they've been ahead of the curve since the global financial crisis.

Cyrus · 07-12-2018 8:21am

matsy1 wrote: »

Yes it would be good for the country if house prices slowed down.

They already have in Dublin

smurgen · 07-12-2018 9:09am

mkdon wrote: »

smurgen wrote: »

Manufacturing slowdown well underway and a bear market starting. Major hedge funds selling of equities and these fellas are always ahead of the curve.

interesting viewpoints ...don't see any of the so called experts predicting a downfall where are the Eddie Hobbs ilk

Eddie hobbs leveraged up in the last boom,he's an idiot.the real analysts do't have to sell over priced books and alot of the irish commentators like david mcwilliams are captain hindsights

mkdon · 07-12-2018 9:14am

Cyrus wrote: »

They already have in Dublin

I have enquired about a fair amount houses recently that are on market for months

surprisingly no offers on them

seems there is gonna be lay offs for many EAs

Property Market 2018

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