Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Slashermcguirk · 07-01-2021 4:11pm

Temp In Dublin seems to have only reached a high of 1-2 degrees this afternoon, Baltic out there

Meteorite58 · 07-01-2021 9:07pm

Will see how much wintry precipitation clips the E and mostly the SE tomorrow.

Meteorite58 · 07-01-2021 9:15pm

Looks like an extremely cold night Friday into Saturday.

Meteorite58 · 10-01-2021 9:20pm

Plenty of rain in the Northern half of the country especially the W and NW over the next few days.

Breezier then of late, bit windy on the coasts.

Mild air spreading in from the SW /W. NE remaining cold.

Donegal Ken · 10-01-2021 10:40pm

More than likely will see a status yellow rainfall warning issued for Tuesday for Northwestern counties.

Nqp15hhu · 11-01-2021 3:39pm

The Met Office says hill snow in Northern Ireland tonight, but soundings not looking too productive.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-01-2021 11:15pm

This system will have to be watched for Tuesday/Wednesday. It's being shifted ever further south and has snow potential on the northern flank

Some evolution to come here I suspect.

Gaoth Laidir · 16-01-2021 12:58am

Nah, for me no. It's a sloppy returning airmass that we'll have at that stage. No direct cold source. Lower levels should be too modified to produce anything of note imo.

Meteorite58 · 16-01-2021 11:58pm

ECM stalling and pivoting the front with following cold airmass on Weds on the latest run. UKMO has the front clearing to the S quicker. GFS does not develop the stalling front like the ECM and has it well cleared later Tues into early Weds which is the outlier here would reckon. UKMO showing very cold night Tues into Weds but this would be under clear skies for that to take place. Would have to lead with the ECM. Finely balanced atm, a few days out a long time yet to know with any certainty.

A lot of precipitation to fall between Mon and Thurs AM

Neddyusa · 17-01-2021 12:19am

Fair play Meteorite, at least you are in the right thread!
There's a lot of talk about this in the plus 120hr thread for some reason;)

The trend seems to be bringing this system further south as we get closer to the time, so if that keeps up it might only graze the Waterford and Wexford coasts

Meteorite58 · 17-01-2021 12:31am

Neddyusa wrote: »

Fair play Meteorite, at least you are in the right thread!
There's a lot of talk about this in the plus 120hr thread for some reason;)

The trend seems to be bringing this system further south as we get closer to the time, so if that keeps up it might only graze the Waterford and Wexford coasts

Ah its because it always seems so far away :pac:, this one is creeping up and intriguing but will it look anything like being shown on the current ECM run which is by far the biggest producer of snow. What will be the position of the front, will it stall as currently shown ??

nacho libre · 17-01-2021 1:54am

I have a feeling the GFS scenario will be the correct one.

Meteorite58 · 17-01-2021 8:59am

nacho libre wrote: »

I have a feeling the GFS scenario will be the correct one.

Well the ECM is looking a lot more like the GFS this morning nacho libre, GFS wasn't such an outlier after all it would seem. Big adjustment showing just a bit of wintry precipitation, less precipitation also although still quite wet over Mon and Tues and now clearing away quicker to the SE on Weds. Will see how it plays out.

sicknotexi · 17-01-2021 9:37am

All Wednesday's snow has disappeared on the ECM 00Z. Basically no snow for anyone out to 10 day.

Reversal · 17-01-2021 8:38pm

sicknotexi wrote: »

All Wednesday's snow has disappeared on the ECM 00Z. Basically no snow for anyone out to 10 day.

The 12z ECM has shifted It back north again. With the South East most likely to see some snow, even if it looks transient on this run. Clearly a lot of uncertainty still. Worth keeping any eye over the next few runs at least.

Gaoth Laidir · 17-01-2021 9:47pm

Reversal wrote: »

The 12z ECM has shifted It back north again. With the South East most likely to see some snow, even if it looks transient on this run. Clearly a lot of uncertainty still. Worth keeping any eye over the next few runs at least.

That would indicate high ground only, and I would agree.

Meteorite58 · 17-01-2021 10:02pm

Yeah ECM now much slower to clear the SE than the other models, not huge cold following but pressure is low . Other models showing wintry mix now also. Looks like wet snow if it falls at this stage, mostly wet sleety mix would reckon but will see as we get closer what are the chances of some proper snow accumulations.

Precipitation accumulations up again, warnings look likely.

Meteorite58 · 17-01-2021 10:06pm

Rough idea of rainfall accumulations.

Meteorite58 · 17-01-2021 10:24pm

Area of LP deepens over us and merges into other areas of LP and goes on to deepen down to about 958 hPa in the North Sea on Thurs and become very windy there for a time.

Kermit.de.frog · 17-01-2021 11:08pm

GFS starting to make a little more of the prospects through Leinster and Munster for some snow late afternoon/evening Wednesday.

Be an interesting one to watch.

72-574UK.GIF?17-18

Kermit.de.frog · 17-01-2021 11:37pm

I'm liking more and more the look of this orientation of these fronts.

May need a nice and reserved thread by tomorrow evening for developing snow potential on Wednesday

Gonzo · 17-01-2021 11:43pm

a week from now is also looking rather interesting for now.

156-574UK.GIF?17-18

Danno · 17-01-2021 11:43pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm liking more and more the look of this orientation of these fronts.

May need a nice and reserved thread by tomorrow evening for developing snow potential on Wednesday

Banking it! :eek:

Kermit.de.frog · 17-01-2021 11:45pm

pauldry · 18-01-2021 12:04am

Could be just a Sunday thing so everyone will be more excited for the week ahead. Again like the bad model runs it can all change but the general trend is the weather is getting colder and possibly much colder. Certainly different than the past few Winters

Danno · 18-01-2021 12:12am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That'll do frog, that'll do.

cherryghost · 18-01-2021 1:21am

I'd bank that any day at this stage but it looks very slushy wet at that point.

Kermit.de.frog · 18-01-2021 1:30am

Crucial thing for Dublin area is to nab that onshore wind in time. We may just make it.

This is evolving and the projected upper temperature profile is lowering with each run as well as the positioning of that chink in the frontal zone. Getting easily cold enough for a few hours of snow...

Davaeo09 · 18-01-2021 2:48am

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk
been watching this every night for the past 3 (re Wednesdays potential) and WOAH thats an upgrade tonight! Looking forward to MT's forecast the in the morning!
(or is this still too far out for reliability?)
Is it likely to change allot still?
With those above graphs is it most likely to be heaviest from the Midlands to the inland South East?

Also @ Kermit love the pic!

Kermit.de.frog · 18-01-2021 4:54am

Why thank you.

Just caught the latest GFS for this period and also ICON which is moving the same direction but not quite there yet. I'll do a thread for flooding and potentially heavy snowfall later this morning.

Snow most likely over east/southeast Leinster and Munster. Could be disruptive amounts for some.

66-574UK.GIF?18-0

18-01-2021 9:01am

Ah here now...

PukkaStukka · 18-01-2021 10:19am

G'wan the Frog !

KingdomRushed · 18-01-2021 10:52am

GFS 6z really downgrades the snow potential with the front further south on Wednesday.

munsterlegend · 18-01-2021 10:58am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

GFS 6z really downgrades the snow potential with the front further south on Wednesday.

Can’t see anything except for high ground as in hills/mountains.

nacho libre · 18-01-2021 5:40pm

Could be wintry enough at times this weekend according to the latest GFS

Gonzo · 18-01-2021 9:05pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Could be wintry enough at times this weekend according to the latest GFS

yep looks fairly wintry over all parts of the country from Friday and into the weekend, most of it marginal with a mixture of cold rain, sleet and wet snow. Hopefully a few places will get a dusting out of it.

102-574UK.GIF?18-12

If this verifies it could be more snow falling than what we've seen over the past 2 winters combined but no guarantee there will be lying snow away from high ground.

The GFS para is a bit more generous with snow cover across the country but not much more than a dusting to illustrate that any potential lying snow will melt away during daylight hours.

162-780PUK.GIF?18-12

Nqp15hhu · 20-01-2021 1:25pm

The models are looking very good for low level snow in Ulster from Friday, possibly Thursday.

Freezing levels <500 metres from Friday early hours.

Dew Points are negative on Friday also.

Snow showers hugging the north and north west coasts.

Similar, if not heavier snow showers on Saturday.

So looking good for some low level snow in Ulster (Northern and Western) on Friday and Saturday, this time it is not looking marginal.

Meteorite58 · 20-01-2021 9:21pm

Possibly better chances of some snow in the coming days more so from showers straying in off the coasts but could have a few more organised bands from troughs as it becomes increasingly colder, ECM showing Sat evening into Sun as good potential from what looks like an occluded front or trough activity or both., currently showing the Northern half of the country but that is only a rough guide at present would think, good cold 850 hPa's showing up especially over the weekend. Watching out for Ninja snow could be a bit of crack.

Cold frosty nights in store for many in off the coasts.

Meteorite58 · 24-01-2021 3:24pm

Turning milder and wetter as the week goes on. Early Thurs looks like getting windy in the SW and blustery wet weather spreading up over the country .

Donegal Ken · 25-01-2021 11:31am

Possibly some snow for higher parts of Ulster tonight and for a time Tuesday morning with the freezing level around 500 to 600 metres for a time in places. Most places will be a mix of sleet, wet snow and rain.

Nqp15hhu · 25-01-2021 7:37pm

Is that a snow event I see for Friday in Ulster? Please! We deserve it! (Well...not south Ulster)

Donegal Ken · 25-01-2021 7:46pm

Status Yellow - Snow/Ice warning for Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal and Leitrim
Met Éireann Weather Warning

Falls of sleet and snow. Icy and hazardous conditions.

Valid: 00:01 Tuesday 26/01/2021 to 09:00 Tuesday 26/01/2021

Issued: 18:00 Monday 25/01/2021

Meteorite58 · 25-01-2021 8:26pm

Donegal Ken wrote: »

Possibly some snow for higher parts of Ulster tonight and for a time Tuesday morning with the freezing level around 500 to 600 metres for a time in places. Most places will be a mix of sleet, wet snow and rain.

Looks very wintry in Northern counties all right, some places especially high ground could get a good dump of snow.

Meteorite58 · 26-01-2021 9:30pm

Wet week in store. Not as windy on Thurs as previous runs, some models showing possibly getting windy in the SW or W early Fri morning, in general nothing too strong at the moment, maybe a bit strong on coasts for a time.

After a couple of milder days getting colder again during the weekend more so in the Northern half of the country. Models showing a deep area of LP moving into the cold air around Sunday as other posters have pointed out, showing this for a few runs now. ECM showing a big dump of snow in Northern counties, all the main models showing wintry precipitation but far too early to know if it will happen. Showing it to be windy on Sunday and stronger winds again on Monday but that is straying past +120 hrs but all connected to the area of LP. Looks like heavy precipitation over the weekend.

nacho libre · 26-01-2021 9:43pm

It's just a pity that low can't stall and slowly head south east as it crosses over us.

Meteorite58 · 26-01-2021 9:48pm

nacho libre wrote: »

It's just a pity that low can't stall and slowly head south east as it crosses over us.

Would have a tendency to drift further North I suppose but you would never know

Artane2002 · 26-01-2021 10:51pm

the ICON brings more of the west in play this time, with the onshore breeze being more problematic for the east, penetrating further inland than what was being shown earlier. the rain for the rest looks heavy, particularly in the south. we don't exactly need more rain!

Meteorite58 · 27-01-2021 10:07pm

Lp's close by and their associated fronts making inroads across the country over the weekend . Models differ quiet a bit at the moment, even more so than yesterday, ECM still showing fronts coming up against cold air and wintry precipitation along with heavier rainfalls possible. Marginal as ever and would not like to call it. ECM showing the N half of the country getting the most wintry weather atm but would really have to see how this evolves over the next couple of days.

Windy at times over the weekend but not as strong as earlier runs.

Gonzo · 27-01-2021 10:26pm

there is a slight chance that Saturdays rain event could turn to sleet or wet snow on the back edge as it clear's south-eastwards over Leinster, however the tracking of this is not locked in yet and the precipitation may be pushed further south, leaving many areas rather dry.

Arpege currently has this only extending into the southern third of the country. Majority of the models has cold rain across the country with snow confined to high ground. A Chance of sleet/snow in Donegal and Monaghan perhaps.

Nqp15hhu · 27-01-2021 10:47pm

The 18Z ICON has the cold air hanging on to Monday at least.

Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST