GAA Betting

joecass123 wrote: »

I don't see how stats dating back to 1992 are relevant? They're 2 completely different teams?

If you read the thread then you would see that I made no claim that previous results are relevant to handicapping the 2018 teams.

The point was simple - Mayo V Galway in the Connacht Championship is always a 50/50 game. The last 20 results was merely to illustrate that there have been no long term dominance by one team over the other and that a 4 point win one year can swing around the other way the next.

-Both teams are Division 1 though Galway had a better league this year.
-Mayo have been one of the most consistent teams in the country over the last 20 years Galway are "coming" once again.
-Even when looking at current year form - this fixture has historically been very close, I suppose its something not necessarily quantifiable and the "underdogs" have almost always raised their game.
Its not as if we're looking at Mayo V leitrim where its Division 1 V Division 4.
I have very very rarely seen what I would consider a well priced favourite for Gaelic Football games but underdogs are often well priced.

In Connacht alone - Roscommon/Sligo in 2010 where the prices were 1/4 Sligo and 4/1 Roscommon because Sligo had beaten Mayo and Galway and Roscommon had been relegated. Daragh O Se wrote before the game that it was a ridiculous price and made a nice profit on it.

In 2016 Roscommon were 4/7 V 7/4 Galway in the Connacht final - again a silly price based on Roscommon winning a few games in D1 V Galway remaining in D2. To me it was a 50/50 game but would have priced it 20/21 --7/1 -- 21/20. As it happens it was a draw and I didn't have a saver bet on the draw but I did make it into the black by repeating the bet for the replay.

Yet a year later the prices were reversed Roscommon losing all bar the last game in D1 while Galway won D2. I backed Roscommon - not because I was convinced they'd win, merely that it should have been a 50/50 (or 11/10 v 10/11 or similar)

Mt Sion @ 13/8 in Waterford club championship worth a shout at that pricr

I think the tipp team is fairly strong, apart from the injuries not many on the bench would make the team stronger, I've taken tipp - 3.

Don’t see an edge today. Bit disappointed by limerick performance v Clare, only kept in it by sheer wastefulness of the opposition. Could surprise me today so happy to leave well enough alone.

Same As wrote: »

31/3 Jennings Recommendations

Laois -2
2pts 6-5 general

Laois over 1.5 goals
1pt 2-1 Paddy Power

Down -2
3pts 10-11 Hills

Meath -6
3pts 11-10 BoyleSports

Fermanagh -1
1pt 3-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Interested in his predictions for tomorrow as I missed these today - what time does he release them and where does he post them - I really appreciate that you post them - thanks for all your hard work

PopePalpatine wrote: »

They're in the Racing Post, and they're usually on the site by 8pm the day before the matches.

Excellent - thanks a million - have a bet on Roscommon to win Division 2 from the start of the league and interested to see if he thinks they will win tomorrow?

+6.43 today, will update outrights and p/l tomorrow night

Jennings 1/4 recommendations

No Galway goal
2pts 6-5 BoyleSports

Dean Rock to score over 6.5 points
3pts 4-5 BoyleSports

Johnny Cooper to score over 0.5 points
1pts 13-8 BoyleSports

Roscommon -1
2pts 10-11 general

Cavan under 17.5 points
3pts 4-5 BoyleSports

No Cavan goal
2pts 15-8 BoyleSports

cavan no goal is 2/1 if u take the exact cavan goals market instead,

Like the wexford u2.5 punt.

Wouldnt be taking that cavan no goals bet. Ros are porous at the back, tend to fall asleep in games and can be poor with high balls into back line. McKiernan will do damage if in there. That's from a Rossie fan who has them to win the division.

franglan wrote: »

Wouldnt be taking that cavan no goals bet. Ros are porous at the back, tend to fall asleep in games and can be poor with high balls into back line. McKiernan will do damage if in there. That's from a Rossie fan who has them to win the division.

You weren't wrong there. The defending is desperate.

spurshero wrote: »

Who got man of match in Dublin game please

Ciaran Kilkenny

Same As wrote: »

Jennings 1/4 recommendations

No Galway goal
2pts 6-5 BoyleSports +2.4

Dean Rock to score over 6.5 points
3pts 4-5 BoyleSports +2.40

Johnny Cooper to score over 0.5 points
1pts 13-8 BoyleSports -1

Roscommon -1
2pts 10-11 general +1.82

Cavan under 17.5 points
3pts 4-5 BoyleSports -3

No Cavan goal
2pts 15-8 BoyleSports -2

Same As wrote: »

Jennings Outright Selections


NHL
Limerick to win Division 1
1pt 14-1 bet365 - -1

Limerick to top Division 1B
2pts 7-2 BoyleSports +7

NFL
Tyrone to win Division 1
1pt 15-2 Paddy Power -1

Donegal to relegated from Division 1
2pts 15-8 Paddy Power +3.75

Roscommon to win Division 2
2pts 7-2 Hills +7

Fermanagh to win Division 3
1pt 7-1 bet365 -1

+0.62 today,+7.05 for the weekend and +41.62 YTD including all outright selections mentioned in #8104 (all now updated above). He's motoring very nicely alright.

robbiezero wrote: »

Any weather update from Wexford. Am tempted by the under 46.5 points down there today if it is raining.
The last 3 games in league and championship between these 2 have not gone over 43 points.

had a cut at it. well beaten. didn't see kk getting 1-27 today. wexford surprisingly very poor.

kk at 9/4 in final and +3 looks big in what to me is a 50/50 game.

robbiezero wrote: »

had a cut at it. well beaten. didn't see kk getting 1-27 today. wexford surprisingly very poor.

kk at 9/4 in final and +3 looks big in what to me is a 50/50 game.

Where are kk 9 to 4

In Mayo club football:

Castlebar 1/10
Breaffy 1/10
Aughamore 8/13.

Pays .95