GAA Betting

spurshero wrote: »

Not sure about the games themselves but there certainly better prices around . 8 to 11 Galway amd 4 to 6 Westmeath and that’s only after checking one bookie . P p . Important to get on at best price to have any chance

Ah I just picked Boyles as I'm not allowed bet with PP as I work for them.

Tipp v Dublin in the hurling.

Tipp were - 10 last week when the game was scheduled for parnell Park, they're - 9 now with the game in croker which will be better suited to the tipp players. Yeah they're not playing their strongest team but they still should have enough to get past the handicap imo.

If Tyrone can't beat a threadbare Kerry this weekend at home I'd be awfully surprised.

mjp wrote: »

Warning on Westmeath. They have made 7-8 changes from last week so look like they're giving fringe lads chance to stake place for championship team. Also missing John Heslin which is a big negative for me.

Offaly need to win to avoid relegation and looks like Westmeath have given up hope of slight chance they have of making final.

f

I’m an Offaly man. We are beyond useless.

At least if we are losing then I might aswell make a few bob while they are at it

BrianBoru00 wrote: »

Mayo are regressing for sure but Galway V Mayo is ALWAYS 50/50. And if they win they'll be against Roscommon and that's another 50/50. So even money twice works out at 3/1 which is the correct price really so unless you can get it at 7/2 I don't think its a particularly good bet

If Galway vs Mayo and Galway vs Roscommon is 50/50 does that mean Mayo vs Roscommon is 50/50? Should we be balls deep on Galway 15/8 vs Mayo?

BrianBoru00 wrote: »

Not really. Roscommon are reigning champions and if they play Galway it will be in Roscommon this year. The likelihood is they're going to be promoted this weekend to division 1 and even so Galway aren't going to be overwhelming favourites.

Like I said its still going to be a 50/50 game so I'd be expecting 11/10 v 10/11 or so.

Whoever wins between Galway or Mayo will be hot fav to beat ros with the bookies . Not saying that they will beat them but they will be favs . Sure ya can have 5 to 2 about ros to win Connacht and there more or less in final. Highly unlikely Sligo or Leitrim will beat them. They will be at least 7 to 4 to lift cup before final . That’s my opinion . Maybe I be wrong . We will have to wait and see

BrianBoru00 wrote: »

They were 7/4 last year, I backed them at those odds because it should have been a 50/50 game. The previous year they were favourites in the tie. Backed Roscommon to win Connacht @5/2 earlier in the year and I think its a good price because as you said its probably a 4/1 shot they lose in the semi final.

I'm not disputing Galway will be favourites but I think it'll be 10/11 favourites .

If I was pricing it - I'd be having the real odds to be 21/20 21/20 and 7/1.

You should back them now so at 3 to 1 in Boyles . Actually looks a big price to me . Because ros will be fresh in final while Galway v Mayo will be a battle . And ros will defo be in final .

I think the 'always a 50/50 game' is pub talk not betting talk. I'm sure the same was said many times over the years about Kerry vs Cork, Dublin vs Meath, Armagh vs Tyrone etc.

It's a sort of sentimental type of muggish analysis stuff that bookies love to hear. If two teams are 50/50 and one team lose their two best players it's not still 50/50 despite any perception of historical closeness in games between the teams. The odds are dependent on circumstances and if someone is trying to tell you that they remain the same despite the circumstances changing they are talking with something other than their head.

Don't waste your money betting based on 'rules of thumb' like this - they are not sensible and one of the many reasons for the 'no bookies on bikes' truism.

keane2097 wrote: »

I think the 'always a 50/50 game' is pub talk not betting talk. I'm sure the same was said many times over the years about Kerry vs Cork, Dublin vs Meath, Armagh vs Tyrone etc.

It's a sort of sentimental type of muggish analysis stuff that bookies love to hear. If two teams are 50/50 and one team lose their two best players it's not still 50/50 despite any perception of historical closeness in games between the teams. The odds are dependent on circumstances and if someone is trying to tell you that they remain the same despite the circumstances changing they are talking with something other than their head.

Don't waste your money betting based on 'rules of thumb' like this - they are not sensible and one of the many reasons for the 'no bookies on bikes' truism.

Its not pub talk.

These are the last 20 Connacht Championshipp meetings between the two sides. With the exception of 2013+2014 when Galway were 'transitioning' This has been a close tie. Take 1997+1998 - not sure which it was -I'd have to check notes and either McDonald hit the crossbar to put MAyo 4 up and the ball went down the other end and Declan Meehan goaled for Galway or vice versa (the memory is getting hazy) giving them a 4 point win in the end. In 95, Galway put it up to Tyrone in AISF then beaten by Mayo who lost final aft4er replay. The following year thy retained title and again in the final then Galway wena ll the way. All those games were extremely tight affairs.

So by "always 50/50" Im not basing on pub talk but simple analysis of previous results


1992 Draw, Mayo by 7
1993
1994
1995 Galway by 7
1996 Mayo by 4
1997 Mayo by 4
1998 Galway by 4
1999 Mayo by 4
2000 NA
2001
2002 Galway by 2
2003 Galway by 4
2004 Mayo by 6
2005 Galway by 2
2006 Mayo by 1
2007
2008 Galway by 1
2009 Mayo by 1
2010 NA
2011 Mayo by 6
2012 NA
2013 Mayo by 17
2014 Mayo by 7
2015 Mayo by 4
2016 Galway by 3
2017 Galway by 1

Are Mayo going to play any of the team from the 92 replay? That was a good win

Same As wrote: »

+17.47 so far this year, excluding outright selections in post #8104

Jennings Recommendations 25/3

Tyrone vs Kerry

Over 32.5 points
3pts Evs BoyleSports +3

Over 3.5 goals
1pt 5-1 BoyleSports -1

Donegal vs Mayo

Under 32.5 points
2pts Evs BoyleSports +2

No goals
1pt 9-2 BoyleSports +4.5

Kildare vs Galway

Kildare-Kildare double result
1pt 4-1 Betfair, Paddy Power -1

Meath vs Down

Meath -1
2pts 6-5 Betfair, Paddy Power +2.40

Meath over 17.5 points
2pts 11-10 Betfair, BoyleSports, Paddy Power +2.20

+12.1 points today, +29.57 for the year excluding outright selections mentioned in #8104

Outright Selections


NHL
Limerick to win Division 1
1pt 14-1 bet365 - Still Alive
Limerick to top Division 1B
2pts 7-2 BoyleSports +7

NFL
Tyrone to win Division 1
1pt 15-2 Paddy Power -1

Donegal to relegated from Division 1
2pts 15-8 Paddy Power +3.75

Roscommon to win Division 2
2pts 7-2 Hills Still Alive

Fermanagh to win Division 3
1pt 7-1 bet365 Still Alive


2018 P/L from settled selections: +39.32 - to be honest, the guy has gotten a lot of flack on this thread but that is a very impressive YTD figure.

akelly02 wrote: »

Westmeath at 4/6 is the best value I’ve seen in a long time they should be 2/7

Max max max bet

😂😂 Howd that bet go for you?. 😂😂 Dont doubt the faithful.. Uibh Fhaili Abu!!!

BrianBoru00 wrote: »

Its not pub talk.

These are the last 20 Connacht Championshipp meetings between the two sides. With the exception of 2013+2014 when Galway were 'transitioning' This has been a close tie. Take 1997+1998 - not sure which it was -I'd have to check notes and either McDonald hit the crossbar to put MAyo 4 up and the ball went down the other end and Declan Meehan goaled for Galway or vice versa (the memory is getting hazy) giving them a 4 point win in the end. In 95, Galway put it up to Tyrone in AISF then beaten by Mayo who lost final aft4er replay. The following year thy retained title and again in the final then Galway wena ll the way. All those games were extremely tight affairs.

So by "always 50/50" Im not basing on pub talk but simple analysis of previous results

1992 Draw, Mayo by 7
1993
1994
1995 Galway by 7
1996 Mayo by 4
1997 Mayo by 4
1998 Galway by 4
1999 Mayo by 4
2000 NA
2001
2002 Galway by 2
2003 Galway by 4
2004 Mayo by 6
2005 Galway by 2
2006 Mayo by 1
2007
2008 Galway by 1
2009 Mayo by 1
2010 NA
2011 Mayo by 6
2012 NA
2013 Mayo by 17
2014 Mayo by 7
2015 Mayo by 4
2016 Galway by 3
2017 Galway by 1

I don't see how stats dating back to 1992 are relevant? They're 2 completely different teams?