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August weather ONLY MOD NOTE : #213

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  • 25-07-2013 12:19pm
    #1
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭


    I see I have been allowed to finally post here after being banned for a year for being unconventional in my methods. I thank whoever has made that possible. It appears my methods upset some but they are not intended to be evil, and I write only for those interested in making use of them. I am not funded by any government so am not a drain on any taxpayer, and therefore I should threaten no one. I do make a living from forecasting but so do many in Met Eireann and the media and no one minds. I happen to have alternative viewpoints and in dealing in longrange forecasts cannot be orthodox as there is no technology designed for it. But if history is anything to go by I fully expect to be thrown out again of this forum for daring to post predictions, which are only opinions and suggestions based on the solid science of the orbits of moon and sun. It is not astrology and I have never been an astrologer. Nothing is certain and my predictions carry a leeway of 1-3 days and up to 80km radius error/applicability, same as any other forecasting.

    As for August, here are some extracts from my 2013 Ireland almanac.
    August is a mainly dry and summery, with some more hot days expected.
    Altogether there may be less than a handful of wet days for any one county.
    The month starts wet on the 1st/2nd, then dries for a few days, followed by overnight showers 6th-10th, mostly dry 12th-20th, brief rain around 21st-22nd, and then mostly dry for the remainder of the month.
    The southwest, particularly Limerick, may be the wettest county, and Louth may be driest.
    For temperatures, the whole month should stay in the 20s, with some very warm days around 7th, 21st and 29th-31st.

    I welcome other predictions based on other methods. I feel it is what a forum should be.
    cheers to all.


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    #2
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Kenring wrote: »
    I see I have been allowed to finally post here after being banned for a year for being unconventional in my methods. I thank whoever has made that possible. It appears my methods upset some but they are not intended to be evil, and I write only for those interested in making use of them. I am not funded by any government so am not a drain on any taxpayer, and therefore I should threaten no one. I do make a living from forecasting but so do many in Met Eireann and the media and no one minds. I happen to have alternative viewpoints and in dealing in longrange forecasts cannot be orthodox as there is no technology designed for it. But if history is anything to go by I fully expect to be thrown out again of this forum for daring to post predictions, which are only opinions and suggestions based on the solid science of the orbits of moon and sun. It is not astrology and I have never been an astrologer. Nothing is certain and my predictions carry a leeway of 1-3 days and up to 80km radius error/applicability, same as any other forecasting.



    As for August, here are some extracts from my 2013 Ireland almanac.
    August is a mainly dry and summery, with some more hot days expected.
    Altogether there may be less than a handful of wet days for any one county.
    The month starts wet on the 1st/2nd, then dries for a few days, followed by overnight showers 6th-10th, mostly dry 12th-20th, brief rain around 21st-22nd, and then mostly dry for the remainder of the month.
    The southwest, particularly Limerick, may be the wettest county, and Louth may be driest.
    For temperatures, the whole month should stay in the 20s, with some very warm days around 7th, 21st and 29th-31st.

    I welcome other predictions based on other methods. I feel it is what a forum should be.
    cheers to all.


    Your welcome to post Ken as long as you don't try to sell your product here on boards.

    There will zero tolerance shown in this regard.


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    #3
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Your welcome to post Ken as long as you don't try to sell your product here on boards.

    There will zero tolerance shown in this regard.
    I am confused so please help me out. Whenever Met Eireann is quoted it is their product that is portrayed, from which a large staff of people earn their living. It is the same when weather anchors are quoted. When I mention predictions it is on the same plane. I do not post advertisements here, but cannot I direct readers to view free articles about Ireland's weather that I post from time to time on my website, without the accusation of profiteering being directed at me? Why one rule for me and another for everyone else? Genuine query. Thanks.


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    #4
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,508 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    There's already a thread about August's weather.


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    #5
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    dsmythy wrote: »
    There's already a thread about August's weather.
    Apologies, I did not see it, and still cannot. Can you direct me to it please? It doesn't seem to be listed under "Weather".


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    #6
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    dsmythy wrote: »
    There's already a thread about August's weather.

    In fairness its not called August Weather so might be hard to find. Here you go http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056998631


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    #7
    Lumi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Kenring wrote: »
    I welcome other predictions based on other methods. I feel it is what a forum should be.
    cheers to all.

    This forum already hosts a fantastic monthly and seasonal forecast competition -thats where you'll find our predictions based on a whole heap of methods!
    Care to take a punt? Entries should open for August in the next day or so :)


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    #8
    Israeli Superiority
    Closed Accounts Posts: 365 ✭✭Israeli Superiority


    Just out of curiosity, why are you - a New Zealander - so interested in Irish weather forecasting?


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    #9
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Lumi wrote: »
    This forum already hosts a fantastic monthly and seasonal forecast competition -thats where you'll find our predictions based on a whole heap of methods!
    Care to take a punt? Entries should open for August in the next day or so :)
    Oh, thanks, so there is no August discussion thread after all? Apart from the competition? Then it would explain why I cannot see it listed.
    Thanks but I will decline as it's not what I'm about. I don't regard forecasting as a competition, but good luck to others if that is their interest. Plus the charge could be levelled at me that I might be using it to promote myself. I am content to post here and invite discussion about the theory of moon-induced atmospheric tides in the hope of advancing weather science. If no one wishes to share such discussion then so be it. cheers


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    #10
    Redriddick
    Registered Users Posts: 1,099 ✭✭✭Redriddick


    Sorry guys but going on hols to tralee on these 2 weeks.
    What weather can we expect??
    Looking at MT's forecast it looks good??


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    #11
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    Israeli Superiority wrote: »
    Just out of curiosity, why are you - a New Zealander - so interested in Irish weather forecasting?
    Because I seem to have attracted a lot of interest as a result of an interview in 2009 with Matt Cooper on TodayFM, when after a couple of forgettable summers farmers were again despairing, and I told the programme that summer was coming for two weeks in September, which was then a month or two away. Other radio stations picked up on it and a kind of national game developed whereby many were watching intently and wondering if I would be wrong. It so happened the sun broke through exactly on cue and departed the same way, and many farms were saved. I was then regularly interviewed by county radio stations which has continued to present day. From 2010 the Irish Farmers Journal ran a weather column with my forecasts each month ahead until Andy Doyle, who edited it and who had made it his project, left the publication. But not before he had indicated to me that an almanac was sorely needed because farmers were not well enough catered for by the official forecasters, who were unwilling to go more than a couple of days ahead. So 2010 was the first edition and we have kept the book up every year since. The success of this year thus far has been encouraging and the media have been very kind. It seems that many desperate farmers have made use of the recommended haymaking months to their advantage. Over the years I have learned a lot about the country and made many internet friends, including Michael Gallagher the Donegal postman, who has my almanac, and I am delighted to think that I may have made a difference to people's lives. I have worked on many farms in NZ in my life and have farming relatives. The problems Irish farmers face are the same the world over. cheers


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    #12
    bogman_bass
    Registered Users Posts: 5,057 ✭✭✭bogman_bass


    Kenring wrote: »
    From 2010 the Irish Farmers Journal ran a weather column with my forecasts each month ahead until Andy Doyle, who edited it and who had made it his project, left the publication.

    Andy Doyle is still the tillage editor in the journal


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    #13
    Red Pepper
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,567 ✭✭✭Red Pepper


    Welcome back Ken.

    All forecasters are welcome here as long as

    a) The summer predictions are good. I am off for 2 weeks at end of Aug so you have pleased me no end there
    b) The winters are fierce cold with snow - some of us love a hardy winter and white capped mountains.


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    #14
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Rumbles of thunder in Naas now to my SE


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    #15
    kavanagh_h
    Registered Users Posts: 222 ✭✭kavanagh_h


    Welcome back! I never read your posts last time you were here <snip>we will look after the moderating thank you. I will be very interested to hear what you have to say. I know little of your methods but i am intrigued.


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    #16
    BO-JANGLES
    Registered Users Posts: 219 ✭✭BO-JANGLES


    Glad to see you on Boards KenRing, I always look forward to reading your predictions on Irish weather. Thanks to your forecast I managed to take the best time off on annual leave.


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    #17
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Welcome back Ken, It's always good to get your input and reasoning behind long range forecasts.


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    #18
    rainbowdash
    Closed Accounts Posts: 878 ✭✭✭rainbowdash


    BO-JANGLES wrote: »
    Glad to see you on Boards KenRing, I always look forward to reading your predictions on Irish weather. Thanks to your forecast I managed to take the best time off on annual leave.

    I clicked on his profile and find other posts by him.

    Here is a gem from Ken Ring last year.


    "I never claim 100%, no one does. 80% means 2 months per year potentially out. That allowed June to be out."

    I wouldn't book anything based on his guesses.

    Ken himself said in previous posts he does not make predictions, you got lucky this time it seems - hope you enjoyed the sun!!


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    #19
    Outkast_IRE
    Registered Users Posts: 7,515 ✭✭✭Outkast_IRE


    As MTs forecast is saying, there is potential there for it to warm up etc, but forecasting at that range is educated guesswork.


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    #20
    Birroc
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,070 ✭✭✭Birroc


    Welcome back Ken Ring. I did not know you posted on Boards before.
    Fascinated by your prediction system. I am sure it's as good if not better than many others. Keep up the good work.


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    #21
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    bogman_bass wrote: »
    Andy Doyle is still the tillage editor in the journal
    I do stand corrected, thanks. I just looked up Andy's last email. It was last year, and he says "my boss here was not prepared to continue with your longer term predictions as he sees weather as being entirely local". If Andy is reading this I sincerely apologise to him for the inaccuracy. I am glad he is still with the Journal.
    Interesting comment though, because I see weather as being more than local, seeing that the whole globe rotates once under the moon every 24 hours. What gives Ireland heatwaves also has potential to give NZ cold snaps. Closer perigees can exaggerate whatever season a country is experiencing.


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    #22
    Kenring
    Registered Users Posts: 515 ✭✭✭Kenring


    rainbowdash wrote: »
    I clicked on his profile and find other posts by him.
    Ken himself said in previous posts he does not make predictions, you got lucky this time it seems - hope you enjoyed the sun!!
    I do not believe there is such thing as luck in science. Neither is there random, coincidence, fluke etc - that is the language of the casino. In science there are always good reasons for something. I do not make what others call predictions who see them as certainties and something that contravenes Christianity. My idea of predictions are calculated opinions, like the predictions one makes before they cross the road safely based on estimations of speed of approaching cars, predictions one makes of satisfaction before eating a fine meal, or predictions beforehand of the outcome of a general election. For that reason I try to say "may" instead of "will", but I do notice Met Eireann says "will" in each forecast report extending forward a week. Are they predictions?


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    #23
    Cee-Jay-Cee
    Registered Users Posts: 12,235 ✭✭✭✭Cee-Jay-Cee


    rainbowdash wrote: »
    I clicked on his profile and find other posts by him.

    Here is a gem from Ken Ring last year.


    "I never claim 100%, no one does. 80% means 2 months per year potentially out. That allowed June to be out."

    I wouldn't book anything based on his guesses.

    Ken himself said in previous posts he does not make predictions, you got lucky this time it seems - hope you enjoyed the sun!!

    Lighten up, your taking life too seriously. His predictions/forecasts are every bit as valid as those of MTC or any of the numerous other amateur weather forecasters who study charts and post their opinions here.


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    #24
    Deank
    Registered Users Posts: 7,238 ✭✭✭Deank


    CJC999 wrote: »
    Lighten up, your taking life too seriously. His predictions/forecasts are every bit as valid as those of MTC or any of the numerous other amateur weather forecasters who study charts and post their opinions here.

    Ahem sorry to step in here but MTC is far from an amateur, with regards to Mr Rings predictions (no disrespect intended) but even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day.


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    #25
    gihj
    Registered Users Posts: 232 ✭✭gihj


    Welcome back Ken and feel free to post your opinions and methods on here.

    I'm sure most posters will find your opinions fascinating <snip>we will look after the moderating thank you

    You are as welcome on here as any enthusiast be they Irish,Canadian,New Zealander or whatever.


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    #26
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,879 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ken ring is to weather what Roy keane is to football or even Joe brolly is in Sunday game

    Maybe Joe brolly should be a weather man and ken a hurler brother of christy

    Anyways I welcome all weather experts as it broadens the consensus

    Consensus is the best weather forecaster on boards

    He she is the a n other of weather
    With regard to august I agree with kens prediction for august

    I think mine is a bit worse as I don't see much dry weather til mid august and then a breakdown around the last week

    Think ken is right that temperatures will be in the 20s but it may be coolerat the start and end and I don't see any 29s like July maybe 24 or 25


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    #27
    sfag31
    Registered Users Posts: 204 ✭✭sfag31


    Good to see you posting Ken. I didn't pay you any heed before this summer as (a) I seem to recollect you getting it wrong in the past, and (b) I thought you deserved no credit for predicting cloud and rain year after year as that is all we were ever going to get.

    However your predictions for this year were close enough in the important areas and so different than anything that could be considered fluke I have to say congrats are in order.

    FWIW - everybody I meet small talking in shops and the like, say that they heard August is going to be good, and even though they don't know where they heard that from, I'm guessing it can be sourced back to you. Make of that what you will. You are an anonymous celebrity.

    <snip> we will look after the moderating thank you

    I'm pretty sure I read posters on here laughing their socks off at the idea that we could have 30 degrees.


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    #28
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I look forward to here possibly being the driest county.


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    #29
    Duck's hoop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭Duck's hoop


    Just listened in to ME there. Made for depressingly familiar listening with a very unsettled, windy and wet week on the cards.


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    #30
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Welcome back Ken. I thought you were treated very badly on this website that led you being banned. We are getting a pretty good summer, something we haven't seen in over 7 years now.


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    #31
    rainbowdash
    Closed Accounts Posts: 878 ✭✭✭rainbowdash


    CJC999 wrote: »
    Lighten up, your taking life too seriously. His predictions/forecasts are every bit as valid as those of MTC or any of the numerous other amateur weather forecasters who study charts and post their opinions here.

    So what to do you want us to do here, just agree 100% that Ken Ring is the future of weather, close down Met Eireann, and wait for Kens tweets.

    Its different points of view that make all these threads interesting.

    Personally I think people are falling for the 3 card trick if they are willing to pay for his inputs.


This discussion has been closed.
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