August weather ONLY MOD NOTE : #213

Redriddick

Thanks for the replies.
Will just have to wait and see so!!!
Thanks again.

Larbre34

All of the regulars that post here, whether hobbyists, amateurs or pro-ams do so out of enjoyment and interest. So long as whoever posts here isnt selling anything then everyone should be allowed to contribute, it only adds to the debate

<snip>we will look after the moderating thank you

pistolpetes11

There is to be no discussion of paying for services here or personal abuse towards Ken's methods or him personally , discuss the weather and that is all

Red Pepper

Be under no illusions guys - I am off for much of August...and whether ye are "amateur" or "professional" weather forecasters...if August turns out to be a dreary cold washout, I will find you...

Joe Public

rainbowdash wrote: »

So what to do you want us to do here, just agree 100% that Ken Ring is the future of weather, close down Met Eireann, and wait for Kens tweets.

Its different points of view that make all these threads interesting.

Personally I think people are falling for the 3 card trick if they are willing to pay for his inputs.

Just carry on as usual, you will always have people who are easily swayed for whatever reason. Take on board all the information displayed and make your own mind up. As Ken says it's like making a decision whether to cross or not cross the road, it's your choice. If you can't make your own mind up you can follow others you have more trust in.

mitresize5

Agreed - Ken seems to have upset a lot of people who take there weather forecasting seriously for some reason but for the casual observer of this forum (like myself) he is a welcome addition.

I enjoy all contributions on this forum and I don't think he should be seen as a threat to anyone

edit: BTW if I really need to know whats coming down the line weather wise it MT Craniums forecast I'll be looking at

Kenring

This is not a competition and I do not issue forecasts as a device to upset people. I have more important things to do. <Snip> KEEP IT ON TOPIC PLEASE , do me a favour and use some paragraphs also

Rikand

Ken, you are welcome in fantasy island anytime

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056945946

Kenring

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

There is to be no discussion of paying for services here or personal abuse towards Ken's methods or him personally , discuss the weather and that is all

Thanks mods for keeping a controlling eye on posts. Much appreciated.

Birtles

Kenring wrote: »

I see I have been allowed to finally post here after being banned for a year for being unconventional in my methods. I thank whoever has made that possible. It appears my methods upset some but they are not intended to be evil, and I write only for those interested in making use of them. I am not funded by any government so am not a drain on any taxpayer, and therefore I should threaten no one. I do make a living from forecasting but so do many in Met Eireann and the media and no one minds. I happen to have alternative viewpoints and in dealing in longrange forecasts cannot be orthodox as there is no technology designed for it. But if history is anything to go by I fully expect to be thrown out again of this forum for daring to post predictions, which are only opinions and suggestions based on the solid science of the orbits of moon and sun. It is not astrology and I have never been an astrologer. Nothing is certain and my predictions carry a leeway of 1-3 days and up to 80km radius error/applicability, same as any other forecasting.

As for August, here are some extracts from my 2013 Ireland almanac.
August is a mainly dry and summery, with some more hot days expected.
Altogether there may be less than a handful of wet days for any one county.
The month starts wet on the 1st/2nd, then dries for a few days, followed by overnight showers 6th-10th, mostly dry 12th-20th, brief rain around 21st-22nd, and then mostly dry for the remainder of the month.
The southwest, particularly Limerick, may be the wettest county, and Louth may be driest.
For temperatures, the whole month should stay in the 20s, with some very warm days around 7th, 21st and 29th-31st.

I welcome other predictions based on other methods. I feel it is what a forum should be.
cheers to all.

Hope you are right Ken. We just made the decision to hold off cutting our full 74 acre silage cut ( all of this years silage) until the 04th & 05th of August based on the above forecast. Ready to cut now but need couple of dry days to do it. Will let you know how it goes!!

Tornando9

Birtles wrote: »

Hope you are right Ken. We just made the decision to hold off cutting our full 74 acre silage cut ( all of this years silage) until the 04th & 05th of August based on the above forecast. Ready to cut now but need couple of dry days to do it. Will let you know how it goes!!

Wait for MT's forecast before committing to work like that. Those dates will be in range of the charts soon and if you ask here someone will tell you what the charts are forecasting.

Here is an FI chart for the 4th and its lashing rain.

Kenring

Birtles wrote: »

Hope you are right Ken. We just made the decision to hold off cutting our full 74 acre silage cut ( all of this years silage) until the 04th & 05th of August based on the above forecast. Ready to cut now but need couple of dry days to do it. Will let you know how it goes!!

I would definitely not recommend that! The window between 4th-5th is too small, given the 24-hr error in all forecasting. Plus, I have showers possible for Cork 5th-13th. If it was me I'd plan to be doing it from the 13th onwards. You should have at least a week of dry then. cheers

pauldry

while I welcome all opinions, yourself included Ken it is MTC that issues the most accurate and consistent long term forecasts around here

Cue music to the good the bad and the ugly

one thing though Ken, if you see Gerry Murphy saying the weather on RTE you can be sure of rain every day for at least a week

Joe Public

pauldry wrote: »

while I welcome all opinions, yourself included Ken it is MTC that issues the most accurate and consistent long term forecasts around here

Wrong! as everyone knows it's Con Sensus

Kenring

pauldry wrote: »

while I welcome all opinions, yourself included Ken it is MTC that issues the most accurate and consistent long term forecasts around here

That's okay, as I said, it's not a competition. If MTC back in January also said that 9 July would see 30C, as I did in most Irish newspapers, then he gets my vote too.

ardinn

Kenring wrote: »

That's okay, as I said, it's not a competition. If MTC back in January also said that 9 July would see 30C, as I did in most Irish newspapers, then he gets my vote too.

Nice

jdsk2006

Hi all, Anyone able advise me where in ireland to go camping for next 6days? We leave tomorrow and we are willing to drive wherever to the driest spot!!

rainbowdash

Kenring wrote: »

I would definitely not recommend that! The window between 4th-5th is too small, given the 24-hr error in all forecasting. Plus, I have showers possible for Cork 5th-13th. If it was me I'd plan to be doing it from the 13th onwards. You should have at least a week of dry then. cheers

Why tell us in the first post it will be overnight showers (god that is precise) on the 6th-10th August and then tell us there is 24 hour error, along with telling a previous thread you are only about 80% accurate anyway?

If its only going to be showers at night surely the lads at the silage can work away, as there is a few dry days beforehand anyway.

Even allowing for your 24hrs then the showers will only come on the night of the 5th, so the lads will have the silage saved??

Kenring

jdsk2006 wrote: »

Hi all, Anyone able advise me where in ireland to go camping for next 6days? We leave tomorrow and we are willing to drive wherever to the driest spot!!

I'd head for Co. Kerry.

Tornando9

jdsk2006 wrote: »

Hi all, Anyone able advise me where in ireland to go camping for next 6days? We leave tomorrow and we are willing to drive wherever to the driest spot!!

Most certainly do not head to Kerry, this week will be wet with rain pushing up from the SW and Kerry will see some of the worst of it.

Most areas will be wet this week but northern counties could be the drier option.

Kenring

rainbowdash wrote: »

Why tell us in the first post it will be overnight showers (god that is precise) on the 6th-10th August and then tell us there is 24 hour error, along with telling a previous thread you are only about 80% accurate anyway?

If its only going to be showers at night surely the lads at the silage can work away, as there is a few dry days beforehand anyway.

Even allowing for your 24hrs then the showers will only come on the night of the 5th, so the lads will have the silage saved??

I was actually writing only for Birtles. These are opinions, not certainties. I did not say showers 6th-10th, I said chances of showers in that interval. Yes, there is a 24-hr error and 80-85% accuracy with all forecasting because it is not an exact science. The lads can do what they wish. I said if it was me I'd wait until after the 13th in Cork. Not so in other counties. I see no inconsistencies in what I wrote. I was only trying to do Birtles a favour.

Kenring

Tornando9 wrote: »

Most certainly do not head to Kerry, this week will be wet with rain pushing up from the SW and Kerry will see some of the worst of it.

Most areas will be wet this week but northern counties could be the drier option.

So now you have two opinions to choose from, jdsk2006.

Duiske

Kenring wrote: »

That's okay, as I said, it's not a competition. If MTC back in January also said that 9 July would see 30C, as I did in most Irish newspapers, then he gets my vote too.

If most Irish newspapers carried this fantastic news last January, I'd assume you can provide links to the articles on the newspapers websites ?

Kenring

Duiske wrote: »

If most Irish newspapers carried this fantastic news last January, I'd assume you can provide links to the articles on the newspapers websites ?

http://www.eazycityblog.com/summer-ireland/

http://www.joe.ie/news/current-affairs/good-news-one-guy-is-predicting-a-scorching-summer-for-ireland-this-year/

http://www.independent.ie/weather/weather-guru-ken-ring-says-were-in-for-a-summer-scorcher-28953806.html

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Ireland-to-bask-in-Med-like-sunshine-as-The-Gathering-gathers-pace-in-July-185488342.html

relaxed

Kenring wrote: »

I was actually writing only for Birtles. These are opinions, not certainties. I did not say showers 6th-10th, I said chances of showers in that interval. Yes, there is a 24-hr error and 80-85% accuracy with all forecasting because it is not an exact science. The lads can do what they wish. I said if it was me I'd wait until after the 13th in Cork. Not so in other counties. I see no inconsistencies in what I wrote. I was only trying to do Birtles a favour.

so theres a chance of rain in August, there will be some sunny periods, there might be some warm periods, but you are only 80-85% accurate on that. :rolleyes:

Same as every other August really.

dsmythy

Kenring wrote: »

http://www.eazycityblog.com/summer-ireland/

http://www.joe.ie/news/current-affairs/good-news-one-guy-is-predicting-a-scorching-summer-for-ireland-this-year/

http://www.independent.ie/weather/weather-guru-ken-ring-says-were-in-for-a-summer-scorcher-28953806.html

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Ireland-to-bask-in-Med-like-sunshine-as-The-Gathering-gathers-pace-in-July-185488342.html

Prediction Summer 2011 - http://www.independent.ie/business/farming/moon-reader-predicting-a-long-hot-summer-26611051.html

Prediction Summer 2012 - https://soundcloud.com/hectoron2fm/weather-final

What do you think went wrong with the the two summers before this one? Was there some sort of unexpected hiccup that scuppered people's predictions including your own? The cold snap in January 2010 was missed too.

Result Summer 2011 - http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Coldest-Irish-summer-in-50-years---its-official-127722763.html

Result Summer 2012 - http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Wet-dull-and-windy---Summer-of-2012-was-Irelands-worst-in-26-years-168437756.html

blackbird99

quote "The southwest, particularly Limerick, may be the wettest county, and Louth may be driest."
safe enough bet there
met eireanns climate map for rainfall

omicron

On 17th May 2012 you said this:

Kenring wrote: »

9-10 June look to be warm with that southern moon in perigee bringing warmer air northwards. In fact June looks pleasantly dry, with maybe less than a handful of rain days. The farmers will be able to let the animals out.

9-10 June was in fact in the mid teens, as were 8th and 11th June, so no '24 hour get out clause''. Also, farmers tend to trust your forecast for some reason, yet met eireann stations recorded 234% of their average monthly rainfall that month.

jdsk2006

Kenring wrote: »

So now you have two opinions to choose from, jdsk2006.

It seems I do. Was originally thinking wexford going by met eireann long range ...... I'm a very confused bunny today

Kenring

omicron wrote: »

farmers tend to trust your forecast for some reason.

I write for the farmers, not for the critics. Always easy to find fault and cherrypick the failures. Farmers are the most sceptical of all groups because they have to be the most practical. That's why I like dealing with them as clients. They call a spade a spade. But they are fair because they know longrange forecasting is about trends, not one date here or there. Also, they know one month out doesn't mean you throw away a system. If I didn't think I was pleasing them I'd soon take something else on. Radio shows still ask for interviews and they say it is by popular demand. So presumably I am delivering enough for those who are my target audience and if I can please them I am more than happy.