August weather ONLY MOD NOTE : #213

JM Skipton

mitresize5 wrote: »

So the biggest bank holiday of the summer is this weekend. Do I pack my factor 20 or my rain jacket for my trip to West Clare (or both)

MTC - seems to be a bit more hopeful that Met Eireann - both noncommittal but MTC leaning to a moer positive out look

Whats the story :-) :-)

Unfortunately from the charts I have looked at combined with ME forecast you will very much need your brolly and rain coat, possibility of better weather from mid week next week.
Weekend also looks to be slightly cooler as well. But like any prediction pinch of salt needed.

Monkaa

JM Skipton wrote: »

Unfortunately from the charts I have looked at combined with ME forecast you will very much need your brolly and rain coat, possibility of better weather from mid week next week.
Weekend also looks to be slightly cooler as well. But like any prediction pinch of salt needed.

I hope your wrong & MT is right who predicts the east will be dry

dopolahpec

Monkaa wrote: »

I hope your wrong & MT is right who predicts the east will be dry

If the east is dry this weekend I will eat my hat.

Monkaa

Hope it's made of chocolate then I know we prob won't escape the rain at this stage but pray it won't be a wash out & the garden party turns into a house party which I do not want!

bbam

So where is best to head?
We had planned on heading to the west over the weekend, would south east be a better bet??

JM Skipton

bbam wrote: »

So where is best to head?
We had planned on heading to the west over the weekend, would south east be a better bet??

There is a chance the south east may remain completely dry this weekend, Johnstown Castle has been the driest station in July so probably if you were making an educated guess the south wexford/waterford direction may be the best option

omicron

bbam wrote: »

So where is best to head?
We had planned on heading to the west over the weekend, would south east be a better bet??

Probably 9 times out of 10 south east is a better bet when it comes to rainfall! Still going to be showery though I'd say!

Red Pepper

Do people think the second half of August will be warm and sunny like Ken and MT have suggested?

Birtles

Red Pepper wrote: »

Do people think the second half of August will be warm and sunny like Ken and MT have suggested?

Accuweather are also giving a warm and sunny 2nd half to August. i know many people don't like this site but find it fairly sound for forecasts

Old diesel

Birtles wrote: »

Accuweather are also giving a warm and sunny 2nd half to August. i know many people don't like this site but find it fairly sound for forecasts

Looking at GFS just now (06 z run) - pressure is trying to build early next week - drops again around the 11th - but on the last day of the run (15th) it attempts to increase again.

Keep remembering the 1st week of Sept 2012 - to keep the spirits up - the good weather that week came completely againsed the run of play and out of nothing .

So anythings possible.

Kenring

Birtles wrote: »

Accuweather are also giving a warm and sunny 2nd half to August. i know many people don't like this site but find it fairly sound for forecasts

As far as I can tell, Joe Bastardi, MTC and myself are all using lunar methods, so our recommendations are going to be parallel.

Lumi

Birtles wrote: »

Accuweather are also giving a warm and sunny 2nd half to August. i know many people don't like this site but find it fairly sound for forecasts

Kenring wrote: »

As far as I can tell, Joe Bastardi, MTC and myself are all using lunar methods, so our recommendations are going to be parallel.

But none of them are connected with Accuweather

Kenring

Lumi wrote: »

But none of them are connected with Accuweather

Joe worked with/for Accuweather until a year or two ago, when he joined WeatherBell. I had an email correspondence with him at one stage. That's how I know all three of us use lunar methods.

Lumi

Kenring wrote: »

Joe worked with/for Accuweather until a year or two ago, when he joined WeatherBell. I had an email correspondence with him at one stage. That's how I know all three of us use lunar methods.

He resigned in February 2011 and currently has no connection with Accuweather

As Birties is discussing the current Accuweather prediction for August I just wonder why you would mention him and yourself and MTC for that matter. Accuweather most certainly do not employ lunar methodologies so any parallels between their forecast and yours cannot be attributed to that.

Does anyone have a WeatherBell subscription? Id be interested to know what Joe Bastardi has actually predicted for August. There doesn't seem to be as many European updates from him floating about on the interweb these days

Red Pepper

Kenring wrote: »

As far as I can tell, Joe Bastardi, MTC and myself are all using lunar methods, so our recommendations are going to be parallel.

Thanks Ken. I have often found accuweather "accurate" so my confidence is even higher now for my "staycation" during last 2 weeks of August.

Kenring

Lumi wrote: »

He resigned in February 2011 and currently has no connection with Accuweather

As Birties is discussing the current Accuweather prediction for August I just wonder why you would mention him and yourself and MTC for that matter. Accuweather most certainly do not employ lunar methodologies so any parallels between their forecast and yours cannot be attributed to that.

Does anyone have a WeatherBell subscription? Id be interested to know what Joe Bastardi has actually predicted for August. There doesn't seem to be as many European updates from him floating about on the interweb these days

I mention it because longrange forecasters I have been associated with or come to hear about all would use lunar in some way. Piers Corbyn of Weather Action and Richard Holle of Aerology also do because I have also corresponded with them in the past, so does Old Farmers Almanac in the US because they say so. Not sure about Old Moore's but I would be most surprised if they did not. Michael Gallagher of Donnegal uses the moon indirectly - nature responds to the moon via perigees which control kingtides and therefore water tables, e.g sap levels in trees. Even pure astrologers would admit that the Moon in the 4th House is 50% of all weather, although I would venture it would go to 80% at times.

Kenring

Red Pepper wrote: »

Thanks Ken. I have often found accuweather "accurate" so my confidence is even higher now for my "staycation" during last 2 weeks of August.

There is the chance of light shower activity between 21st-22nd especially in the south, and may extend to the 25th in central counties only, but nothing that won't pass quickly. The sunniest is 12th-20th and 26th-30th.

Lumi

Kenring wrote: »

There is the chance of light shower activity between 21st-22nd especially in the south, and may extend to the 25th in central counties only, but nothing that won't pass quickly. The sunniest is 12th-20th and 26th-30th.

I just checked AccuWeather.com there out of idle interest and they are now forecasting rain/showers and temps in the high teens right up to Aug 18th. It's in contrast to yours Ken so they're obviously not using the same methodologies

Today's ECM output seems to support that but its just one model run, time will tell I suppose.

Kenring

Lumi wrote: »

I just checked AccuWeather.com there out of idle interest and they are now forecasting rain/showers and temps in the high teens right up to Aug 18th. It's in contrast to yours Ken so they're obviously not using the same methodologies

Today's ECM output seems to support that but its just one model run, time will tell I suppose.

Well, all I know is that Joe gave me the impression he was a lunar man. I have no reason to change that. If you are saying that Accu are changing things then they are no longer lunar, they are using other models. There is no need to change a lunar forecast, just as there is never a need to change tide tables as a particular day approaches.

relaxed

Kenring wrote: »

There is the chance of light shower activity between 21st-22nd especially in the south, and may extend to the 25th in central counties only, but nothing that won't pass quickly. The sunniest is 12th-20th and 26th-30th.

According to your forecast this Saturday, Sunday and Monday are going to be dry, but met eireann are forecasting rain each day.

Why do you bother trying to forecast so accurately when clearly its a hit and miss, stopped clock right twice a day system?

Hoochiemama

Jesus lads will yee RELAX!!! Stop having a go at the man for doing a forecast. What next? Burn him at the stake?

Birroc

Hoochiemama wrote: »

Jesus lads will yee RELAX!!! Stop having a go at the man for doing a forecast. What next? Burn him at the stake?

Agreed. "relaxed" clearly has an issue. It's not his 1st swipe.

downonthefarm

18-07-2013, 01:40 #1588
downonthefarm
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can you guys predict if this would generate tornadoes?or have i been watching too much nat geo?
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Ruudi_Mentari

Seems autumnal out already right....

And I guess that is what dictates us. Or certainly me; i tend to slip into seasonal character and it almost perpetually feels like The Halloween season!

Now where's my Michael Myers mask.

inabina

Evelyn confident of unsettled weather for next 10 days....anyone comfortable to disagree with her?

Duck's hoop

If she said 20 she probably wouldn't be too far wrong.

fits

Leaving Ireland again on 11th. Looks like summer is over for me

Old diesel

inabina wrote: »

Evelyn confident of unsettled weather for next 10 days....anyone comfortable to disagree with her?

How would one interpret this line from MT Cranium from his forecast this morning - referring I believe to next week.

"The following week looks somewhat improved with higher pressures building in"

Met Eireann are always saying how they can only forecast up to 10 days in advance - with reliability decreasing the further out you go. :rolleyes:.

Don't know how she can make the call so far out - could be a completely different line in a couple of days time .

Birtles

Lumi wrote: »

He resigned in February 2011 and currently has no connection with Accuweather

As Birties is discussing the current Accuweather prediction for August I just wonder why you would mention him and yourself and MTC for that matter. Accuweather most certainly do not employ lunar methodologies so any parallels between their forecast and yours cannot be attributed to that.

Does anyone have a WeatherBell subscription? Id be interested to know what Joe Bastardi has actually predicted for August. There doesn't seem to be as many European updates from him floating about on the interweb these days

I dont have a weatherbell sub but thought about it. Always found Joe Bastardi to be an excellent source for medium range weather for us.

Kenring

relaxed wrote: »

According to your forecast this Saturday, Sunday and Monday are going to be dry, but met eireann are forecasting rain each day.

Why do you bother trying to forecast so accurately when clearly its a hit and miss, stopped clock right twice a day system?

Met Eireann said (on 14 May, link posted here) that this would be "a washout summer" for Ireland. You writing to them?