August weather ONLY MOD NOTE : #213

Kenring

Old diesel wrote: »

Met Eireann are always saying how they can only forecast up to 10 days in advance - with reliability decreasing the further out you go. :rolleyes:.

Don't know how she can make the call so far out - could be a completely different line in a couple of days time .

There is no way you can take a photo today of something moving, which is what Met Eireann do, and expect it to still be there in 10 days time. It is why their accuracy is only suited to a day or two. There is also no thermometer invented that can measure the temperature of the world (global warming) or determine the temperature of any one location in ten years time. But I think Evelyn feels obliged to make comments about extended and long range to head off the alternative forecasters. The trouble is, that only gives us more public interest when we get more hits.

Lumi

Birtles wrote: »

I dont have a weatherbell sub but thought about it. Always found Joe Bastardi to be an excellent source for medium range weather for us.

The WeatherBell sub is pricey but he's pretty active on Twitter @BigJoeBastardi and he replied to a question for me last year so might be worth tweeting him about his thoughts for August. I'll let you know how I get on

Kenring

Lumi wrote: »

The WeatherBell sub is pricey but he's pretty active on Twitter @BigJoeBastardi and he replied to a question for me last year so might be worth tweeting him about his thoughts for August. I'll let you know how I get on

Be careful, you'll get some posters screaming about how evil it is to charge for forecasts:D

dopolahpec

Lumi wrote: »

The WeatherBell sub is pricey but he's pretty active on Twitter @BigJoeBastardi and he replied to a question for me last year so might be worth tweeting him about his thoughts for August. I'll let you know how I get on

He hysterically called a sort of mini ice age for Ireland and the UK last December urging people to stock up on fuel etc if I recall. A 1/50 year whiteout. Obviously didn't happen. Fox News hype man stuff. He was good on the oul hurricane that hit NY though he seemed to preempt the path perfectly but ramped the intensity

Rightwing

I'm no forecaster, but I'm writing the month of August off.

Let's be honest here, first 3 weeks of July was a complete freak,,,,won't be seen for another 20 years.

Lumi

dopolahpec wrote: »

He hysterically called a sort of mini ice age for Ireland and the UK last December urging people to stock up on fuel etc if I recall. A 1/50 year whiteout. Obviously didn't happen. Fox News hype man stuff. He was good on the oul hurricane that hit NY though he seemed to preempt the path perfectly but ramped the intensity

I agree and since he parted company with Accuweather he's become increasingly prone to ott ramping! I get a kick out of his reactions to Al Gore on Twitter
I'd just be interested to hear his thoughts on Autumn and the reasoning behind it

fits

Kenring wrote: »

Met Eireann said (on 14 May, link posted here) that this would be "a washout summer" for Ireland. You writing to them?

Can you post that link?

Birtles

Lumi wrote: »

The WeatherBell sub is pricey but he's pretty active on Twitter @BigJoeBastardi and he replied to a question for me last year so might be worth tweeting him about his thoughts for August. I'll let you know how I get on

actually started following him on twitter last night! @bigjoebastardi

Kenring

fits wrote: »

Can you post that link?

http://www.thestar.ie/star/another-summer-washout-on-way/

Birtles

How is the forecast looking for near future now?
Met eireann is covering all bases for all areas.

'some uncertainty about the rest of the Bank Holiday weekend'. its only 3/4 days of a forecast!

Uncertainty increases further into next week. While there are indications that Tuesday and Wednesday next may be dry apart from only a few showers, threats of rain and quite strong winds are suggested for later in the week.

Outkast_IRE

Kenring wrote: »

http://www.thestar.ie/star/another-summer-washout-on-way/

Did you read that article, no where in the article does met eireann predict a washout summer.

The star have a headline saying washout summer, but the quotes from the sources say they wont be drawn into long range forecasting.

pauldry

Rightwing wrote: »

I'm no forecaster, but I'm writing the month of August off.

Let's be honest here, first 3 weeks of July was a complete freak,,,,won't be seen for another 20 years.

20 years? wrong but it was the warmest July in over 100 years in parts

however we normally get one sunny month a year or two, this year we got february and july

last year was it march and some of may/june

next year maybe august!!!

ask ken

pauldry

Birtles wrote: »

How is the forecast looking for near future now?
Met eireann is covering all bases for all areas.

'some uncertainty about the rest of the Bank Holiday weekend'. its only 3/4 days of a forecast!

Uncertainty increases further into next week. While there are indications that Tuesday and Wednesday next may be dry apart from only a few showers, threats of rain and quite strong winds are suggested for later in the week.

all forecasting is pretty uncertain

some uncertainty surrounds the result of the Mayo Donegal match but Mayo will win

some uncertainty surrounds the budget but social welfare and child benefit will be hit

some uncertainty surrounds when I will next get to go on a foriegn holiday but me 2 year olds are worth it:)

some uncertainty surrounds the bank holiday weekend but Im getting Chinese and watchn the GAA

Deank

pauldry wrote: »

all forecasting is pretty uncertain

some uncertainty surrounds the result of the Mayo Donegal match but Mayo will win

some uncertainty surrounds the budget but social welfare and child benefit will be hit

some uncertainty surrounds when I will next get to go on a foriegn holiday but me 2 year olds are worth it:)

some uncertainty surrounds the bank holiday weekend but Im getting Chinese and watchn the GAA

Some uncertainty surrounds whether you are sober?!? :pac::)

Kenring

Outkast_IRE wrote: »

Did you read that article, no where in the article does met eireann predict a washout summer.

The star have a headline saying washout summer, but the quotes from the sources say they wont be drawn into long range forecasting.

Well, no. What part of "Another summer washout on way" and "Ireland faces a repeat of last year’s abysmal summer with more rain, flood worries and strong winds" is unclear? Isn't it just a bob-each-way situation when they say this, and if it came true they could say they predicted it, but if it didn't come true they could say nah, we don't predict ahead?

Popoutman

Ken, there appears to be a comprehension issue there. In that article you linked, Met Eireann did not state what you said they did say. The quotes you have above are not Met Eireann quotes - they are Star quotes - hence why your mistake is being pointed out. Just accept it and move on.

Kenring

Popoutman wrote: »

Ken, there appears to be a comprehension issue there. In that article you linked, Met Eireann did not state what you said they did say. The quotes you have above are not Met Eireann quotes - they are Star quotes - hence why your mistake is being pointed out. Just accept it and move on.

Accept what? The way these things work is that the Star would have interviewed Met Eireann because Met Eireann would have sent out an initial press release. That's how it works. You are suggesting that the Star made up the headline and the copy and then inferred it came from Met Eireann when they had nothing whatever to with it. I don't think they would have done that because Met Eireann would have strongly complained if that was the case.

Oneiric 3

Kenring wrote: »

You are suggesting that the Star made up the headline and the copy and then inferred it came from Met Eireann when they had nothing whatever to with it.

That is exactly what the Star did. That is how trash media works. A misleading headline followed by a few taken out of context quotes by reputable sources.

Quote from The Star:

"Met Eireann predicts “very unsettled” weather until Friday, with showers, some heavy and thundery, and cool 12-14C highs."

How a forecast for a few days ahead translates into a 'washout summer ahead' is just beyond comprehension.

Here is another recent example of trash reporting:

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/tornadoes-may-hit-ireland-tomorrow-weather-warning-29462961.html

Sub-headline in article above:
"met eireann has issued a warning for tornadoes tomorrow"

Only thing is, they never actually did...


I am not sure how the press operate in New Zealand so I can't comment, but you seem to have a very naive view on the integrity of the press on this side of the world Ken. Because tabloids over here only care about selling a juiced up story rather than actually being genuinely informative about anything really.

Kenring

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

That is exactly what the Star did. That is how trash media works. A misleading headline followed by a few taken out of context quotes by reputable sources.

Quote from The Star:

"Met Eireann predicts “very unsettled” weather until Friday, with showers, some heavy and thundery, and cool 12-14C highs."

How a forecast for a few days ahead translates into a 'washout summer ahead' is just beyond comprehension.

Here is another recent example of trash reporting:

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/tornadoes-may-hit-ireland-tomorrow-weather-warning-29462961.html

Sub-headline in article above:
"met eireann has issued a warning for tornadoes tomorrow"

Only thing is, they never actually did...


I am not sure how the press operate in New Zealand so I can't comment, but you seem to have a very naive view on the integrity of the press on this side of the world Ken. Because tabloids over here only care about selling a juiced up story rather than actually being genuinely informative about anything really.

Fair enough, but over here the Metservice would be hauled over the coals, because we are such an outdoors people and there are always school camps out there, boat trips, and light aircraft flying over miles upon miles of uninhabited mountainous terrain. Plus, stock are outside all year around. Then if that's the case I can't figure why people quote Met Eireann at all, as, say, compared to what another forecaster says, if nothing they are reputed to forecast is to be trusted as coming from them?

Outkast_IRE

Kenring wrote: »

Fair enough, but over here the Metservice would be hauled over the coals, because we are such an outdoors people and there are always school camps out there, boat trips, and light aircraft flying over miles upon miles of uninhabited mountainous terrain. Plus, stock are outside all year around. Then if that's the case I can't figure why people quote Met Eireann at all, as, say, compared to what another forecaster says, if nothing they are reputed to forecast is to be trusted as coming from them?

Because Met Eireann aren't the ones that made all the rubbish up. The parts that were highlighted in bold for you by the other poster are the only quotes from met eireann, the person writing the article wrote all the other stuff. The met service did nothing wrong accept give its forecast for the coming days. The article writer wrote all the rest.

And its an article Ken, not a weather report, its an article in a trashy newspaper, you might as well quote the national enquirer, or Beano for the weather.

If people actually watch the met eireann weather report, and read their website the accuracy of their forecasts is reasonable.

It would be the same as me asking you for a quote Ken , and you reply with a one liner like " Theres a chance of rain next week" and I write an entire article about how theres going to be catastrophic floods all summer. Its a trash paper ken.

Rightwing

Popoutman wrote: »

Ken, there appears to be a comprehension issue there. In that article you linked, Met Eireann did not state what you said they did say. The quotes you have above are not Met Eireann quotes - they are Star quotes - hence why your mistake is being pointed out. Just accept it and move on.

That star article is interesting. The key quote:

“Met Eireann does not forecast the jet stream’s position — but Atlantic low pressure has a similar influence on the UK and Ireland, so there’s no reason to disagree with the Met Office jet stream forecast.”

Met Eireann certainly got that bit wrong.

relaxed

Kenring wrote: »

Met Eireann said (on 14 May, link posted here) that this would be "a washout summer" for Ireland. You writing to them?

Firstly, I doubt they said that, secondly if they had said that unfortunately they might end up being right, given the ongoing forecast for wind, rain, and cold.


Hopefully your august forecast of dry summery weather with less than a handful of wet days will still come true, but I can't see it:mad:

JM Skipton

Rightwing wrote: »

That star article is interesting. The key quote:

“Met Eireann does not forecast the jet stream’s position — but Atlantic low pressure has a similar influence on the UK and Ireland, so there’s no reason to disagree with the Met Office jet stream forecast.”

Met Eireann certainly got that bit wrong.

I would doubt ME even said that to be honest, you have to remember the class of establishment that is carrying out the interview and putting words in peoples mouths would not be beyond them.

Rightwing

JM Skipton wrote: »

I would doubt ME even said that to be honest, you have to remember the class of establishment that is carrying out the interview and putting words in peoples mouths would not be beyond them.

I take your point, but in this instance, it's genuine. I mean, very few would have suspected the jet stream to move up and get the great weather we got, also they in that article they did name the Met eireann person.

Anyone who predicted the great July, hats off to them. In odds terms, it would have been something like this.

Great July: 20/1
Poor July: 1/25

mitresize5

this is getting really really really boring

Birtles

pauldry wrote: »

all forecasting is pretty uncertain

some uncertainty surrounds the result of the Mayo Donegal match but Mayo will win

some uncertainty surrounds the budget but social welfare and child benefit will be hit

some uncertainty surrounds when I will next get to go on a foriegn holiday but me 2 year olds are worth it:)

some uncertainty surrounds the bank holiday weekend but Im getting Chinese and watchn the GAA

point taken!
was hoping they could provide a bit more guidance for the BH weekend, forecast this morning is still a bit vague.

IMO as they are paid professionals they should be able to pin it down a bit further. any good amateur weather can give a forecast with big degrees of uncertainty.

Outkast_IRE

Rightwing wrote: »

That star article is interesting. The key quote:
“Met Eireann does not forecast the jet stream’s position — but Atlantic low pressure has a similar influence on the UK and Ireland, so there’s no reason to disagree with the Met Office jet stream forecast.”

Met Eireann certainly got that bit wrong.

You are reading your own quote totally incorrectly.


“Met Eireann does not forecast the jet stream’s position" Ok they don't forecast on the jet stream

"so there’s no reason to disagree with the Met Office jet stream forecast"
If you don't forecast it how would you disagree with others jet stream forecast.

My point being how would they agree or disagree with something they seem to refuse to forecast or comment on.

How can they be wrong on something they wont forecast and therefore wont agree or disagree with others.

If anything UK met office got it wrong and Met Eireann refused to agree or disagree with their Jetstream forecast

Rightwing

Outkast_IRE wrote: »

You are reading your own quote totally incorrectly.


“Met Eireann does not forecast the jet stream’s position" Ok they don't forecast on the jet stream

"so there’s no reason to disagree with the Met Office jet stream forecast"
If you don't forecast it how would you disagree with others jet stream forecast.

My point being how would they agree or disagree with something they seem to refuse to forecast or comment on.

How can they be wrong on something they wont forecast and therefore wont agree or disagree with others.

If anything UK met office got it wrong and Met Eireann refused to agree or disagree with their Jetstream forecast

My take on the above is, Met E also assumed the jet stream would do exactly as the UK crowd thought, and that's why they weren't disagreeing, otherwise why even comment on it.
Ken disagreed with the UK crowd, and he got it spot on.

shamrock55

Did i read that ken predicted a dry wkend?, well all i know is its dry here in bantry all morning pretty sunny now too, could ken be right about the wkend heres hoping:D

Outkast_IRE

Rightwing wrote: »

My take on the above is, Met E also assumed the jet stream would do exactly as the UK crowd thought, and that's why they weren't disagreeing, otherwise why even comment on it.
Ken disagreed with the UK crowd, and he got it spot on.

I think there is no way to know because without having a transcript of what questions were asked to prompt what answers it doesn't matter.

Your correct in saying he disagreed with UK met office and was right in the end.