Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

awec · 27-11-2020 9:21pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Then you should invest in Cairn Homes. Their share price is still below their IPO price in 2015. Maybe invest some in Hibernian REIT, Glenveagh and IRES REIT. All great value property related investments in Ireland at the moment if what you say is true.

Then maybe invest the in BOI (another property related investment) as they’re currently trading at a FIFTH of their value in 2015.

Truth is the real investors know where the property market in ireland is heading as otherwise the above share prices wouldn’t be where they are.

So we've moved on now from "tax reform has been discussed, we're going to lose all our MNCs" to "share prices in Cairn Homes is low, our property market is on the brink of disaster".

Where are we going next PropQueries on this bizarre trail of doom-hunting?

The_Conductor · 27-11-2020 9:27pm

Timing belt wrote: »

Hungry has a lower tax rate 9% and probably cheaper pay so why are companies not setting up there and instead choosing Ireland?

Hungary may have a corporation tax rate of 9%- and France has a rate of 28%. The headline rate of tax means very little though- and what you really need to look at is the effective rate of taxation. Despite France's new rate of 28% (it was 33% up to this year)- their effective rate of tax is below Ireland's rate. As for Hungary- their actual rate is very close to their effective rate.

This highlights the inalienable fact- the tax that companies pay is just one item on a long list of considerations of where to base their operations. Ireland has a low rate- certainly- but France is being quite duplicitous in the manner in which their theoretical rate is eroded all the way down to low single figures- and yet they preach to us about how unfair we are.

The OECD tax proposals are awaited with bated breath by Ireland- we'd much rather have a coherent OECD playbook- than have to negotiate with the EU Commission on common EU taxation regimes (which are a national competency in any event).

As it stands- while Ireland has a lot to loose from tax reforms- unless Ireland pushes the message of effective rates of taxation, we, the people of Ireland are going to get seriously short changed (and we're already getting short changed- as a result of an inflated GDP rate being used to calculate our dues to the EU).

The bigger issue for MNCs in Ireland- and its going to get even worse in future- is a basic inability to financially compensate the Irish workforce, when our marginal rate of tax and deductions is North of 50% at income levels as low as 35k (meanwhile most workers on <23k don't pay any tax at all). This squeezed middle are actively pursuing a less productive outcome- because why work harder when over half your income is accruing to the taxman- extra holidays or pretty much any form of compensation that doesn't incur tax- is preferable.

And all the tax issues- are before you start to look at the frankly ridiculous cost of, well everything, in Ireland- to say nothing of the housing shortages, the lack of a coherent transport strategy, a planning system that enables silly objections to hold up nationally strategic developments- and quangoes laying claim to regulation of everything under the sun.

And yet- despite all these things- doing business in Ireland, is still preferable to France's labour laws, Hungary and Poland's authoritian regimes and the many different deficiencies elsewhere. Ireland is not a shining example to anyone- but for the MNCs- we are the 'least worst option' available to them. Being the least worst option- is not a platitude that I'd wish on anyone.

PropQueries · 27-11-2020 9:28pm

awec wrote: »

So we've moved on now from "tax reform has been discussed, we're going to lose all our MNCs" to "share prices in Cairn Homes is low, our property market is on the brink of disaster".

Where are we going next PropQueries on this bizarre trail of doom-hunting?

Not “doom-hunting”.

Cairn homes share price is below its 2015 IPO Price. BOI is trading at a fifth of its 2015 share price. The OECD global tax reforms will be agreed next year. France and others are introducing their digital taxes. The central bank report on future housing demand in Ireland out to 2030 published in December 2019 did state that demand for new built housing in Ireland due to natural population growth is a maximum of 18,000 per annum if there was no net inward migration or obsolescence. And I still think that’s a grossly excessive estimate given that they don’t count all those pre-bust vacant properties still lying around.

It’s not “doom-hunting”. It’s called looking at the signals. And they’re not good for the Irish property market IMO

PropQueries · 27-11-2020 9:35pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Hungary may have a corporation tax rate of 9%- and France has a rate of 28%. The headline rate of tax means very little though- and what you really need to look at is the effective rate of taxation. Despite France's new rate of 28% (it was 33% up to this year)- their effective rate of tax is below Ireland's rate. As for Hungary- their actual rate is very close to their effective rate.

This highlights the inalienable fact- the tax that companies pay is just one item on a long list of considerations of where to base their operations. Ireland has a low rate- certainly- but France is being quite duplicitous in the manner in which their theoretical rate is eroded all the way down to low single figures- and yet they preach to us about how unfair we are.

The OECD tax proposals are awaited with bated breath by Ireland- we'd much rather have a coherent OECD playbook- than have to negotiate with the EU Commission on common EU taxation regimes (which are a national competency in any event).

As it stands- while Ireland has a lot to loose from tax reforms- unless Ireland pushes the message of effective rates of taxation, we, the people of Ireland are going to get seriously short changed (and we're already getting short changed- as a result of an inflated GDP rate being used to calculate our dues to the EU).

The bigger issue for MNCs in Ireland- and its going to get even worse in future- is a basic inability to financially compensate the Irish workforce, when our marginal rate of tax and deductions is North of 50% at income levels as low as 35k (meanwhile most workers on <23k don't pay any tax at all). This squeezed middle are actively pursuing a less productive outcome- because why work harder when over half your income is accruing to the taxman- extra holidays or pretty much any form of compensation that doesn't incur tax- is preferable.

And all the tax issues- are before you start to look at the frankly ridiculous cost of, well everything, in Ireland- to say nothing of the housing shortages, the lack of a coherent transport strategy, a planning system that enables silly objections to hold up nationally strategic developments- and quangoes laying claim to regulation of everything under the sun.

And yet- despite all these things- doing business in Ireland, is still preferable to France's labour laws, Hungary and Poland's authoritian regimes and the many different deficiencies elsewhere. Ireland is not a shining example to anyone- but for the MNCs- we are the 'least worst option' available to them. Being the least worst option- is not a platitude that I'd wish on anyone.

Best argument I’ve read here on why MNCs may not leave. I don’t agree but excellent argument.

awec · 27-11-2020 9:42pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Hungary may have a corporation tax rate of 9%- and France has a rate of 28%. The headline rate of tax means very little though- and what you really need to look at is the effective rate of taxation. Despite France's new rate of 28% (it was 33% up to this year)- their effective rate of tax is below Ireland's rate. As for Hungary- their actual rate is very close to their effective rate.

This highlights the inalienable fact- the tax that companies pay is just one item on a long list of considerations of where to base their operations. Ireland has a low rate- certainly- but France is being quite duplicitous in the manner in which their theoretical rate is eroded all the way down to low single figures- and yet they preach to us about how unfair we are.

The OECD tax proposals are awaited with bated breath by Ireland- we'd much rather have a coherent OECD playbook- than have to negotiate with the EU Commission on common EU taxation regimes (which are a national competency in any event).

As it stands- while Ireland has a lot to loose from tax reforms- unless Ireland pushes the message of effective rates of taxation, we, the people of Ireland are going to get seriously short changed (and we're already getting short changed- as a result of an inflated GDP rate being used to calculate our dues to the EU).

The bigger issue for MNCs in Ireland- and its going to get even worse in future- is a basic inability to financially compensate the Irish workforce, when our marginal rate of tax and deductions is North of 50% at income levels as low as 35k (meanwhile most workers on <23k don't pay any tax at all). This squeezed middle are actively pursuing a less productive outcome- because why work harder when over half your income is accruing to the taxman- extra holidays or pretty much any form of compensation that doesn't incur tax- is preferable.

And all the tax issues- are before you start to look at the frankly ridiculous cost of, well everything, in Ireland- to say nothing of the housing shortages, the lack of a coherent transport strategy, a planning system that enables silly objections to hold up nationally strategic developments- and quangoes laying claim to regulation of everything under the sun.

And yet- despite all these things- doing business in Ireland, is still preferable to France's labour laws, Hungary and Poland's authoritian regimes and the many different deficiencies elsewhere. Ireland is not a shining example to anyone- but for the MNCs- we are the 'least worst option' available to them. Being the least worst option- is not a platitude that I'd wish on anyone.

You are doing Ireland a disservice.

Ireland is one of the best countries in the world to do business. It is a more business friendly country than the US. We rank very highly across all the various categories, e.g property rights, tax burden, personal freedoms, corruption etc. Denmark and Sweden are the only EU countries ranked ahead of us (the UK are too).

People are far too quick to dismiss this country. Fact is we attract a lot of foreign companies because it's an excellent place to be. Tax is part of that, but it's only a part.

PropQueries · 27-11-2020 9:52pm

awec wrote: »

You are doing Ireland a disservice.

Ireland is one of the best countries in the world to do business. It is a more business friendly country than the US. We rank very highly across all the various categories, e.g property rights, tax burden, personal freedoms, corruption etc. Denmark and Sweden are the only EU countries ranked ahead of us (the UK are too).

People are far too quick to dismiss this country. Fact is we attract a lot of foreign companies because it's an excellent place to be. Tax is part of that, but it's only a part.

Not really. Most of Google’s R&D in Europe is done in the UK and Switzerland. Tax is the only reason they’re here and isn’t it due to an anomaly that was in the USA tax system regarding holding their cash here until they could repatriate their profits back to the United States under a more beneficial tax rate?

It’s why we primarily attract American multinationals and not EU multinationals. If the OECD global tax reforms change this next year, we’re in trouble IMO.

Hubertj · 27-11-2020 10:04pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Not really. Most of Google’s R&D in Europe is done in the UK and Switzerland. Tax is the only reason they’re here and isn’t it due to an anomaly that was in the USA tax system regarding holding their cash here until they could repatriate their profits back to the United States under a more beneficial tax rate?

It’s why we primarily attract American multinationals and not EU multinationals. If the OECD global tax reforms change this next year, we’re in trouble IMO.

Why are you lying again? You’ve been pulled up on this a a few times. It just makes your “arguments” even more stupid.

What other services does google provide in Ireland besides R&D as you call it? All you’re doing is plucking a couple of numbers off the net. You don’t know because you’re just making it up as you go along. Time and again you’re pulled up for being a liar but just continue.

Pelezico · 27-11-2020 10:06pm

I genuinely thought that tax policy was not up for discussion on this thread. Indeed contributors have been warned I the past about it. Oh well, I guess being a mod has its benefits.

Timing belt · 27-11-2020 10:09pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Then you should invest in Cairn Homes. Their share price is still below their IPO price in 2015. Maybe invest some in Hibernian REIT, Glenveagh and IRES REIT. All great value property related investments in Ireland at the moment if what you say is true.

Then maybe invest in BOI (another property related investment) as they’re currently trading at a FIFTH of their value in 2015.

Truth is the real investors know where the property market in ireland is heading as otherwise the above share prices wouldn’t be where they are.

BOI share price is 1/5 of 2015 because of the low rate environment. Banks can’t make money because they are awash with liquidity and nowhere to put it

Mic 1972 · 27-11-2020 10:10pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Not really. Most of Google’s R&D in Europe is done in the UK and Switzerland. Tax is the only reason they’re here and isn’t it due to an anomaly that was in the USA tax system regarding holding their cash here until they could repatriate their profits back to the United States under a more beneficial tax rate?

It’s why we primarily attract American multinationals and not EU multinationals. If the OECD global tax reforms change this next year, we’re in trouble IMO.

There are a lot of European companies here too, the also benefit from the low rate corporate tax, why would that be any different for American companies. The tax rate is the same and the system they use to justify their taxation being based in Ireland is also the same.

Pelezico · 27-11-2020 10:17pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

There are a lot of European companies here too, the also benefit from the low rate corporate tax, why would that be any different for American companies. The tax rate is the same and the system they use to justify their taxation being based in Ireland is also the same.

Without UK in EU, Ireland does lose a big brother in negotiations about tax policy. The future, as always, is uncertain.

Cyrus · 27-11-2020 10:43pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Or worse. Some executive in Google’s headquarters comes up with the idea that they can save €200 million a year by moving those 8,000 jobs at an average of €60,000 a year (maybe more?) in Ireland to Poland at an average of €35,000 a year.

Spoken as someone who obviously hasn’t experienced working with staff in countries like India and Poland when work has been moved their .

They won’t overtake us this generation, maybe next or the one after that but they are nowhere near at the moment in terms of capabilities, management skills etc

Pelezico · 27-11-2020 10:59pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Spoken as someone who obviously hasn’t experienced working with staff in countries like India and Poland when work has been moved their .

They won’t overtake us this generation, maybe next or the one after that but they are nowhere near at the moment in terms of capabilities, management skills etc

Management skills? Irish managers for the most part are administering the wishes of their American masters. This us fine but does not make us special.

PropQueries · 27-11-2020 11:00pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Why are you lying again? You’ve been pulled up on this a a few times. It just makes your “arguments” even more stupid.

What other services does google provide in Ireland besides R&D as you call it? All you’re doing is plucking a couple of numbers off the net. You don’t know because you’re just making it up as you go along. Time and again you’re pulled up for being a liar but just continue.

Well this article from the Irish Times in 2015 states that:

“The accounts show the bulk of staff during 2014, 1,809, were involved in sales and marketing, while 332 were involved in engineering and operations, and 436 were in the “general and administration” category. Total payroll costs in 2014 were €324 million, up from €273 million the previous year.”

Has this percentage of workers involved in ‘sales and marketing’ changed substantially since then or maybe you can find a more recent source on the overall breakdown of what the google staff are primarily involved in these days?

Link to article here:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/google-ireland-turnover-rises-to-18-3bn-on-increased-ad-revenue-1.2409160

PropQueries · 27-11-2020 11:08pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Spoken as someone who obviously hasn’t experienced working with staff in countries like India and Poland when work has been moved their .

They won’t overtake us this generation, maybe next or the one after that but they are nowhere near at the moment in terms of capabilities, management skills etc

I fully understand our Eastern European neighbours.

Their economies are incredibly more advanced than ours based on their resources. If they had our wealth over the past 30 years, most of the Eastern European countries would probably have bases on Mars right now IMO

I think Western European countries are seriously underestimating them and their abilities and their ability to outcompete us at every level at the moment or in the very near future.

Hubertj · 27-11-2020 11:08pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Well this article from the Irish Times in 2015 states that:

“The accounts show the bulk of staff during 2014, 1,809, were involved in sales and marketing, while 332 were involved in engineering and operations, and 436 were in the “general and administration” category. Total payroll costs in 2014 were €324 million, up from €273 million the previous year.”

Has this percentage of workers involved in ‘sales and marketing’ changed substantially since then or maybe you can find a more recent source on the overall breakdown of what the google staff are primarily involved in these days?

Link to article here:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/google-ireland-turnover-rises-to-18-3bn-on-increased-ad-revenue-1.2409160

Went through this with you a few months ago so not doing it again. This article is from 2015 and relates to 2014? How many additional business units has google established in Ireland since 2015?
Waste of time. Lie away all you like.

Financesetc. · 27-11-2020 11:11pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Couldn’t agree more. And of course some socialist to*sers will be up in arms about it.

You can got to the match but you cant watch.
You can come to the party but you cant speak.
You can go to school but not go to that class.
You can have your cake but you cant eat it.
Its class segregation at its finest.
These people should be given the same rights as the other tenants. Money isnt a way of right. Money isnt a way of class.
People deserve the same access to amenities as every other person regardless of their financial standing. This is not a hotel selling vip packages after all, its a home with amenities for the residents and should not be a home with amenities for only the rich.

Graham · 27-11-2020 11:13pm

Mod Note

Hubertj/pelezico, in light of recent posts please take a minute to re-familiarise yourself with previous mod notes/warnings.

Do not reply to this post.

Cyrus · 27-11-2020 11:16pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I fully understand our Eastern European neighbours and I can guarantee you they’re not as backward, unprofessional, inexperienced and uneducated as you seem to believe.

Their economies are incredibly more advanced than ours based on their resources. If they had our wealth over the past 30 years, most of the Eastern European countries would probably have bases on Mars right now IMO

I think Western European countries are seriously underestimating them and their abilities and their ability to outcompete us at every level at the moment or in the very near future.

Like I said spoken like someone who hasn’t experienced the realities of outsourcing basic tasks to Eastern Europe .

Cyrus · 27-11-2020 11:17pm

Pelezico wrote: »

Management skills? Irish managers for the most part are administering the wishes of their American masters. This us fine but does not make us special.

If that’s what you want to call it fine , I’d suggest your experience in this area is limited too, whatever it is we do it better than the poles .

Pelezico · 27-11-2020 11:26pm

Cyrus wrote: »

If that’s what you want to call it fine , I’d suggest your experience in this area is limited too, whatever it is we do it better than the poles .

This thread is degenerating. Whatever it is, we do it better than the Poles. Substitute jews negroes, gypsies and this statement takes on a much darker hue.

AssetBacked2 · 28-11-2020 12:03am

PropQueries wrote: »

Well this article from the Irish Times in 2015 states that:

“The accounts show the bulk of staff during 2014, 1,809, were involved in sales and marketing, while 332 were involved in engineering and operations, and 436 were in the “general and administration” category. Total payroll costs in 2014 were €324 million, up from €273 million the previous year.”

Has this percentage of workers involved in ‘sales and marketing’ changed substantially since then or maybe you can find a more recent source on the overall breakdown of what the google staff are primarily involved in these days?

Link to article here:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/google-ireland-turnover-rises-to-18-3bn-on-increased-ad-revenue-1.2409160

I would use Facebook as an example over Google. All of their revenue comes from advertising so in fact they are just a load of sales and customer service employees in Dublin!

I think Indeed might not even do anything at all in fact, they just host a message board where people post ads.

All of them are just a sham, about to disappear overnight!

Cyrus · 28-11-2020 12:18am

Pelezico wrote: »

This thread is degenerating. Whatever it is, we do it better than the Poles. Substitute jews negroes, gypsies and this statement takes on a much darker hue.

Grow up

Says a lot about you when you resort to that kind of nonsense when you’ve been called out for posting about things you have no experience in. Stick to hoping for a massive recession so your son can get a house .

Yourself and your pal have tried to put words in my mouth because yet again one of you has made something up and then you both run with it .

It would be funny if it wasn’t so utterly pathetic.

mcsean2163 · 28-11-2020 2:11am

Cyrus wrote: »

Spoken as someone who obviously hasn’t experienced working with staff in countries like India and Poland when work has been moved their .

They won’t overtake us this generation, maybe next or the one after that but they are nowhere near at the moment in terms of capabilities, management skills etc

Worked with polish, Czech and Serbian engineers. All brilliant and very professional. Lots of companies in Czech/ Poland.

Cyrus · 28-11-2020 8:41am

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Worked with polish, Czech and Serbian engineers. All brilliant and very professional. Lots of companies in Czech/ Poland.

I’m sure they are but do you have experience of outsourcing shared serviced to those locations? And if you do do you think they are on the cusp of taking Ireland’s position of US mncs locations of choice for setting up in EMEA which is what we are talking about ?

Cyrus · 28-11-2020 8:51am

PropQueries wrote: »

I fully understand our Eastern European neighbours and I can guarantee you they’re not as backward, unprofessional, inexperienced and uneducated as you seem to believe.

.

Highlight where I used any of those words, and if you can’t find them please amend your post.

PropQueries · 28-11-2020 9:38am

Cyrus wrote: »

I’m sure they are but do you have experience of outsourcing shared serviced to those locations? And if you do do you think they are on the cusp of taking Ireland’s position of US mncs locations of choice for setting up in EMEA which is what we are talking about ?

I think you should look up what the CEO of Eir said this week about Sligo.

US mncs can operate from anywhere as they bring the management skills with them IMO. If your company’s outsourcing experience was bad I would guess it was down to either going too cheap or just pure bad luck IMO

PropQueries · 28-11-2020 9:55am

Cyrus wrote: »

Highlight where I used any of those words, and if you can’t find them please amend your post.

Post amended. No insinuations were intended.

The_Conductor · 28-11-2020 10:33am

Guys- cop the hell on. I am not going to put another warning on thread. Move on- if you insist on pursuing this line of debating- there will be consequences.
No further warnings.

Cyrus · 28-11-2020 10:34am

PropQueries wrote: »

I think you should look up what the CEO of Eir said this week about Sligo.

US mncs can operate from anywhere as they bring the management skills with them IMO. If your company’s outsourcing experience was bad I would guess it was down to either going too cheap or just pure bad luck IMO

I’m not basing it one experience and it’s something I’ve discussed with several people from different industries , like I said in a generation or two yes , right now no.

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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