Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

random_banter

brisan wrote: »

Unless they are now going for a house twice as expensive as originally planned by the OP on their own

Sorry, yes, should have clarified that. I was planning to buy a smaller place suitable for a single person when I was on my own, maybe small two bed home. Sell it when the time came to upgrade. As an example, maybe it was going to be a 300k property. Now our needs are different, we've decided to go for a bigger family home, that hopefully we wouldn't need to leave. - room to expand, enough room to get stuck in during a major recession and if neg eq. hits, etc). So you'd be looking at something that could be twice the price.

It's not great to be a buyer in the area at the mo, very low supply all year, houses in walk-in nick are subject to bidding wars. I've been tracking selling prices in south dublin versus asking as they come up on the PPP. It's a 50/50 split on sales since March with some going up to 7% over asking and some 7% under asking. Generally it's the ones which need very little work that are going for over asking.


Viewing one today again. Wish us luck?

AdamD

Has anyone experience with exemptions?

Much likelihood of a single person on 65k with approx 50k deposit getting a slight exemption on the 3.5 times mortgage?

With no other major outgoings

Ursabear

I am in the exact same situation as you!! One frustrating thing is that my partner purchased an apt with his ex before the last crash which they have since sold. Even though he didn't avail of the FTB grant that time neither of us will qualify for it now. Good luck today �� We have decided to wait until next year. Any extra savings we will have from waiting will simply go to helping our shortened mortgage term as we are getting older, not to buy somewhere more expensive.

random_banter

AdamD wrote: »

Has anyone experience with exemptions?

Much likelihood of a single person on 65k with approx 50k deposit getting a slight exemption on the 3.5 times mortgage?

With no other major outgoings

I know someone similar to you who got one. To x4 times salary. It was in 2019, but it's possible. Through a broker with Ulster Bank.

FYI I was going to say it myself but application and exemption questions/ discussion are more suited to the Saving/Applying for A Mortgage Thread on here, which is great and very active. You might get better answers there. This one is more about the market conditions.

PropQueries

The state has entered into an agreement to convert student accommodation units into a direct provision centre for 350 people in Letterkenny.

There are over 60,000 holiday homes in Ireland. Why doesn't the state CPO a percentage of these (ones located near towns or villages with services in place) instead of exasperating an apparent existing housing problem in towns and cities?

Given that many people thought that they should have the right to use their residential properties for AirBnB etc., couldn't the argument be made that holiday home owners should then be allowed to convert their units from holiday homes into residential use?

Link to article on Highland Radio here: https://www.highlandradio.com/2020/11/26/exclusive-direct-provision-centre-to-be-established-in-letterkenny/

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

The state has entered into an agreement to convert student accommodation units into a direct provision centre for 350 people in Letterkenny.

There are over 60,000 holiday homes in Ireland. Why doesn't the state CPO a percentage of these (ones located near towns or villages with services in place) instead of exasperating an apparent existing housing problem in towns and cities?

Given that many people thought that they should have the right to use their residential properties for AirBnB etc., couldn't the argument be made that holiday home owners should then be allowed to convert their units from holiday homes into residential use?

Link to article on Highland Radio here: https://www.highlandradio.com/2020/11/26/exclusive-direct-provision-centre-to-be-established-in-letterkenny/

So if your not doing your wife can we CPO her for lads who are not having sex? All for the greater good right ? Also have you not been banging on here saying there is no housing crisis it was made up like Santa Clause

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

So if your not doing your wife can we CPO her for lads who are not having sex? All for the greater good right ?

Well, if they can CPO land for Greenways, I think they can CPO land for housing. Plus I said "apparent existing housing problem".

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

The state has entered into an agreement to convert student accommodation units into a direct provision centre for 350 people in Letterkenny.

There are over 60,000 holiday homes in Ireland. Why doesn't the state CPO a percentage of these (ones located near towns or villages with services in place) instead of exasperating an apparent existing housing problem in towns and cities?

Given that many people thought that they should have the right to use their residential properties for AirBnB etc., couldn't the argument be made that holiday home owners should then be allowed to convert their units from holiday homes into residential use?

Link to article on Highland Radio here: https://www.highlandradio.com/2020/11/26/exclusive-direct-provision-centre-to-be-established-in-letterkenny/

The state cannot just CPO whatever it wants.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, if they can CPO land for Greenways, I think they can CPO land for housing.

Your looking to CPO someones private property

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

The state has entered into an agreement to convert student accommodation units into a direct provision centre for 350 people in Letterkenny.

There are over 60,000 holiday homes in Ireland. Why doesn't the state CPO a percentage of these (ones located near towns or villages with services in place) instead of exasperating an apparent existing housing problem in towns and cities?

Given that many people thought that they should have the right to use their residential properties for AirBnB etc., couldn't the argument be made that holiday home owners should then be allowed to convert their units from holiday homes into residential use?

Link to article on Highland Radio here: https://www.highlandradio.com/2020/11/26/exclusive-direct-provision-centre-to-be-established-in-letterkenny/

For months now you have extolled your theory that there is no housing crisis: it doesn't exist.

So this should be a non issue......

fliball123

TheSheriff wrote: »

For months now you have extolled your theory that there is no housing crisis: it doesn't exist.

So this should be a non issue......

Props thinks we all have the memory of a gold fish

cnocbui

fliball123 wrote: »

Your looking to CPO someones private property

Of course, this is a socialist country, after all. Owning property is an interesting concept here, I'd hardly call it 'private' property. It's really property you hold so that the 'public' can tell you what yo can and can't do with it. Transfering the title to the public is just formalising the situation.

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

For months now you have extolled your theory that there is no housing crisis: it doesn't exist.

So this should be a non issue......

Well this action by the department kind of shows there's obviously no housing problem in Letterkenny anyway. If anything, the Letterkenny agreement shows there's apparently no housing problem in Co. Donegal, so that's some good news anyway.

In relation to CPOs, they go out of their way to CPO land and property for greenways, bus routes etc. and the recent Intel/farmer high court action is a more recent high profile example where they attempt to CPO land for any purpose they see fit.

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Well this action by the department kind of shows there's obviously no housing problem in Letterkenny anyway. If anything, the Letterkenny agreement shows there's apparently no housing problem in Co. Donegal, so that's some good news anyway.

In relation to CPOs, they go out of their way to CPO land and property for greenways, bus routes etc. and the recent Intel/farmer high court action is a more recent high profile example where they attempt to CPO land for any purpose they see fit.

Absolute nonsense.

You now have two posts on the same page, one saying there is no housing crisis, the other saying there is.

And that somehow letterkenny is representative of the housing issue on a national level.

Total nonsense.

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

Absolute nonsense.

You now have two posts on the same page, one saying there is no housing crisis, the other saying there is.

And that somehow letterkenny is representative of the housing issue on a national level.

Total nonsense.

Never equated Donegal to the national level.

PropQueries

Looks like Blackstone has ceded control of the Blanchardstown Shopping Centre to Goldman Sachs. It's interesting as it shows that the vulture funds will exit (and very very very quickly) the moment they don't see any further gains to be made in the Irish market. And, remember, between them, they purchased c. €200 Billion of business and property loans from Irish banks and NAMA between 2012 and 2016...

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/goldman-sachs-moves-to-take-over-blanchardstown-39761392.html

And in other news, a receiver has been appointed over two high-profile office buildings in Dublin including Donnybrook House which is a fairly new six-storey office block in Donnybrook.

The story is in The Times here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/receiver-appointed-for-u-i-and-colony-capitals-dublin-office-blocks-bj0tndr09

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

Looks like Blackstone has ceded control of the Blanchardstown Shopping Centre to Goldman Sachs. It's interesting as it shows that the vulture funds will exit (and very very very quickly) the moment they don't see any further gains to be made in the Irish market. And, remember, between them, they purchased c. €200 Billion of business and property loans from Irish banks and NAMA between 2012 and 2016...

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/goldman-sachs-moves-to-take-over-blanchardstown-39761392.html

And in other news, a receiver has been appointed over two high-profile office buildings in Dublin including Donnybrook House which is a fairly new six-storey office block in Donnybrook.

The story is in The Times here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/receiver-appointed-for-u-i-and-colony-capitals-dublin-office-blocks-bj0tndr09

Retail is a completely different sector to the housing market. It is suffering in UK, USA and Ireland.

There is little correlation between this and the health if the housing market. People are buying online.

PropQueries

Pelezico wrote: »

Retail is a completely different sector to the housing market. It is suffering in UK, USA and Ireland.

There is little correlation between this and the health if the housing market. People are buying online.

So the retail and office property market is in trouble but not residential. That makes sense as there’s no correlation between these three property sectors.

Remember, while the UK is leaving the EU, we’re not, so it won’t be long before those employees who were working in those office spaces (now in trouble but no correlation as you say) are shipped off to the other side of the EU. OECD global tax reforms, digital taxes and the CCCTB may expedite this process IMO.

As you know, that benefit to being in the EU i.e. freedom of movement, freedom to set-up or move your business to anywhere in the EU and still being able to sell your services throughout the EU etc. works both ways. May come back to haunt us IMO.

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

So the retail and office property market is in trouble but not residential. That makes sense as there’s no correlation between these three property sectors.

Remember, while the UK is leaving the EU, we’re not, so it won’t be long before those employees who were working in those office spaces (now in trouble but no correlation as you say) are shipped off to the other side of the EU. OECD global tax reforms, digital taxes and the CCCTB may expedite this process IMO.

As you know, that benefit to being in the EU i.e. freedom of movement, freedom to set-up or move your business to anywhere in the EU and still being able to sell your services throughout the EU etc. works both ways. May come back to haunt us IMO.

The retail sector has been struggling for years as people shop online. Employment is moving to areas of growth like amazon.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

So the retail and office property market is in trouble but not residential. That makes sense as there’s no correlation between these three property sectors.

Remember, while the UK is leaving the EU, we’re not, so it won’t be long before those employees who were working in those office spaces (now in trouble but no correlation as you say) are shipped off to the other side of the EU. OECD global tax reforms, digital taxes and the CCCTB may expedite this process IMO.

As you know, that benefit to being in the EU i.e. freedom of movement, freedom to set-up or move your business to anywhere in the EU and still being able to sell your services throughout the EU etc. works both ways. May come back to haunt us IMO.

I gave you links to who will be getting jobs when Brexit is done with Dublin being the right up there, you retorted and scoffed that the links were from 2016/17 etc so I gave you another 4 from October this year... Keep spinning there with the freedom of movement in the EU because funnily enough up until this year (which is an anomaly due to covid no one has been coming in or going in big numbers) we were getting more people coming to Ireland than leaving which I also proved to you via OCED stats. Ireland's most senior politicans have gone on record time and again to stat that the corpo tax will not be touched unless you have proof the contrary. Every country in the EU have control over their own taxes and the EU cannot impose a personal tax on any country who dont want it.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

I gave you links to who will be getting jobs when Brexit is done with Dublin being the right up there, you retorted and scoffed that the links were from 2016/17 etc so I gave you another 4 from October this year... Keep spinning there with the freedom of movement in the EU because funnily enough up until this year (which is an anomaly due to covid no one has been coming in or going in big numbers) we were getting more people coming to Ireland than leaving which I also proved to you via OCED stats. Ireland's most senior politicans have gone on record time and again to stat that the corpo tax will not be touched unless you have proof the contrary. Every country in the EU have control over their own taxes and the EU cannot impose a personal tax on any country who dont want it.

That’s the problem. When the new OECD global tax reform are approved and implemented our low corporation tax becomes effectively meaningless unfortunately.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

That’s the problem. When the new OECD global tax reform are approved and implemented our low corporation tax becomes effectively meaningless unfortunately.

Unless you are a tax expert and have studied the proposed reforms in detail I’ll call cow manure on this.

I think you have had read a paragraph of a newspaper article and based this theory on it.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

That’s the problem. When the new OECD global tax reform are approved and implemented our low corporation tax becomes effectively meaningless unfortunately.

Hungry has a lower tax rate 9% and probably cheaper pay so why are companies not setting up there and instead choosing Ireland?

L1011

Timing belt wrote: »

Hungry has a lower tax rate 9% and probably cheaper pay so why are companies not setting up there and instead choosing Ireland?

Because its a terrifying borderline fascist state?

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

Hungry has a lower tax rate 9% and probably cheaper pay so why are companies not setting up there and instead choosing Ireland?

I’m not talking about the lower corporation taxes. It’s the agreement where there will be both a global minimum tax and also that multinationals will be taxed based on where their sales take place.

We may get away with it again but I’m highly doubtful given that everyone is watching this space at the moment and Biden didn’t win that massive majority he thought he would which means Biden needs both the jobs and the taxes back in the USA before the next election or another Trump will come along to challenge him and the democrats IMO

Or worse. Some executive in Google’s headquarters comes up with the idea that they can save €200 million a year by moving those 8,000 jobs at an average of €60,000 a year (maybe more?) in Ireland to Poland at an average of €35,000 a year.

awec

It seems like every couple of weeks at this stage there is someone on here trying to convince themselves, and convince everyone else, that the multinationals are on the brink of upping and leaving.

When Trump was elected we were screwed, it was disastrous. But then nothing happened. And then Trump implemented his tax cut and we were screwed, that was going to be disastrous. Didn't happen. Brexit was going to make the UK more appealing to these companies, they'd all be flocking there and it'd be disastrous for us. Didn't happen. Now Biden is going to be disastrous. Or tax reform. Next month it'll be something else.

So far this year Amazon have announced 1000 new jobs, Microsoft announced 200 new jobs this week, and still there are people trying to convince everyone they're just going to leave.

This topic is genuinely beyond stupid at this stage. It is total nonsense being posted now as if it's grounded in reality, when it's completely fantastical stuff.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

It seems like every couple of weeks at this stage there is someone on here trying to convince themselves, and convince everyone else, that the multinationals are on the brink of upping and leaving.

When Trump was elected we were screwed, it was disastrous. But then nothing happened. And then Trump implemented his tax cut and we were screwed, that was going to be disastrous. Didn't happen. Brexit was going to make the UK more appealing to these companies, they'd all be flocking there and it'd be disastrous for us. Didn't happen. Now Biden is going to be disastrous. Or tax reform. Next month it'll be something else.

So far this year Amazon have announced 1000 new jobs, Microsoft announced 200 new jobs this week, and still there are people trying to convince everyone they're just going to leave.

This topic is genuinely beyond stupid at this stage. It is total nonsense being posted now as if it's grounded in reality, when it's completely fantastical stuff.

I take it you have never read the documentation on any investments you may have made: “Past performance is no guarantee of future results”.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

I take it you have never read the documentation on any investments you may have made: “Past performance is no guarantee of future results”.

Nice soundbite.

Your argument here is not grounded in any sort of reality. Posting it over and over and over again is not going to make it any more real.

"They are talking about potential tax reform, we're going to lose our MNCs" is like saying it might rain tomorrow, we need to build an ark.

mcsean2163

PropQueries wrote: »

I take it you have never read the documentation on any investments you may have made: “Past performance is no guarantee of future results”.

As someone who started working in electronics manufacturing in 2000 and then went through a redundancy, let go and another redundancy as the wheels fell off Irish manufacturing and China took over, I'd go a step further and say it happened before....

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Nice soundbite.

Your argument here is not grounded in any sort of reality. Posting it over and over and over again is not going to make it any more real.

"They are talking about potential tax reform, we're going to lose our MNCs" is like saying it might rain tomorrow, we need to build an ark.

Then you should invest in Cairn Homes. Their share price is still below their IPO price in 2015. Maybe invest some in Hibernian REIT, Glenveagh and IRES REIT. All great value property related investments in Ireland at the moment if what you say is true.

Then maybe invest in BOI (another property related investment) as they’re currently trading at a FIFTH of their value in 2015.

Truth is the real investors know where the property market in ireland is heading as otherwise the above share prices wouldn’t be where they are.