Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Cyrus

Another optimistically priced house, just down the road clonlost house, a full retrofitted circa 5,000 sq foot, A3 rated period house with a semblance of a garden and sea views from all of the front rooms sold for €2.2m 3 years ago, prices at this level have probably gone down 3-5% id guess.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/dalkey-period-home-updated-for-21st-century-living-for-2-4m-1.3051684

How in gods name do they expect to get close to 2m for this house when they have used all of the ground to do another development and its nearly 2000 sq feet smaller?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/mount-prospect-killiney-hill-road-killiney-co-dublin-a96-v09h/4468912

It might be somewhat interesting at say 1.5m where you trade the lack of space for the style of house. But itll never get 2m. Has been for sale for quite some time on and off.

Smouse156

Cyrus wrote: »

Another optimistically priced house, just down the road clonlost house, a full retrofitted circa 5,000 sq foot, A3 rated period house with a semblance of a garden and sea views from all of the front rooms sold for €2.2m 3 years ago, prices at this level have probably gone down 3-5% id guess.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/dalkey-period-home-updated-for-21st-century-living-for-2-4m-1.3051684

How in gods name do they expect to get close to 2m for this house when they have used all of the ground to do another development and its nearly 2000 sq feet smaller?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/mount-prospect-killiney-hill-road-killiney-co-dublin-a96-v09h/4468912

It might be somewhat interesting at say 1.5m where you trade the lack of space for the style of house. But itll never get 2m. Has been for sale for quite some time on and off.

Houses in this price bracket are nearly always overpriced and usually sell for below asking. I suspect they know this and are going high with asking to get offers above the 2m mark. Be interesting to see what it sells for

Qwerty2018

Going to hold off until next year to start applying for my mortgage.
Would need a mortgage exemption as I am looking to purchase a house for around 250,000.
I am a single teacher currently on 45,000 per year with a deposit saved of 50,000.
Was told here before that I had little chance with the current situation. Would this be anymore likely next year?

tigger123

Qwerty2018 wrote: »

Going to hold off until next year to start applying for my mortgage.
Would need a mortgage exemption as I am looking to purchase a house for around 250,000.
I am a single teacher currently on 45,000 per year with a deposit saved of 50,000.
Was told here before that I had little chance with the current situation. Would this be anymore likely next year?

Little chance of what happening with the current situation? The mortgage exception, or the mortgage approval?

woejus

Cyrus wrote: »

How in gods name do they expect to get close to 2m for this house when they have used all of the ground to do another development and its nearly 2000 sq feet smaller?

Madness. Considering the current owner made about €5.5m off the 4 houses. They had it up for €1.95m in 2015. It always seems dark, it's kind of in the middle of nowhere, no view (plenty of nearby properties with cracking views), boxed in on all sides by either roads, lanes or other gaffs.


https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/homes/on-the-market-in-killiney-five-bedroom-dublin-home-can-be-yours-for-135m-34220548.html

Qwerty2018

tigger123 wrote: »

Little chance of what happening with the current situation? The mortgage exception, or the mortgage approval?

Getting an exemption for over 3.5 times my salary

Cyrus

woejus wrote: »

Madness. Considering the current owner made about €5.5m off the 4 houses. They had it up for €1.95m in 2015. It always seems dark, it's kind of in the middle of nowhere, no view (plenty of nearby properties with cracking views), boxed in on all sides by either roads, lanes or other gaffs.


https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/homes/on-the-market-in-killiney-five-bedroom-dublin-home-can-be-yours-for-135m-34220548.html

yeah i run past it a lot, its a nice looking house, but as you say youd feel very boxed in, the site is a mismatch to the property, hence the price needs serious trimming.

brisan

Qwerty2018 wrote: »

Getting an exemption for over 3.5 times my salary

Never say never but exemptions are rare
Check with a broker and see what he says
January is normally a good month to get an exemption if they are being given out

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

I know of one apartment complex in swords where a REIT have contacted all owners and offered to buy them all. Once they get a whole block or near enough they go ahead with the purchase.

Huge profit in rentals when you dont have to pay tax.

It looks like we are taking the most expensive option to "solve/exacerbate" the housing issue. Of course buying existing stock does not help the issue it just makes it more difficult for those paying for their own housing

This must be what the government means when they say they are pro business.
Take taxpayers money and hand it over to business on incredibly poor value for money terms for the tax payer and the business pays no tax on their profits. These same business are one of the greatest beneficiaries of public infrastructure investment in transport and housing ancillary services

It seems lunacy when Europe is poking Governments to spend 0% money to stimulate growth and the government is operating in this manner

It is sickening to see a government use a homelessness problem as a conduit to enrich the already wealthy

Surely thi is economic treason

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

It looks like we are taking the most expensive option to "solve/exacerbate" the housing issue. Of course buying existing stock does not help the issue it just makes it more difficult for those paying for their own housing

This must be what the government means when they say they are pro business.
Take taxpayers money and hand it over to business on incredibly poor value for money terms for the tax payer and the business pays no tax on their profits. These same business are one of the greatest beneficiaries of public infrastructure investment in transport and housing ancillary services

It seems lunacy when Europe is poking Governments to spend 0% money to stimulate growth and the government is operating in this manner

It is sickening to see a government use a homelessness problem as a conduit to enrich the already wealthy

Surely thi is economic treason

you keep piping on about it - i have asked you a number of times, what additional Opex costs does the government incur to manage and maintain these propoerties over 25-30 years? How many additional public / civil servants will be required? What salaries, what pension liabilities?
"Economic treason" to suggest building houses is the only cost. Its spouted by SF and the gullible swallow it.
More public houses need to be built but the true cost of building at scale has to be determined.

tigger123

Qwerty2018 wrote: »

Getting an exemption for over 3.5 times my salary

Check with your bank I'd say. I haven't seen or heard anything saying that exemptions are not being given out.

My understanding is that each bank has a finite number of them to distribute each year, as per Central Bank Rules. Can't see how Covid 19 would effect that.

Ulster bank have said they are opening exception considerations again. https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/ulster-bank-cuts-fixed-rates-as-mortgage-price-war-intensifies-39783300.html

Other banks haven’t ruled them out either if you have a strong application.

shreko

Qwerty2018 wrote: »

Getting an exemption for over 3.5 times my salary

We just got approved for an exemption from PTSB.
It was for a 10% deposit instead of 20% for 2nd time buyers rather than the 3.5 times salary but still, they are giving them.

Pelezico

Why would anyone seek exemption from a rule which has been put in place to afford them protection?

They will come running back for a bailout when the transaction goes wrong. This does taxpayers little benefit.

In fact, an exemption represents a contingent liability for taxpayers and should be given only in the most exceptional circumstances.

fliball123

Pelezico wrote: »

Why would anyone seek exemption from a rule which has been put in place to afford them protection?

They will come running back for a bailout when the transaction goes wrong. This does taxpayers little benefit.

In fact, an exemption represents a contingent liability for taxpayers and should be given only in the most exceptional circumstances.

Well in this circumstance still staying in the 3.5 times salary limit and they are still giving 10% so it would be a safe enough bet it doesnt look like we will be seeing a 10% price drop anytime soon

Pelezico

Pelezico wrote: »

Why would anyone seek exemption from a rule which has been put in place to afford them protection?

They will come running back for a bailout when the transaction goes wrong. This does taxpayers little benefit.

In fact, an exemption represents a contingent liability for taxpayers and should be given only in the most exceptional circumstances.

The bank only give them in exceptional circumstances
Three and a half times salary is not the same as affordability.
3.5 times my salary does not take into account shift allowances, weekend and unsocial hours allowances, overtime.
I can afford a lot more than 3.5 times my salary and I won't be looking for any bailout, ever.
So there is nothing wrong with exemptions in certain circumstances. It's not the Celtic Tiger days, they are not handed out to everyone

It’s only available to a max of 20% of the banks mortgage loans in a year so it’s only available to the strongest applications. Applicants with secure well paid jobs, good savings history, unblemished credit history. The mortgage repayments are stress tested so you’d want to have a few thousand spare on top of the monthly mortgage payment. Usually a two earner application but they do consider single applicants.

Much different from the sub prime lending before the last crash.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

you keep piping on about it - i have asked you a number of times, what additional Opex costs does the government incur to manage and maintain these propoerties over 25-30 years? How many additional public / civil servants will be required? What salaries, what pension liabilities? "Economic treason" to suggest building houses is the only cost. Its spouted by SF and the gullible swallow it. More public houses need to be built but the true cost of building at scale has to be determined.

Sorry for piping on about it but singly it is the most important with regard to the future direction of property prices.

When staff were less educated and less paid, this was done efficiently enough

If we are incapable of doing it, have it outsourced. What do estate agents charge. Could a discount be negotiated on volume. Could renters contributions be collected through payroll, social welfare

Expand through affordable housing where the rent covers costs. Housing in Dublin, Galway and Cork appears to be unaffordable to those on the median wage or below, that's 50% of the working population. Massive opportunities here to set up a semi state to develop cost + rental model that can generate revenue for the state

Current policy does little to help the housing issue.
In most cases it is making it worse by dragging more people into difficulty through rising rents /prices.

The state has so many criteria in their favour to resolve this, manly land labour and capital availability
Inabilty to tackle this is either massive incompetence or pandering to vested interests. Both are reasons to step aside and let someone else have a go

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

Sorry for piping on about it but singly it is the most important with regard to the future direction of property prices.

When staff were less educated and less paid, this was done efficiently enough

If we are incapable of doing it, have it outsourced. What do estate agents charge. Could a discount be negotiated on volume. Could renters contributions be collected through payroll, social welfare

Expand through affordable housing where the rent covers costs. Housing in Dublin, Galway and Cork appears to be unaffordable to those on the median wage or below, that's 50% of the working population. Massive opportunities here to set up a semi state to develop cost + rental model that can generate revenue for the state

Current policy does little to help the housing issue.
In most cases it is making it worse by dragging more people into difficulty through rising rents /prices.

The state has so many criteria in their favour to resolve this, manly land labour and capital availability
Inabilty to tackle this is either massive incompetence or pandering to vested interests. Both are reasons to step aside and let someone else have a go

Listen I wouldnt let the public sector or semi state do what your suggesting. It would cost way to much for something like what you are looking for to be created. In the past the equation of public sector + A chance to get some gravy from the gravy train = disaster for the tax payer and usually the tax payer has no choice but to pay. Sorry but this is how it has always been cant see it changing as its in our DNA

combat14

looks like restaurants reopening here in doubt now (all restaurants just closed also in croatia)

going to be a lot of vacant premises next year if we dont get back up and running shortly

will be interesting to see if commercial rents fall further next year

Reins

Qwerty2018 wrote: »

Going to hold off until next year to start applying for my mortgage.
Would need a mortgage exemption as I am looking to purchase a house for around 250,000.
I am a single teacher currently on 45,000 per year with a deposit saved of 50,000.
Was told here before that I had little chance with the current situation. Would this be anymore likely next year?

https://www.independent.ie/news/central-bank-wont-bow-to-pressure-to-alter-mortgage-limits-39794682.html

cnocbui

Reins wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/news/central-bank-wont-bow-to-pressure-to-alter-mortgage-limits-39794682.html

If the government thinks the rules are not fair, then they should grow a pair and change them.

brisan

cnocbui wrote: »

If the government thinks the rules are not fair, then they should grow a pair and change them.

That's what got us where we ended up in 08
If the 3.5 times salary cap was relaxed house prices would rise to meet it

random_banter

The LTV restrictions are what's tough for us, and where exemptions seem to make sense. I was saving to have a minimum of 10-12% for my deposit as a FTB, but since then I decided to buy with my partner - who has taken out a mortgage before so then we then needed to come up with 20% deposit.

We're each contributing to the deposit equally so for him to come up with his half isn't as hard as for me (he's got some equity). Meanwhile for me it's literally trying to double my original deposit target. And when that's for a deposit on a home in South Dublin, it's not an insignificant deposit.

In times like that, an exemption on LTV can really help. We're looking to get one and put 15% down, which is more achievable without waiting another number of years. We're already in our mid-30s so really want to get a move on.

We're nowhere near clearing the 3.5x earning limit, more like looking to borrow 2.9x.

Would you consider that risky lending on behalf of the bank or foolish on behalf of us, the borrower?

If you are contributing equally to the deposit of 20% surely you still only have to save 10% yourself?

brisan

bubblypop wrote: »

If you are contributing equally to the deposit of 20% surely you still only have to save 10% yourself?

Unless they are now going for a house twice as expensive as originally planned by the OP on their own

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

Listen I wouldnt let the public sector or semi state do what your suggesting. It would cost way to much for something like what you are looking for to be created. In the past the equation of public sector + A chance to get some gravy from the gravy train = disaster for the tax payer and usually the tax payer has no choice but to pay. Sorry but this is how it has always been cant see it changing as its in our DNA

What I'm hearing on these boards about what is currently happening in sourcing social housing is the Formula 1 gravy train.

I can understand why people will defend it or not call it out for what it is.
There are people out there making a fortune out of this at the expense of the taxpayer. I'm sure those people don't want it to end. 20 year leases must sound like the gates of heaven opening in front of them

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

What I'm hearing on these boards about what is currently happening in sourcing social housing is the Formula 1 gravy train.

I can understand why people will defend it or not call it out for what it is.
There are people out there making a fortune out of this at the expense of the taxpayer. I'm sure those people don't want it to end. 20 year leases must sound like the gates of heaven opening in front of them

Well at least we wont be on the hook for 20/30 year pension that has to be services by the tax payer. I dont know what the answer is but its not giving it to the public service. How many billion a year do we pay for PS pay and pensions currently ?? and you want a new entity created to manage this.. Thanks but no thanks

IamMe33

Qwerty2018 wrote: »

Going to hold off until next year to start applying for my mortgage.
Would need a mortgage exemption as I am looking to purchase a house for around 250,000.
I am a single teacher currently on 45,000 per year with a deposit saved of 50,000.
Was told here before that I had little chance with the current situation. Would this be anymore likely next year?

According to this advice from Bonkers.ie

https://www.bonkers.ie/guides/mortgage/what-are-the-central-banks-lending-rules/#:~:text=For%20second%2Dtime%20and%20subsequent,lent%20out%20in%20come%20cases.

Whether you get an exemption will depend on your credit worthiness, the quality of your mortgage application and whether the lender still has room to give out an exemption.

Exemptions are often all used up by the middle of the calendar year, so if you want to apply for one, the earlier in the year that you apply for your mortgage the better.

Banks also tend to give exemptions to people on higher incomes, which means around €50,000 or above for a single applicant and €75,000 and above for a joint application.

It makes sense that banks would select for higher earners as that would increase their profit on a larger mortgage.
On paper, with the info you've given, your case would be borderline and depend on the quality of your opposition really.

I've heard others here quote that 4.5 times your gross salary is generally the maximum extent of an exemption.
If you were to be granted an exemption your mortgage limit would be:
4.5 x €45,000 = €202,000

Adding your saved deposit would bring this to €252,000, which would just bring you over the line of your target.
You would have to save another couple of grand to cover associated solicitor fees and stamp duty.


According to Central Bank guidelines as a first time buyer the maximum percentage of exemptions they can lend come under two cases: LTV and LTI (in bold below from the Central Bank's website)
I'm assuming you're a FTB.

https://www.centralbank.ie/consumer-hub/explainers/what-are-the-mortgage-measures

Loan-to-Income limits
The LTI limit restricts the amount of money you can borrow to a maximum of 3.5 times your gross income. So for example, a couple with a combined income of €100,000 you can borrow up to a maximum of €350,000.

Once again banks and other lenders have the freedom to lend a certain amount above these limits. In any one calendar year they can give an allowance to:

Up to 20% of the value of mortgages to first-time buyers
Up to 10% of the value of mortgages to second and subsequent buyers
Ireland is not alone in introducing these kinds of mortgage measures. Many other EU countries have introduced some form of mortgage regulation to help safeguard their national financial systems.

Getting your application in as early next year as possible would be your best bet to be one of those 20%.

Ush1

woejus wrote: »

Is this really your understanding of what makes areas such as Foxrock appealing? That other people have paid "a lot" to own a house there?

Seems more like bitterness to me.

Privacy, quiet, space, proximity to city centre... these are the differentiators that drive properties price variances.

That and no howyehs roaming the streets.

I'm not bitter at all, to each their own. It's not close to the city centre or coast and there's nothing IMO particularly attractive about the place. Even Dundrum has the town centre and a nice village.