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FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**
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24hrs on and a slight upgrade . . .
It's an upgrade in terms of the north atlantic wave heights, but in terms of conditions here the winds wouldn't really be severe on that run. Gusts up to 110 km/h on the west coast, standard winter stuff really.
There is a great deal of uncertainty at the moment though with this so I would wait a few more days to see how the models look then, all we can say now is there is an increased probability of wet/windy/stormy conditions next week but its too early to say more than that.0 -
It's a very potent north Atlantic storm packing hurricane force winds on the 12Z GFS. But it's peaking way off south of Greenland rather than anywhere near here on this run.
UKMO is similar but weaker.
We'll see what the ECM shows later, but starting to look less interesting for us based on those 2 models.0 -
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If that pattern backs west a few hundred miles we would be looking at very different weather conditions... Models still interesting to me at the moment when you consider stratosphere developments- im thinking a dry period will appear for the end of this month followed by a cold pattern setting in around the 5th-10th of December and lasting a while. Just my opinion based on background winter signals as well as wave activity etc in the stratosphere.
Dan
Just to continue on from this post from the 20th of November- while it looks like I was fairly accurate I thought we would be looking at a different type of cool/cold pattern by now. I think its going to be more of a slow burner though with some more mixed weather before a truely cold pattern emerges.
Potential still there for a big storm in the next ten days although I think we will avoid a 2013/14 winter style mini hurricane.
Mainly cold for the next week with just the odd milder day in between- periods of heavy rain/sleet/hail/snow will be common from the weekend on with a lucky few getting a dusting of snow even down to sea level at times I would think, especially in the north/north west. After the 10th of December I am thinking the polar vortex will be in a weak state and that the main lobe will transfer to Scandinavia/Siberia.. How much residual energy if any is left over NE Canada/Greenland is going to dictate wheather we see a straightforward route to colder weather with pressure rising over Greenland or a more messy setup. My thoughts on this combined with potential strat developments as we head later into this month make me think the last third will be the Coldest part of the month.
Encouraging runs today with a weakening Pv on the 12z ECM and progressively colder air being dragged in from the north west on all models.
Dan
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YouTookMyName wrote: »Any updates on next weeks potential Storm?
It's even further north on this morning's models. Centre is north of Iceland at 144 hours on the ECM :
But it's a very large area of low pressure so there may be secondary lows that might spin up closer to the time, we'll see.0 -
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One of the 12Z ensemble members throws out an absolutely insane sub-900mb low. Never seen anything like that in almost 10 years of looking at weather models. Low probability of happening... :P
For comparison, this was the 1993 Braer storm that holds the record for the most intense non-tropical Atlantic cyclone, estimated at 914mb and sustained winds close to 200 km/h at sea.
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maquiladora wrote: »One of the 12Z ensemble members throws out an absolutely insane sub-900mb low. Never seen anything like that in almost 10 years of looking at weather models. Low probability of happening... :P
:eek: :eek: :eek:
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icesnowfrost wrote: »Still looks nice......... hold.......hold.......HOLD!!!!!
Stay on Target....STAY ON TARGET.......
It'll end like the scene that quotes from probably though
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It's not the most exciting setup in the world but one week into the winter it's not a bad start, there should be some crisp frosty mornings this week with hill snow in the north and west. Here in London frost didn't melt all day in the shade today, I don't think that happened once all of last winter.
I haven't been keeping track of the stratosphere up to now but a quick look at the GFS shows that an SSW might be underway in a few weeks time, very much in line with netweathers forecast so potentially plenty of interesting times ahead yet 0 -
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UKMO keeping the cold theme going at day 6... Ive noticed that the GFS +168 to +240 charts are getting alot more amplified when they enter the UKMO's range at days 5/6. Also a nice warming showing up in the strat on the GFS 12z.
Day 6 UKMO - potential for snow there...
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Poor ECM run this evening for cold lovers. OK not exactly mild but nothing worthy of snow. Ongoing westerlies right up to the 18th December indicating cool, windy and showery conditions.
There appears no end to the Atlantic flow of weather anytime soon.
However who knows, MT has indicated that things could change dramatically in just over a week and the models might not have a hold on this pattern yet. A long wait this year for snow in Ireland?:rolleyes: I suppose the killer is that the evenings get brighter from the 22nd December and the sun gets more of a look in.......:mad:
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Poor ECM run this evening for cold lovers. OK not exactly mild but nothing worthy of snow. Ongoing westerlies right up to the 18th December indicating cool, windy and showery conditions.
There appears no end to the Atlantic flow of weather anytime soon.
However who knows, MT has indicated that things could change dramatically in just over a week and the models might not have a hold on this pattern yet. A long wait this year for snow in Ireland?:rolleyes: I suppose the killer is that the evenings get brighter from the 22nd December and the sun gets more of a look in.......:mad:
D
Jeez somebody's pessimistic tonight. As you said things could take a dramatic twist in the next few weeks. Watch this space 0 -
Hardly worth putting much stock in really but this is what the ECM Ensemble mean is showing day 15. (the run up to Christmas)
I would say at face value that that particular chart hints at a more or less continuation of the current norm with cool, polar westerlies being the dominant force. There is nothing to suggest going by this chart that we won't get some breif northerly incursions either but my main concern is the incessent stream of warm heights exiting the Canadian Maritimes, as this seems to help diverge substantially warm air away from the N Atlantic. And thats last thing a big storm lover like me wants to see.
Image from WeatherBell.New Moon
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