Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

TAFS are a point forecast....obviously CORK Airport was in the bullseye on the HARMONIE earlier, that has changed or moved in the subsequent run. It doesn't mean somewhere 10 miles further east isnt expected to receive a wind of that level

Exactly right and if there was an airport around Fermoy (Moorepark) or just south of there, they could have a TAF indicating peak gusts of 70 knots.

The peak wind gust on land at weather stations may be at Roches Point around 77 knots or around 140-150 km/hr. Some place along the coast east of there might hit 160-170 km/hr briefly, Waterford a little uncertain but 120-140 km/hr possible, mickger844posts get ready you may have a new station record.

Johnstown Castle could even hit 100 at this rate (not known for being well exposed there) meaning about 130 on exposed Wexford coasts.

Will be interesting to see how Moorepark and Gurteen do with wind gusts as the core moves inland. Will predict peaks around 55 knots for them. That could mean some better exposed locations (and around Lough Derg) could hit 60-65 knot gusts.

There will be trees down here and there in that general area even into eastern Galway, whether it's a moderate impact or major remains to be seen.

Needless to say I would stay off the roads tonight in most areas, after dark you can't see road obstructions until you're too close to stop.

As to ICON not picking this up, unfathomable really, the main meteorological detail of interest to me is that upper level conditions change very rapidly around the time Ellen approaches the south coast, a signature for explosive development potential. That upper level low that has been out to the west of Ireland for days is scheduled to reposition in a capture position leading to a rapid phase of Ellen into the larger circulation. Ellen then effectively becomes the main centre with the former main centre rotating around it from the southwest. That could then deepen when Ellen loses steam and lead to a second round of wind warnings this time for the west coast later Thursday.

From my point of view there was no real eastward trend, the models most trusted by met E happened to be those with the furthest west tracks. Also a slight shift east is not a downgrade except in the limited sense that places now to the west of the developing track will have a downgrade in their peak gusts. They will on the other hand get more rain than might have been predicted previously.

Take this very seriously indeed if you live or are situated between Cork and Wexford and all the way inland up to east Galway, Sligo, Roscommon.