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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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munsterlegend

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

From my point of view there was no real eastward trend, the models most trusted by met E happened to be those with the furthest west tracks. Also a slight shift east is not a downgrade except in the limited sense that places now to the west of the developing track will have a downgrade in their peak gusts. They will on the other hand get more rain than might have been predicted previously.

Take this very seriously indeed if you live or are situated between Cork and Wexford and all the way inland up to east Galway, Sligo, Roscommon.

When you say cork do you mean cork city or county? I presume county!

SomethingElse

grinder23 wrote: »

Hi Guys haven't a clue about any of this but I never see Longford mentioned lol anyone any idea what we could expect?

Expect a risk of everything you own being lifted overnight. Don't expect any winds though.

John Hutton

Friend of mine camping in a tent on Achill island tonight - this is madness yes? Or am I overreacting?

Graces7

Hard rain now, borne in on a rising breeze. ie a baby gale!

The sky is a uniform grey; lying low in almost every direction. No mountains. Just grey cloud. Flat above a flat grey ocean. The air is stifling. Grey.

And heavier rain. Is it beginning? Love the sound of it.

Stay safe.

PS If I fall asleep I will miss the storm however bad it is. A giftedness since childhood...

DOCARCH

Mod Note: No more general debate in relation to warnings in this thread please.

I will start moving posts here: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057918791

Shadylou

What has been downgraded, everything still seems to be the same on the met.ie website????

Seamai

Two hours to 9pm and was just out to put the patio furniture in the shed, just a slight drizzle.
I'm looking out and it's absolutely calm, not the slightest bit of movement, almost eerie.

pad199207

Rapidly deepening

SleetAndSnow

Wind has died down again in West Cork along with the rain going off again, calm before the storm v2

squarecircles

pad199207 wrote: »

Rapidly deepening

christ it looks like a savage day across iberia,how i wish i were there,in that blinding UV light and blue azure skies ,wading into calm warm water,among attractive tanned people with a beer in my hand.

i remeber speaking to my peruvean friend in Barcelona back in february and he felt a bit down because it was rainy and chilly for a few days,they dont know theyre alive.Hed have to be drugged to the eyeballs living here.

2020 is pure pigmuck.

September might be beautiful ,who knows.Lets hope so.

sdanseo

12Z ECM out. Upgrades now all but certain for the SE and probably the midlands.

leahyl

sdanseo wrote: »

12Z ECM out. Upgrades now all but certain for the SE.

Cork still red?

JCX BXC

Strangely calm in West Clare this evening, a breeze starting to pick up now, have gone for a walk as rain seems imminent.

irishgeo

John Hutton wrote: »

Friend of mine camping in a tent on Achill island tonight - this is madness yes? Or am I overreacting?

think it may dodge this one, depends on what part of the island he is. some areas sheltered from a SE wind.

M.T. Cranium

If we don't have any forum members already in Dungarvan to Youghal especially near the coast there, perhaps somebody with a vehicle within 2 hours drive might like to do a live on the spot report as landfall seems most likely to be close to 9:30-10:00 p.m. on current developments.

Wherever the low crosses the coast, about 30 miles east of there would be the maximum wind and storm surge impact zone. I would imagine there's some seaside caravan parks in that general area, those should probably be toured by local police and visitors warned to take shelter (perhaps this is already happening).

If we do have current thread readers in that impact zone, could you let us know where you are situated and give us hourly or more frequent updates starting around 8 p.m. TIA.

nacho libre

While the west and parts of north west will most likely escape the worst of this storm, those areas could see a brief period of fairly strong winds later on Thursday after Storm Ellen is gone. So those dismissing taking precautions as pointless might want to reconsider that kind of thinking.

hurikane

markjbloggs wrote: »

If these trends continue, this should be hugely embarrassing for Met Eireann. Not the first time they have cried wolf in recent years of course but the impact of their warning on struggling tourism businesses should leave them open to some very difficult questions

You reckon we’ll need a tribunal?

sdanseo

leahyl wrote: »

Cork still red?

East of the city, by that map, very much so.

My opinion - Waterford will go red, Wexford and most of the midlands will go Orange.

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Cork still red?

East Cork is anyway.

The distances are so small it really is a nowcast at this stage. They get hurricanes wrong in USA right up to the last minute.

Meteorite58

For the record.

Oneiric 3

Interestingly, the 'ICON Flash' has stronger winds for the south tomorrow evening than at any time overnight (gust speed forecast for 7pm tomorrow)

[Deleted User]

Not even a breeze here in Cork city and very warm, just waiting for it to kick off ,as long as everyone stays safe I like a good storm , a mix of excitement and fear atm.

leahyl

sdanseo wrote: »

East of the city, by that map, very much so.

My opinion - Waterford will go red, Wexford and most of the midlands will go Orange.

Ah right, always seems to miss the city where I am :-( guess I should be grateful!

SleetAndSnow

Looks like the coasts could still get 100-110kmh gusts which are no joke at the same time, definitely don't untie your stuff anyway

Viewtodiefor

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If we don't have any forum members already in Dungarvan to Youghal especially near the coast there, perhaps somebody with a vehicle within 2 hours drive might like to do a live on the spot report as landfall seems most likely to be close to 9:30-10:00 p.m. on current developments.

Wherever the low crosses the coast, about 30 miles east of there would be the maximum wind and storm surge impact zone. I would imagine there's some seaside caravan parks in that general area, those should probably be toured by local police and visitors warned to take shelter (perhaps this is already happening).

If we do have current thread readers in that impact zone, could you let us know where you are situated and give us hourly or more frequent updates starting around 8 p.m. TIA.

Few miles east of Dungarvan here 300 mts from coast light breeze drizzle blowing

sdanseo

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Interestingly, the 'ICON Flash' has stronger winds for the south tomorrow evening than at any time overnight (gust speed forecast for 7pm tomorrow)

That big number will be Carrauntoohil though, 1,041m up, won't it?

sunbabe08

Will there be any thunder and lightening from this?

Burts Bee

I'm in North Cork, any idea what to expect? Fairly elevated with not much shelter!

spookwoman

Tramore high tide gone about 45mins and nothing to see on the camera. Rain for fog has just blocked off any view.
Waterford itself muggy with a bit of a breeze starting

squarecircles

id love if someone wrote a thesis why the most severe storms always impact the southern third of the country,the really destrutive ones.

there seems to be a narrow swathe of the country from south mayo through the north midlands to dublin and the northeast that never get a severe storm as much as the northwest -sligo donegal and the southern portion of the country.