Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Junkyard Tom · 17-05-2019 7:10pm

It would be no harm if pro-Brexit people were in command as HMS Britannia sails off toward the sunny uplands -- it would, at least, discredit those who had an inflated sense of Britain's 2%-of-the-world-economy position.

17-05-2019 7:17pm

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

It would be no harm if pro-Brexit people were in command as HMS Britannia sails off toward the sunny uplands -- it would, at least, discredit those who had an inflated sense of Britain's 2%-of-the-world-economy position.

With a population of approximately 1% of the global population, 2%-of-the-world-economy position isn't that bad.

Junkyard Tom · 17-05-2019 7:42pm

Deleted User wrote: »

With a population of approximately 1% of the global population, 2%-of-the-world-economy position isn't that bad.

While it's functioning with the clout of the EU.

bilston · 17-05-2019 9:16pm

So Boris Johnson likely to be the next PM.

So No Deal Brexit and war with Iran before the end of summer.

#goodtimes

Akrasia · 17-05-2019 9:53pm

bilston wrote: »

So Boris Johnson likely to be the next PM.

So No Deal Brexit and war with Iran before the end of summer.

#goodtimes

At least he voted in the local elections in london this year. He has a good sense of civic duty does our Boris

Rain Ascending · 17-05-2019 9:55pm

bilston wrote: »

So Boris Johnson likely to be the next PM.

Let's take your first prediction, namely that Boris will be the next PM.

If enough MPs hold their nose and vote for him to get to the final two then yes, I'd agree he would be the clear favorite of the Conservative party members. So there's a good chance that he'll be the next leader of the Tories.

But he is by far the most divisive of the main leadership contenders ... among Tory MPs. All it would take would be for a handful of Tory MPs to abstain on a vote of confidence to trigger a general election. Boris is well capable of evoking that reaction. So, I don't believe he would be PM for long, even if he got that far.

Water John · 17-05-2019 9:56pm

Well the UK would have a head start on most countries, since they pillaged many of them over the last few hundred years.

briany · 17-05-2019 10:03pm

bilston wrote: »

So Boris Johnson likely to be the next PM.

So No Deal Brexit and war with Iran before the end of summer.

#goodtimes

The Conservative party does not support a no-deal Brexit. If Johnson runs on a platform of fire and bluster, he's only going to divide the Conservative party even further than it already is. He'll unite Remain and pragmatic Leave against him, and be seen to be pandering to the hardcore minority that is the ERG. He'll be a total lame duck, and if parliament was already able to wrest control of the process from the government once, might they try again?

It's no wonder Theresa May has been saying a whole lot of nothing in her speeches - you land too squarely on either side of the debate and you're screwed. Rather, you're screwed even harder than if you sit on the fence. I'd like to think Johnson would have a bit more cunning than to think he can be a strongman in this and force Brexit. The whole process is much bigger than he is.

Capt'n Midnight · 17-05-2019 10:10pm

bilston wrote: »

So Boris Johnson likely to be the next PM.

So No Deal Brexit and war with Iran before the end of summer.

#goodtimes

Who says Boris is in the running ? It's just PR.

May hasn't delivered the will of the people, and hasn't got to the next stage of Brexit and hasn't reached the December deadline or the next scheduled election. So can try to cling to power-lessness limpet like for a while without "breaking promises"

Also Boris got back stabbed by Grove last time and May got in because "the leader of the house" tired "speaking as a mother" expect similar from another leadership contest that's cost the UK 2% of GDP and put the motor industry into a tailspin, so far.

bilston · 17-05-2019 10:17pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Who says Boris is in the running ?

Well he has said he will run and will most likely be the favourite amongst the Tory grassroots. It's possible that many MPs who wouldn't be naturally supportive of him will end up holding their noses and backing them when their local parties start pressuring them, especially if the Tories completely tank in next week's Euro election.

briany · 17-05-2019 10:49pm

bilston wrote: »

Well he has said he will run and will most likely be the favourite amongst the Tory grassroots. It's possible that many MPs who wouldn't be naturally supportive of him will end up holding their noses and backing them when their local parties start pressuring them, especially if the Tories completely tank in next week's Euro election.

The Tories are well-expected to tank in the Euros. They've barely even run a campaign for it. It's not going to come as some shock to them that'll necessitate a great change of tack.

It would be more likely they'd vote for Boris because of the pressure from the constituencies, but there are Remain MPs who've voted against their constituents wishes before, and they might even be willing to face deselection as Dominic Grieve has in order to vote their conscience, especially on anything so pivotal for the UK's future as Brexit is.

listermint · 18-05-2019 7:17am

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It’s not recently but the first time I was in London I met people who were amazed I was Irish and ‘normal’. They thought all Irish were ‘pikeys’.

I had hoped that level of ignorance would have disappeared but you look now and it’s there and it’s malignant. Fear of the other lead by taboids. It’s disgusting and astounding to see the likes of Farage and Robinson allowed to stir all this up.

Have you considered you were talking to a very small bunch of Muppets.

I've never had the same experience anywhere from any English person.

Stop moaning ffs · 18-05-2019 7:32am

listermint wrote: »

Have you considered you were talking to a very small bunch of Muppets.

I've never had the same experience anywhere from any English person.

As I said it wasn’t recently. I was in my teens. But that sense of superiority and complete ignorance especially when it comes to Ireland is something I’ve always gotten from English even when they were sound enough.

CelticRambler · 18-05-2019 7:55am

listermint wrote: »

Have you considered you were talking to a very small bunch of Muppets.

I've never had the same experience anywhere from any English person.

I have. More than once. Not surprisingly, they would all correspond to the stereotypical description of a Leave voter.

Enzokk · 18-05-2019 10:00am

Here is Tony Connelly on where we are right now with Brexit.

Brexit: the EU looks on in "suspended disbelief"

The view seems to be that it will be chaos whichever way this goes unless the UK approves of the WA. If May goes and a Brexit PM is in charge and he or she may not seek a further extension it would lead to no deal. But there is a majority in parliament to avoid this, so chaos.

If the UK goes ahead with plan to vote on the Withdrawal Ageement Bill to show MPs what the WA actually means it could backfire if they tinker too much with amendments and it actually changes the WA. The EU will reject that and we will have, chaos.

Add in to this the EU elections and what it will mean for all the parties, basically we don't know what will be happening and this could get very messy.

10000maniacs · 18-05-2019 10:23am

Johnson is a laughing stock in Europe. He is portrayed as a clown on German TV. Whatever chance of a deal with the EU will be put to bed with the election of Johnson. Sterling has fallen 4 points since Wednesday as investors are resigned to the possibility that Johnson will drive UK over the cliff. Scottish and NI turbulence will follow as certainly as night follows day.

Capt'n Midnight · 18-05-2019 10:26am

Tony has a nice rundown

Brexit: the EU looks on in "suspended disbelief"

yes if it got down to it in the end the local party members would probably elect a Brexiteer but that's heading towards deck chair attendant on the Titanic

the gist is that a Tory leadership contest would burn up most of the extension time and nothing would have changed in Parliament.

and I can still see May stalling , if she stalls long enough then the contest won't be completed in time to give her replacement any options other yea or nay on the WA

Patser · 18-05-2019 10:43am

I'd say the level of humiliation in the European Elections might force changes quicker than thought

1 poll has the Tories at 9%!! If that transpired they might just chuck May quickly under a bus and try get in some sort of motivator to take on Farage - so probably Boris and pro Brexit. At least they'd have a goal.

More hopefully though is that a Labour collapse might, finally get rid of Corbyn. Allow Labour to go strongly remain, and lead to a unified remain opposition as the Tories still quibble. Get a few defectors from Tory implosion and a 2nd referendum or revoke.

I'm still waiting for the day the UK voter sees through Farage and the Brexit party. They are a single issue party, making huge undeliverable promises on that issue, with no other plans. Giving him results will give Farage oxygen, but at some point there must be a spotlight on results as well, an expectation of something delivered.

CelticRambler · 18-05-2019 12:01pm

Patser wrote: »

I'd say the level of humiliation in the European Elections might force changes quicker than thought.

I wouldn't count on it. It'll be too easy to write it off as a European election, and therefore nothing to do with any Red-White-and-Blue British government or party.

More likely, IMO, is by the time we get to Halloween more and more EU council members will be resigned to the fact that the parties in the UK are incapable of reaching any kind of compromise with each other, and that Westminster is incapable of governing the country effectively. That'll apply equally to Ireland and the other smaller countries most affected by Brexit, but there'll be a reluctant acceptance that it's time to not invite or encourage the UK to look for a further extension.

From my own point of view, having watched (the lack of) developments since the previous "cliff edge", I am more convinced than ever that the only future for GB on the European (EU) stage, is to break up and come back as individual nations.

A Dub in Glasgo · 18-05-2019 12:22pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

On the comment "how can the voters make such an absurd choice as Brexit"?

Brexit is not primarily about leaving Europe for English working class voters. That's a distant second, barely an after thought, for most in my opinion.

It's about uncontrolled immigration in to their communities and their fears.

The former Labour government oversaw enormous demographic change in places like Birmingham, Manchester, Sunderland etc...these are the Labour heartlands.

That can't be reversed.

This is why I don't see any chance of Brexit being reversed.

Brexit is the out working of a working class voter base in England, worried and angry, that has been at the coalface of immigration. It actually has little to do with the EU or how it works in my opinion.

You could say the previous Labour government under Blair/Brown laid the tracks for this mess more than the Tories.

I am always reminded of this piece

https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/971482516912836608

Capt'n Midnight · 18-05-2019 1:12pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I am always reminded of this piece

https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/971482516912836608

Reminds me of this from 40 years ago. This is why we need the arts and philosophy and SciFi so we can tell people we've gone over that one already.

'Your death will stand as a landmark in the continuing struggle to liberate the parent land from the hands of the Roman Imperialist aggressors, excluding those concerned with drainage, medicine, roads, housing, education, viniculture, and any other Romans contributing to the welfare of Jews of both sexes and hermaphrodites. Signed on behalf of the P.F.J., etcetera.'

Leroy42 · 18-05-2019 1:27pm

30 years is the new short term, apparently.

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1129641754486030338?s=09

Capt'n Midnight · 18-05-2019 3:15pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

30 years is the new short term, apparently.

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1129641754486030338?s=09

To put that into context for pensioners
Compared with 2015, projections for life expectancy are now down by 13 months for men and 14 months for women.

For those who haven't retired yet the pension age was already due to go up to 68 and possibly even 70 over time.

An Ciarraioch · 18-05-2019 3:39pm

Two-thirds of the Tory membership want the next leader to leave on a no-deal Brexit:

http://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1129752480101928960

Water John · 18-05-2019 3:43pm

Less than 100,000 unelected members of the Tory Party to decide the future of the people of the UK.

badtoro · 18-05-2019 4:42pm

I've been of the opinion since it was mooted that the extension was an error in judgement. I understand that some in the EU want to be in the position of saying "We went to every length we could", but with the poll in the UK I'd have to ask "At what cost?". How fun it'll be to have a slew of Brexit Party MEPs in Brussels if (in the extremely unlikely event) the UK ends up staying, and until October or what ever other date if they don't.

The better course might have been to let them off earlier this year. Bully for them if all goes well, if not then the citizens of the UK can eat Farage and his ilk alive. I'm not at all sure prolonging this farce helps heal the UK or the EU.

Sometimes, when reason doesn't work, the only way to educate people is to let them fall flat on their face.

Enzokk · 18-05-2019 5:09pm

badtoro wrote: »

I've been of the opinion since it was mooted that the extension was an error in judgement. I understand that some in the EU want to be in the position of saying "We went to every length we could", but with the poll in the UK I'd have to ask "At what cost?". How fun it'll be to have a slew of Brexit Party MEPs in Brussels if (in the extremely unlikely event) the UK ends up staying, and until October or what ever other date if they don't.

The better course might have been to let them off earlier this year. Bully for them if all goes well, if not then the citizens of the UK can eat Farage and his ilk alive. I'm not at all sure prolonging this farce helps heal the UK or the EU.

Sometimes, when reason doesn't work, the only way to educate people is to let them fall flat on their face.

I agree that it looks like the extension should not have been granted as it does look like you will either have a bunch of Brexit MEPs in the EU Parliament or it will end up with no-deal in any case in October. But the EU could not have looked their own voters in the eye if they didn't offer the UK every opportunity to either reverse the course of action or if they still want to leave the EU to make it as orderly as possible.

A no-deal Brexit is going to hurt, it is going to be devastating for a lot of people so there was the only choice to the EU to offer the extension, even if it is in vain. I have felt more than a few times that the EU should have told the UK to go and get stuffed, but as the responsible adults in the room they have done the responsible action as well.

Enzokk · 18-05-2019 5:20pm

We had a poll earlier that was extremely depressing reading, but here is another that is not as bad, at least not for Labour. We can see that while the Brexit Party has a lead, it does seem that neither Remain or Leave has a clear mandate, whatever Labour or the Conservatives are trying to tell us.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1129454599184818179

In this poll we have Brexit and UKIP and the Conservatives (Leave) on 46%, and the Libdems, Greens and Change UK on 26% for Remain. The difference between the parties is Labour on 25% where we know the members and voters are overwhelmingly for Remain, yet the leadership has lost their brains and want to leave.

Zubeneschamali · 18-05-2019 5:22pm

The EU should act in its own best interests - the best thing for the EU is that the UK remains, next best that they take the WA, and worst is No Deal Brexit. So the EU should obviously offer an extension whenever the alternative is No Deal, since No Deal now is the worst possible outcome.

If, if Boris or Raab is the next PM (Sweet Divine Jesus between us and all harm) they might try and pull a No Deal Brexit, and some cockup might prevent Westminster from yanking the wheel from their hands and steering away from the cliff, and a No Deal Brexit might happen in October.

But even if it does, that is less harmful for the EU than a Hard Brexit last April or March would have been. And if they get an extension to 2020 and then go No Deal, that will be less harmful to us again.

And who knows? Maybe the horse will learn to sing.

CelticRambler · 18-05-2019 5:26pm

badtoro wrote: »

I've been of the opinion since it was mooted that the extension was an error in judgement.

That's one way of looking at it, but ...

Enzokk wrote: »

I agree that it looks like the extension should not have been granted as it does look like you will either have a bunch of Brexit MEPs in the EU Parliament or it will end up with no-deal in any case in October.

... apart from the EU having the moral high-ground ("we did everything we could to help you get the WA agreed") the Halloween extension might serve a useful purpose in giving the EU even more justification to not offer/agree any further extension: if the UK returns a significant number of Brexity MEPs, there's a risk they might be able to form an obstructionist bloc with the hard-right, europhobic MEPs elected by other countries. It looks like the percentage of such candidates coming from the UK is going to be higher than from any other country, so (a) it'll be a direct insult to the EU and could be interpreted as "the will of the people" regardless of what the PM of the day says; but more importantly, (b) re-allocating those seats to the wait-listed candidates will almost certainly reduce the influence of the trouble-makers in favour of the traditional blocs.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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