Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Adamcp898

Hurrache wrote: »

So Thomas Cook have lost €1.5 Billion in 6 months, will be selling off 105 planes, said that 566 of their stores could close, and 150 staff laid off from their head office.

And they definitively said it's due to Brexit uncertainty.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48292318

They wrote €1.1 billion of that off the value of their merger with My Travel.

I would imagine the ability of their consumer base to leave their own country is a bit of a headache alright for a travel agent.

Hurrache

SNIP.

ancapailldorcha

Hurrache wrote: »

SNIP.

Don't post any more snappy comments please.

Adamcp898

I missed whatever the "snappy" comment was, but if it was directed at myself then I should clarify that I wasn't being glib with my post above.

ancapailldorcha

Adamcp898 wrote: »

I missed whatever the "snappy" comment was, but if it was directed at myself then I should clarify that I wasn't being glib with my post above.

The warning wasn't directed at yourself.

Enzokk

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Seeing the rise in popularity of Farage's new party, one of the leading advocates of a No Deal crashout, my sympathy for the British people is all but exhausted and also my respect for their levels of intelligence.

Have they learned nothing from the last few months and the discussions around how a No Deal crash out would be a disaster?

The British masses are easily led astray by the simple minded rhetoric of Farage.

Some are following him because they are in love with the personality. But I think he will be found out as his interviews has been getting tougher recently and as his popularity grows the questioning will become more intense. It is a dangerous game the media is playing, but they are using his popularity for their own benefit. It came back and bit the USA with Trump, let's hope it doesn't happen with Farage and the UK.

Here is an example of the type of questioning you expect him to face more often in the future, especially when you consider that he is on record on wanting to get rid of the NHS in favour of a insurance health system.

https://twitter.com/jonesarwyn/status/1128952415833796609

CelticRambler

It's not just the Brits ... Today's Guardian has this report on an EU-wide survey suggesting that the majority of Europeans think the EU will collapse within 20 years. Half way down the article is this observation:

As many as a third of voters in France and Poland said they believed a war could be possible.

That sentiment was notably strong among people planning to abstain or vote for extremists next week.

Chicken or egg? "I believe that a war between EU countries is possible, so I'm voting for those most likely to make it happen" - weird logic, but pretty much the same anti-establishment sentiment that's on show in the UK.

The mentality on this side of the Channel (Picardy, where I'm working at the moment) is exactly the same as some of ye have described in certain parts of England. My co-worker, living quite happily in the 1950s even though she wasn't born till a decade later, was literally spitting at the screen when Macron appeared on TV on Monday. She's voting Le Pen next week. Why? Because she believes MLP can deliver the utopia described in her manifesto. The Brexit farce hasn't shaken her belief in unicorns; the numerous signs of a positive change to France's fortunes under Macron's guidance count for nothing in her opinion, because today's parcel was delivered by a "Mahmoud". The same "Mahmoud" doing an honest day's work is apparently responsible for all the pure-white, skangery-type meth-heads that reguarly harass her daughter in the street ... And it's completely lost on her that her boss has employed an immigrant for this contract because the last three French natives were far from satisfactory.

I think that survey and this anecdote show that "we've had it too good" for too long, at a pan-European level and at an individual level; but also that the EU has been somewhat complacent in going about its business quietly and efficiently, tolerating all the nonsense spouted by the British press for so long, and not making a bigger deal out of what it does to make life better for EU residents.

An Ciarraioch

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1128991403244236800

UKIP got 28% in Wales in 2014, so actually a slight swing to Remain.

reslfj

Enzokk wrote: »

... especially when you consider that he is on record on wanting to get rid of the NHS in favour of a insurance health system.

https://twitter.com/jonesarwyn/status/1128952415833796609

Farage also said that "only 12% of the entire UK economy is exporting goods to the EU(27) market."

One may question this exact figure 12, when talking about goods only, but let me go on.

The EU27 market is about 50% of total UK export (without including movement of financial gold to Swiss and Asian banks).

How will the UK pay for its absolutely needed imports without income in €, US $, Japanese Yen, Chinese Renminbi or Swedish Kroner - coming as payment for UK's export (for profit) of goods, services, capital and UK citizens working outside the UK - very many on FoM conditions in other EU countries?

The UK has enough problems with productivity and being competitive on other markets as it is now.

Lars

PS! Movement of financial gold out of the UK is counted as export, but the only UK value added is a small security transport from a bank to the airport.

An Ciarraioch

May gets a reprieve until the next Withdrawal Agreement vote:

http://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1129020750688661504

jogdish

Can someone explain to me the difference between "the withdrawal agreement bill" and "meaningful vote", also when was the first reading of WAB ? and also what do 1st/2nd/3rd readings mean?

Leroy42

WAB is the actual legislation which would have been enacted had the vote been successful. From what I can understand, TM is moving straight to the WAB to get around the Speakers contention that the same vote cannot be re-run.

So they are not having another meaningful vote, rather they will vote on the basis of the final legislation.

Water John

This means the WAB is open to amendments by the HOC.

jogdish

Leroy42 wrote: »

WAB is the actual legislation which would have been enacted had the vote been successful. From what I can understand, TM is moving straight to the WAB to get around the Speakers contention that the same vote cannot be re-run.

So they are not having another meaningful vote, rather they will vote on the basis of the final legislation.

Sorry perhaps my questions are just naive, but does that mean that MV was a chance to get everything done in one go all wrapper up, while WAB is legislation that can be amended?


I don't totally get the difference.

Leroy42

AFAIK, the MV vote, if passed, would have moved on to the WAB. Thus, bringing the WAB is simply putting in place the legislation to enact it. But as it is legislation, it is detailed and lays out the actual impact.

Amendments will be allowed, and I would guess that TM is not too bothered about fighting them if they A) don't change the substance or increase in the chances of it getting through.

My reading of it is that TM has simply ignored the previous historic votes against her and if now simply putting the legislation to the house despite the HoC voting on a few occasions against the very concept of the legislation.

I caveat all the above with the note that this is my understanding of it all!

Enzokk

jogdish wrote: »

Sorry perhaps my questions are just naive, but does that mean that MV was a chance to get everything done in one go all wrapper up, while WAB is legislation that can be amended?


I don't totally get the difference.

This is the steps of parliament on a bill. You usually don't hear much about it if it passes the first time even though any bill go through the same steps. This time May is just using a trick to see if she has the support after agreeing to leave her post to bring forward the vote again. I don't know how much difference any of this makes to the WA other than the UK still trying to figure out what is happening.

Ian Dunt's take on all of this.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1129024721431998469

Basically he doesn't see another outcome with a new leader as they will once again ask for an extension in October as they have wasted the extension that was granted to them to elect a new PM.

FreudianSlippers

Enzokk wrote: »

This is the steps of parliament on a bill. You usually don't hear much about it if it passes the first time even though any bill go through the same steps. This time May is just using a trick to see if she has the support after agreeing to leave her post to bring forward the vote again. I don't know how much difference any of this makes to the WA other than the UK still trying to figure out what is happening.

Ian Dunt's take on all of this.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1129024721431998469

Basically he doesn't see another outcome with a new leader as they will once again ask for an extension in October as they have wasted the extension that was granted to them to elect a new PM.

They have completely wasted the extension and are going to be furious when the EU only grants them a multi-year extension. IMHO only a general election will solve the problem now... it will have to be straight Brexit vs No Brexit. I don't think, nor do I think I have for quite some time, that a second referendum will do anything - unless it's an absolutely landslide one way or the other (unlikely) then it will cause more problems in the UK than it solves.

Capt'n Midnight

Water John wrote: »

This means the WAB is open to amendments by the HOC.

So May will squeeze a few more weeks out of the wrangling and re-voting.

The EU have rejected out of hand any amendments that change the WA so there's that.

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

There was a recently leaked letter (or perhaps email exchange) involving John Redmond where is decried the payment of the divorce settlement on the basis that it was a huge amount of money and they were getting noting in return. £39 is clearly a huge amount of money, but the fact that a sitting MP still does not appreciate what it actually is points that most people are still in complete denial with what Brexit actually means.

£39Bn includes pensions for UK citizens employed by the EU. So they have to pay some of it regardless.

£39Bn isn't huge money in the grand scheme of things.

It's less than the projected cost overrun on HS2. LOL'd when I saw the Viz Top Tip
"Manchester businessmen , save the country billions by scheduling your meetings 20 minutes later"


UK has lost over twice that much due to Brexit uncertainty thus far.


Besides EU tariffs on UK goods and services would pay off that £39Bn in a few years. So it's not like that money would never go back into the UK economy.

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

£39Bn includes pensions for UK citizens employed by the EU. So they have to pay some of it regardless.

£39Bn isn't huge money in the grand scheme of things.

It's less than the projected cost overrun on HS2. LOL'd when I saw the Viz Top Tip
"Manchester businessmen , save the country billions by scheduling your meetings 20 minutes later"


UK has lost over twice that much due to Brexit uncertainty thus far.


Besides EU tariffs on UK goods and services would pay off that £39Bn in a few years. So it's not like that money would never go back into the UK economy.

The total sum has not been calculated, only the method to calculate it, and the £39 billion is a UK proposed calculation of the amount - not a real figure, more like a Daily Mail or Telegraph figure.

It is to be paid off over very many years, with the pension part determined by an actuarial calculation. It is not all debit - there are some credits as well.

If the UK refuse to pay up, then the EU would turn quite nasty. The EU needs their budget to work, and the UK agreed to contribute to it..

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

The EU needs their budget to work, and the UK agreed to contribute to it..

Compare the nett UK contribution to the multi billion dollar fines levied by the EU on multinationals.

Google have been fined €8.2 billion over the last 3 years


Earlier today Citibank & Co got fined €1Bn


Other EU Fines https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/18/technology/eu-biggest-fines-tech/index.html


The UK doesn't have the EU over a barrel on this one. And it was their trump card.

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the UK refuse to pay up, then the EU would turn quite nasty. The EU needs their budget to work, and the UK agreed to contribute to it..

Compare the nett UK contribution to the multi billion dollar fines levied by the EU on multinationals.

Google have been fined €8.2 billion over the last 3 years


Earlier today Citibank & Co got fined €1Bn


Other EU Fines https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/18/technology/eu-biggest-fines-tech/index.html


The UK doesn't have the EU over a barrel on this one. And it was their trump card.

I think that is the EU getting nasty. The UK needs to play nicey nicey if they want to do business with the EU, and not paying their dues is not it.

Thargor

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

£39Bn includes pensions for UK citizens employed by the EU. So they have to pay some of it regardless.

£39Bn isn't huge money in the grand scheme of things.

It's less than the projected cost overrun on HS2. LOL'd when I saw the Viz Top Tip
"Manchester businessmen , save the country billions by scheduling your meetings 20 minutes later"


UK has lost over twice that much due to Brexit uncertainty thus far.


Besides EU tariffs on UK goods and services would pay off that £39Bn in a few years. So it's not like that money would never go back into the UK economy.

Id say the actual figure if it could be calculated would be an order of magnitude higher than that, investment has ground to a halt, thats measured in hundreds of billions to a G7 economy.

gooch2k9

Cross party talks end without agreement. More time wasted. Honestly think it would be better for all that they're cut adrift in October. Not the ideal scenario but this can't drag on indefinitely.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48304867

ancapailldorcha

Channel 4 news have been busy. They've exposed various donations from billionaire hedge-fund manager Arron Banks to Nigel Farage after 2016's Brexit referendum. They've uncovered:

-Mr Banks, through one of his companies, rented exclusive £4.4m Chelsea home for Mr Farage
-Gifts included furniture, council tax, water and electricity bills
-Banks provided a £30k car and £20k for a driver
-Banks also leased private office for £1,500 a month and paid Mr Farage’s personal assistant
-Hundreds of thousands of pounds were spent promoting “Brand Farage” in America

A company owned by Mr Banks, called Rock Services Ltd, leased a £4.4m three-bedroom Chelsea home with a garage for Mr Farage at an estimated rent of £13,000 a month in summer 2016.

Mr Banks also bought furniture and fittings for the house, including crockery, chairs and bathroom accessories and even even a shower curtain.

Mr Farage was also provided with a Land Rover Discovery, valued at £32,300, for his use.

Mr Banks paid £20,000 for a close protection driver and sought to raise a further £130,000 from unnamed supporters to cover Mr Farage’s security detail.

It looks like Banks and Farage were trying to create a lobbying organisation to sell themselves to private interests as potential nodes within UK and US government:

Channel 4 News can exclusively reveal that, the day before Mr Farage was photographed with President Trump in Trump Tower, American strategist Gerry Gunster, of Goddard Gunster, proposed capitalising on Farage’s celebrity to establish a new international political consultancy.

Goddard Gunster International would be an “international political powerhouse” which was “uniquely positioned with key executive staff that are closely aligned with the new US administration”.

The organisation would cover “strategy, lobbying, creative services and paid advocacy,” with “counsel provided by Mr Nigel Farage”.

The proposal suggested a 50/50 “division of profits” between Gerry Gunster and Arron Banks, with a “separate agreement with Nigel Farage”.

Channel 4 have a video summary here:

All in all it makes for pretty predictable but demoralising reading. At the end of that video, Farage even has the temerity to quip that "the Russians" have paid for his bodyguards.

Enzokk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Channel 4 news have been busy. They've exposed various donations from billionaire hedge-fund manager Arron Banks to Nigel Farage after 2016's Brexit referendum. They've uncovered:



It looks like Banks and Farage were trying to create a lobbying organisation to sell themselves to private interests as potential nodes within UK and US government:



All in all it makes for pretty predictable but demoralising reading. At the end of that video, Farage even has the temerity to quip that "the Russians" have paid for his bodyguards.

I get the feeling that Farage is trying to be smart with his comment about "the Russians" paying for his bodyguards. I would not be surprised if this turns out to be true and he is using that sarcastically so people would just assume he would not be that stupid to actually tell them, when he has.

I guess that Banks made a lot of money with Brexit and he is repaying Farage. His concession on the night, twice, is very suspicious as is the way he maintains he very nice lifestyle. What's the saying, if it looks like a duck, sounds like a dick, walks like a duck? I get the feeling we are being told it definitely is not a duck.

Enzokk

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Cross party talks end without agreement. More time wasted. Honestly think it would be better for all that they're cut adrift in October. Not the ideal scenario but this can't drag on indefinitely.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48304867

No surprise there, May could not guarantee that a deal would be adhered to as the political declaration is the only part that is up for re-negotiation and it is also not legally binding. She can also not bind her successor to any deals she has made.

Looking at the link, there are 53 days left that parliament is sitting between now and Brexit in October. That is with the planned recess dates, and that is not a lot of time at all. There has not been any movement and with the EU elections and a change of EU Commission, EU President and EU Parliament there is no guarantee of anything the UK may get. May and Corbyn has been feckless and I don't see how we have any path out of this unless they leave without a deal. The UK needs a shock to the system to wake them up.

I think they are sleepwalking right now with an air of superiority that they will be okay because they are the UK. A change of leader or new election will not change this, they need something to wake them up to the reality of the world and their place in it. We will hurt as well, but rather a short quick shock than sitting with a country that will cause more damage in the long term in small doses.

That is my pessimistic view of the state of play right now.

Russman

Enzokk wrote: »

The UK needs a shock to the system to wake them up.

I think they are sleepwalking right now with an air of superiority that they will be okay because they are the UK. A change of leader or new election will not change this, they need something to wake them up to the reality of the world and their place in it.

Unfortunately, I think you've hit the nail on the head right there. How half a population can still be in favour of Brexit after all the debate over the last year is mind boggling and surely can largely be put down to stubbornness. Like they used to say in the movies "we can do this the easy way or the hard way" and I think the UK is going to go about getting a dose of humility the hard way.

Enzokk

And a new poll this morning makes for interesting reading for Labour.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1129284560502644736

So they have now been overtaken by the LibDems. That is the party that was decimated by the previous elections and Labour is trailing them. The election next week is going to be interesting and the results even more so. If Labour and the Conservatives only win 24% of the vote it should act as a wake-up call.

I suspect the Tories will pitch even further right and try to out-Brexit the Brexit party, logic says that Labour should pitch the opposite way. But with Corbyn, who knows what they will eventually do.

LeinsterDub

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Cross party talks end without agreement. More time wasted. Honestly think it would be better for all that they're cut adrift in October. Not the ideal scenario but this can't drag on indefinitely.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48304867

Next on the time wasting agenda

1. Trump
2. MV 4
3. Tory leadership election