Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

Shelga wrote: »

How do 35-40% of the electorate of the UK not care even a tiny bit about nuance or detail, or have any understanding that leaving the EU is incredibly complicated and will be devastating for the economy. It’s terrifying.

A large part of the problem lies directly at the feet of TM.

After the ref, I think most people would have accepted a soft brexit. Close to what the WA actually sets out. With the margin being so tight I think the call for a middle ground would have been accepted.

Of course both extremes would have cried about it, but overall it would have gone through. The overwhleming vote in the HoC to trigger A50 showed that there was a clear acceptance of the need to leave.

But TM set out very early to be as divisive as possible. She struck a very hard line position and promised, numerous times, that the impossible was possible, that No Deal was better than a bad deal, that the UK could play hardball (recall how they attempted to use the EU citizens as bargaining chips).

This led to a belief among many, not unsurprisingly, that Brexit was going to be a great and bountiful experience. So those looking for Brexit now wanted the 'best' Brexit, and those that had voted Remain now saw that the Brexit being sought was the very worst they had imagined and far from the soft Brexit thye would have accepted.

Thus, the divide which always exists after a ref was exacerbated and weaponised by TM.

So it is really no surprising that when the BRexit Party comes out and says that if only they had been involved then the Brexit TM had promised would have been delivered. The narrative that it is simply the process, not Brexit itself, that is the issue has been allowed to grow and accepted.

An Ciarraioch

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This might explain why Tory MPs might support the WA, but there are not enough Tories to pass it.


From the polling numbers upthread, the Brexit party is a much bigger threat to the Tories - Labour seem to be losing number to the LibDems and Greens because they are not fighting Brexit - so double crossing their members and supporters by passing May's deal would likely see mass defections to the Lib Dems before the next Westminster election.

One parallel that struck me was with the Irish Convention here - what might have been an acceptable compromise previously was rendered anachronistic by shifting political trends, and proved to be an impossible sell to grassroots voters.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Convention

20silkcut

Shelga wrote: »

How do 35-40% of the electorate of the UK not care even a tiny bit about nuance or detail, or have any understanding that leaving the EU is incredibly complicated and will be devastating for the economy. It’s terrifying.

I wonder if there was a party called the ‘Anti no deal party’ how would they do in the polls?
Surely there is a majority in Britain that wants some kind of a deal.

Russman

20silkcut wrote: »

Surely there is a majority in Britain that wants some kind of a deal.

There probably is, but I honestly think so many of them just haven't grasped the seriousness of it all and are at the point of "ohh just get on with it, whatever".

An Ciarraioch

There have now been seven UK European polls since the local elections, so averaging them out gives you:

UKIP: 3%
Lab: 23% (precisely)
Con: 13%
Lib Dem: 14%
Green: 8%
SNP+Plaid: 4%
Brexit: 29%
Change UK: 5%

Zubeneschamali

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

There have now been seven UK European polls since the local elections, so averaging them out gives you:

UKIP: 3%
Lab: 23% (precisely)
Con: 13%
Lib Dem: 14%
Green: 8%
SNP+Plaid: 4%
Brexit: 29%
Change UK: 5%

So that's


Brexit: 45 (Brexit Party + Tories + UKIP)
Remain: 31 (LD + Green + CHUK + SNP)
WTF: 23 (Labour)

20silkcut

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So that's


Brexit: 45 (Brexit Party + Tories + UKIP)
Remain: 31 (LD + Green + CHUK + SNP)
WTF: 23 (Labour)

Are the tories entirely a brexit party?
Surely there are a percentage of tory voters that are soft brexit/ remain.

Likewise Labour have a large percentage of remainers.

serfboard

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

There have now been seven UK European polls since the local elections, so averaging them out gives you:

UKIP: 3%
Lab: 23% (precisely)
Con: 13%
Lib Dem: 14%
Green: 8%
SNP+Plaid: 4%
Brexit: 29%
Change UK: 5%

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So that's

Brexit: 45 (Brexit Party + Tories + UKIP)
Remain: 31 (LD + Green + CHUK + SNP)
WTF: 23 (Labour)

20silkcut wrote: »

Are the tories entirely a brexit party?
Surely there are a percentage of tory voters that are soft brexit/ remain.

Likewise Labour have a large percentage of remainers.

Exactly. Which is why I'd re-write the summation as:

(No-Deal) Brexit: 32 (Brexit Party + UKIP)
Remain: 31 (Lib Dems + Greens + CHUK + SNP + Plaid)
WTF: 36 (Cons + Labour)

murphaph wrote: »

If they elect a load of Faragists then to hell with them. The remainers better come out in numbers or I will also view them as a lost cause. This election must be viewed as a defacto second referendum.

Indeed. If you're a Remainer voting Tory or Labour in the European Elections, you're wasting your vote.

WomanSkirtFan8

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

There is nothing whatever behind the Brexit party except Brexit - they have no policies, not even a manifesto.

Indeed and from what I heard earlier today, they're apparently not willing to publish a party manifestio either :cool:

An Ciarraioch

Fair play to Google - their front page currently has a YouTube link for tonight's Spitzenkandidaten debate:

https://www.google.ie/?gws_rd=ssl

cml387

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Indeed and from what I heard earlier today, they're apparently not willing to publish a party manifestio either :cool:

Well given that they are advocating a no deal exit,there's little need for any further manifesto for electing candidates to a body they are going to leave.

FrancieBrady

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Indeed and from what I heard earlier today, they're apparently not willing to publish a party manifestio either :cool:

Because it would probably tear them apart more profoundly than the Tories or Lab.

serfboard

Interesting article here about how not being clear about Brexit is damaging Labour in the European elections.

voters were confused about Labour’s position. “How can you be fighting a Tory Brexit when you are in talks with the Tories to deliver one?” is a frequent argument on the doorstep, and is driving Labour voters to the Libdems and Greens.

“It’s killing us not being able to give a one word answer,” the candidate told me. “Corbyn was always about straight, honest politics – now candidates have to take a breath and launch into a long sentence. The lack of clarity is hurting us.”

demfad

https://bylinetimes.com/2019/05/14/brexit-party-donations-an-open-invitation-to-launder-money/
https://bylinetimes.com/2019/05/15/brexit-party-donations-farages-miracle-claims-do-not-add-up/

Anyone seen these folks?
The Brexit Party funding coming under scrutiny.

Capt'n Midnight

20silkcut wrote: »

Are the tories entirely a brexit party?
Surely there are a percentage of tory voters that are soft brexit/ remain.

Likewise Labour have a large percentage of remainers.

It's a list system so the party chooses which candidate gets the vote. Carte blanche.

serfboard wrote: »

Indeed. If you're a Remainer voting Tory or Labour in the European Elections, you're wasting your vote.

Essentially. Both parties will claim support for their position on Brexit, which in Labour's case has been described as "sneaky brexit"

I see the 'No to Scottish independence' sides lead has been cut to 2 points in the latest poll on the subject. Interesting.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/27/scottish-independence-yes-vote-climbs-49

An Ciarraioch

Timmermans coming across as forceful, yet progressive, and the clear winner of the European debate - still not convinced I'd want to vote for Nunan, though.

Capt'n Midnight

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Indeed and from what I heard earlier today, they're apparently not willing to publish a party manifestio either :cool:

Yup, can't be accused of breaking promises

Been standing for election since 1994 so should have some policies by now.



Instead you can just imagine Nigel's face on these honest election posters.
https://i.imgur.com/aWlqVBl.jpg

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

I see the 'No to Scottish independence' sides lead has been cut to 2 points in the latest poll on the subject. Interesting.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/27/scottish-independence-yes-vote-climbs-49

SNP getting a higher poll than Tory + Labour + Brexit + UKIP combined.

And the other parties are Remain.



IF May hadn't called the election there'd only be a single Tory MP there and giving Scotland independence would have meant a greater majority for Brexit in the rest of the UK - just counting the existing votes, because a new referendum would be undemocratic.

jochenstacker

serfboard wrote: »

Interesting article here about how not being clear about Brexit is damaging Labour in the European elections.

It has to be self sabotage. Corbyn has the ball and he's standing in front of a wide open goal, he's been trying to score for some time now but keeps missing and falling over the ball.
The man knows the opportunity that lies directly in front of him, just provide an opposition, and yet he refuses to take the chance.
He simply cannot be that stupid, so it is deliberate.

Kermit.de.frog

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Timmermans coming across as forceful, yet progressive, and the clear winner of the European debate - still not convinced I'd want to vote for Nunan, though.

All of them want to dictate to us what our taxation policies should be.


Anyone who does not believe that this interference in individual country's affairs is going to accelerate with Britain's exit is deluded.

Capt'n Midnight

Trump has stepped up the trade war with China

The president signed an executive order which effectively bars US companies from using foreign telecoms believed to pose a security risk to the country.

What are the chances they'll ditch Israeli kit ?


This is not a good time for the UK to go it alone in the big bad world.

UK Steel industry is toast. EU looking like vetoing Tata merger. British steel needing loads of cash and not being able to use EU carbon credit pool. And US tariffs on Chinese steel means it'll have to be dumped somewhere. And without the UK veto it won't be going to the EU.


From 2016 cba looking for link that says the UK risked the entire EU steel industry so they could keep importing cheap* Chinese shoes that would "save" UK families a fiver a year
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3518278/UK-blocked-EU-bid-raise-China-steel-tariff-protected-industry-cheap-imports.html

Britain 'blocked' EU bid to raise China steel tariff that could have protected the industry from cheap imports

See both HHGTG Shoe Event Horizon and the Captain Samuel Vimes 'Boots' theory of socioeconomic unfairness for how debunking the "cheap" shoe fallacy is.

Peregrinus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

There is nothing whatever behind the Brexit party except Brexit - they have no policies, not even a manifesto. Their financial backers are a secret.

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Indeed and from what I heard earlier today, they're apparently not willing to publish a party manifestio either :cool:

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Because it would probably tear them apart more profoundly than the Tories or Lab.

I don't know that you can tear apart a one-man band.

The Brexit "Party" is not a party - it has no members. It only has "supporters", who contribute money and/or volunteer their efforts, but have no role in organising or running the party. Farage has confirmed that it's run as a business enterprise, not as a political party. Basically, it exists to advocate for a no-deal Brexit in the interests of its wealty but anonymous backers, and Farage is its marketing device.

Stop moaning ffs

There’s attemtping to reframe the issue and shift the blame. Then there’s this.
Just about every word in this **** piece is wrong. ‘Ancient conflict’??? Fvck all the way off.
This is imperial English exceptionalism at its very worst.
Somehow Ireland’s to blame for destabilising the British state. Ehhh no, Brexit is your own disaster

https://twitter.com/colmogorman/status/1128771182084395008

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

I don't know that you can tear apart a one-man band.

The Brexit "Party" is not a party - it has no members. It only has "supporters", who contribute money and/or volunteer their efforts, but have no role in organising or running the party. Farage has confirmed that it's run as a business enterprise, not as a political party. Basically, it exists to advocate for a no-deal Brexit in the interests of its wealty but anonymous backers, and Farage is its marketing device.

Exactly. 'Who's going for the milk?' would cause a schism worse than the one Luther caused.

ToBeFrank123

Seeing the rise in popularity of Farage's new party, one of the leading advocates of a No Deal crashout, my sympathy for the British people is all but exhausted and also my respect for their levels of intelligence.

Have they learned nothing from the last few months and the discussions around how a No Deal crash out would be a disaster?

The British masses are easily led astray by the simple minded rhetoric of Farage.

Leroy42

I think they are looking for an easy way out, and Farage is giving it to them (lies of course but that is what he is selling). It is akin to the "burn the bondholders" or "just leave the EU" calls during the crisis in Ireland. It contains some semblance of merit, but it falls well short of the cure all that it is sold as and those pushing it never answer how the resulted issues will be dealt with.

To reject Farage would be to reject the whole idea that Brexit can be a success, and to acknowledge that would be to accept that not only was the individual voter wrong, but the entire country was wrong. That would necessitate a deep review of politics, media, education even the democracy.

It would also require that they reevaluate UK's position in the world and the changing nature of the world.

That is quite a heavy thin g for people to take on. Far easier to simply blame TM, or Remoaners, or the Irish of the EU. Of course inherent in each of those is the acceptance that they (UK) are not as powerful and important as they seem to believe but that again would require some critical thinking.

There was a recently leaked letter (or perhaps email exchange) involving John Redmond where is decried the payment of the divorce settlement on the basis that it was a huge amount of money and they were getting noting in return. £39 is clearly a huge amount of money, but the fact that a sitting MP still does not appreciate what it actually is points that most people are still in complete denial with what Brexit actually means.

Infini

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Seeing the rise in popularity of Farage's new party, one of the leading advocates of a No Deal crashout, my sympathy for the British people is all but exhausted and also my respect for their levels of intelligence.

Have they learned nothing from the last few months and the discussions around how a No Deal crash out would be a disaster?

The British masses are easily led astray by the simple minded rhetoric of Farage.

It should be said though that the Brexiteers only comprise of a 1/3rd of the electorate (the Brexit party itself about 1/4).

It should also be said that the majority of all this is because of the conservatives and Mays government being totally out of touch, incompetent and grossly arrogant and refusing to take obvious paths out of this including a new referendum and only Labours lacklustre leadership from Corbyn has allowed the situation to go on as long as it has.

Undoing decades of misinformation cant just be done in a few years of course but its obvious the British system is in bad need of reformnand Brexit has just shown how unfit the whole thing is.

Nody

jochenstacker wrote: »

It has to be self sabotage. Corbyn has the ball and he's standing in front of a wide open goal, he's been trying to score for some time now but keeps missing and falling over the ball.
The man knows the opportunity that lies directly in front of him, just provide an opposition, and yet he refuses to take the chance.
He simply cannot be that stupid, so it is deliberate.

Not really; he wants to leave EU so he can not only nationalize a lot of services but also give out contracts only to "approved" government companies / semi private companies rather than putting them on proper tender. He's wabbling about it all is simply because he knows saying outright he wants out would lose him votes.

Hurrache

So Thomas Cook have lost €1.5 Billion in 6 months, will be selling off 105 planes, said that they'll be closing more of their 566 stores, and 150 staff laid off from their head office.

And they definitively said it's due to Brexit uncertainty.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48292318

They wrote €1.1 billion of that off the value of their merger with My Travel.

edited to correct the number of stores closing due to misreading.