Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali

CelticRambler wrote: »

[Brexit party MEPs]re-allocating those seats to the wait-listed candidates will almost certainly reduce the influence of the trouble-makers in favour of the traditional blocs.

This is a good point, and a sound reason for the EU to want the UK to just go already.


But, on the other hand, billions of euros in lost trade...

ILoveYourVibes

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU should act in its own best interests - the best thing for the EU is that the UK remains, next best that they take the WA, and worst is No Deal Brexit. So the EU should obviously offer an extension whenever the alternative is No Deal, since No Deal now is the worst possible outcome.

If, if Boris or Raab is the next PM (Sweet Divine Jesus between us and all harm) they might try and pull a No Deal Brexit, and some cockup might prevent Westminster from yanking the wheel from their hands and steering away from the cliff, and a No Deal Brexit might happen in October.

But even if it does, that is less harmful for the EU than a Hard Brexit last April or March would have been. And if they get an extension to 2020 and then go No Deal, that will be less harmful to us again.

And who knows? Maybe the horse will learn to sing.

No they shouldn't. No Deal is the worst short term outcome.

The EU is thinking long term.

Leroy42

Yes, but is the desire to avoid the pain in the short term actually having a negative impact overall?

The EU have basically conceded that they will try to avoid a No Deal. That gives the No Deal ERG and Farage the thinking that they hold some power in this, and they sell that message to their hopeful electorate.

Sometimes one just has to accept the reality of the situation. In this instance it appears that there really is no real option but a no deal. Even if TM gets a deal past, even the Labour party don't believe that the Tories will adhere to it so why should the EU have any faith?

The EU were clear that the UK should have come back prior to April with a plan, something they completely failed to do, and they had failed to meet plenty of other targets during the negotiations. And yet, despite that, the EU basically gave them a no conditions based extension, so much so that Tusk was left to plead with the UK not to waste this time rather than actually giving them something to deliver.

So whilst I can see the reasoning behind the extension, to give it, and certainly to give any further extensions, without a clear, detailed, and fully thoughout plan would be yet another signal of the weakness of the EU to deal with the realities of the issues they face.

They failed in terms of the refugee crisis, struggled badly with regards to Greece, and they may end up being seen as weak if they continue avoid making the hard decisions.

ILoveYourVibes

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes, but is the desire to avoid the pain in the short term actually having a negative impact overall?

On the part of the EU yes. I think they should after OCT of 2019 offer no further extensions and insist the UK leaves or stays.

Or revokes article 50 and commits to a long term plan.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes, but is the desire to avoid the pain in the short term actually having a negative impact overall?

No, not at all.

The EU can kick the can down the road for 25 years if it comes to that, see Norway, Sweden and Switzerland's accession processes for examples.

Brexit, especially No Deal, will cost EU members billions every year starting whenever it happens, if ever.

Delaying Brexit costs the EU roughly nothing by comparison.

An Ciarraioch

Swings and roundabouts in tonight's polls - Brexit ahead of Tories for a GE, but Lib Dems on 15% in the Europeans.

Seth Brundle

Police order McDonald’s to stop selling milkshakes near Farage rally

With hundreds of Brexit Party supporters and dozens of protesters arriving at Edinburgh’s Corn Exchange for an EU elections rally, staff at the neighbouring McDonald’s were told to not serve people certain products following a spate of dairy-based incidents involving right-wing politicians.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/britain/police-order-mcdonalds-to-stop-selling-milkshakes-near-farage-rally-38124760.html

reslfj

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Brexit, especially No Deal, will cost EU members billions every year....

Except possible for Ireland the cost to EU27 is really not much. It will affect the growth for the EU27 countries with less than 1%, before secondary effects (e.g new export is included). This is around the growth in 6 months and not a huge nor long term problem. Ireland is small and helpin does not present any serious financial problem the the EU27 or the Eurozone.

The EU27 continues to have a huge and effective Single Market of 445 million.
The full set of excellent EU FTAs continues to be available, with more coming on-line - Japan, Singapore and negotiated AU, NZ, Mercosur.


The real question is: Will the UK ratify the WA? Revoke A50? or Jump the 'No Deal' cliff? - and be forced to return to the EU27 in Brussels and beg for a deal, any deal - literally within a few weeks.


Lars

Zubeneschamali

reslfj wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Brexit, especially No Deal, will cost EU members billions every year....

Except possible for Ireland the cost to EU27 is really not much.

We are not really disagreeing. Tens of billions is not so much compared to the GDP of the whole EU minus the UK.

But it is still tens of billions, and if we prevent Brexit, good.

Capt'n Midnight

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Police order McDonald’s to stop selling milkshakes near Farage rally

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/britain/police-order-mcdonalds-to-stop-selling-milkshakes-near-farage-rally-38124760.html

WUT ? :eek:


As they pointed out on The Last Leg yesterday this is the longest parliamentary session since the Civil War, or as future historians will call it Civil War One.

CelticRambler

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This is a good point, and a sound reason for the EU to want the UK to just go already.


But, on the other hand, billions of euros in lost trade...

Well, what billions? Because the UK is still going to need everything that they currently buy from the EU until such time as they figure out how to get fresh lettuce from Argentina and fresh fish from Tasmania.

I'm still waiting for someone to point out the exception, but there's nothing that the EU sources from the UK that can't be sourced from another EU country, and I'm pretty sure we'll see a similar level of competition between EU-based companies to fill the GB-shaped hole in the internal market as we've seen in the race to take the UK's financial services and EU agencies.

A post-Brexit Britain cannot survive as a developed nation without trading with the EU, and that trade means doing a deal, and that deal means not so many billions of euros' worth of lost trade on our side.

First Up

CelticRambler wrote:

I'm pretty sure we'll see a similar level of competition between EU-based companies to fill the GB-shaped hole in the internal market as we've seen in the race to take the UK's financial services and EU agencies.

That's already well underway; many EU companies have already found alternative sources.

Ireland is the most exposed because of the long standing supply chains in both directions and there will be some disruption if they crash out. But it will be sorted.

Zubeneschamali

Of course trade will not stop, but with our nearest neighbour with 65 million people behind extra barriers to trade, be they tariffs or regulations, the total amount of trade will be lower and we will all be poorer than if the UK remains.

And the numbers are big - 3, 5, 10 % of the Uks economy could evaporate compared to expected growth. Not just shift to Argentina, vanish, poof.

CelticRambler

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Of course trade will not stop, but with our nearest neighbour with 65 million people behind extra barriers to trade, be they tariffs or regulations, the total amount of trade will be lower and we will all be poorer than if the UK remains.

I don't think it's a simple as that. Look at the US - increasingly trading from behind barriers of all kinds, but they need what the outside world (especially China) provides to maintain their standard of living.

Historically, Ireland has always fed the British, so our farmers will continue to feed them. In the short term, there just aren't enough supply chains set up with the rest of the world to meet their needs, so the sooner they go full Brexit, the better it is for Irish suppliers.

There is money to be made on the back of a hard Brexit (see Farage & Co.) and there's no reason why nimble Irish producers and manufacturers can't exploit our unique geographical, political and cultural position in the short and medium term while an unprepared British economy sits around scratching its ar5e and asking WTF?

Shelga

Jeremy Corbyn was as clear as mud on Andrew Marr. No way in hell I’d be voting for Labour.

Rory Stewart just wants to be PM, and pretend that 16 million Remain voters don’t exist.

Chuka Ummuna not being honest about what a complete failure of marketing his CHUKTIG/Independent Group/Change UK/Insert Name Here party has been so far. And saying conflicting things about how people want a change in politics that is about more than Brexit, and in the next breath saying Brexit is by far the main issue of the day.

Sigh. The circus rumbles on.

Capt'n Midnight

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Of course trade will not stop, but with our nearest neighbour with 65 million people behind extra barriers to trade, be they tariffs or regulations, the total amount of trade will be lower and we will all be poorer than if the UK remains.

And the numbers are big - 3, 5, 10 % of the Uks economy could evaporate compared to expected growth. Not just shift to Argentina, vanish, poof.

That 3% prediction is unlikely.
They've already lost 2-2.5% and capital investment has stalled.

The one off boost from the devaluation of Sterling is long gone..
The one off boost from stockpiling for Hard Brexit is gone

The boost in employment from putting off capital investment is unsustainable. Those jobs are on life support. If demand goes down they are gone, if demand goes up they are gone as businesses reinvest in production lines and technology. Like the end of a big war there'll be a demobilisation. Maybe if they stay in the EU it'll be like the USA at the end of WWII where they'll catchup on the missed domestic demand. But I doubt it. Probably more like the UK at the end of WWII.

Capt'n Midnight

Shelga wrote: »

Sigh. The circus rumbles on.

Theresa May has said a "new and improved" Brexit deal will be put to MPs when they vote on the EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill in early June.

Why try to polish something when you sprinkle it with glitter ?

Thrashssacre

Watched some of Sargon of akkads videos on YouTube of him out campaigning chatting to some constituents and I have to say the guy doesn’t come across half as bad as I thought he would after I seen the stuff on sky news about him.

Ben Done

Thrashssacre wrote: »

Watched some of Sargon of akkads videos on YouTube of him out campaigning chatting to some constituents and I have to say the guy doesn’t come across half as bad as I thought he would after I seen the stuff on sky news about him.

This guy?

Benjamin, who calls himself Sargon of Akkad after the ruler of a Mesopotamian empire, first became known for his anti-feminist commentary, and has also expressed controversial opinions on immigration, race and other issues.
In 2016 he tweeted “I wouldn’t even rape you” to the Labour MP Jess Phillips, in a message featuring the tag #feminismiscancer. Phillips said she subsequently received 600 rape threats].
Benjamin, who is among a trio of social media-based activists who joined Ukip last year, has previously used racially charged language, accusing alt-right critics during one live web interview of “acting like a bunch of ****”. He added: “You think white people act like this? White people are meant to be polite and respectful to one another.”
In another discussion he argued that institutional racism was “actually good for the black community” in reducing levels of poverty and crime.

I'm sure he's dampened down expressing some of his more odious views to try to get elected, but are you saying he's actually ok, and sky news has misrepresented him, or what was the point of your "I have to say"?

Zubeneschamali

Ben Done wrote: »

I'm sure he's dampened down expressing some of his more odious views to try to get elected, but are you saying he's actually ok

He's running for UKIP, enough said.

RickBlaine

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Theresa May has said a "new and improved" Brexit deal will be put to MPs when they vote on the EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill in early June.

Why try to polish something when you sprinkle it with glitter ?

A truly "bold offer" would include a confirmatory referendum. Anything less is just platitudes.

Jamiekelly

He's a Youtuber who likes to be edgy for views. He's the exact same thing as Sky News when it comes to clickbait headlines. I wouldn't put Sky News up on a pedestal there either.

Beechwoodspark

Watched marr this morning. What a mess the Uk is in

Umuna is a good media performer but The change Uk party seems to have no traction.

lib dems will make gains yes but to me seem of little relevance.

Labour are in such a muddle.

Corbyns verbal gymnastics explaining their current very complicated position was like a Monty python sketch except not at all funny.

Thrashssacre

Ben Done wrote: »

This guy?





I'm sure he's dampened down expressing some of his more odious views to try to get elected, but are you saying he's actually ok, and sky news has misrepresented him, or what was the point of your "I have to say"?

He doesn’t particularly tone much down, context is required for a lot of those quotes I’d imagine, I don’t think he just blurted those out of nowhere as he tends to have a lot of longer discussions so I’d imagine there plucked out of one of those.

I’d recommend watching some of his videos campaigning gives a nice barometer of some of the people who voted leave and their rational for it, he tends to speak with a lot of people who disagree with him too so it’s not all pats on the back.

S.M.B.

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Watched marr this morning. What a mess the Uk is in

Umuna is a good media performer but The change Uk party seems to have no traction.

lib dems will make gains yes but to me seem of little relevance.

Labour are in such a muddle.

Corbyns verbal gymnastics explaining their current very complicated position was like a Monty python sketch except not at all funny.

Agreed, to be honest everyone who appeared recently has looked equally as bad. Massive u-turns by all.

I thought Corbyn came across best and that's coming from someone who is looking at jumping to lib dems this Thursday.

RickBlaine

Is there any path to a second ref now? If/when May goes, she most likely be replaced by someone who is even more against the concept of a second ref than she is.

Zubeneschamali

RickBlaine wrote: »

Is there any path to a second ref now? If/when May goes, she most likely be replaced by someone who is even more against the concept of a second ref than she is.

Absolutely anything is still possible. If May brings her deal back for a vote, Parliament could amend it to include a 2nd referendum.

It hardly matters what the next PM wants since no-one is paying any heed to leaders or whips anymore.

Tikki Wang Wang

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Watched marr this morning. What a mess the Uk is in

Umuna is a good media performer but The change Uk party seems to have no traction.

lib dems will make gains yes but to me seem of little relevance.

Labour are in such a muddle.

Corbyns verbal gymnastics explaining their current very complicated position was like a Monty python sketch except not at all funny.

Umuna should have went Lib Dem. They are crying out for a next generation leader

McGiver

Tikki Wang Wang wrote:

Umuna should have went Lib Dem. They are crying out for a next generation leader

The whole change UK platform could have been made a slogan and campaign under LibDems. Standing as a separate party is a mistake. Won't achieve anything, especially in the fptp.

Enzokk

As we are waiting for the EU Elections and what the results will be and what it will mean, here is another poll that makes for interesting reading.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1130119899773382657

So in this poll it seems what people have warned Labour about is reflected in the voting intentions. The Brexit Party has gained the 18% the Conservatives has lost, and the Libdems and Greens have gained 17% and Labour has lost 18%. But you keep chasing those leavers Corbyn, they will lead you to the promised land.

Then again this result would probably mean Labour still wins about 250 seats and and will still be able to form a coalition government with the SNP and if needed the Libdems.