Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

I suspect the Tories will pitch even further right and try to out-Brexit the Brexit party, logic says that Labour should pitch the opposite way. But with Corbyn, who knows what they will eventually do.

Well, all the signs are that the next leader will be more Brexity than TM, which given her statements seems a bit of a push. But the Tories, or at least a veyr large amount of them, including the vast majority of their membership, are very much of the mind to go Hard Brexit rather than softer.

And with that will come the 'need' for some tough medicine. Massive cuts in social spending, sell off parts of the NHS, big corporate incentives such a s big drop in CT rate, subsidies etc to try to get businesses back. All of course in the name of a better future.

Enzokk

And as if to knock in the final nail in the Labour coffin, we have this.

Bombshell Brexit leak reveals Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn discussed plan to leave EU on July 31 and avoid second referendum

A bombshell leaked document today reveals that Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have discussed secret plans to block a second referendum and to stage a series of votes designed to ensure Parliament agrees a Brexit plan.

The leaked memo, shown to the Evening Standard, reveals that MPs would get free votes on crunch options ranging from a full permanent customs union to a weaker customs arrangement.

Controversially, MPs would rank options in order of preference, with the least popular options being knocked out in elimination rounds until a winning plan emerges.

...

There will be fury at Mr Corbyn from Labour supporters of a second referendum or confirmatory ballot, because the leaked paper says there will be a separate free vote earlier on whether to let the public have a final say.

A Whitehall source said the aim was to rule out a referendum before an exit plan is chosen.

So it seems that there was discussion on allowing MPs votes on what Brexit they wanted by preference until one emerges after ignoring the option with the least amount of votes. Makes sense, but they will hold a vote before this to rule out a second referendum.

I still don't know anyone can claim with a straight face that Corbyn is trying to keep to the mandate that he was given at the Labour conference. This is a joke and I hope they receive around 10% of the vote in the EU elections. It is time for the piper to be paid regarding Corbyn and his continual insistence to ignore the very people he said he would empower must mean he has to go.

maynooth_rules

Russman wrote: »

Unfortunately, I think you've hit the nail on the head right there. How half a population can still be in favour of Brexit after all the debate over the last year is mind boggling and surely can largely be put down to stubbornness. Like they used to say in the movies "we can do this the easy way or the hard way" and I think the UK is going to go about getting a dose of humility the hard way.

Stubbornness and stupidity are a very dangerous combination and unfortunately a decent percentage of Brexit voters suffer from both. Simply put, nothing will change their mind and a horrific no deal would still somehow be blamed on the EU

ancapailldorcha

Well, that's terrifying.

Upon attaining power in 1974, Harold Wilson managed to renegotiate Britain's entry to the EEC and secure some concessions as a result.

The concessions fell far short of what was promised in the Labour manifesto. Sound familiar?

Anyway, the point wasn't the concessions themselves. The point was that it was possible for Britain to win them at all and therefore adopt a leading role in the EEC, not only for itself but also for the USA and the Commonwealth.

However, Wilson knew he couldn't just ask Labour voters to back remain. He knew he'd have to show that EEC membership was more than just a Tory project. This was the true purpose of the negotiations. Cameron, not realizing this used them as a PR tool and failed.

If Corbyn backs Brexit, which is a Tory right project then he will be complicit in the decimation of most of the UK. The referendum on May's deal vs Remain is his only way not just to circumvent the accusations of opposing the will of the people but to keep his party together, as Harold Wilson did. If he continues on this course, he will alienate the moderates in his party and doom it to splitting over Europe.

Leroy42

I think that ship has sailed. There can be no remain voter still thinking that Labour are on their side. Corbyn has done nothing, nothing at all, to suggest that he wants to stop Brexit. Even his "A Common Market" approach is fanciful nonsense. It is no better than TM's "We won't put up a border in NI" mantra.

The fact that he has allowed TM almost free reign to spout such nonsense without calling her out repeatedly over the sheer illogicality of her position is shameful. Even if he does believe in leaving the EU, he should have at least stood up for reality, rather than allow TM to continue to peddle the fantasy. And not only that, he has continued to promise Fantasy MkII.

That the likes of Starmer, whom I have some admiration for, have allowed this to go on for so long means that they are powerless to bring Labour onto the right path. Without knowing the inner workings of the Labour party it is hard to call what is really behind it, but clearly the membership what something very different from Corbyn. Yet they continue to clap and applaud and support him.

ancapailldorcha

Looks like Jeremy has had his fill of talks:

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1129328609708130304

Hopefully this is where they end given his continued aversion to the only solution to his problems, a confirmatory referendum.

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

I think they are sleepwalking right now with an air of superiority that they will be okay because they are the UK.

While I don't disagree with your conclusions, I would argue with the "sleepwalking" and "air of superiority" parts of this sentence.

There may be some (perhaps many) voters who still believe that the UK is a Great Empire Economy and no harm can come to HMS GB floating free in the world's oceans, but I think Westminster as a whole has shown a degree of humility, with an almost-not-quite-maybe-who-knows majority accepting that a UK independent of the EU will be an easy target for predators of all kinds.

In that context, Westminster is wide awake, but alternating between behaviours reminiscent of the proverbial deer caught in headlights, and one of the feckin-eejit starlings that gets into my front room, smashes itself into every available window but won't fly out the open door.

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

While I don't disagree with your conclusions, I would argue with the "sleepwalking" and "air of superiority" parts of this sentence.

There may be some (perhaps many) voters who still believe that the UK is a Great Empire Economy and no harm can come to HMS GB floating free in the world's oceans, but I think Westminster as a whole has shown a degree of humility, with an almost-not-quite-maybe-who-knows majority accepting that a UK independent of the EU will be an easy target for predators of all kinds.

In that context, Westminster is wide awake, but alternating between behaviours reminiscent of the proverbial deer caught in headlights, and one of the feckin-eejit starlings that gets into my front room, smashes itself into every available window but won't fly out the open door.

In my experience, this "air of superiority" tends to be a perilously thin veneer designed to conceal that fact that one with said air of superiority hasn't a clue what they're on about because nobody has ever asked them to articulate an argument that is more than simple soundbytes.

I don't think half of the population favour Brexit. I think it's less. I don't know how good polling can be given how disconnected most people from politics but I think a better Remain campaign would now make huge strides if we get the confirmatory referendum.

Leroy42

If not remain then at the very least after such a complete and utter shambles by the Tory government, Brexit needs to be paused. There is simply no reasonable argument to be made for continuing at the present time.

Whether they need better negotiators, better ideas, cross party agreement, better preparations. You can find any number of people will argue over exactly what went wrong. But what you won't find, even from those that want a hard Brexit, is the thought that Brexit as it currently stands is what was envisaged when it was voted on.

The question of whether it ever could be is one for another time, but at the very least they should be talking about postponing it.

Of course to do what would be to admit that they, as MP's, failed. And thus it is far easier, and better for the MP personally, to simply continue along this disaster rather than stopping.

Akrasia

Leroy42 wrote: »

If not remain then at the very least after such a complete and utter shambles by the Tory government, Brexit needs to be paused. There is simply no reasonable argument to be made for continuing at the present time.

Whether they need better negotiators, better ideas, cross party agreement, better preparations. You can find any number of people will argue over exactly what went wrong. But what you won't find, even from those that want a hard Brexit, is the thought that Brexit as it currently stands is what was envisaged when it was voted on.

The question of whether it ever could be is one for another time, but at the very least they should be talking about postponing it.

Of course to do what would be to admit that they, as MP's, failed. And thus it is far easier, and better for the MP personally, to simply continue along this disaster rather than stopping.

Postponing it, or pausing imo, would be an absolutely awful idea.

This needs to be ended one way or another. Putting it on hold means that the brexiteers will have all that time to stir up negativity and throw sh1t at EU supporters knowing that the more resentment they breed, the more supporters they will have when the postponement ends.

It has to end by either a 2nd referendum cancelling the whole thing and ending the argument for at least a generation, or by the UK leaving the EU. That would begin the argument about whether that was the right decision or not, but a least the brexiteers will have to face the reality of their policy (although the no true scotsman/no true brexit fallacy will never go unused)

Either vote to remain, or leave. Don't delay and waste everyone's time and energy and political capital squabbling until it all boils over and the brexit party becomes a real political force in the UK along with all the shady anti democratic baggage they carry with them

ancapailldorcha

The problem is that there are hostages involved. I understand the emotional appeal of the rather blunt approach of refusing a further extension. However, if one is not granted, millions of EU migrants such as myself and others here will suffer directly. We moved here in good faith. Some of us have started businesses and families here. Then there's the European businesses that depend on frictionless trade with the UK. Are you willing to tell Irish farmers dependent on the UK market of which there are many that it's just tough sh*t?

In any case, the EU will grant an extension for this reason alone. They will insist on some progress or at the very least, some progression in the UK government's attitude. Macron was a major obstacle in April. He's not going to just let another extension pass without scrutiny.

The second referendum is THE solution to this mess. I'm deliberating over a career change now that would take years after I got some great advice from a poster here. Problem is that it's a difficult commitment I don't want to make if the UK's scientists, engineers and IT personnel decide to heed the message they got in 2016. A remain vote in another referendum nullifies the Brexiters' trump card - the apocryphal will of the people with a new mandate. Should it be leave again then people like me really need to get onto booking flights and abandoning this sinking ship of xenophobia, nationalism and vested interests. However, I do think the British people deserve a chance to prove that they are better than this. We now know the shady stories, or at least more of said stories thanks to people like Carole Cadwalladr of the Guardian. Many people here have learnt more about their constitution and how the country works, myself included thanks to Brexit. I'm tired of the weak defense that I somehow think the British are stupid, ignorant and racist simply because I think such a monumental catastrophe (matched by the government's sheer incompetence) demands a carefully considered rethink nearly three years later by the electorate.

The second referendum is the only way forward. The EU should veto any extension that doesn't allow for one in my opinion but as a UK resident, I shouldn't have to rely on the president of France to look after my interests. It's outrageous. It's time for another referendum to hand the public the responsibility for their own future founded on a fact-based debate and decision.

Shelga

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

A remain vote in another referendum nullifies the Brexiters' trump card - the apocryphal will of the people with a new mandate. Should it be leave again then people like me really need to get onto booking flights and abandoning this sinking ship of xenophobia, nationalism and vested interests. However, I do think the British people deserve a chance to prove that they are better than this.

One of the only certainties in this catastrophe is that IF (it's a big if) there was a second vote, there is no way in hell the question would just be 'leave or remain'. The Brexiters can bang on about upholding democracy and will of the people all they like- but we all know that the reason they don't want another referendum is because there is no majority for any specific form of Brexit.

The only way I can ever see Leavers coming on board, even reluctantly, with another vote, is if No Deal is on the ballot paper, much as I still think putting that option down is scaling a whole new level of insanity that I never thought possible.

Put it to the people:

1. Remain
2. Withdrawal Agreement
3. No Deal

Whichever gets the most votes is what happens, even if it's not more than 50%. It would probably be something like 40% No Deal, 10% WA, 45% Remain (I hope). I can't see any other way out of this shambles.

*edit: and yes, ancapailldorcha, if they vote for No Deal, then get the hell out of dodge and never look back.

Tikki Wang Wang

Shelga wrote: »

One of the only certainties in this catastrophe is that IF (it's a big if) there was a second vote, there is no way in hell the question would just be 'leave or remain'. The Brexiters can bang on about upholding democracy and will of the people all they like- but we all know that the reason they don't want another referendum is because there is no majority for any specific form of Brexit.

The only way I can ever see Leavers coming on board, even reluctantly, with another vote, is if No Deal is on the ballot paper, much as I still think putting that option down is scaling a whole new level of insanity that I never thought possible.

Put it to the people:

1. Remain
2. Withdrawal Agreement
3. No Deal

Whichever gets the most votes is what happens, even if it's not more than 50%. It would probably be something like 40% No Deal, 10% WA, 45% Remain (I hope). I can't see any other way out of this shambles.

*edit: and yes, ancapailldorcha, if they vote for No Deal, then get the hell out of dodge and never look back.

That way of doing it wouldn’t be democratic you could have less than half voting to stay in EU yet they win. You need a PR style option where in your example the No Deal 10% is distributed to number 2 option.

ancapailldorcha

Brexiters can harp on and on about no deal and what people voted for in 2016 but that won't change the fact that allowing no deal on the ballot would be a fundamentally irresponsible thing for a government to do. Adding no deal would also split the leave vote which could be considered undemocratic given that there will be a unified remain option on the ballot which won't be split.

Leavers won't come aboard regardless. All it will take is sufficient MP's to see that it is the only way to abdicate responsibility for implementing an absurd decision by the electorate based on lies, xenophobia and unicorns. The referendum legislation can be passed by moderates, liberals and what principled conservatives remain in Parliament and the question sent to the public.

farmchoice

Shelga wrote: »

One of the only certainties in this catastrophe is that IF (it's a big if) there was a second vote, there is no way in hell the question would just be 'leave or remain'. The Brexiters can bang on about upholding democracy and will of the people all they like- but we all know that the reason they don't want another referendum is because there is no majority for any specific form of Brexit.

The only way I can ever see Leavers coming on board, even reluctantly, with another vote, is if No Deal is on the ballot paper, much as I still think putting that option down is scaling a whole new level of insanity that I never thought possible.

Put it to the people:

1. Remain
2. Withdrawal Agreement
3. No Deal

Whichever gets the most votes is what happens, even if it's not more than 50%. It would probably be something like 40% No Deal, 10% WA, 45% Remain (I hope). I can't see any other way out of this shambles.

*edit: and yes, ancapailldorcha, if they vote for No Deal, then get the hell out of dodge and never look back.

except that ''no deal'' is as nebulous as ''leave''. some of the no deal crowd think it means leave with no deal and then negotiate a fta with the EU minus the backstop and divorce bill and of course this will be a great have your cake and eat it deal and the reason the eu will accept it is because they need us more then we need them, basically back on the unicorn.


others think it means out and stay out GoWTO Britannia rules, empire 2.0.


in a 3 way vote this madness could in theory pass with 34% of the vote.


No to no deal is about the only thing the HOC can agree on because it is national suicide

Shelga

farmchoice wrote: »

No to no deal is about the only thing the HOC can agree on because it is national suicide

Not enough people in parliament or the public at large think it is national suicide, and that is the problem.

Could a 3-option vote with an order of preference ever happen?

Leroy42

There really is no option but for MP's to vote through the WA.

They cannot be seen to go against the 'will of the people' and No Deal will be a sh1t show which will only delay them having to accept pretty much close to the WA anyway.

I understand why the likes of the ERG vote against it, it is not hard enough and doesn't give them the fantasy they craved.
But I don't understand why the rest don't vote for it. It might not be what they wanted but it is the best they are going to get.

Surely the WA is the only real option that maintains the democracy they all voted for?

Akrasia

The referendum has to be a choice between either accepting whatever withdrawal agreement is on the table, versus cancelling Article 50 and remaining in the EU

They are the only two options that have a legal basis. As has been said. 'No deal' is not an option

The entire referendum campaign would be the 'no deal' people saying that no deal doesn't really mean no deal, that the day afterwards, the EU would come crawling back begging for a trade deal. It would be ludicrous levels of dishonesty

A referendum needs to be a choice between clear unambiguous options. Anything else is a recipe for disaster.

Akrasia

Leroy42 wrote: »

There really is no option but for MP's to vote through the WA.

They cannot be seen to go against the 'will of the people' and No Deal will be a sh1t show which will only delay them having to accept pretty much close to the WA anyway.

There is the option of a 2nd referendum to verify what actually is the will of the people.

Zubeneschamali

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Not the ideal scenario but this can't drag on indefinitely.

Of course it can drag on indefinitely. The UK can be a member, elect MEPs, contribute to the EU budget and participate in the Single Market while Brexit exists as a squabble in Westminster for the next 25 years.

Even if they hold another referendum and vote Remain, do you think Farage will give up? Of course not, he'll be on the pigs back with a 25% vote for the Brexit Party forever.

Even if they leave, the campaign to rejoin will start immediately, and a lot can happen while they are in the never-ending transition period.

There is simply no way Brexit will ever end in our lifetimes.

An Ciarraioch

Enzokk wrote: »

And a new poll this morning makes for interesting reading for Labour.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1129284560502644736

So they have now been overtaken by the LibDems. That is the party that was decimated by the previous elections and Labour is trailing them. The election next week is going to be interesting and the results even more so. If Labour and the Conservatives only win 24% of the vote it should act as a wake-up call.

I suspect the Tories will pitch even further right and try to out-Brexit the Brexit party, logic says that Labour should pitch the opposite way. But with Corbyn, who knows what they will eventually do.

The follow-up YouGov tweet was equally telling - 43% of Labour voters in the last GE will move to pro-Remain parties for the Euros, with only 14% opting for Farage, which should demonstrate to Corbyn the preferred direction of travel. By contrast, only 10% of 2017 Tories are Remain, while 62% will vote for the Brexit Party.

http://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1129284563031740416

Kermit.de.frog

On the comment "how can the voters make such an absurd choice as Brexit"?

Brexit is not primarily about leaving Europe for English working class voters. That's a distant second, barely an after thought, for most in my opinion.

It's about uncontrolled immigration in to their communities and their fears.

The former Labour government oversaw enormous demographic change in places like Birmingham, Manchester, Sunderland etc...these are the Labour heartlands.

That can't be reversed.

This is why I don't see any chance of Brexit being reversed.

Brexit is the out working of a working class voter base in England, worried and angry, that has been at the coalface of immigration. It actually has little to do with the EU or how it works in my opinion.

You could say the previous Labour government under Blair/Brown laid the tracks for this mess more than the Tories.

Irish Praetorian

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

On the comment "how can the voters make such an absurd choice as Brexit"?

Brexit is not primarily about leaving Europe for English working class voters. That's a distant second, barely an after thought, for most in my opinion.

It's about uncontrolled immigration in to their communities and their fears.

The former Labour government oversaw enormous demographic change in places like Birmingham, Manchester, Sunderland etc...these are the Labour heartlands.

That can't be reversed.

This is why I don't see any chance of Brexit being reversed.

Brexit is the out working of a working class voter base in England, worried and angry, that has been at the coalface of immigration. It actually has little to do with the EU or how it works in my opinion.

You could say the previous Labour government under Blair/Brown laid the tracks for this mess more than the Tories.

I'm inclined very much to agree with this assessment, but for some reason people want to eschew it in favour of what I suspect might be seen as more 'respectable' positions like 'Taking Back Control'. Though I always found it curious that whenever people asked what they wanted to take back control of, the either was almost invariably movement of people.

That said, I'm not sure its irreversible, support from those at the coalface might wane but wider society seems to have seen the lustre worn off Brexit and the polling suggests the hardline No-Deal scenario is capping out at 35-40% support.

Shelga

Listening to Mark Francois on LBC.

Just make this stop. Please. This level of idiocy is truly upsetting.

Leroy42

It is all well and good to say that immigration is at the core of the anti EU feeling, but it needs to be backed up with something. What is the alternative? Do they want all the foreigners currently there to leave, what about those working can they stay? What about the British abroad?

What exactly are the negative impacts of immigration? Financial, socitetal? Should foreign footballers for example be excluded, or is it just working class which should be denied? Why have the politicians failed to deal with the issues up to now? What are they going to do in the future?

This is where is all falls down. They have a vague notion that immigrants are somehow the cause of the problems without actually looking with any detail into it. So it tainting a whole section of people based on nothing more than fear and misunderstanding, that is pretty close to racism.

And we should never accept that racism is acceptable.

Stop moaning ffs

It’s not recently but the first time I was in London I met people who were amazed I was Irish and ‘normal’. They thought all Irish were ‘pikeys’.

I had hoped that level of ignorance would have disappeared but you look now and it’s there and it’s malignant. Fear of the other lead by taboids. It’s disgusting and astounding to see the likes of Farage and Robinson allowed to stir all this up.

Jim2007

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's about uncontrolled immigration in to their communities and their fears.

If it were then why to they ignore the immigration from outside the EU? I have a feeling much of it is fuelled by a massive inferiority complex. Educated white foreigners asserting their rights and taking no nonsense versus the average third world citizen respectfully doing what they are told.

Jim2007

Jim2007 wrote: »

If it were then why to they ignore the immigration from outside the EU? I have a feeling much of it is fuelled by a massive inferiority complex. Educated white foreigners asserting their rights and taking no nonsense versus the average third world citizen respectfully doing what they are told.

It's a duble edged sword, educated migrants taking many jobs from locals who are not being allowed to "skill up" due to the high cost of education, employers rather import cheap foreigners to do these skilled jobs, than to finance apprenticeships.
And at the other end, bringing in cheap unskilled migrants to undercut the wages of the unskilled workers, employers benefitting again at the expence of the local unskilled workers.


It's easy to see why many are angry with the establishment, voting for Brexit was a way of sticking it to the "establishment" as revenge for the loss of prospects due to the mass importation of foreign workers.

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

It's easy to see why many are angry with the establishment, voting for Brexit was a way of sticking it to the "establishment" as revenge for the loss of prospects due to the mass importation of foreign workers.

But surely that falls over as a reason now that Brexit has been shown up for what it really is. We all do certain things in order to get back at our boss, the establishment etc, but once the initial anger has faded and we see the reality of the outcome most sane people will accept that reality.

It seems that people want to claim it was a strike against the establishment and yet a large amount of those that voted for Brexit are still very much in favour of it, in fact many now what a No Deal Brexit. So the antio-establishment argument can't still be making sense.

Leroy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

But surely that falls over as a reason now that Brexit has been shown up for what it really is. We all do certain things in order to get back at our boss, the establishment etc, but once the initial anger has faded and we see the reality of the outcome most sane people will accept that reality.

It seems that people want to claim it was a strike against the establishment and yet a large amount of those that voted for Brexit are still very much in favour of it, in fact many now what a No Deal Brexit. So the antio-establishment argument can't still be making sense.

The anger is still there, if anything it is getting stronger due to the lack of progress with Brexit and the fact that there appears to be no change in the inward movement of people. Businesses are still importing people to do jobs while refusing to invest in the training that the locals require and importing cheap labour for the unskilled jobs.


Nothing has changed to allow people to change their minds, they really don't care about the headache their decision has made for business leaders.