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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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    #212
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,536 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 12z jet stream tracks are interesting, no signs of it returning to normal including the furthest into FI bar a temporary southwesterly later next week. At these stages of the time of year, these abnormal jet stream tracks become more of a nuisance than anything.

    jnDIPfC.png

    AQMYRJd.png

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #213
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    Possible reload on the way?

    ECM0-120.GIF?15-0


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    #214
    Daz_
    Registered Users Posts: 930 ✭✭✭Daz_


    Daz_ wrote: »
    Hi guys . What would the main driver or cause for this to shift north as its doing ? Is it to do with the conditions south or north of it ?

    Friendly bunch


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    #215
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,565 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Daz_ wrote: »
    Friendly bunch


    Sorry, did not see your question:)

    It's very broad. I'll endeavor to answer later but it's not a north or south thing. It's a lot to do with the jet stream having buckled recently.

    The HP just to our north is under pressure to sink from low pressure coming down in to Scandinavia. Low pressure in Europe is preventing it from sinking because the southern arm of the jet stream is strong in to the Med.

    We often get disturbances that manifest themselves in deep cold pools at altitude coming out of the continent that flow east to west under the high pressure. This acts as a prop for the high pressure to remain to the north.

    However, as pressure and instability deepens the area of low pressure propping up the High underneath expands and instead of merely being a prop it shunts the high pressure north - but only temporarily.

    It's like a tug of war.

    I'll come back to this as it deserves a more fulsome answer.


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    #216
    Daz_
    Registered Users Posts: 930 ✭✭✭Daz_


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Sorry, did not see your question:)

    It's very broad. I'll endeavor to answer later but it's not a north or south thing. It's a lot to do with the jet stream having buckled recently.

    The HP just to our north is under pressure to sink from low pressure coming down in to Scandinavia. Low pressure in Europe is preventing it from sinking because the southern arm of the jet stream is strong in to the Med.

    We often get disturbances that manifest themselves in deep cold pools at altitude coming out of the continent that flow east to west under the high pressure. This acts as a prop for the high pressure to remain to the north.

    However, as pressure and instability deepens the area of low pressure propping up the High underneath expands and instead of merely being a prop it shunts the high pressure north - but only temporarily.

    It's like a tug of war.

    I'll come back to this as it deserves a more fulsome answer.

    Thanks Kermit . Having even that bit of background in what causes these changes is very interesting !


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    #217
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,690 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    GFS 12z jet stream tracks are interesting, no signs of it returning to normal including the furthest into FI bar a temporary southwesterly later next week. At these stages of the time of year, these abnormal jet stream tracks become more of a nuisance than anything.

    The only nuisance is the the high sinking :p if only it could retrogress to Greenland and stay there we'd get a nice northerly or northeasterly to see out in March. A Northerly, as you know, at this time of year can deliver.

    I think the Austrian forecaster who said we will see cold spells alternating with milder periods well into April is correct. So more snow is likely, but i think after this weekend we won't see the depth of cold again until next winter. I would love to be wrong about that, though.


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    #218
    NMB
    Registered Users Posts: 314 ✭✭NMB


    Artic Air being dragged in. Will we have precipitation?? Yes. Oh yes we will no doubt ... based in Dublin cc....


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    #219
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,690 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I must say the Icon model has done very well in the run up to this cold spell and it did quite well in the last one. It never waivered in showing a snowy scenario, when other models had the core of the cold going too far south.


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    #220
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,690 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    gfsnh-0-228_lzv1.png

    A Greenland express incoming in FI, anyone?? Would this be the effects of the zonal wind reversal showing up?


    but before that, the son of the beast is coming:ezgif-2-f81b1767e5.gif.068d9a97f368fba08a797b53c7234bc4.gif


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    #221
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    A very cold northerly to see out the month? Wouldn't surprise me

    gfs-1-336.png?6


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    #222
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,690 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    yes blizzard7, this will do nicely to see out the month.

    06_336_ukthickness.png.359e703d810ad7e35546da26c6e58569.png


    In the meantime hirlam, which tends to be accurate, is showing a fair bit of snow around this weekend:D


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    #223
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,690 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    And ECM is hinting at beast no 3 in time for Easter:D

    M.T. Cranium's holiday might have to be postponed further:pac:


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    #224
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,536 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    A very cold northerly to see out the month? Wouldn't surprise me

    GFS 12z a day later....

    https://twitter.com/TWOweather/status/975056134624153602

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #225
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,536 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 06z today still continues that northerly theme for the end of March.

    YQXa00w.png

    GxHFpxP.png

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #226
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,690 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Yeah they have been showing it consistently now for the last few runs.
    Icon, meanwhile, hints at a possible visit from the son of the son of the beast:confused:

    Whatever happens, it looks like we are going to stay on the cool side for a while yet. As you mentioned before the Atlantic tends to go quiet anyway in April


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    #227
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Yeah they have been showing it consistently now for the last few runs.
    Icon, meanwhile, hints at a possible visit from the son of the son of the beast:confused:

    Whatever happens, it looks like we are going to stay on the cool side for a while yet. As you mentioned before the Atlantic tends to go quiet anyway in April

    Yep. And for what it's worth, the CFS shows no real sign of Spring all the way out until May now.


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    #228
    snowstorm445
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    gabeeg wrote: »
    Yep. And for what it's worth, the CFS shows no real sign of Spring all the way out until May now.

    In fairness that model is known to change its mind with every new run. It’ll almost certainly show raging southwesterlies on the next one. Take it with a pinch of salt. :P


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    #229
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    snowstorm445 wrote: »
    In fairness that model is known to change its mind with every new run. It’ll almost certainly show raging southwesterlies on the next one. Take it with a pinch of salt. :P

    I'm taking it with a hell of a lot more salt than a pinch.

    I've just been checking it lately for any signs of Spring, and so far it has consistently said no chance.
    That said, it may be completely useless. Especially at those ranges.


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    #230
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    GFS still has that Northerly

    gfs-0-276.png?12

    gfs-1-276.png?12


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    #231
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    A lot of moisture around too

    gfs-2-276.png?12


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    #232
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,690 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Well i think the only scientific conclusions that can be reached from these cold spells is (a) Mother arctic Russia love us(b) Sryan and others are being punished for telling the snow to go away:D
    The lesson surely to be learned from all this is never ever turn your back on snow:p


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    #233
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,678 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    ECM 12Z at 240 hr looks to be showing a storm. Staying cold too if I read these correctly.

    ECU1-240_rmo9.GIF

    ECU0-240_wcl9.GIF

    Not as cold uppers though

    tempresult_pfb3.gif


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    #234
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,678 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Could be an bitter Easter Sunday! Hopefully its not an early April Fools :P

    18_336_preciptype.png.72c56826866f814a6652a51c2eb8a5da.png

    18_324_ukthickness850.png.f11fae71998f50d88a9a0d7e062e9d84.png

    18_324_ukthickness.png.2da62a8c7b4c3d22cefa2b7dfd3f4122.png

    h850t850eu.png

    (Thanks Frosty at Netweather!)


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    #235
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,493 ✭✭✭typhoony


    the easter northerly still being shown, not in the reliable timeframe, not sure the models are handling the transition from cold to mild, gfs wants to create a ficticious cutoff low over Ireland at the weekend, i'd be fairly certain that won't happen, the jet is still too far south but won't take much to shift it north but the azores high needs to return before that can happen


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    #236
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,990 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    typhoony wrote: »
    the easter northerly still being shown, not in the reliable timeframe, not sure the models are handling the transition from cold to mild, gfs wants to create a ficticious cutoff low over Ireland at the weekend, i'd be fairly certain that won't happen, the jet is still too far south but won't take much to shift it north but the azores high needs to return before that can happen
    On the other hand, the ECM is showing high pressure over us with temperatures well into the mid teens. I'll take any of those options but I would prefer the GFS. The ECM is an outlier for the moment anyway.


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    #237
    jdcv94
    Registered Users Posts: 86 ✭✭jdcv94


    634b2278334fdbd437565ee7a0eb17c5.png

    First positive chart in a while for warmies :D.


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    #238
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,140 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    I'm just hoping that it's cloudless despite that slack SW flow!


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    #239
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,536 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    I'm just hoping that it's cloudless despite that slack SW flow!

    At this time of year, it's kind of hit and miss if there's cloud in a setup like the ECM 0z shows in FI. The ideal position is for the high to be centered further northwards in over Ireland to get widespread warmth and sunshine. The south and east would obviously benefit reasonably well in sun from that pattern though could be far better but not the north and west really.

    archives-2012-3-26-0-0.png

    GFS and ECM are polar opposites of each other so we could go either way. My methodology showed a rather average April on the cards with high pressure to the south and a low to the north bringing in April showers and zonal westerlies.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #240
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,140 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    At this time of year, it's kind of hit and miss if there's cloud in a setup like the ECM 0z shows in FI. The ideal position is for the high to be centered further northwards in over Ireland to get widespread warmth and sunshine. The south and east would obviously benefit reasonably well in sun from that pattern though could be far better but not the north and west really.

    I know only too well, it's very regular that in those setup's in the summer the east can have mid to even high 20's while the West and Southwest in particular will bask in cloudy skies with temperatures 10c lower!


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    #241
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,690 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The ECM seems to be out if kilter with the clusters, more of them lean toward the GFS OP. I certainly hope the GFS is correct. I'm ready for the beast from the north. There are tentative signs km79 and others may get their wish in and around mid april. Only a bit over seven months till November now anyway:D. Lets hope we get a very early snowfall this November, then a revist by the father of the beast in early January.


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