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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

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Comments

  • #752
    froog
    Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Oneiric 3 wrote:
    The mistake people often make about journalists, no matter what media outlet they are working for, is that they actually know what they are talking about... they don't. They exist solely to sell a juicy story in order to increase viewership. There is a reason why journalism as a career attracts people who are more inclined towards psychopathy.


    you're mixing up journalists with tv presenters there


  • #753
    Widdershins
    Registered Users Posts: 10,633 ✭✭✭✭Widdershins


    Politicians.


  • #754
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Amazing how people are more interested in Met E and what they are going to tell us to do about this storm than they are about discussing the storm itself. Guilty of it myself.
    As a matter of interest, what specific analysis and software are they privy to that the average tech savvy weather enthusiast can't access and analyse for themselves online? I assume they must have some. But with the internet as open as it is now I'm wondering is a bloated and expensive professional Met service perhaps an unnecessary drag on the Irish taxpayer?


  • #755
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Just one of the many driving factors of this potential storm for Ireland (2m anomaly forecast from the GFS 06z run)

    wrT2zgn.gif


    Large file warning. Could be slow to load.

    New Moon



  • #756
    Villain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    ICON-EU 12z shifts it a little East!

    gustkph_20191001_12_057.jpg?

    Compare to 06z:

    gustkph_20191001_06_063.jpg?


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  • #757
    Villain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    ICON-EU wants to power him in!


    gustkph_20191001_12_060.jpg?

    gustkph_20191001_12_063.jpg?


  • #758
    Discodog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,918 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    Are peak winds likely to be on the southern "eye wall " ?


  • #759
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    froog wrote: »
    you're mixing up journalists with tv presenters there
    I'm not sure there is much distinction between either.
    teresaPNG.png

    New Moon



  • #760
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Discodog wrote: »
    Are peak winds likely to be on the southern "eye wall " ?
    Most likely, but don't be surprised to see some gustiness coming down on its western side also.

    New Moon



  • #761
    Villain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    ICON-EU animation

    https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1179060270758580224?s=20

    That would not be a nice outcome, all eyes on GFS and ARPEGE next


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  • #762
    PukkaStukka
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,181 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Amazing how people are more interested in Met E and what they are going to tell us to do about this storm than they are about discussing the storm itself. Guilty of it myself.
    As a matter of interest, what specific analysis and software are they privy to that the average tech savvy weather enthusiast can't access and analyse for themselves online? I assume they must have some. But with the internet as open as it is now I'm wondering is a bloated and expensive professional Met service perhaps an unnecessary drag on the Irish taxpayer?
    And a few minutes ago had someone say ME need Barry Kenny type PR people to get the message across to the public. Jesus wept.


  • #763
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Villain wrote: »
    ICON-EU wants to power him in!

    Honest to god, I find this all fascinating and exciting in a perverse way that sort of wants to see how it feels when it hits. But when I see that graph I think of the potential damage and casualties and I wince and think "actually no, I hope it misses" . .


  • #764
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Will be interesting to see how they issue warnings in the morning

    Must be an awful job, damned if you do and damned if you don't


  • #765
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    See the cold air cumulus streets in from the northwest in the top left corner.

    a8d77985852f097405cb9977d2101f639fe4f9706088fd2deaf926e01ac94269.gif


  • #766
    Victor Meldrew
    Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭Victor Meldrew


    Villain wrote: »
    ICON-EU animation

    https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1179060270758580224?s=20

    That would not be a nice outcome, all eyes on GFS and ARPEGE next

    So does that show it taking a "hard right" turn east at Mayo? Practically a 90 degree turn inland?

    Is that normal or / driven by jetatream?

    Seems weird trajectory.


  • #767
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    I have opened up a 'general chat' thread for this storm potential. Might be best if we keep this thread exclusively for tech analysis & the posting of the latest charts etc. It'll be easier all round to help find the latest info and thoughts about Lorenzo rather than having to scroll back about 10 pages to find them as things begin to hot up.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin//showthread.php?t=2058019653

    New Moon



  • #768
    aidanodr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,850 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Honest to god, I find this all fascinating and exciting in a perverse way that sort of wants to see how it feels when it hits. But when I see that graph I think of the potential damage and casualties and I wince and think "actually no, I hope it misses" . .

    https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1179065910876889088

    If this is the case then A RED for the whole country thur/fri?? Depends on max winds though?


  • #769
    uck51js9zml2yt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    PukkaStukka wrote: »
    I know both Mr Kenny and Ms Cusack and I can assure you both are equally accomplished at being in front of the camera. They both do their jobs because of the specific skill and expertise they bring. I wouldn't want Barry explaining a hurricane for the same reason I wouldn't want Evelyn telling me why my train is late

    Since we're name dropping...I work with Joanna ....,..,............,...........................albeit in a different government department :D


  • #770
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Honest to god, I find this all fascinating and exciting in a perverse way that sort of wants to see how it feels when it hits. But when I see that graph I think of the potential damage and casualties and I wince and think "actually no, I hope it misses" . .

    A lot depends where you live and how badly that place is affected. Out here is very different from a town. It will be a duration of extreme often deafening noise. Not safe to be outside. We are bare of trees..

    Although if you venture out, the sight of the ocean is utter.... power. If you can stand up in the wind. IF! You have to take care about standing! The gale breathes for you.

    I live in what they call a demountable dwelling , ie basically an aluminium capsule. No sound proofing and it is the noise that affects me badly. Not safe to use earplugs as you need to be alert to any further danger.

    And there is danger. A raw sheer power that we can do nothing to curb. Just be aware and wary. Here Callum was the worst I have ever experienced out here. The dwelling shook and rattled. Maybe the direction it came from; I don't know.

    My reaction is coloured also by the big tsunami as we lost loved ones. I was in Leitrim and we had a big storm soon after, and it was then my gale terror started.

    Respect it and it will respect you.

    Onwards.. " and let loose the dogs of war"!


  • #771
    YanSno
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    CduX9Hm.jpg


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  • #772
    squarecircles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,101 ✭✭✭squarecircles




  • #773
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,302 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    squarecircles wrote: »

    sure he is safe out saying what strength the wind will be at sea,dodged giving a forecast for onshore or giving where would be hit worst


  • #774
    donal.hunt
    Registered Users Posts: 335 ✭✭donal.hunt


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    sure he is safe out saying what strength the wind will be at sea,dodged giving a forecast for onshore or giving where would be hit worst

    Intentional I suspect given the careful dance everyone has been doing so far. Don't need a bread shortage on top of a beef shortage! ;)


  • #775
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,651 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    When does the emergency meeting finish?


  • #776
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    aidanodr wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1179065910876889088

    If this is the case then A RED for the whole country thur/fri?? Depends on max winds though?

    My own take is that red counties are only western coastal counties as things stand. Further inland orange but most of the country a yellow warning.

    As things stand


  • #777
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,302 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    donal.hunt wrote: »
    Intentional I suspect given the careful dance everyone has been doing so far. Don't need a bread shortage on top of a beef shortage! ;)

    of course it was intentional, taking no responsibility due to the high criticism forecasts have gotten in the past


  • #778
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    ECM tonight will tell a lot I think. It’s slowly been heading further south and east on each run.


  • #779
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,851 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Do ppl think this could become a red alert and if so what sections of the country ?


  • #780
    squarecircles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,101 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    It seems to me a RED Alert is now becoming increasingly likely for counties along the west coast,especially the immediate coastlines from Galway northwards perhaps.


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  • #781
    donal.hunt
    Registered Users Posts: 335 ✭✭donal.hunt


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    When does the emergency meeting finish?

    When they have enough words to placate the "can I have Thursday off?" crowd for another 12 hours. Would expect a holding statement that indicates disruption is expected but it's still unclear where and when.

    I personally think at-risk locations need tomorrow to make preparations because Wednesday night / Thursday morning will be too late.


  • #782
    aidanodr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,850 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1179079604784500736

    Thoughts on this? 2 for the price of 1


  • #783
    c.p.w.g.w
    Registered Users Posts: 4,994 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Just one of the many driving factors of this potential storm for Ireland (2m anomaly forecast from the GFS 06z run)

    wrT2zgn.gif


    Large file warning. Could be slow to load.

    Why does Greenland look like Africa in that model?


  • #784
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,230 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    El_Bee wrote: »
    Sun is shining and the ground's dry already here in North Dublin, so much for that lol

    So much for the storm that's thousands of kilometres away?


  • #785
    antodeco
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,585 ✭✭✭✭antodeco


    El_Bee wrote: »
    Sun is shining and the ground's dry already here in North Dublin, so much for that lol

    I know! I hate when the post storm weather arrives BEFORE the storm hits.....


  • #786
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,073 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM Rapid Hi Res model showing increasingly stronger winds . Certainly looks like we are getting into the high end warnings if these charts were to verify, tonight's and tomorrow mornings charts will be crucial. Time to go yet to fine tune.


    TcBlusF.png

    8ZifZJB.png


    ozXgFBI.png

    ZN8IZKI.png

    UCkD1qA.png

    HBEmfZt.png


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  • #787
    dsmythy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,520 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    c.p.w.g.w wrote: »
    Why does Greenland look like Africa in that model?

    It's temperature anomaly. Greenland is currently very warm compared to its average temperature.


  • #788
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    George Lee always leaves out Donegal when hes talking about the Western Counties at risk - (Kerry to Sligo). Not sure if he is just forgetting about Donegal or whether or not he thinks its not at risk.


  • #789
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    donal.hunt wrote: »
    When they have enough words to placate the "can I have Thursday off?" crowd for another 12 hours. Would expect a holding statement that indicates disruption is expected but it's still unclear where and when.

    I personally think at-risk locations need tomorrow to make preparations because Wednesday night / Thursday morning will be too late.


    Agree totally, and all set here. Left the shopping supplies to the experts. will not be the first or last time they have had to adapt etc.

    Just caught the reports on the news re the Homeless charities seeking resources. Cannot link but easy enough to find on eg breakingnews. Lorenzo has many facets


  • #790
    dsmythy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,520 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Pangea wrote: »
    George Lee always leaves out Donegal when hes talking about the Western Counties at risk - (Kerry to Sligo). Not sure if he is just forgetting about Donegal or whether or not he thinks its not at risk.

    It could turn at Donegal and save them some of the wind.


  • #791
    TTLF
    Registered Users Posts: 672 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    Not sure if anyone else noticed, but

    As we know, this storm (somewhat) isn't as strong as Ophelia was, but it's path directory is worse then Ophelia's. Obviously no two storms are the same, but since this one has a lot of rain coming with it, (and already with the damp soils here in S. Co Dublin from the last 24 hours of constant rain.) Does anyone think the storm will effect the rivers badly?

    The River Dodder is SUPER high up currently, and I mean another 10mm or less and it'll break it's banks. How much rain would you think E coast would get Thursday-Friday? 15mm?


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  • #792
    m17
    Registered Users Posts: 4,321 ✭✭✭m17




  • #793
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    TTLF wrote: »
    Not sure if anyone else noticed, but

    As we know, this storm (somewhat) isn't as strong as Ophelia was, but it's path directory is worse then Ophelia's. Obviously no two storms are the same, but since this one has a lot of rain coming with it, (and already with the damp soils here in S. Co Dublin from the last 24 hours of constant rain.) Does anyone think the storm will effect the rivers badly?

    The River Dodder is SUPER high up currently, and I mean another 10mm or less and it'll break it's banks. How much rain would you think E coast would get Thursday-Friday? 15mm?


    http://waterlevel.ie/0000009010/

    http://waterlevel.ie/0000009010/0001/week/


  • #794
    TTLF
    Registered Users Posts: 672 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    Captain Snow wrote: »
    http://waterlevel.ie/0000009010/

    http://waterlevel.ie/0000009010/0001/week/

    How does these two sites work? (I'm a little confused by them, guessing they just show the current water level?)


  • #795
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    TTLF wrote: »
    How does these two sites work? (I'm a little confused by them, guessing they just show the current water level?)

    Shows water levels on alot of the countrys rivers.


  • #796
    RobbingBandit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,191 ✭✭✭✭RobbingBandit


    Can someone sticky that ESB power check site might be a good idea for the next few days.


  • #797
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Looking at the charts I have as much concerns about rainfall as the strength of the winds.
    Looks to a serious amount of rain with it


  • #798
    aidanodr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,850 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    RobbingBandit wrote: »
    Can someone sticky that ESB power check site might be a good idea for the next few days.

    Also keep in mind that the POWERCHECK app is available at both PlayStore and AppStore.


  • #799
    donal.hunt
    Registered Users Posts: 335 ✭✭donal.hunt


    Can we keep this to technical discussions please. There is a chat thread for logistical / human impact discussion, etc. :)


  • #800
    giveitholly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,719 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    ZX7R wrote: »
    Looking at the charts I have as much concerns about rainfall as the strength of the winds.
    Looks to a serious amount of rain with it

    Roughly what totals are showing at the moment?


  • #801
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    giveitholly wrote: »
    Roughly what totals are showing at the moment?

    From my understanding 50mm maybe more


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