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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

Jpmarn

Starting a new thread on what is a tropical Hurricane Lorenzo which is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Azores. More details can be found in the Hurricane season Thread. I am giving Lorenzo it's own thread because at present models are bringing the Storm towards Ireland. Models at present are keeping out to sea with only minimal impact on Ireland at the moment. The latest model run are bringing the storm a bit closer to the west coast. If the storm in it’s extra tropical state should have a direct hit on Ireland it could generate wind gusts of over 160 Kmh. The storm is due nearest us next Thursday or Friday.

Mod Note:This thread is going to get very busy over the coming days and we would ask posters to adhere to the forum charter. Most importantly keep it civil and friendly. There will be no time for messing and it is imperative that the thread is not dragged off topic.

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[Deleted User]

Amazing how people are more interested in Met E and what they are going to tell us to do about this storm than they are about discussing the storm itself. Guilty of it myself.
As a matter of interest, what specific analysis and software are they privy to that the average tech savvy weather enthusiast can't access and analyse for themselves online? I assume they must have some. But with the internet as open as it is now I'm wondering is a bloated and expensive professional Met service perhaps an unnecessary drag on the Irish taxpayer?

Oneiric 3

Just one of the many driving factors of this potential storm for Ireland (2m anomaly forecast from the GFS 06z run)

Large file warning. Could be slow to load.

Villain

ICON-EU 12z shifts it a little East!

gustkph_20191001_12_057.jpg?

Compare to 06z:

gustkph_20191001_06_063.jpg?

Villain

ICON-EU wants to power him in!

gustkph_20191001_12_060.jpg?

Discodog

Are peak winds likely to be on the southern "eye wall " ?

Oneiric 3

froog wrote: »

you're mixing up journalists with tv presenters there

I'm not sure there is much distinction between either.

Oneiric 3

Discodog wrote: »

Are peak winds likely to be on the southern "eye wall " ?

Most likely, but don't be surprised to see some gustiness coming down on its western side also.

Villain

ICON-EU animation

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1179060270758580224?s=20

That would not be a nice outcome, all eyes on GFS and ARPEGE next

PukkaStukka

Deleted User wrote: »

Amazing how people are more interested in Met E and what they are going to tell us to do about this storm than they are about discussing the storm itself. Guilty of it myself.
As a matter of interest, what specific analysis and software are they privy to that the average tech savvy weather enthusiast can't access and analyse for themselves online? I assume they must have some. But with the internet as open as it is now I'm wondering is a bloated and expensive professional Met service perhaps an unnecessary drag on the Irish taxpayer?

And a few minutes ago had someone say ME need Barry Kenny type PR people to get the message across to the public. Jesus wept.

Drumpot

Villain wrote: »

ICON-EU wants to power him in!

Honest to god, I find this all fascinating and exciting in a perverse way that sort of wants to see how it feels when it hits. But when I see that graph I think of the potential damage and casualties and I wince and think "actually no, I hope it misses" . .

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Will be interesting to see how they issue warnings in the morning

Must be an awful job, damned if you do and damned if you don't

Gaoth Laidir

See the cold air cumulus streets in from the northwest in the top left corner.

a8d77985852f097405cb9977d2101f639fe4f9706088fd2deaf926e01ac94269.gif

a8d77985852f097405cb9977d2101f639fe4f9706088fd2deaf926e01ac94269.gif

Victor Meldrew

Villain wrote: »

ICON-EU animation

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1179060270758580224?s=20

That would not be a nice outcome, all eyes on GFS and ARPEGE next

So does that show it taking a "hard right" turn east at Mayo? Practically a 90 degree turn inland?

Is that normal or / driven by jetatream?

Seems weird trajectory.

Oneiric 3

I have opened up a 'general chat' thread for this storm potential. Might be best if we keep this thread exclusively for tech analysis & the posting of the latest charts etc. It'll be easier all round to help find the latest info and thoughts about Lorenzo rather than having to scroll back about 10 pages to find them as things begin to hot up.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin//showthread.php?t=2058019653

aidanodr

Drumpot wrote: »

Honest to god, I find this all fascinating and exciting in a perverse way that sort of wants to see how it feels when it hits. But when I see that graph I think of the potential damage and casualties and I wince and think "actually no, I hope it misses" . .

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1179065910876889088

If this is the case then A RED for the whole country thur/fri?? Depends on max winds though?

uck51js9zml2yt

PukkaStukka wrote: »

I know both Mr Kenny and Ms Cusack and I can assure you both are equally accomplished at being in front of the camera. They both do their jobs because of the specific skill and expertise they bring. I wouldn't want Barry explaining a hurricane for the same reason I wouldn't want Evelyn telling me why my train is late

Since we're name dropping...I work with Joanna ....,..,............,...........................albeit in a different government department

Graces7

Drumpot wrote: »

Honest to god, I find this all fascinating and exciting in a perverse way that sort of wants to see how it feels when it hits. But when I see that graph I think of the potential damage and casualties and I wince and think "actually no, I hope it misses" . .

A lot depends where you live and how badly that place is affected. Out here is very different from a town. It will be a duration of extreme often deafening noise. Not safe to be outside. We are bare of trees..

Although if you venture out, the sight of the ocean is utter.... power. If you can stand up in the wind. IF! You have to take care about standing! The gale breathes for you.

I live in what they call a demountable dwelling , ie basically an aluminium capsule. No sound proofing and it is the noise that affects me badly. Not safe to use earplugs as you need to be alert to any further danger.

And there is danger. A raw sheer power that we can do nothing to curb. Just be aware and wary. Here Callum was the worst I have ever experienced out here. The dwelling shook and rattled. Maybe the direction it came from; I don't know.

My reaction is coloured also by the big tsunami as we lost loved ones. I was in Leitrim and we had a big storm soon after, and it was then my gale terror started.

Respect it and it will respect you.

Onwards.. " and let loose the dogs of war"!

YanSno

squarecircles

Widdensushi

squarecircles wrote: »

sure he is safe out saying what strength the wind will be at sea,dodged giving a forecast for onshore or giving where would be hit worst

donal.hunt

Widdensushi wrote: »

sure he is safe out saying what strength the wind will be at sea,dodged giving a forecast for onshore or giving where would be hit worst

Intentional I suspect given the careful dance everyone has been doing so far. Don't need a bread shortage on top of a beef shortage!

igCorcaigh

When does the emergency meeting finish?

Kermit.de.frog

aidanodr wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1179065910876889088

If this is the case then A RED for the whole country thur/fri?? Depends on max winds though?

My own take is that red counties are only western coastal counties as things stand. Further inland orange but most of the country a yellow warning.

As things stand

Widdensushi

donal.hunt wrote: »

Intentional I suspect given the careful dance everyone has been doing so far. Don't need a bread shortage on top of a beef shortage!

of course it was intentional, taking no responsibility due to the high criticism forecasts have gotten in the past

SleetAndSnow

ECM tonight will tell a lot I think. It’s slowly been heading further south and east on each run.

Beechwoodspark

Do ppl think this could become a red alert and if so what sections of the country ?

squarecircles

It seems to me a RED Alert is now becoming increasingly likely for counties along the west coast,especially the immediate coastlines from Galway northwards perhaps.

donal.hunt

igCorcaigh wrote: »

When does the emergency meeting finish?

When they have enough words to placate the "can I have Thursday off?" crowd for another 12 hours. Would expect a holding statement that indicates disruption is expected but it's still unclear where and when.

I personally think at-risk locations need tomorrow to make preparations because Wednesday night / Thursday morning will be too late.

aidanodr

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1179079604784500736

Thoughts on this? 2 for the price of 1

c.p.w.g.w

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Just one of the many driving factors of this potential storm for Ireland (2m anomaly forecast from the GFS 06z run)

Large file warning. Could be slow to load.

Why does Greenland look like Africa in that model?