Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

Graces7

The Mig wrote: »

Should I go for the bread and milk now for the week just in case?

Mine for 2 weeks is due on Thursday! Although I could manage for a month or more if need be anyways....dried milk etc and make bread...oh and potatoes from the garden

west mayo offshore island

pad199207

Awh ffs!

m17

sryanbruen

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Sorry, but what does the colour indicate on those charts? Air pressure?

500mb heights. Orange and yellow colours indicate high heights which usually extrapolate to higher pressure. Green, blue and purple indicate low heights which usually extrapolate to lower pressure. The lower the scale, the deeper the upper cyclone is and the higher the scale, the stronger the upper ridge is.

Villain

GFS just wants to keep us guessing

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1178615120429232128?s=20

m17

pauldry

Now im confused

Was sure this would brush the West n miss us

Now uncertain

See uncertain is a dangerous weather term

Strangegravy

Looking at the GFS tracking it back East again and up over us!

Seems like the stronger it stays as a system, the more West into the Atlantic it goes in the model predictions, and the weaker it gets, the more East towards the Bay of Biscay - happy (unhappy) medium - straight up through the country, taking out Cork, Kerry and Waterford first??

PokeHerKing

pauldry wrote: »

Now im confused

Was sure this would brush the West n miss us

Now uncertain

See uncertain is a dangerous weather term

Its still 4/5 days away. You should not be confused that the exact track could or would change.

Gaoth Laidir

sryanbruen wrote: »

500mb heights. Orange and yellow colours indicate above average heights which usually extrapolate to higher pressure. Green, blue and purple indicative average to below average heights which usually extrapolate to lower pressure. The lower the scale, the deeper the upper cyclone is and the higher the scale, the stronger the upper ridge is.

The colours are actually not related to average heights. It's just an incremental colour scale, from purple (low) to red (high).

thomasj

pauldry wrote: »

Now im confused

Was sure this would brush the West n miss us

Now uncertain

See uncertain is a dangerous weather term

Is this not what happened with Ophelia?

It looked like it would miss us for days before then as it got closer it changed track

thomasj

Sorry duplicate post

squarecircles

On Thursday Lorenzo (currently predicted to be a ex tropical storm at this stage)
is likely to be in the vicinity. It's exact track and central pressure is still
very uncertain as is the timing.

It is most likely to track northwards and stay to west of Ireland.
Some wet and windy wetaher is expected but nothing exceptional at this stage.
It will become mild over the country due to the influence of the tropical origin air.
The risk of severe weather continues and the progress of Lorenzo
and any potential impacts for Ireland are being closely monitored by Met Eireann.

Oasis1974

squarecircles wrote: »

On Thursday Lorenzo (currently predicted to be a ex tropical storm at this stage) is likely to be in the vicinity. It's exact track and central pressure is still very uncertain as is the timing. It is most likely to track northwards and stay to west of Ireland. Some wet and windy wetaher is expected but nothing exceptional at this stage. It will become mild over the countrydue to the influence of the tropical origin air. The risk of severe weather continues and the progress of Lorenzo and any potential impacts for Ireland are being closely monitored by Met Eireann.

Just relax already don't be scaring people lol.

Laurali

The track is very uncertain obviously, but regardless of what track it takes will the Atlantic be very bad afterwards? looks like a bad couple of weeks for Ireland just in terms of miserable weather.

I'm even worse than a novice in terms of this stuff, just looking at Ventusky.

I'm flying next Sunday from Dublin to JFK and Home on the Wednesday..

squarecircles

Oasis1974 wrote: »

Just relax already don't be scaring people lol.

My Apologies.


On thursday some wet and windy wetaher is expected but nothing exceptional at this stage.
It will become mild over the country due to the influence of the tropical origin air.



Met Eireann

jirafa

Dr. Simon Keeling from weatherweb.net doesn't even mention Lorenzo on his latest Farming Weather Week Ahead Video (30/9/19)


http://premium.weatherweb.net/2019/09/30/free-video-farming-weather-week-ahead-30-9-19/

John.Icy

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The gfs has been exceptional in this event with every run for the last 2 days taking the storm West of Ireland. The other 2 have come kicking and screaming over to gfs thinking this morning. Interesting how Met Eireann backed the ecm and showed the undercut and even noaa were slow to acknowledge the gfs could be right.
Let they be no doubt who won this model battle and keep in mind the Icon is also performing very well of late

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

GFS 6Z putting the halters on your GFS championing of the last few days till the next run at least. More than one scenario is still possible.

amandstu

Don't like the look of this one
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/10/03/2100Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-29.13,52.71,3000/loc=-34.806,55.516

sdanseo

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The gfs has been exceptional in this event with every run for the last 2 days taking the storm West of Ireland. The other 2 have come kicking and screaming over to gfs thinking this morning. Interesting how Met Eireann backed the ecm and showed the undercut and even noaa were slow to acknowledge the gfs could be right.
Let they be no doubt who won this model battle and keep in mind the Icon is also performing very well of late

For the 2 days before that it was showing close to a direct hit.

These cyclones are impossible to predict accurately at that range. It will be tomorrow night into Wednesday before we have a real idea of the eventual evolution and even then might be Wednesday's 12Z before there is some sort of consensus.

squarecircles wrote: »

On Thursday Lorenzo (currently predicted to be a ex tropical storm at this stage)
is likely to be in the vicinity. It's exact track and central pressure is still
very uncertain as is the timing.

It is most likely to track northwards and stay to west of Ireland.
Some wet and windy wetaher is expected but nothing exceptional at this stage.
It will become mild over the country due to the influence of the tropical origin air.
The risk of severe weather continues and the progress of Lorenzo
and any potential impacts for Ireland are being closely monitored by Met Eireann.

The part you didn't highlight (my emphasis underlined above) is just as important as the part you did.

On the whole I think this is a very fair summary from MÉ, they have got the balance right. Their job is to present the facts, not skew them.
What the gutter tabloids decide to do with that is beyond their control.

amandstu wrote: »

Don't like the look of this one
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/10/03/2100Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-29.13,52.71,3000/loc=-34.806,55.516

This is probably the worst case scenario as the current models go. Barely a red warning for extreme coasts. Mean speeds >80km/h only right at the coast, well below that inland.
Orange for Galway and Mayo and yellow everywhere else (if anything at all) would be my guess.

sryanbruen

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The colours are actually not related to average heights. It's just an incremental colour scale, from purple (low) to red (high).

Think I was thinking of the anomaly maps that I normally look at when I said average :P oops! Fixed it thanks.

US2

Got ate at work for hoping this hits us hard by the same people who hope for feet of snow in winter :-/

froog

US2 wrote:

Got ate at work for hoping this hits us hard by the same people who hope for feet of snow in winter :-/

you want a hurricane to hit us??

sdanseo

froog wrote: »

you want a hurricane to hit us??

This is the weather forum. Most people here are going to be weather enthusiasts.

Balancing the excitement of extreme weather against the damage it does is something we all reconcile in our own way. My own view is that we can't do anything about it (in the short term, yes there is the climate debate, that is not relevant in this context however) so we may as well make the best of it, and if needed collectively inform others to take precautions.

US2

froog wrote: »

you want a hurricane to hit us??

There is no hope of a hurricane hitting us but yes I love storms, the stronger the better. No different to people enjoying extreme heatwaves in summer or heavey snow storms in winter.

TTLF

US2 wrote: »

There is no hope of a hurricane hitting us but yes I love storms, the stronger the better. No different to people enjoying extreme heatwaves in summer or heavey snow storms in winter.

Typically it won’t be a proper hurricane if it did hit us, but extropical is still as cool as any other storm so I’ll take that


Currently pissing down in S.Dublin too

Graces7

US2 wrote: »

There is no hope of a hurricane hitting us but yes I love storms, the stronger the better. No different to people enjoying extreme heatwaves in summer or heavey snow storms in winter.

:eek::rolleyes:

Snow Garden

I love storms too. Absolutely love them. The more powerful the better.
They make the Earth seem wildly alive and remind me how wonderful and mighty nature is. I find them very grounding actually.






Queue the virtue signalling...
.

RobertKK

US2 wrote: »

Got ate at work for hoping this hits us hard by the same people who hope for feet of snow in winter :-/

Snow Garden wrote: »

I love storms too. Absolutely love them. The more powerful the better.
They make the Earth seem wildly alive and remind me how wonderful and mighty nature is. I find them very grounding actually.

The more powerful the better?
We had a number of people killed from storms in recent years.
It would be like me saying 'I hope the people who want these powerful storms are the ones who are worst affected'
We should not want powerful storms that are 'the more powerful the better'. People die in these storms, and you should only want them more powerful if one would not care if their own loved are the people among the death toll statistics.
We can see the beauty of nature and life on this planet without it being destructive.

DOCARCH

Mod Note: Please stay on topic and drop the debate on the 'morals' of wanting/not wanting storms. Storms will/will not happen no matter peoples wants and wishes!