Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

JanuarySnowstor

Ophelia was the stongest storm I ever witnessed in Cork anyway. It was extraordinary in both strength and how long it lasted. I appreciate it may have been local event but have no doubt it was fierce in Cork

igCorcaigh

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Ophelia was the stongest storm I ever witnessed in Cork anyway. It was extraordinary in both strength and how long it lasted. I appreciate it may have been local event but have no doubt it was fierce in Cork

It was scary AF!

We were off work on the Monday morning.
I sat inside enjoying the storm, but had all the curtains closed for fear of something coming through the window.

Imagine being outside in it!

Oneiric 3

Pretty crap quality gif animation here, but shows all the complications that forecasters and the models have to face regarding Lorenzo at the moment, from that large trough exiting Canada, the disorganized jet stream over the N Atlantic and ridge to the NW that doesn't know what to do with itself.
Chart is based on the ICON 6hr analysis + 5 hour forecasts for the last couple of days (may take a whileen to load)

Larbre34

pad199207 wrote: »

Met Eireann definitely sounding that they are concerned about this. Perhaps they been told or know something we don’t yet..

I think the Met and the other Govt Depts concerned with civil protection are concious of the accusations of crying wolf over previous weather alerts and that rather than feed into that tabloid narrative they will hold fire on advance warnings until they have model resolution to a high confidence and can assemble the National Emergency Coordination Group to orchestrate a concrete warning level at 24 to 36 hours notice with certain advice to schools, workplaces and homeowners.

I should declare I personally don't think they did cry wolf in relation to notable events in recent years, they used the best data available and certain people in the media and public life need to get some perspective about the science of this stuff.

irishgeo

Snow Garden wrote: »

Interesting. This could be like Storm Ali which was very strong in Galway/Mayo. It hit hard between 8am and 11am.
The damage was made worse by the fact the trees still had leaves. I saw 2 trees uprooted on the 20 min drive to work but there were many more already fallen.

ahh yes the drive home after nightshift was fun that morning, took ages. Most interesting thing was someone coal bunker flying across stone walls in fields and then across the n17. luckily i had seen it coming.

TTLF

When’s the ECM run out?

lcasey90

Regardless of the outcome I'm finding this interesting seeing how our weather systems interact with each other. It's also interesting to see how well the models can work when there is so many variables involved

Mental Mickey

Missed the jaysus forecast. What's the latest?

taytobreath

Is there a website that shows the jet stream going off in 2 different directions.

REBELSAFC

sryanbruen wrote: »

Roche’s Point had a max 10 minute mean wind speed of 115 kph which was a new October record for Ireland. Big analysis on Ophelia here:

https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2018/10/OpheliaReport.pdf

Sherkin Island lost electricity very early during Ophelia. I'm convinced that the Roches Point records would have been topped there if the power hadn't failed.

jt69er

http://ventusky.com

Kristopherus

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Missed the jaysus forecast. What's the latest?

Re Lorenzo, uncertain. Showery tomorrow and mostly fine on Wednesday.

Gaoth Laidir

The latest ADT intensity estimate suggests it's taken a nosedive and is now down to 65 knots.

dacogawa

New ECM coming out now

JanuarySnowstor

Ecm agrees with others bringing it to our West coast at 72hrs. We now have solid agreement on this. The next question is does it then move back over the country. Highest risk area at the moment is the North and Northwest

JanuarySnowstor

Does it not cross the country meteorite?

Mount Vesuvius

I saw it as just off west coast then turns right back over us

Meteorite58

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Does it not cross the country meteorite?

My apologies it does seem to , just spotted that , must get to the computer !

Kermit.de.frog

Darwin

Hard to see exactly what it does with ECM model on the meteociel charts as they only show 24 hour time steps. Waiting on weather.us to update as it shows 3 hour time intervals for wind gusts.

Meteorite58

Looks strong on this run. Will see Meteologix shortly



850 hPa Winds

SleetAndSnow

Too me, the ECM goes up the west, back down the country, over the UK and into europe. I think it looks like the entire country could get some strong winds bar the south coast maybe, but that depends on how much the wind weakens are it passes over land and I could be totally wrong.

mickger844posts

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Ecm agrees with others bringing it to our West coast at 72hrs. We now have solid agreement on this. The next question is does it then move back over the country. Highest risk area at the moment is the North and Northwest

Looking at the Jet Stream forecasts it is quite possible it could move back in over the country. This is what the GFS is picking up on and reflecting this in its output.
ECM is probably doing the same but with 24 hours between frames its not as obvious as on the GFS.
Still remains to be seen how strong the storm will be when its arrives and possibly tracks over the country.

ninebeanrows

EC brings it over country— similar to its 6z ru —- would be low Orange level wind event for lots of country, high orange northwest.

naughto

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

EC brings it over country— similar to its 6z ru —- would be low Orange level wind event for lots of country, high orange northwest.

Go red and I’ll be your friend for life

4068ac1elhodqr

Not a tech chart or anything, just a screengrab of windymcwindyface from v-sky:

In average Joe terms, it shows that at Thur 10am 100mph gusts about x3 Gal-Dubs away, if that should shift position about 500km in to the East, maybe bring in the washing from the line incase it goes a flying.

pauldry

If it follows the jet it will be very serious but still time for it to leave us fairly unscathed.

Northwest can cope with winds up to 70 knots but the rest of the country doesnt have the lack of infrastructure for this bar Connemara n Kerry

Very interesting one alright.

The whole world might be on boards on Thursday

Hope ye have the back up server ready

TheRiverman

It will not be a hurricane if it hits or comes close to us.Am I right in thinking that Ophelia still had Hurricane status when it hit us two years ago.

Pangea

Do we think that a red alert will be issued if it hits us directly?

US2

TheRiverman wrote: »

It will not be a hurricane if it hits or comes close to us.Am I right in thinking that Ophelia still had Hurricane status when it hit us two years ago.

No, it didn't. Extropical storm.