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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

Jpmarn

Starting a new thread on what is a tropical Hurricane Lorenzo which is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Azores. More details can be found in the Hurricane season Thread. I am giving Lorenzo it's own thread because at present models are bringing the Storm towards Ireland. Models at present are keeping out to sea with only minimal impact on Ireland at the moment. The latest model run are bringing the storm a bit closer to the west coast. If the storm in it’s extra tropical state should have a direct hit on Ireland it could generate wind gusts of over 160 Kmh. The storm is due nearest us next Thursday or Friday.

Mod Note:This thread is going to get very busy over the coming days and we would ask posters to adhere to the forum charter. Most importantly keep it civil and friendly. There will be no time for messing and it is imperative that the thread is not dragged off topic.

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JCX BXC

El_Bee wrote: »

Sun is shining and the ground's dry already here in North Dublin, so much for that lol

So much for the storm that's thousands of kilometres away?

antodeco

El_Bee wrote: »

Sun is shining and the ground's dry already here in North Dublin, so much for that lol

I know! I hate when the post storm weather arrives BEFORE the storm hits.....

Meteorite58

ECM Rapid Hi Res model showing increasingly stronger winds . Certainly looks like we are getting into the high end warnings if these charts were to verify, tonight's and tomorrow mornings charts will be crucial. Time to go yet to fine tune.

dsmythy

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Why does Greenland look like Africa in that model?

It's temperature anomaly. Greenland is currently very warm compared to its average temperature.

Pangea

George Lee always leaves out Donegal when hes talking about the Western Counties at risk - (Kerry to Sligo). Not sure if he is just forgetting about Donegal or whether or not he thinks its not at risk.

Graces7

donal.hunt wrote: »

When they have enough words to placate the "can I have Thursday off?" crowd for another 12 hours. Would expect a holding statement that indicates disruption is expected but it's still unclear where and when.

I personally think at-risk locations need tomorrow to make preparations because Wednesday night / Thursday morning will be too late.

Agree totally, and all set here. Left the shopping supplies to the experts. will not be the first or last time they have had to adapt etc.

Just caught the reports on the news re the Homeless charities seeking resources. Cannot link but easy enough to find on eg breakingnews. Lorenzo has many facets

dsmythy

Pangea wrote: »

George Lee always leaves out Donegal when hes talking about the Western Counties at risk - (Kerry to Sligo). Not sure if he is just forgetting about Donegal or whether or not he thinks its not at risk.

It could turn at Donegal and save them some of the wind.

TTLF

Not sure if anyone else noticed, but

As we know, this storm (somewhat) isn't as strong as Ophelia was, but it's path directory is worse then Ophelia's. Obviously no two storms are the same, but since this one has a lot of rain coming with it, (and already with the damp soils here in S. Co Dublin from the last 24 hours of constant rain.) Does anyone think the storm will effect the rivers badly?

The River Dodder is SUPER high up currently, and I mean another 10mm or less and it'll break it's banks. How much rain would you think E coast would get Thursday-Friday? 15mm?

m17

Captain Snow

TTLF wrote: »

Not sure if anyone else noticed, but

As we know, this storm (somewhat) isn't as strong as Ophelia was, but it's path directory is worse then Ophelia's. Obviously no two storms are the same, but since this one has a lot of rain coming with it, (and already with the damp soils here in S. Co Dublin from the last 24 hours of constant rain.) Does anyone think the storm will effect the rivers badly?

The River Dodder is SUPER high up currently, and I mean another 10mm or less and it'll break it's banks. How much rain would you think E coast would get Thursday-Friday? 15mm?

http://waterlevel.ie/0000009010/

http://waterlevel.ie/0000009010/0001/week/

TTLF

Captain Snow wrote: »

http://waterlevel.ie/0000009010/

http://waterlevel.ie/0000009010/0001/week/

How does these two sites work? (I'm a little confused by them, guessing they just show the current water level?)

Captain Snow

TTLF wrote: »

How does these two sites work? (I'm a little confused by them, guessing they just show the current water level?)

Shows water levels on alot of the countrys rivers.

RobbingBandit

Can someone sticky that ESB power check site might be a good idea for the next few days.

ZX7R

Looking at the charts I have as much concerns about rainfall as the strength of the winds.
Looks to a serious amount of rain with it

aidanodr

RobbingBandit wrote: »

Can someone sticky that ESB power check site might be a good idea for the next few days.

Also keep in mind that the POWERCHECK app is available at both PlayStore and AppStore.

donal.hunt

Can we keep this to technical discussions please. There is a chat thread for logistical / human impact discussion, etc.

giveitholly

ZX7R wrote: »

Looking at the charts I have as much concerns about rainfall as the strength of the winds.
Looks to a serious amount of rain with it

Roughly what totals are showing at the moment?

ZX7R

giveitholly wrote: »

Roughly what totals are showing at the moment?

From my understanding 50mm maybe more

Storm 10

Ryanair on the ground at the Azores Airport

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/portugal/azores/ponta-delgada-airport.html

antodeco

donal.hunt wrote: »

Can we keep this to technical discussions please. There is a chat thread for logistical / human impact discussion, etc.

Title still says [CHAT]. Thats where the confusion is.

jimmynokia

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/storm-lorenzo-minister-warns-of-ferocious-and-dangerous-wave-surges-along-irelands-coast-38553405.html

Gaoth Laidir

Widdensushi wrote: »

sure he is safe out saying what strength the wind will be at sea,dodged giving a forecast for onshore or giving where would be hit worst

He got his speed wrong for 12Z on Thursday. Said 140 kph mean speed but it should be 130.

Gaoth Laidir

aidanodr wrote: »

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1179079604784500736

Thoughts on this? 2 for the price of 1

What's been maintaining Lorenzo's strength today is that upper poleward outflow due to the trough to the northwest. It's causing upper divergence which is keeping surface pressure lower than it otherwise would be.

Lorenzo passed over the 26 °C SST isotherm this afternoon, with a fall of about 2 degrees per 6 hours of track over the next couple of days. This should accelerate weakening from about now.

Gaoth Laidir

Amazing to still see such a difference in tracks between the 3 TAB models, which compute the steering flow through different depths of the atmosphere (Shallow, Medium and Deep).

The deep (TABD) shows the effect of the upper steering flow from that Atlantic trough, whereas the shallow (TABS) brings it down through the Mediterranean and the medium through the English Channel.

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z came back a bit again on the max wind speeds. Windy in coastal counties during Thurs and becoming increasingly so from the evening . Strongest winds from about 20.00 -21.00 onward I would think .

Seeing Galway, Clare, Mayo, and Kerry as the windiest areas gusting up around 120 km/h, highest in coastal areas . Galway and Mayo looking the windiest atm with possibly 130 km/h gusts or there about in exposed coastal areas. Inland gusting generally up to 90 km/h, possibly 100km/h on higher ground.

Relatively slow moving as it turns in over the country, going to be a long 12 hrs or so of strong winds along Atlantic coasts.

Meteorite58

Storm Lorenzo filling as it crosses the country. Still time for changes of course, still a long way off.

Meteorite58

ICON EU almost carbon copy track and very close in pressure readings. Showing stronger winds on coasts getting up around 130km/h in Galway possibly higher in exposed coastal areas. ICON good model in the close range, sometimes wind speeds overcooked a bit.

Meteorite58

WRF -NMM 12Z Keeping strongest winds more in the W.

Meteorite58

ARPEGE 12Z again strongest winds in the W / NW . Track crossing the country a bit further N

JanuarySnowstor

It seems we have clear agreement now on landfall close to Sligo coast. My view on warnings are as follows,
Red for Galway, Mayo,Sligo & Done gal
Orange for counties bordering these four
Yellow for rest of country such as Dublin, Limerick and Cork.
A bit like Ophelia very severe for the red areas as above (though Ophelia was the south) and standard blustery day for yellow warning areas.
Rainfall doesn't look an issue to me at all