Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Options
1…3334363839…339

Comments

  • Options
    #1052
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    stinger31, we expect a reasonable standard of posting here in A & P. That's not it.

    Do not reply to this post.


  • Options
    #1053
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    stinger31 wrote: »
    Defo a great time to buy.......hahaha and while you're at it.....bid way over the asking too..... and if you're job is even in the slightest of risk.....buy buy buy

    "Coronavirus plunges Europe’s leading economies into historic recessions"


    I guess what you are saying is that of course property will fall.

    The main thing keeping property up at the moment is the massive liquidity being pumped into the economy by central banks. This has never happened before on such a scale.

    I would not buy myself at this time as I believe prices will fall 20% in the next year, even with this liquidity.


  • Options
    #1054
    Taylor365
    Registered Users Posts: 2,994 ✭✭✭Taylor365


    Pelezico wrote: »
    I guess what you are saying is that of course property will fall.

    The main thing keeping property up at the moment is the massive liquidity being pumped into the economy by central banks. This has never happened before on such a scale.

    I would not buy myself at this time as I believe prices will fall 20% in the next year, even with this liquidity.
    BAM! A new challenger enters the ring!


    Whats the malarkey over the recent gov changes? A lot of vulture fund talk going on....


  • Options
    #1055
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Taylor365 wrote: »
    BAM! A new challenger enters the ring!


    Whats the malarkey over the recent gov changes? A lot of vulture fund talk going on....

    Hey...I am just giving my twopence worth. Who knows what the future brings?

    One thing is sure..property is not selling fast at present. Transactions on the database are down more than 60% on last year.

    Also, if you analyse individual.streets for comparison of sales prices, I reckon we are back at 2017 levels already.

    The autumn will tell a story when layoffs begin to accelerate.


  • Options
    #1056
    stinger31
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 72 ✭✭stinger31


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Hey...I am just giving my twopence worth. Who knows what the future brings?

    One thing is sure..property is not selling fast at present. Transactions on the database are down more than 60% on last year.

    Also, if you analyse individual.streets for comparison of sales prices, I reckon we are back at 2017 levels already.

    The autumn will tell a story when layoffs begin to accelerate.

    Don't you know not to question or provide evidence that contradicts what the property bulls believe?


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #1057
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Hey...I am just giving my twopence worth. Who knows what the future brings?

    One thing is sure..property is not selling fast at present. Transactions on the database are down more than 60% on last year.

    Also, if you analyse individual.streets for comparison of sales prices, I reckon we are back at 2017 levels already.

    The autumn will tell a story when layoffs begin to accelerate.

    Transactions are down.... Everyone was locked in their house (+/-) a 2 mile radius for weeks and estate agents/banks/solicitors were closed - you hardly thought transactions would rise?


  • Options
    #1058
    The Belly
    Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭The Belly


    JJJackal wrote: »
    Transactions are down.... Everyone was locked in their house (+/-) a 2 mile radius for weeks and estate agents/banks/solicitors were closed - you hardly thought transactions would rise?

    They will in the very short term as sales close and those with mortgage approval worry it will be pulled try and buy.

    After that the larger economic picture is going to have a negative effect on transactions, sale prices and rents.


  • Options
    #1059
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    The property rise/fall goes round and round:

    In favour of prices staying the same or rising:

    Decreased supply due to decreased building
    Saving up to 5 billion from 2 billion in same period last year - therefore more deposit money
    Government pumping billions into the economy
    First time buyers support increased by 10,000
    Expect enormous headline growth rates post pandemic (eg US GDP down 30% now. Expect headline growth rates post pandemic although. Note to get back to 100% after a 30% fall you need growth of >42%)

    In favour of prices falling:
    Recession
    Job losses
    Banks worried about lending
    People moving out of Dublin (could lead to falls in Dublin and price rises elsewhere though - but on average a fall)
    Businesses closing and never re-opening

    Happy to add others to fall and rise columns - over to ye?


  • Options
    #1060
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    JJJackal wrote: »
    Transactions are down.... Everyone was locked in their house (+/-) a 2 mile radius for weeks and estate agents/banks/solicitors were closed - you hardly thought transactions would rise?

    The autumn will provide more granularity on numbers of transactions. The precursor to a collapse is a dearth of transactions.

    With respect to the actual sales values, For a bog standard generic house in my general area, recent sales prices suggest to me that we are at 2017 prices.


  • Options
    #1061
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    The Belly wrote: »
    They will in the very short term as sales close and those with mortgage approval worry it will be pulled try and buy.

    After that the larger economic picture is going to have a negative effect on transactions, sale prices and rents.

    Year on year transactions wont rise. I would say this is a certainty.

    Month on Month they will - eg April May had to be down. You would expect alot of completed details to get over the line after May


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #1062
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    Pelezico wrote: »
    The autumn will provide more granularity on numbers of transactions. The precursor to a collapse is a dearth of transactions.

    With respect to the actual sales values, For a bog standard generic house in my general area, recent sales prices suggest to me that we are at 2017 prices.

    The precursor to collapse is a dearth of transactions when there is not a pandemic.

    A pandemic where you cannot go to view a house (and thus probably wont buy it) leading to a dearth of transactions is not the same - although a collapse could follow. However, I dont think a dearth of transactions during a pandemic is a harbinger of doom


  • Options
    #1063
    Cal4567
    Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭Cal4567


    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/home-truths-housing-ministers-copycat-policy-book-rejected-39414971.html


    'Home truths': Housing Minister's copycat policy book rejected

    A bit of light relief for the bank holiday weekend. (Not behind a paywall either).


  • Options
    #1064
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    JJJackal wrote: »
    The precursor to collapse is a dearth of transactions when there is not a pandemic.

    A pandemic where you cannot go to view a house (and thus probably wont buy it) leading to a dearth of transactions is not the same - although a collapse could follow. However, I dont think a dearth of transactions during a pandemic is a harbinger of doom

    I am agnostic about the reason for fall in transactions. To my mind, the market is the market.

    A fall in transactions is a signal that all is not well in the market.

    If there is no autumn bounce in transaction levels, I expect significant falls in prices for those who really want to sell.


  • Options
    #1065
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Pelezico wrote: »
    I am agnostic about the reason for fall in transactions. To my mind, the market is the market.

    A fall in transactions is a signal that all is not well in the market.

    If there is no autumn bounce in transaction levels, I expect significant falls in prices for those who really want to sell.

    If transactions will be 30-40% below 2019 levels (which i expect is reasonable), what does it tell for the price? does it mean significant fall? it doesn't say to much to me, without knowing the supply side, as there may be 30-40% lower supplies.


  • Options
    #1066
    The Belly
    Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭The Belly


    With the change in how people work and the downturn in tourism, a few things could come from it.

    Commercial zoning rezoned to residential providing more availability in city center to those who are working in the city bringing down purchase and rental prices.

    Current office developments redeveloped into apartments. This seems to be on the cards in London already.

    Developers switching from commercial city center focus to building residential and smaller commercial units outside the city as demand on the city center is reduced lowering building costs and lowering prices.

    Overall its a longer term outlook but it would bring down prices and would probably go in some way to ending the boom and bust cycle.


  • Options
    #1067
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    Is this a sign of things to come?

    Heading of an article in the indo today....

    "The property 'Ronaldo', the investor, and a debt growing by €3,272 a day"


  • Options
    #1068
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    Is this a sign of things to come?

    Heading of an article in the indo today....

    "The property 'Ronaldo', the investor, and a debt growing by €3,272 a day"

    Probably...developers, especially poorly capitalised ones, will struggle in the new normal.


  • Options
    #1069
    wassie
    Registered Users Posts: 3,263 ✭✭✭wassie


    The Belly wrote: »
    With the change in how people work and the downturn in tourism, a few things could come from it.

    Commercial zoning rezoned to residential providing more availability in city center to those who are working in the city bringing down purchase and rental prices.

    Current office developments redeveloped into apartments. This seems to be on the cards in London already.

    Developers switching from commercial city center focus to building residential and smaller commercial units outside the city as demand on the city center is reduced lowering building costs and lowering prices.

    Overall its a longer term outlook but it would bring down prices and would probably go in some way to ending the boom and bust cycle.

    I'm aware of two reasonable sized office developments in Dublin that are no longer proceeding. Developer in each instance is looking to obtain new planning approval for residential schemes. Whilst this may be indicative of what you say, my 2 examples is not representative of anything.

    Dublin commercial rents have been expensive for some while and I think Covid has definitely changed the landscape for mid-tier developers that don't have the capital resources like their larger counterparts.


  • Options
    #1070
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,492 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The Belly wrote:
    Current office developments redeveloped into apartments. This seems to be on the cards in London already.


    Having excess office developments may be a major positive for this country with a potential hard Brexit on the horizon

    Would hold off on any conversions in the short term


  • Options
    #1071
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    I don’t think the hoped for jobs dividend from a hard Brexit will materialise as those decisions have already been mostly made and they have mostly chosen locations in continental Europe already.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #1072
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,033 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Cyrus wrote: »
    Yeah I get that , but I didn’t think a tired semi d in rathfarnham would make that , even in Blackrock for example that looks overpriced and I’d assume Blackrock is more desirable . Maybe I’m wrong on that front .

    Calling either of those houses "a tired semi d" is stretching it.
    They are Stringer built, nearly 100 years old and have huge South facing gardens.
    That particular area is probably the most expensive in rathfarnham, alongside castleside and Woodside drive.


  • Options
    #1073
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,672 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    GreeBo wrote: »
    Calling either of those houses "a tired semi d" is stretching it.
    They are Stringer built, nearly 100 years old and have huge South facing gardens.
    That particular area is probably the most expensive in rathfarnham, alongside castleside and Woodside drive.

    If I was buying it I’d gut the place so that’s why I’m saying tired .


    I can see the benefits of the space etc I just didn’t think rathfarnham was as expensive as Blackrock for example, if that sells for close to that it is .


  • Options
    #1074
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,033 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Cyrus wrote: »
    If I was buying it I’d gut the place so that’s why I’m saying tired .


    I can see the benefits of the space etc I just didn’t think rathfarnham was as expensive as Blackrock for example, if that sells for close to that it is .
    I think the first one is pushing it, though it does have a very wide site and no neighbors on one side.
    I think the other it keenly priced at 995.

    Tbf you'd probably be gutting any house built more than 20 years ago, you'd have much more left with either of these two after the gutting. They don't build them like that anymore.


  • Options
    #1075
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,672 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    GreeBo wrote: »
    I think the first one is pushing it, though it does have a very wide site and no neighbors on one side.
    I think the other it keenly priced at 995.

    Tbf you'd probably be gutting any house built more than 20 years ago, you'd have much more left with either of these two after the gutting. They don't build them like that anymore.

    Yeah it was the 1.25m I was a bit surprised at ,

    And take your point probably in better shape than something built in the 90s


  • Options
    #1076
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,047 ✭✭✭combat14


    PropQueries wrote: »
    I don’t think the hoped for jobs dividend from a hard Brexit will materialise as those decisions have already been mostly made and they have mostly chosen locations in continental Europe already.

    exactly word has already got out that property and rents are way over priced here with serious bad value for money


  • Options
    #1077
    GreeBo
    Registered Users Posts: 27,033 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Cyrus wrote: »
    Yeah it was the 1.25m I was a bit surprised at ,

    And take your point probably in better shape than something built in the 90s
    A detached 4 bed a few doors down sold for 1.3 a year ago, so 1.25 is certainly ambitious!


  • Options
    #1078
    lalababa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,726 ✭✭✭lalababa


    Lookit!.....(as some of our sporting greats would say:)) We have a big demand for housing. We have a small stock. We have big build costs.
    We have a recession. We have vested interests, we have people with no interest. We have high rents. We have low mortgage rates.
    Lookit the houses aren't there for there to be much of a drop.
    And nearly nobody is in a rush to sell.
    I would fear that (now it hasn't inany way materialised yet) with a particular type of brexit we could get both a deeper recession AND increased demand from Brits/expats , remember there is a market of 70 million from over the pond.


  • Options
    #1079
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    JJJackal wrote: »
    The property rise/fall goes round and round:

    In favour of prices staying the same or rising:

    Decreased supply due to decreased building
    Saving up to 5 billion from 2 billion in same period last year - therefore more deposit money
    Government pumping billions into the economy
    First time buyers support increased by 10,000
    Expect enormous headline growth rates post pandemic (eg US GDP down 30% now. Expect headline growth rates post pandemic although. Note to get back to 100% after a 30% fall you need growth of >42%)

    In favour of prices falling:
    Recession
    Job losses
    Banks worried about lending
    People moving out of Dublin (could lead to falls in Dublin and price rises elsewhere though - but on average a fall)
    Businesses closing and never re-opening

    Happy to add others to fall and rise columns - over to ye?

    I'd add

    Emigration of non nationals to the list freeing up rentalsupply

    Airbnb stock in Dublin returning to long term rental market.

    Firesale properties by distressed businesses / landlords.


  • Options
    #1080
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    I'd add

    Emigration of non nationals to the list freeing up rentalsupply

    Airbnb stock in Dublin returning to long term rental market.

    Firesale properties by distressed businesses / landlords.

    Updated: (I disagree with the firesale in the short term anyway - potentially a longer term issue, if things dont improve)

    In favour of prices staying the same or rising:

    Low supply to start with
    Decreased supply due to decreased building
    Saving up to 5 billion from 2 billion in same period last year - therefore more deposit money
    Government pumping billions into the economy
    First time buyers support increased by 10,000
    Expect enormous headline growth rates post pandemic (eg US GDP down 30% now. Expect headline growth rates post pandemic although. Note to get back to 100% after a 30% fall you need growth of >42%)
    Irish people only going on staycations so Airbnb properties come back on the market for Airbnb (decreased hotel capacity due to COVID restrictions)
    New jobs post Brexit

    In favour of prices falling:
    Recession
    Job losses
    Banks worried about lending
    People moving out of Dublin (could lead to falls in Dublin and price rises elsewhere though - but on average a fall)
    Businesses closing and never re-opening
    Emigration of non nationals to the list freeing up rental supply
    Airbnb stock in Dublin returning to long term rental market
    Potential firesales in the future...
    Less new jobs than expected post Brexit


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #1081
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    JJJackal wrote: »
    Updated: (I disagree with the firesale in the short term anyway - potentially a longer term issue, if things dont improve)

    In favour of prices staying the same or rising:

    Low supply to start with
    Decreased supply due to decreased building
    Saving up to 5 billion from 2 billion in same period last year - therefore more deposit money
    Government pumping billions into the economy
    First time buyers support increased by 10,000
    Expect enormous headline growth rates post pandemic (eg US GDP down 30% now. Expect headline growth rates post pandemic although. Note to get back to 100% after a 30% fall you need growth of >42%)
    Irish people only going on staycations so Airbnb properties come back on the market for Airbnb (decreased hotel capacity due to COVID restrictions)
    New jobs post Brexit

    In favour of prices falling:
    Recession
    Job losses
    Banks worried about lending
    People moving out of Dublin (could lead to falls in Dublin and price rises elsewhere though - but on average a fall)
    Businesses closing and never re-opening
    Emigration of non nationals to the list freeing up rental supply
    Airbnb stock in Dublin returning to long term rental market
    Potential firesales in the future...
    Less new jobs than expected post Brexit

    I highlighted some of this, which likely will have reverse impact by next Summer/September.

    For medium term (1-5 years) another important aspect, is natural population growth. And change in demographics (currently big number of teenagers)


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement