stinger31 wrote: » Defo a great time to buy.......hahaha and while you're at it.....bid way over the asking too..... and if you're job is even in the slightest of risk.....buy buy buy "Coronavirus plunges Europe’s leading economies into historic recessions"
Pelezico wrote: » I guess what you are saying is that of course property will fall. The main thing keeping property up at the moment is the massive liquidity being pumped into the economy by central banks. This has never happened before on such a scale. I would not buy myself at this time as I believe prices will fall 20% in the next year, even with this liquidity.
Taylor365 wrote: » BAM! A new challenger enters the ring! Whats the malarkey over the recent gov changes? A lot of vulture fund talk going on....
Pelezico wrote: » Hey...I am just giving my twopence worth. Who knows what the future brings? One thing is sure..property is not selling fast at present. Transactions on the database are down more than 60% on last year. Also, if you analyse individual.streets for comparison of sales prices, I reckon we are back at 2017 levels already. The autumn will tell a story when layoffs begin to accelerate.
JJJackal wrote: » Transactions are down.... Everyone was locked in their house (+/-) a 2 mile radius for weeks and estate agents/banks/solicitors were closed - you hardly thought transactions would rise?
The Belly wrote: » They will in the very short term as sales close and those with mortgage approval worry it will be pulled try and buy. After that the larger economic picture is going to have a negative effect on transactions, sale prices and rents.
Pelezico wrote: » The autumn will provide more granularity on numbers of transactions. The precursor to a collapse is a dearth of transactions. With respect to the actual sales values, For a bog standard generic house in my general area, recent sales prices suggest to me that we are at 2017 prices.
JJJackal wrote: » The precursor to collapse is a dearth of transactions when there is not a pandemic. A pandemic where you cannot go to view a house (and thus probably wont buy it) leading to a dearth of transactions is not the same - although a collapse could follow. However, I dont think a dearth of transactions during a pandemic is a harbinger of doom
Pelezico wrote: » I am agnostic about the reason for fall in transactions. To my mind, the market is the market. A fall in transactions is a signal that all is not well in the market. If there is no autumn bounce in transaction levels, I expect significant falls in prices for those who really want to sell.
Iceman29 wrote: » Is this a sign of things to come? Heading of an article in the indo today.... "The property 'Ronaldo', the investor, and a debt growing by €3,272 a day"
The Belly wrote: » With the change in how people work and the downturn in tourism, a few things could come from it. Commercial zoning rezoned to residential providing more availability in city center to those who are working in the city bringing down purchase and rental prices. Current office developments redeveloped into apartments. This seems to be on the cards in London already. Developers switching from commercial city center focus to building residential and smaller commercial units outside the city as demand on the city center is reduced lowering building costs and lowering prices. Overall its a longer term outlook but it would bring down prices and would probably go in some way to ending the boom and bust cycle.
The Belly wrote: Current office developments redeveloped into apartments. This seems to be on the cards in London already.
Cyrus wrote: » Yeah I get that , but I didn’t think a tired semi d in rathfarnham would make that , even in Blackrock for example that looks overpriced and I’d assume Blackrock is more desirable . Maybe I’m wrong on that front .
GreeBo wrote: » Calling either of those houses "a tired semi d" is stretching it. They are Stringer built, nearly 100 years old and have huge South facing gardens. That particular area is probably the most expensive in rathfarnham, alongside castleside and Woodside drive.
Cyrus wrote: » If I was buying it I’d gut the place so that’s why I’m saying tired . I can see the benefits of the space etc I just didn’t think rathfarnham was as expensive as Blackrock for example, if that sells for close to that it is .
GreeBo wrote: » I think the first one is pushing it, though it does have a very wide site and no neighbors on one side. I think the other it keenly priced at 995. Tbf you'd probably be gutting any house built more than 20 years ago, you'd have much more left with either of these two after the gutting. They don't build them like that anymore.
PropQueries wrote: » I don’t think the hoped for jobs dividend from a hard Brexit will materialise as those decisions have already been mostly made and they have mostly chosen locations in continental Europe already.
Cyrus wrote: » Yeah it was the 1.25m I was a bit surprised at , And take your point probably in better shape than something built in the 90s
JJJackal wrote: » The property rise/fall goes round and round: In favour of prices staying the same or rising: Decreased supply due to decreased building Saving up to 5 billion from 2 billion in same period last year - therefore more deposit money Government pumping billions into the economy First time buyers support increased by 10,000 Expect enormous headline growth rates post pandemic (eg US GDP down 30% now. Expect headline growth rates post pandemic although. Note to get back to 100% after a 30% fall you need growth of >42%) In favour of prices falling: Recession Job losses Banks worried about lending People moving out of Dublin (could lead to falls in Dublin and price rises elsewhere though - but on average a fall) Businesses closing and never re-opening Happy to add others to fall and rise columns - over to ye?
mcsean2163 wrote: » I'd add Emigration of non nationals to the list freeing up rentalsupply Airbnb stock in Dublin returning to long term rental market. Firesale properties by distressed businesses / landlords.
JJJackal wrote: » Updated: (I disagree with the firesale in the short term anyway - potentially a longer term issue, if things dont improve) In favour of prices staying the same or rising: Low supply to start with Decreased supply due to decreased building Saving up to 5 billion from 2 billion in same period last year - therefore more deposit money Government pumping billions into the economyFirst time buyers support increased by 10,000 Expect enormous headline growth rates post pandemic (eg US GDP down 30% now. Expect headline growth rates post pandemic although. Note to get back to 100% after a 30% fall you need growth of >42%) Irish people only going on staycations so Airbnb properties come back on the market for Airbnb (decreased hotel capacity due to COVID restrictions) New jobs post Brexit In favour of prices falling: Recession Job losses Banks worried about lending People moving out of Dublin (could lead to falls in Dublin and price rises elsewhere though - but on average a fall) Businesses closing and never re-openingEmigration of non nationals to the list freeing up rental supply Airbnb stock in Dublin returning to long term rental market Potential firesales in the future... Less new jobs than expected post Brexit
Marius34 wrote: » For medium term (1-5 years) another important aspect, is natural population growth.
