Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Tenzor07 wrote: »

This is what happens when you leave your Triple 7 parked around for too long!! :eek:


https://twitter.com/greenpeacefr/status/1367770046701920257

Well done Greenpeace. There goes 20 people sacked for breach of airport security during a global pandemic.

The issue for us won't be on the American end, it'll be on the Irish end. NPHET have ruled out international travel until July at least.

Tenger wrote: »

If the European situation improves before July I can see a lotof pressure on our lot to lift restrictions. FF/FG don't want to be seen out of step with the EU.

This is the crux of it, life comes with risk - there has to be an acceptance to attempt to mitigate against. Once US/EU travel is open, Ireland won't remain an outlier by remaining closed, despite what NPHET may think. American's bring cash to our shores, Gov need it.

cson wrote: »

Anecdotally they wont be bringing it this year, the huge uncertainty with travel to Europe has pushed most folks I know to booking domestic vacations this year - it ties into what UA/DL/AA all said at the JPM Conference, domestic bookings are very strong in the US at the moment.

Side bar; I despair when I look at how its being handled for you all, there's a strong chance that I'll be vaccinated over here in the US before my 65+ high risk category Dad back home gets his one. I feel so sorry for everyone in Ireland right now, looks like a throwback to the suffering for sufferings sake that was the order of the day back in the 50s/60s. I hope its remembered in the next General Election.

I should point out, I don't expect anywhere near what we may have been use to in terms of US-Ireland tourism levels, I do anticipate recovery beginning at some sort of level from Q3 onward. Something like 70% of Tourism suffered last year in Ireland, a well-known hotelier in Kerry pointed out on an earnings basis he is dependent on high spending Americans. However small the recovery maybe they are needed, with the pace of American vaccination there will be no reasonable opposition that could be justified to remaining closed. I did read JetBlue were dealing, domestically of course, with unprecedented levels of demand for forward bookings. America's airlines have been well supported, I do believe they can confidently say the worst is behind them.

As with the latter, there's really nothing to add. The level of frustration in the public is something I've not seen before.

Jack1985 wrote: »

I should point out, I don't expect anywhere near what we may have been use to in terms of US-Ireland tourism levels, I do anticipate recovery beginning at some sort of level from Q3 onward. Something like 70% of Tourism suffered last year in Ireland, a well-known hotelier in Kerry pointed out on an earnings basis he is dependent on high spending Americans. However small the recovery maybe they are needed, with the pace of American vaccination there will be no reasonable opposition that could be justified to remaining closed. I did read JetBlue were dealing, domestically of course, with unprecedented levels of demand for forward bookings. America's airlines have been well supported, I do believe they can confidently say the worst is behind them.

I agree that Q3 will see some material return of transatlantic travel, JetBlue have actually started laying track on rolling out their BOS-LHR route this autumn, it was showing up in the LHR website departures list for a bit til they pulled it.

Aer Lingus should be pretty well placed to take advantage of an uptick, particularly if the AA agreement starts funneling US pax onto their aircraft.

MadYaker wrote: »

I guess you aren’t part of one of the hundreds of thousands of families over there who have buried a loved one. I’ll take our approach over theirs any day of the week.

You've just read what you wanted to read there mate. I was making the comment vis-a-vis vaccination approaches. The US are doing a phenomenal job on the rollout.

PommieBast wrote: »

Having just finished my third travel-related isolation with no-one checking up on me it does seem like gov't strategy is based around making people feel miserable rather than actually doing anything themselves to stop Covid.

With the numbers travelling this is ridiculous. Civil servants who actually run the nation have lots to answer for, but who am I kidding, accountable to no one.

Tenger wrote: »

Thats is true. But I was thinking that such a move would see an increase in transfers through Dublin to/from the US.

I read the new NPHET statement this morning. Very grim reading. But another example of "we're not all in this together"

If the European situation improves before July I can see a lotof pressure on our lot to lift restrictions. FF/FG don't want to be seen out of step with the EU.

Given that each country gets allocated vaccine proportional to its population the likelihood is that the majority of Europe will have similar rates of vaccination, thus allowing some coordination of restriction lifting/travel allowances

LiamaDelta wrote: »

Given that each country gets allocated vaccine proportional to its population the likelihood is that the majority of Europe will have similar rates of vaccination, thus allowing some coordination of restriction lifting/travel allowances

I think that you will find that Ms von der leyen's home country has a side deal going and will have more shots available than just their 'EU allocation'

EDIT :

Deleted User wrote: »

Easily disproved: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html
....

Are these reports incorrect ?
https://www.euractiv.com/section/coronavirus/news/commission-takes-evasive-action-over-germanys-vaccine-side-deal/
https://euobserver.com/coronavirus/150554

Fairly bleak piece here on the prospects for the summer with the situation around Europe at the moment - both cases and vaccinations. Seems like a write off for summer 2.0 is on the cards for Europe. Will be hard if the UK and US is roaring ahead thanks to vaccines.

https://skift.com/2021/03/20/european-tourisms-summer-threatened-by-new-setbacks-and-shutdowns/

MadYaker wrote: »

I guess you aren’t part of one of the hundreds of thousands of families over there who have buried a loved one. I’ll take our approach over theirs any day of the week.

No offence, but it’s been nearly two years since I have seen my family.

In that period I have lost close family in Ireland and not been able to be home.

I WILL travel once the boarder restrictions are lifted in the US.

I will also have a vaccine before hand, I will continue to keep my distance from people, if I have to isolate in Ireland so be it.

Saying stupid things like this when there are many people like myself, who through no fault of their own have isolated, kept to all the rules and looked after everyone around then is ridiculous..

Aer Lingus is on its knees, American carriers are recovering thanks to vaccinations and people NEED to see family. Ireland needs to start getting vaccines through quicker. Instead of holding the country to ransom, NPHET should be taking a more pro-active approach with government and the HSE to source vaccine and not just wait for EU to dole it out.

Nijmegen wrote: »

Fairly bleak piece here on the prospects for the summer with the situation around Europe at the moment - both cases and vaccinations. Seems like a write off for summer 2.0 is on the cards for Europe. Will be hard if the UK and US is roaring ahead thanks to vaccines.

https://skift.com/2021/03/20/european-tourisms-summer-threatened-by-new-setbacks-and-shutdowns/

That seems overly pessimistic when countries like Greece and Portugal are already announcing they'll be open for tourists. Portugal from as early as Mid-May:



(from the Financial Times a few days ago)

I can't imagine the other heavily tourism dependent economies of Greece, Croatia, Spain and Italy will be far behind. And if last summer showed us anything its that if countries are open to tourists then a large number will go - regardless of restrictions at home.

IngazZagni wrote: »

Last summer we didn't have large fines for non essential travel. In fact you were allowed to travel to green list Countries last summer with no pcr test or quarantine requirements. Very different scenario now with mandatory PCR tests most likely remaining in place for some time.
Again I'm just being realistic but the biggest issue is the rules here in Ireland, not those in Spain or Greece.

Imagine getting a positive test in Spain just before you are due to travel home. You'll end up being stuck for 2 weeks before being allowed to travel home.

I would imagine that Travel Insurance will be difficult to get that will cove4 this scenario as well

basill wrote: »

Just "imagine" getting on with life and weighing up all the risks that stepping outside of the front door each day entails.

Wouldn’t fancy getting stuck in Spain as a family of 4 looking for the cash to pay for an extra 2 weeks accommodation. Never mind the cost of RE-arranging flights (especially if they are Ryanair). That’s serious cash reserves needed to be found in a hurry.

IngazZagni wrote: »

Last summer we didn't have large fines for non essential travel. In fact you were allowed to travel to green list Countries last summer with no pcr test or quarantine requirements. Very different scenario now with mandatory PCR tests most likely remaining in place for some time.
Again I'm just being realistic but the biggest issue is the rules here in Ireland, not those in Spain or Greece.

Imagine getting a positive test in Spain just before you are due to travel home. You'll end up being stuck for 2 weeks before being allowed to travel home.

You're still perfectly legally entitled to travel now for a large number of reasons - a funeral, a wedding, a medical appointment, visiting a grave, taking care of a sick person etc. Theres absolutely no problem with the gardai at Dublin airport as long as you claim one of these, and most of them are completely un-provable. Thats not a barrier to travel for anyone who wants to who has any common sense.

Portugal starting May 17th (edit: and Greece, from May 14th) have already said evidence of recovery from covid (which almost 250k Irish people have done), or a vaccination (which 650k Irish people have had as of today) will mean theres no need for an outgoing PCR test. Thats a good percentage of Ireland's 3.5million adults already covered, and obviously rapidly expanding as the vaccination program ramps up.

If the EU adopts Portugal and Greece's rules (which is highly likely given its not just them pushing for them, its every tourism dependent country) for all internal travel, as is heavily rumoured currently, then Ireland will be forced to adopt them too. So by peak summer season the vast majority of the Irish population won't need negative PCR tests to return from EU destinations either.

Blut2 wrote: »

You're still perfectly legally entitled to travel now for a large number of reasons - a funeral, a wedding, a medical appointment, visiting a grave, taking care of a sick person etc. Theres absolutely no problem with the gardai at Dublin airport as long as you claim one of these, and most of them are completely un-provable. Thats not a barrier to travel for anyone who wants to who has any common sense.

Portugal starting May 17th (edit: and Greece, from May 14th) have already said evidence of recovery from covid (which almost 250k Irish people have done), or a vaccination (which 650k Irish people have had as of today) will mean theres no need for an outgoing PCR test. Thats a good percentage of Ireland's 3.5million adults already covered, and obviously rapidly expanding as the vaccination program ramps up.

If the EU adopts Portugal and Greece's rules (which is highly likely given its not just them pushing for them, its every tourism dependent country) for all internal travel, as is heavily rumoured currently, then Ireland will be forced to adopt them too. So by peak summer season the vast majority of the Irish population won't need negative PCR tests to return from EU destinations either.

All valid but the vaccine numbers are wrong, 650 doses have been given, you need to be fully vaccinated, that’s only 175,000 but by summer should be a hell of a lot more.

European airline shares falling in particular after the weekend of UK ministers pointing out that surges outside the UK will lead to continued travel restrictions.

IAG fell as much as 16%, the most since March 16, 2020, when lockdowns went into effect across the world, and was down 4.5% at 10:14 a.m. in London. Ryanair Holdings Plc dropped as much as 7.4% while EasyJet Plc slid as much as 10%.

“Airlines and travel operators had seemingly refused to countenance the cataclysmic idea of another heavily disrupted summer and had been busily advertising to an increasingly inoculated U.K. population,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. “The travel sector is waking up on Monday to a dose of reality.”

.......

The latest measures -- along with confusion over testing and quarantines, and the fact that young people are still to be vaccinated -- mean that “most of the expectations of summer are implausible and imponderable,” Citigroup analysts led by Mark Manduca wrote in a note to clients Monday. “Summer in our view will be anything but normal.”

Not great now.

gral6 wrote: »

It’s only a matter of time before mandatory quarantine for all countries will be made permanent regardless of vaccines.

Varadkar is trying to blame variants that the cases will never go below 500 a day.
Also he says“ a lot more countries will be added to the quarantine list”.

It is very sad. There is no end of the tunnel for Irish aviation and ordinary people who want to travel. Thanks god, we still have Belfast airport

That seems extremely unlikely. The EU today voted to fast-track the corona virus travel pass to be in place by June:

https://www.politico.eu/article/meps-vote-to-fast-track-digital-green-certificates/

Its going to have the same rules as Greece / Portugal's mentioned above - any of a negative test within the last 72 hours, evidence of recovery from corona, or a vaccination, to travel. And will allow travel within the EU.

edit: and Fine Gael and Fianna Fail's MEPs both voted in favour of it, just for some additional context.

On top of that we're highly unlikely to apply mandatory quarantine to Americans arriving (we were one of the few countries in the EU to never prevent them from arriving at any point during corona) for business reasons. And we can't prevent arrivals from the UK for political/legal reasons.

So at the very least we're likely to have easy travel between Ireland and the EU/US/UK this summer. Further afield is unlikely/potentially subject to mandatory quarantine yes, but its not like we've ever had many direct flights elsewhere to begin with.

Inquitus wrote: »

We are still banned from US travel, with our vaccination rates and the worry about variants I don't think that will change in a hurry. Good news about EU travel however.

Anyone can still fly US->Ireland no problem currently though. And from Ireland to the US no problem if they have a US passport.

Rumours are the entry ban as it applies to Ireland is due to be lifted in mid-May supposedly anyway. We're going to get lucky in that we're lumped in with the UK (and their much much more positive numbers) rather than Schengen because of our being in the CTA and not Schengen.

60,000 people cross the NI border back and forth every day. PCR testing them constantly would be extremely problematic logistically, ruinously expensive and politically extremely hard to sell to the Catholic community up North and our border communities. And even if by some miracle you made it happen it then wouldn't guarantee to keep any new variants out - with a border as porous as that, with daily movement back and forth, PCR testing wouldn't catch everything.

Covid19 is never going away, variants are going to evolve on a regular basis now, just like with the 'normal' flu. All we can do is vaccinate the most at risk as best we can, give them 6 monthly/yearly boosters targeted at new strains like with the flu, and then accept that new reality and go back to normal life.

Blut2 wrote: »

Covid19 is never going away, variants are going to evolve on a regular basis now, just like with the 'normal' flu. All we can do is vaccinate the most at risk as best we can, give them 6 monthly/yearly boosters targeted at new strains like with the flu, and then accept that new reality and go back to normal life.

This is the most sensible thing I've read in the entire Coronavirus forum this weekend and it's also the blunt reality. The problem is that a very dangerous animal, much more dangerous than the virus, has been spawned by the propaganda machine and fed by non stop hysteria, hyperbole and irrational fear.

How to now convince Govts and terrified populations, especially our own, that it's high time to actually start living with Covid! Before infrastructure that took decades to build, such as Irish aviation, collapse completely.