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National: Cold spell Charts/ Media/ Forecasts (Strictly no chit-chat) (15/12/2010)

  • 14-12-2010 5:11pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭


    Please keep chic-chat to the other thread.


    ecmwind.096.png

    look at that beauty! bone chilling upper atmosphere wind straight from the arctic freezer! we are talking polar low territory and active troughs crossing down over us!

    feel free to edit this mods as you see fit.


«134567

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    latest GFS extending lifetime of the upcoming cold spell into christmas.

    Snow risk remains for anywhere in Ireland from Thursday into Tuesday


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    T+186 on the latest GFS has a potent low over the south of ireland moving up and away to our east on wednesday next, Fantasy island i know but that would surely fall as sleet/snow given the temp charts for the same timeframe? Precip looks very heavy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    uksnowdepth.png

    personally i think this chart maybe slightly conservative. i think parts of Ulster could have 4-6 inches of lying snow by Saturday afternoon.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    If im not asking a stupid question, what do the different colours mean in that 1st chart?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    wind speed snaps


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    snaps wrote: »
    If im not asking a stupid question, what do the different colours mean in that 1st chart?

    I may be wrong but I think speeds ?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    WRT Friday - there is an increasing risk of more significant snowfall across the country during the day. Looks like a frontal trough may move through. On the down side the mild sector will be close to the South coast so things look sleety there. But could be appreciable snow elsewhere. Have to be watched.

    78_30.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,268 ✭✭✭irishmotorist


    snaps wrote: »
    If im not asking a stupid question, what do the different colours mean in that 1st chart?

    I'm still trying to figure out the general themes of the charts, but usually there's a legend of some description on the charts. In this one, the title at the top of the chart is "Wind speed/direction" at 850hpa (not sure myself yet what this bit means) and the side has the colour coding.

    I've seen a good few references to 850hpa in the threads here over the last while. It sounds like it's a pressure, but is it related to altitude or anything?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    I'm still trying to figure out the general themes of the charts, but usually there's a legend of some description on the charts. In this one, the title at the top of the chart is "Wind speed/direction" at 850hpa (not sure myself yet what this bit means) and the side has the colour coding.

    I've seen a good few references to 850hpa in the threads here over the last while. It sounds like it's a pressure, but is it related to altitude or anything?

    Ye its relative to 1 mile or so above the surface.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭whiteandlight


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Ye its relative to 1 mile or so above the surface.

    Thanks. Ive wOndered that too. It'll be my new thing learnt today!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,268 ✭✭✭irishmotorist


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Ye its relative to 1 mile or so above the surface.

    Without wanting a training session in all this (as I plan to get some books and learn a bit more myself), is there a law or rule of thumb that says how this relates to ground level? If this is a 2 semester answer, I can go digging myself rather than bogging here down...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9 eoinbergin


    Hey guys last week i had a link to a great wind model which showed the progression over a couple of days and i cant seem to find it. I looked through the helpful links section but to no avail. Does anyone here have a good links that are not in the thread on links thanks


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    eoinbergin wrote: »
    Hey guys last week i had a link to a great wind model which showed the progression over a couple of days and i cant seem to find it. I looked through the helpful links section but to no avail. Does anyone here have a good links that are not in the thread on links thanks
    http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=1&res=750&type=wind&starttime

    http://www.xcweather.co.uk/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    brack3.gif

    a chart to savour!

    the 510 dam line that close by is incredible!!

    we could have a prolonged spell of snow moving down across the country based on this chart. i also think unexpected features could well pop up over the weekend. so i feel it's reasonable to say most places in Ireland will have seen at least a bit of snow by Sunday! well i don't want to jinx things but we are getting into reliable timeframe now!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,904 ✭✭✭cian1500ww


    I asked this in the other thread but I think it got lost in all the posts, how is this shaping up in comparison to the event that we had around this time last year?? I remember seeing the heaviest snow of my life exactly one year ago this coming Sunday.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    Just take a look above Iceland it has just came into view looks impressive.

    http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=eu&sat=ir&type=loop


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,925 ✭✭✭th3 s1aught3r


    hotwhiskey wrote: »
    Just take a look above Iceland it has just came into view looks impressive.

    http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=eu&sat=ir&type=loop

    Is that the Greenland express?
    I assume its going to come down and push that Atlantic front out of the way?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Brenireland


    hotwhiskey wrote: »
    Just take a look above Iceland it has just came into view looks impressive.

    http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=eu&sat=ir&type=loop

    Cheers for that looking good,moving fairly lively.... early tomorrow evening one would imagine we may see the floodgates open?...


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Friday looking great for the whole country bar the south west where it could be marginal with Dew points hovering around zero but still probably ok.

    10121718_1412.gif

    10121718_1412.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Friday looking great for the whole country bar the south west where it could be marginal with Dew points hovering around zero but still probably ok.

    10121718_1412.gif

    10121718_1412.gif

    :)

    prectypeuktopo.png


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,762 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    When it says say 2-4mm of snow, am I correct in thinking that translates into a few inches as its describing the depth as if it fell as rain?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    ECM0-72.GIF?14-0


    ECM going for a heavy period of snowfall across the country on Friday similar to the GFS. You can make out the warm sector off the South coast - spot on like the GFS.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,152 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Inquitus wrote: »
    When it says say 2-4mm of snow, am I correct in thinking that translates into a few inches as its describing the depth as if it fell as rain?

    1mm is approx. = 1cm of snow.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 373 ✭✭qwert2


    I don't mean to be a snow kill joy, but I think we're in for a lot of cold weather and maybe not too much snow? I could be wrong. Does anyone think we're talking 1982 levels here?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    qwert2 wrote: »
    I don't mean to be a snow kill joy, but I think we're in for a lot of cold weather and maybe not too much snow? I could be wrong. Does anyone think we're talking 1982 levels here?

    No, in a word:)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Netweather will go into meltdown after the ECM 96hr chart!

    Shows snowstorm over London!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Looking at the speed of the Greenland Express is it due to hit the country a little early ???

    image.ashx?country=eu&type=slide&time=&index=2&sat=ir


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    qwert2 wrote: »
    I don't mean to be a snow kill joy, but I think we're in for a lot of cold weather and maybe not too much snow? I could be wrong. Does anyone think we're talking 1982 levels here?

    I hear this thrown around quite a bit, more so in the last few days. 1982 was an extreme event in ireland while it's possible (likely?) that something like that will happen again i don't think it will be this weekend. But then again i don't really know what i'm talking about as i'm only 22 so wasn't around and only have basic weather knowledge :pac:


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Netweather will go into meltdown after the ECM 96hr chart!

    Shows snowstorm over London!

    Not only London - the (occluded probrably) front trails back over Ireland. And that after a prolonged period of snow on Friday.

    ECM1-96.GIF?14-0


    And more troughing from the South on Sunday

    ECM0-120.GIF?14-0


    That's 3 days of potential more prolonged snowfall. Interesting.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 798 ✭✭✭maiden


    Whats are the lowest temps to expect?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    ECM 144hrs which is Monday


    ECM1-144.GIF?14-0

    ECM0-144.GIF?14-0


    Weathercheck must be having palpatations at this stage:D

    If that came off we would be looking at very low daytime maximum temperatures.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Where do you see the troughs darkman ?
    Also how do you know the occluded front is draped back over Ireland ?

    To me, albeit great charts, I wonder has the potential shifted East to UK leaving us drier after Friday


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Where do you see the troughs darkman ?



    Can't see the toughs but you can see the warm sector. It's the same on the GFS

    gfs-1-72.png?12

    And once you see a warm sector you have cold and warm fronts. Looks like the system is in early stages of developmment on Friday but the GFS has it beefy enough for more widesread snow then just showers.

    Also how do you know the occluded front is draped back over Ireland ?

    The chinks in the isobars - specifically over the north.

    To me, albeit great charts, I wonder has the potential shifted East to UK leaving us drier after Friday

    I think it's an upgrade on earlier ECM runs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭kstand


    I live in London with the Mrs and little lad. Shes' due to fly from Heathrow to Dublin on Sunday at lunchtime for the Christmas. What chances do ye give of that being able to happen based on these models?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    168hrs incoming from the Northwest.....more significant snow.


    ECM1-168.GIF?14-0

    ECM0-168.GIF?14-0



    OK I will stop now!:pac:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    darkman2 wrote: »



    OK I will stop now!:pac:

    Please don't !! :pac:

    Will be interesting to see what the GFS run says, they seem to be coming to agreement now


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Elmo5


    Met Eireann have issued a warning :D

    Weather Warning

    Issued at 14 December 2010 - 18:41
    Weather Advisory
    Weather Advisory for severe cold weather and snow over the coming days.

    Very cold wintry weather will develop across Ireland during Thursday, sweeping down from the north, and leaving a severe frost and ice on Thursday night. Through Friday and the weekend afternoon temperatures will be in the range zero to plus 3 C, with night time temperatures typically minus 3 to minus 8 C.
    Snow is expected to return. Through Thursday, Friday and Saturday this will be mainly in coastal counties of the north and west (although isolated snow showers could occur anywhere), with a more widespread mix of rain and snow following for Sunday and Monday. Roads will become icy each night wherever they are wet.

    Regular updates will follow.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Evelyn was very calm on the 6/1 forecast I thought, almost like she was restraining herself from letting out a big"Whaaaa Whooo"! :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Evelyn was very calm on the 6/1 forecast I thought, almost like she was restraining herself from letting out a big"Whaaaa Whooo"! :D

    Were you in hiding? Looks like we could have an interesting couple of days ahead on the west. Wouldn't have been right for you to miss it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Were you in hiding? Looks like we could have an interesting couple of days ahead on the west. Wouldn't have been right for you to miss it.

    I am not too confident that my part of the west will see much to be honest but giving the nature of the wind stream, other parts will do much better. I think the Mayo hills will absorb most of the energy from these snow showers before they reach here but who knows how it will all turn out in the end :)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    gme-1-54.png?12

    Wow

    What a chart...

    -12 to -14 uppers over the country with -16 just touching the northern coast.

    :cool:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    What you should of said Maq was

    Carlsberg.jpg

    CARLSBURG don't do winter charts but if the did the would look like this.:D

    gme-1-54.png?12

    Wow

    What a chart...

    -12 to -14 uppers over the country with -16 just touching the northern coast.

    :cool:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    I know it probably wont but assuming that -16 does end up over us, what sort of temperatures would we looking at?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Looking at maq's chart, - 20 uppers nearly in scotland and tunisia in africa entirely covered by sub zero uppers. . . The worlds going mad! -12 uppers in france. . . Wtf? armaggedon? :P :P :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    18z be rolling out in a few minutes, I'll keep an eye on my low next wednesday :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 82 ✭✭Vizual Pics


    101214_2100.jpg

    Nice image of the Greenland Express en-route, stopping off at Iceland and then next stop Donegal, Leitrim, Sligo, Mayo, Galway and down to WolfIre in Clare, Limerick, Kerry and everything east of the above..:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,421 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Looking at maq's chart, - 20 uppers nearly in scotland and tunisia in africa entirely covered by sub zero uppers. . . The worlds going mad! -12 uppers in france. . . Wtf? armaggedon? :P :P :pac:

    more like The Day After Tomorrow ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 82 ✭✭Vizual Pics


    Harps wrote: »
    I know it probably wont but assuming that -16 does end up over us, what sort of temperatures would we looking at?

    Usually in Ireland you add 10 to the 850temps to get the surface so -14 uppers would give approx -4 at ground level.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    Cant freakin wait from snow starved kerry.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Article by Fergal Tierney on Polar Low potential this weekend
    http://www.irishweatheronline.com/2010/12/polar-low-potential-for-ireland-this.html


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