Atlantic Storm Watch: Turning Unsettled with Gales

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2013 7:17pm #1

GFS may be on to something. Already there is consensus from the models for some extremely deep low pressure systems over the North Atlantic from this weekend towards next week. As a slice of PV moves south towards Iceland.

A extreme storm of sub 930mb is progged by most models south of Iceland Saturday.

If the model is correct the actual central pressure of the storm could be extremely impressive, potentially as low as 920mb.

gfs-0-96.png?12?12

However prior to this the GFS is keen to develop an intense storm ahead of the trough.

The storm develops on the right edge of an intense Jetstreak Friday and moves to the north of Ireland.

There is strong GEFS ensemble agreement for an intense storm in this region and at just T72hrs, it is certainly something to watch in the coming hours and days. It has the potential to be particularly severe if all ingredients came right.

gfs-0-72.png?12?12

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2013 7:21pm

Need to see an example of a bomb? Just look at what the ECM does with this storm in the Atlantic.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013012212/ECM1-72.GIF

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013012212/ECM1-96.GIF

Yes that's right, a 50!! 50hPa pressure fall in 24hours!! Absolutely incredible.

Meanwhile of concern to us is developed by the ECM at 72hrs but is absorbed by the T96hr frame as it races Northeastwards.

maquiladora · 22-01-2013 7:22pm

Posted this in the model thread earlier. Since there is a thread now I'll place it here.

12Z GFS winds up that low off the northwest on Friday to to 959mb.

An area of very tightly packed isobars.

Sustained hurricane force winds at sea.

Worth keeping an eye on, if that track shifted south the west/northwest would be in for some severe winds.

Then the next day the GFS produces another Atlantic low (not near Ireland) with pressure down to 925mb, which in itself if interesting because only a handful of north Atlantic storms on record have been below 930mb.

An extreme example from the 12Z GFS ensembles. Sub-910mb.

maquiladora · 22-01-2013 7:51pm

12Z ECM also develops the big Atlantic low, down to 926mb at 96 hours, almost exactly the same as the GFS.

Massive windfield spanning several hundred miles.

Nabber · 22-01-2013 10:13pm

From some of the charts i looked at yesterday, this has a relatively warm center surrounded by -4 to -8 uppers on all sides, the dept that some of those cold uppers are reaching south into the Atlantic is impressive.

The usual modification from the Atlantic being sapped somewhat by the Low temps in Eastern Canada constantly flowing out for the past 8-10 days?

How is this system so well organised, when most this winter have been multiple weak unorganised systems travelling from Canada/South GreenLand to W Ireland.

Sorry about the assumptions and questions. Just curios as to why now we should get this mega storm and have it bomb so fast (in the models, it has jet to happen

)

aboyro · 22-01-2013 10:14pm

just to give people an idea of what could happen from a swell point of view, here's a short clip from sligo yesterday when there was no low pressure as significant as what the gfs forecast's

Big Daddy Cool · 22-01-2013 10:42pm

Lads how much Rain do ye think will accompany this?

vizualpics · 22-01-2013 10:45pm

MT said lately that the system must reload for it to become even colder again, could this storm be the reload that we are looking for, surely this will take alot of energy and warmth from the atlantic? Could be an interesting week ahead watching this one develop and then seeing how the cold develops..

maquiladora · 22-01-2013 10:51pm

aboyro wrote: »

just to give people an idea of what could happen from a swell point of view, here's a short clip from sligo yesterday when there was no low pressure as significant as what the gfs forecast's

This is for Sunday. You could fit all of Ireland inside the area of sea with heights maxed out on this scale, and still have room to spare.

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2013 10:52pm

18z GFS reduced the risk from the initial system for Ireland.

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2013 10:57pm

The Atlantic Storm goes from 970mb to 935mb in 12 hours. Incredible.

I expect some shipping forecasts to use 'An extremely dangerous storm' type language when discussing this beast.

Daniel2590 · 22-01-2013 10:57pm

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

Lads how much Rain do ye think will accompany this?

I'd imagine that rain would be the least of our worries if this arrived :pac:

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2013 11:01pm

Look at that Monster near 925mb.

maquiladora · 22-01-2013 11:05pm

80 knot sustained winds. Almost the same windspeeds as a Cat 2 hurricane. 928mb, the type of pressure you'd see in a high end Cat 4 hurricane. Not too shabby for a non tropical Atlantic low eh?

18Z GFS has it tracking a bit closer to us too.

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2013 11:06pm

After peaking intensity at near 925mb, it is still a 935mb monster storm 24 hours later.

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2013 11:07pm

maquiladora wrote: »

80 knot sustained winds. Almost the same windspeeds as a Cat 2 hurricane. 928mb, the type of pressure you'd see in a high end Cat 4 hurricane. Not too shabby for a non tropical Atlantic low eh?

So just needs to track 500 miles further east yeah?

I think maybe we'll let the fish keep this one.

maquiladora · 22-01-2013 11:18pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

So just needs to track 500 miles further east yeah?

I think maybe we'll let the fish keep this one.

Well it's already about a 100 miles further east than the 12Z...

Poor NOGAPS cannot compute below 950mb on Meteociel. Resorts to Black Hole Mode.

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2013 11:23pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Well it's already about a 100 miles further east than the 12Z...

Poor NOGAPS cannot compute below 950mb on Meteociel. Resorts to Black Hole Mode.

Well NOGAPS has it even further east for whatever it is worth!

Now note that NOGAPS doesn't go lower than 950mb on its charts, but you can make out it is quite alot deeper.

SNAP

aboyro · 22-01-2013 11:37pm

anyone considering the "What if's"?????? it more than likely a potential cold killer across europe, but "what if" it undercut us???????

Oh Lord!!!!!!!!:eek:

maquiladora · 22-01-2013 11:43pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Well NOGAPS has it even further east for whatever it is worth!

Now note that NOGAPS doesn't go lower than 950mb on its charts, but you can make out it is quite alot deeper.

Found it. NOGAPS deepens it to 928mb here. But if that was a hi-res chart I'm sure it would be even deeper.

An estimated chart for the Night Of The Big Wind that I posted in the FI thread yesterday, just for fun. :P

chart+3.jpg

Smidge · 22-01-2013 11:43pm

Maq, do you reckon any of that will make landfall over Ireland?
If so, what impact could it have for us?

eastmayo · 22-01-2013 11:52pm

Well with the cold comeing to an end...least we have these deep lows to keep us all interested...ya cant beat the weather.

maquiladora · 23-01-2013 12:07am

Smidge wrote: »

Maq, do you reckon any of that will make landfall over Ireland?
If so, what impact could it have for us?

All depends on the track and intensity, it's just too early to know that yet. The chances are we'll just end up with a lot of rain and some wind. Interesting one to watch regardless of the track it ends up taking though. I've never seen an extratropical cyclone on the models with pressure as low as some of the model runs are showing, only on historical charts. It could be the most intense Atlantic low in 20 years regardless of any impact here or anywhere else.

Smidge · 23-01-2013 12:14am

maquiladora wrote: »

All depends on the track and intensity, it's just too early to know that yet. The chances are we'll just end up with a lot of rain and some wind. Interesting one to watch regardless of the track it ends up taking though. I've never seen an extratropical cyclone on the models with pressure as low as some of the model runs are showing, only on historical charts. It could be the most intense Atlantic low in 20 years regardless of any impact here or anywhere else.

The charts are pretty amazing to look at, even to amateur eyes.
Does the black hole mean they can't chart it any further?

Harps · 23-01-2013 12:14am

Not too clued up on mid-Atlantic time zones and darkness time but if I'm reading it right it looks like its going to bomb overnight which is a shame, would be a great one to track on satellite

It'll definitely affect us one way or another but the extreme hurricane force winds are going to be well out in the Atlantic, it does push a fairly active looking front over us though which combined with another one on Friday could cause some flooding issues

Its the sort of setup where a storm can suddenly show up on the models 3 or 4 days out (as happened with the 12Z GFS) so it'll hopefully be an interesting few days ahead and not just the standard wind and rain on tonight's runs

maquiladora · 23-01-2013 12:18am

Smidge wrote: »

The charts are pretty amazing to look at, even to amateur eyes.
Does the black hole mean they can't chart it any further?

Yeah it just means that on that website they didn't set it up to show any output below 950mb for that model.

ninebeanrows · 23-01-2013 12:23am

A good % of GFS 18z Ensembles show the first depression hitting Ireland late Friday/Saturday do be a threat.

The morning will be interesting.

ninebeanrows · 23-01-2013 12:28am

Some mind blowing Ensembles

Yes sub 915mb

gens-15-1-90.png?18

How about a 925mb low heading east towards Ireland?

gens-13-1-102.png?18

ninebeanrows · 23-01-2013 12:32am

Outside chance of a record breaker with this one folks.

The Braer Storm in 1993 at 914mb being the marker for the lowest pressure of a extra-tropical Atlantic system

andrew · 23-01-2013 12:34am

This is firmly FI though right? Or is the fact that the models are showing these at all something of significance?

Steopo · 23-01-2013 12:38am

According to Met E the lowest ever recorded pressure was 931.2 in 1838 & the lowest northern hemisphere pressure was apparently 912mb so if those charts delivered it would be one serious storm. Whatever about wishing for a snow whiteout not sure I'd be willing this one to change track too much!

maquiladora · 23-01-2013 12:42am

18Z GFS. Unleash the beast. Thats sustained winds in knots. An area of hurricane force winds a couple of hundred miles wide there. On our 'doorstep'.

Brianmeath · 23-01-2013 12:48am

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS. Unleash the beast. Thats sustained winds in knots. An area of hurricane force winds a couple of hundred miles wide there. On our 'doorstep'.

What sort of wind speeds would we be talking? I'm on my phone so can't really make out the charts.
Thanks.

maquiladora · 23-01-2013 12:54am

andrew wrote: »

This is firmly FI though right? Or is the fact that the models are showing these at all something of significance?

The 'smaller' storm shown for Friday is FI because it's shown on one model then gone on the next etc. This bigger Atlantic low is much more likely to happen, but what remains unknown is just how strong it will be and where it's track will take it.

maquiladora · 23-01-2013 12:58am

Brianmeath wrote: »

What sort of wind speeds would we be talking? I'm on my phone so can't really make out the charts.
Thanks.

About 150 km/h sustained winds. Gusts over 200 km/h. That would be all out at sea though, don't worry. :pac:

Min · 23-01-2013 12:58am

Well I agree with Weathercheck, the fish can have this one.

I like my electricity and roofs on sheds...

In the perfect storm situation, this would be devastating for the country.

Brianmeath · 23-01-2013 1:01am

maquiladora wrote: »

About 150 km/h sustained winds. Gusts over 200 km/h. That would be all out at sea though, don't worry. :pac:

Thanks, the perfect storm comes to mind.
Lets hope this baby explodes well away from us,

maquiladora · 23-01-2013 1:21am

Chinese model.

Big Daddy Cool · 23-01-2013 8:58am

Daniel2590 wrote: »

I'd imagine that rain would be the least of our worries if this arrived :pac:

Well i just about got away with the House not flooding last weekend, i dont fancy another weekend of it. I like MT'S forecast this morning, 5-15mm of rain, do rightly.

ninebeanrows · 23-01-2013 9:26am

Most models/ensembles keep this storm out to sea.

But how about member 6??

gens-6-1-96.png?0

maquiladora · 23-01-2013 9:33am

0Z GFS brings it to 930mb. 0Z UKMO - 930mb. 0Z ECM - 928mb.

Pretty good agreement between the 3 main models now in terms of intensity. Still uncertainty about the track.

leahyl · 23-01-2013 9:47am

maquiladora wrote: »

0Z GFS brings it to 930mb. 0Z UKMO - 930mb. 0Z ECM - 928mb.

Pretty good agreement between the 3 main models now in terms of intensity. Still uncertainty about the track.

This is for Sunday morning Maq?

dopolahpec · 23-01-2013 10:02am

I've been watching this one keenly across all of the models on the Meteociel android app. This morning it appears to have pulled back from the apocalyptic intensity that was showing on the GFS ensembles yesterday evening. However, it is still showing as a possible major storm, for Ireland, on many models. In particular, the CMA (Chinese model) appears to be tracking this beast headlong against the west coast. This model has been performing well, and is being followed with interest by many of the posters on Netweather.

I actually thought it was funny that several GFS charts were being posted on Netweather showing this extraordinarily intense storm system in the Atlantic. Totally dominating the charts, and those discussing the charts were so snowblind it never raised a comment. 'oh look there's the possibility of a height rise in Greenland'...

To me it was like looking at a photograph and commenting on a mouse or something trivial in the foreground while the yeti or the loch ness monster grins in party hat in the background!!!!!

maquiladora · 23-01-2013 10:15am

leahyl wrote: »

This is for Sunday morning Maq?

Saturday/Sunday yeah.

FAX chart for 84 hours. 932mb.

fax84s.gif?22-0

maquiladora · 23-01-2013 11:03am

06Z GFS. 925mb.

weatherfiend · 23-01-2013 11:14am

dopolahpec wrote: »

I've been watching this one keenly across all of the models on the Meteociel android app. This morning it appears to have pulled back from the apocalyptic intensity that was showing on the GFS ensembles yesterday evening. However, it is still showing as a possible major storm, for Ireland, on many models. In particular, the CMA (Chinese model) appears to be tracking this beast headlong against the west coast. This model has been performing well, and is being followed with interest by many of the posters on Netweather.

I actually thought it was funny that several GFS charts were being posted on Netweather showing this extraordinarily intense storm system in the Atlantic. Totally dominating the charts, and those discussing the charts were so snowblind it never raised a comment. 'oh look there's the possibility of a height rise in Greenland'...

To me it was like looking at a photograph and commenting on a mouse or something trivial in the foreground while the yeti or the loch ness monster grins in party hat in the background!!!!!

To be fair maquiladora has been mentioning this for a number of days - certainly since Monday if memory serves me correctly

dopolahpec · 23-01-2013 11:28am

weatherfiend wrote: »

To be fair maquiladora has been mentioning this for a number of days - certainly since Monday if memory serves me correctly

And? To be fair I know he has, and I'm glad there is a thread dedicated to this. I don't understand what it is you are trying to say, unless you misconstrued my comment regarding Netweather as referring to this board.

power101 · 23-01-2013 11:38am

Its gotten to the point where this thread seems to be " Who can find the model with the lowest mb for the storm"... and i have to say ... I like it!

weatherfiend · 23-01-2013 11:38am

dopolahpec wrote: »

And? To be fair I know he has, and I'm glad there is a thread dedicated to this. I don't understand what it is you are trying to say, unless you misconstrued my comment regarding Netweather as referring to this board.

Perhaps I picked you up wrongly. What I understood from your post was that this upcoming event had been missed with all the hype about the snow (or lack thereof!) over the last couple of days. I know very little about charts etc - just enjoy the fun but I had picked up when maq mentioned that he had spotted this event coming.

red_bairn · 23-01-2013 11:38am

dopolahpec wrote: »

And? To be fair I know he has, and I'm glad there is a thread dedicated to this. I don't understand what it is you are trying to say, unless you misconstrued my comment regarding Netweather as referring to this board.

I understand the analogy

How long does it look for the high to set in place?

irish1967 · 23-01-2013 11:56am

99% of the time I look forward to the Atlantic throwing a storm this direction but this one looks EVIL ! For a worst case scenario for the NW where does this low have to go ? N S E or W ? I'll be watching this one closely

(Edit: 99.9%)

Atlantic Storm Watch: Turning Unsettled with Gales

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