Storm Imogen - Feb 07/08-Strong Winds/High Seas for Southern Areas

ninebeanrows · 06-02-2016 1:38pm #1

Storm Imogen is likely to be named in the next 24 hours as a deep Atlantic storm approaches from the Atlantic.

A secondary low pressure with a tight gradient will brush into northern parts of the country early Sunday giving localised gusts to 110km/hr in the north-west.

Then the focus move to 'Imogen' which will already be a mature storm in the Atlantic. This storm looks set to be severest in the south, although there is a little disagreement with regards to its exact track.

Parts of Munster will be impacted by inland gusts to 100-110km/hr with coastal fringes likely to see some gusts of 120-130km/hr.

The warning timeframe would begin circa 2100 Sunday through until 2100 Monday with the peak winds in the south from 0600-1200 Monday.

The extent of these strong winds could push further north in the next few model runs as a trend to pull the stronger winds further north has occurred in the last few model runs.

WRF forecast wind-speeds for 6am Monday

nmmuk-11-48-0.png?06-12

Graces7 · 06-02-2016 2:25pm

:rolleyes:

howlinwolf · 06-02-2016 2:30pm

met eireann not really picking up on the storm at the moment. Lots of windy weather mentioned over the next 48hrs but nothing unusual, getting up to gale force on exposed coasts but no mention of strong/severe gales. Time will tell if Imogen brings anything nasty our way.;)

Meteorite58 · 06-02-2016 5:32pm

12Z GFS

Clonmel1000 · 06-02-2016 5:35pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

met eireann not really picking up on the storm at the moment. Lots of windy weather mentioned over the next 48hrs but nothing unusual, getting up to gale force on exposed coasts but no mention of strong/severe gales. Time will tell if Imogen brings anything nasty our way.;)

Good!

Tactical · 06-02-2016 6:04pm

Fingers crossed, fingers crossed....

... for a little excitement

Will be watching this one with interest.

squarecircles · 06-02-2016 9:01pm

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Cork and Kerry
Westerly winds will reach mean speeds of 65 to 75 km/h with gusts of 100 to 120 km/h, strongest winds along the coast.

Issued:Saturday 06 February 2016 19:00
Valid:Monday 08 February 2016 02:00 to Monday 08 February 2016 09:00

Meteorite58 · 06-02-2016 9:29pm

12Z WRF more or less the same

Meteorite58 · 06-02-2016 9:47pm

Storm Imogen

O0fVwXd.gif?1

mickger844posts · 06-02-2016 9:52pm

I'm surprised Waterford is not included in the Orange Warning, just Yellow for now. Think this will have more of an impact for us down here than most of the other named storms this season mainly due to its more southerly track. Should be an interesting Monday morning

www.waterfordcityweather.com

chipsdave · 06-02-2016 10:51pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

met eireann not really picking up on the storm at the moment. Lots of windy weather mentioned over the next 48hrs but nothing unusual, getting up to gale force on exposed coasts but no mention of strong/severe gales. Time will tell if Imogen brings anything nasty our way.;)

Its not going to affect Dublin ... thats why theres NO talk about it ..

Jpmarn · 06-02-2016 10:53pm

Met Eireann has named the storm for Monday morning Immogen.

P.lane78 · 06-02-2016 10:55pm

chipsdave wrote: »

Its not going to affect Dublin ... thats why theres NO talk about it ..

They will be if it tracks north

ronnie3585 · 06-02-2016 11:13pm

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/A_sfc_full_ocean_color.png

When will this crap end:mad:

Hooter23 · 06-02-2016 11:22pm

So the exact track of the storm is still uncertain so if this storms track moves north it could also indicate even stronger winds than what is shown now as these storms tend to go more north when they are stronger one to watch could be bad enough if that happens...

JCX BXC · 06-02-2016 11:26pm

Not looking forward to driving Monday Morning :O (West Clare)

Mods: Can you update the thread title to Level 2?

P.lane78 · 06-02-2016 11:29pm

ronnie3585 wrote: »

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/A_sfc_full_ocean_color.png

When will this crap end:mad:

Maybe you could help me out ronnie3585, reading the chart as a complete newbie is that a load of wind events possibly heading our way

pushkii · 07-02-2016 6:30am

Just got woken up by belting rain there, nearly thought it was going to break my window, wind starting to murmur

JanuarySnowstor · 07-02-2016 7:57am

Well for Cork this is the big one
Could well upgrade to red by this afternoon.
Either way damaging winds with seas likely to overflow.

Graces7 · 07-02-2016 7:59am

You mean last night and now was not Imogen? Jeepers... What a night up here that was... And just seen met ie.. ay me... Whatever next.... Orange for Kerry of course... Back to storm routine; all coal buckets filled, almost the last of the wood and turf in ( eking it out now), candles ready... ah well; glad of the warnings. Maybe I should have open house for boardsies seeking drama....lol!

Graces7 · 07-02-2016 8:04am

Tactical wrote: »

Fingers crossed, fingers crossed....

... for a little excitement

Will be watching this one with interest.

Praying for calm seas and quiet nights.. South Kerry 400 asl and getting too old for all this...

munsterlegend · 07-02-2016 9:07am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well for Cork this is the big one
Could well upgrade to red by this afternoon.
Either way damaging winds with seas likely to overflow.

Has gone a little bit further north on the latest gfs run but most very strong winds by the coast.

corsav6 · 07-02-2016 9:21am

munsterlegend wrote: »

Has gone a little bit further north on the latest gfs run but most very strong winds by the coast.

Still looks like we might escape any severe wind here in Mayo.
It's been fairly windy since yesterday here anyway so hopefully we see some settled weather for a few days at least.

Graces7 · 07-02-2016 9:37am

ro

corsav6 wrote: »

Still looks like we might escape any severe wind here in Mayo.
It's been fairly windy since yesterday here anyway so hopefully we see some settled weather for a few days at least.

Everything crossed here; bitter cold already today..last night was very bad up here.. South Kerry mountains 400 asl..faintest scattering of snow atop the mountains here...off to fill hwbs and coal buckets

corsav6 · 07-02-2016 10:25am

Graces7 wrote: »

ro

Everything crossed here; bitter cold already today..last night was very bad up here.. South Kerry mountains 400 asl..faintest scattering of snow atop the mountains here...off to fill hwbs and coal buckets

How far from the coast are you graces?
We're 4 miles by road so I'd say maybe 2 miles as the crow flies. I think we're 250asl,if I remember what the GPS read.

NMB · 07-02-2016 10:50am

To echo what Carnacalla said a few days ago ....models tend to shift North. Definitely one more orange warning on the way and maybe a red for the poor South.

munsterlegend · 07-02-2016 10:55am

NMB wrote: »

To echo what Carnacalla said a few days ago ....models tend to shift North. Definitely one more orange warning on the way and maybe a red for the poor South.

Looking at latest gfs seems around the same..not much movement north if any. Need an expert to give their view

redsteveireland · 07-02-2016 11:24am

munsterlegend wrote: »

Looking at latest gfs seems around the same..not much movement north if any. Need an expert to give their view

I would agree with that too looking at the latest GFS anyway.

squarecircles · 07-02-2016 11:36am

Those severe winds are getting ever closer.

munsterlegend · 07-02-2016 11:43am

squarecircles wrote: »

Those severe winds are getting ever closer.

At the moment coastal areas most at risk from the very strong winds.

Oscar Bravo · 07-02-2016 12:20pm

1114 met eireann update

Rain will spread northwards across the country this afternoon/ evening, becoming heavy and persistent. The day will continue to turn more windy as south to southwesterly winds strengthen. Highest temperatures of 6 to 9 degrees.

Tonight

By early tonight the rain will have become more showery, with the showers continuing overnight. Very windy during the night with southwesterly winds reaching storm force across the south of the country. Lowest temperatures of 1 to 4 degrees.

Tomorrow

Cold, windy and showery tomorrow with highest temperatures of 6 or 7 degrees in strong westerly

Meteorite58 · 07-02-2016 12:42pm

I think the models are holding steady enough but did notice GFS going for some very strong winds around the Dingle Peninsula / Glenbeigh / Cahercieveen for early 04.00 that werent there till the last run and also that winds are a bit slower to abate and remain stronger till mid morning / early afternoon ( maybe wont hold that exact tract or intensity but looks like could well get winds of 130kph+ hitting the coast there for a short while in the early hours). I would think that Waterford and possibly Wexford may get included in the Orange warning. Kerry could be a boderline Orange / Red warning at this stage.

JCX BXC · 07-02-2016 12:46pm

An upgrade to a red warning would not be taken lightly by Met Eireann as it stops services etc School buses and other things.

Oscar Bravo · 07-02-2016 1:07pm

blowy enough out there today also, Malin head gusting 54 knots (100km/h)

Meteorite58 · 07-02-2016 1:11pm

Rain from the cold front associated with todays low making its way onshore here in Kerry, Imogen looks fairly intense and ready hot on its heels . Some very tight isobars .

E7WGObP.png?1

Aerohead · 07-02-2016 1:12pm

I'm confused, not a mention of Galway or Connacht in the weather advisory yet on their forecast the give a warning of storm force winds from Mizen head to Slyne head which take in Galway

Oscar Bravo · 07-02-2016 1:42pm

TAF from Shannon showing wind gusting to 57 knots from the west early tomorrow morning,Cork showing 58knots....gonna be wild enough....

JCX BXC · 07-02-2016 1:44pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

TAF from Shannon showing wind gusting to 57 knots from the west early tomorrow morning....gonna be wild enough....

Cork Showing 58kts, was showing 60kts earlier.

Oscar Bravo · 07-02-2016 1:46pm

Munster
07 February 2016- updated at 13:00
Today

Rain will spread throughout this afternoon becoming heavy in parts and persistent. South to southwest winds will become strong gusting gale. Highest temperatures of 8 to 10 degrees.

Tonight

Overnight showers will occur. Very windy with southwest winds gusting severe gale or even storm force especially across the south. Lowest temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees.

JCX BXC · 07-02-2016 1:50pm

Updated at 13:00? Hmm

Oscar Bravo · 07-02-2016 1:53pm

i would imagine they just rounded it off to 1300....

munsterlegend · 07-02-2016 1:55pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

i would imagine they just rounded it off to 1300....

They always have it at 1300 in the regional updates and the next one will be 18 00.

Oscar Bravo · 07-02-2016 1:55pm

correct

Oscar Bravo · 07-02-2016 1:56pm

Farming forecast coming up on RTE1 just after the news at 1pm

JCX BXC · 07-02-2016 2:11pm

RTE one news forecast included Tipperary in the yellow warning.

munsterlegend · 07-02-2016 2:14pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Farming forecast coming up on RTE1 just after the news at 1pm

Nothing too concerning in that forecast. Orange warning for cork and Kerry..no real change.

Graces7 · 07-02-2016 2:21pm

corsav6 wrote: »

How far from the coast are you graces?
We're 4 miles by road so I'd say maybe 2 miles as the crow flies. I think we're 250asl,if I remember what the GPS read.

Not sure. Nearest beach is at Templenoe, a very few miles as the crow flies. This small area is in fact an upland valley. As opposed to neighbouring Blackwater Valley .. hence thankfully no flooding.

Graces7 · 07-02-2016 2:25pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

An upgrade to a red warning would not be taken lightly by Met Eireann as it stops services etc School buses and other things.

As it should after the chaos of Darwin. Is it not the bus drivers who have stated their refusal to run if the warning is red? Wise men.

JCX BXC · 07-02-2016 2:28pm

Graces7 wrote: »

As it should after the chaos of Darwin. Is it not the bus drivers who have stated their refusal to run if the warning is red? Wise men.

Of course they should, but my point is Met Eireann will make sure the warning is well warranted before it's issued.

Graces7 · 07-02-2016 2:31pm

The air sweeping across the mountains is white. Looks like fog but then you realise it is moving in great white swathes of icy rain. Loud on windows and roof. Just brought one of the cats in; he was lurking round the sheltered gable end not wanting to brave the westerly at the front... Cannot blame him.. we faced the lashing together.....They are unsettled as always in bad weather.. The westerlies are the most likely to shift my digiweb dish which means all my communications will go so if it goes silent here, that is why. Hoping not. They take weeks to fix it. Bitter cold wind is that now. High drama ahead clearly.

Graces7 · 07-02-2016 2:33pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

Of course they should, but my point is Met Eireann will make sure the warning is well warranted before it's issued.

Even if borderline, best safe.

Storm Imogen - Feb 07/08-Strong Winds/High Seas for Southern Areas

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