Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

prinzeugen · 26-05-2019 2:49am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I put 20 quid on Rory Stewart.

Seems like the best of a truly awful bunch.the Tory's have to be looking at who can repair the party (and country) but mainly party. The rise of the Brexit party must be truly terrifying for the 1922 committee.

I agree. He has been on question time more than once and appears to be a very straight talking, no bull kind of guy. And while he is from the usual Conservative background, he went and did some great things. I think he is self taught in Russian and Chinese!

ancapailldorcha · 26-05-2019 9:01am

Deleted User wrote: »

I put 20 quid on Rory Stewart.

Seems like the best of a truly awful bunch.the Tory's have to be looking at who can repair the party (and country) but mainly party. The rise of the Brexit party must be truly terrifying for the 1922 committee.

I think Stewart is the best candidate of the bunch. Seems to be quite well travelled and educated.

The problem is that this choice will be made my Conservative party members who are likely to favour Johnson.

Tell me how · 26-05-2019 9:31am

Looking at the list of runners who are expected to contest the leadership of the Tory party really is very interesting.
I am struck by the self belief in some to even put themselves forward for consideration.

We know about Boris and his self-confidence so that isn't really surprising but some of the others.

Dominic Raab - was Brexit Secretary at time deal was negotiated and then admitted he was unaware of the significance of Dover-Calais.
Andrea Leadsome - Who even last week was unable to list countries trading under WTO rules
Esther McVey - who retweeted in March, a claim that the UK would be forced to join the Euro next year.

The fact that one of these could (but unlikely) end up taking the reigns of Breixt is astoundingly bizarre (which is also the case in Boris Johnson to be fair).

Zubeneschamali · 26-05-2019 10:24am

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think Stewart is the best candidate of the bunch. Seems to be quite well travelled and educated.

The problem is that this choice will be made my Conservative party members who are likely to favour Johnson.

I think Boris would win a ballot of members, but he has to be in the top 2 candidates in a ballot of MPs first.

May didn't need a members vote at all: Fox was eliminated after the first ballot of MPs, Crabb withdrew. Gove was eliminated after the second, and Leadsom withdrew, leaving the job to May.

ancapailldorcha · 26-05-2019 10:40am

Posts with insults deleted.

AllForIt · 26-05-2019 12:23pm

Gove has thrown his hat in the ring. I think he has a better chance against Johnson than either Stewart or Rabb somehow.

Capt'n Midnight · 26-05-2019 12:33pm

bilston wrote: »

The only way Johnson can be stopped is if the Tory MPs back someone like Dominic Rabb over him. They will be fighting for the same MPs.

Crazy how so few people (mostly people over the age of 60) will get to decide the future of the UK.

Grove has entered the ring.

With a bit of luck they will take each other out, like last time.

If it goes to the party to vote (£25 to join) expect promises about pensions and Brexit ?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48395211
MP's get to decide the final two to put to the older right-wing South England white male middle class voters who are against redistribution of wealth , for the death penalty and who believe the working class get a fair share of the nations wealth.

They are 5:1 against a second referendum.

They are why pensions in the UK have a triple lock.

The only silver lining for any other socio-economic group is that they aren't as gung-ho about govt spending cuts as they were in the past.

Flex · 26-05-2019 12:33pm

Esther McVey on Rigby earlier effectively saying to demand the EU remove the backstop or they’ll leave with no deal. When asked about the consequences for the border on Ireland simply but forcefully replied there won’t be one; the EU and Ireland don’t want to put one up, so there won’t be one. Alternative arrangements will be ready by 31.10.19 anyway, so it’ll be invisible.

Wasn’t asked what the arrangements were, how they’ll be ready by October 31st, why they haven’t been suggested already, and certainly wasn’t pulled up on the ‘Ireland and the EU don’t want a hard border, so why will there be one?’ crap, as usual

briany · 26-05-2019 12:44pm

AllForIt wrote: »

Gove has thrown his hat in the ring. I think he has a better chance against Johnson than either Stewart or Rabb somehow.

Gove's just more of the same. I don't think he'd really fancy the job at this stage, anyway. He just has to be seen to do so, almost, because he's a senior Conservative. There's also nothing exciting about the man. No concrete positions or principles. Comes off like the definition of a ladder-climbing politician. Who in the wider Conservative membership is going, "Oh, yeah, Gove! He'll sort it out. He'll unite us."?

I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories just kept on installing patsies until the chaos dies down. A woman, a Scotsman, and maybe if things get bad enough, perhaps even a dusky fellow.

Tell me how · 26-05-2019 12:59pm

briany wrote: »

Gove's just more of the same. I don't think he'd really fancy the job at this stage, anyway. He just has to be seen to do so, almost, because he's a senior Conservative. There's also nothing exciting about the man. No concrete positions or principles. Comes off like the definition of a ladder-climbing politician. Who in the wider Conservative membership is going, "Oh, yeah, Gove! He'll sort it out. He'll unite us."?

I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories just kept on installing patsies until the chaos dies down. A woman, a Scotsman, and maybe if things get bad enough, perhaps even a dusky fellow.

I don't think any party likes the idea of multiple leaders in a short space of time. It screams of a lack of direction and highlights that they are not in Government.

They went through William Hague, Ian Duncan Smyth and Michael Howard in 8 years while Tony Blair was a Labour PM after having 3 in the 32 years up to 1997.

Similarly, Labour have had 3 in the last 12 years, most of which has been spent under Conservative PM's.

briany · 26-05-2019 1:05pm

Tell me how wrote: »

I don't think any party likes the idea of multiple leaders in a short space of time. It screams of a lack of direction and highlights that they are not in Government.

I think the open in-fighting, crushed government motions, inconclusive indicative votes, confidence and supply deal with the DUP, and defectors have all highlighted this quite adequately. That there were few leaders in the span of the Brexit saga would end up being one of the footnotes at this stage.

20silkcut · 26-05-2019 1:26pm

Flex wrote: »

Esther McVey on Rigby earlier effectively saying to demand the EU remove the backstop or they’ll leave with no deal. When asked about the consequences for the border on Ireland simply but forcefully replied there won’t be one; the EU and Ireland don’t want to put one up, so there won’t be one. Alternative arrangements will be ready by 31.10.19 anyway, so it’ll be invisible.

Wasn’t asked what the arrangements were, how they’ll be ready by October 31st, why they haven’t been suggested already, and certainly wasn’t pulled up on the ‘Ireland and the EU don’t want a hard border, so why will there be one?’ crap, as usual

If you really grilled a devout religious person about their belief in God and the lack of any evidence to support his existence and the insurmountable evidence to the contrary you would probably come out worse in the eyes of those watching especially if they also believe.

Water John · 26-05-2019 2:31pm

Briany,what has someone's skin colour got to do with whose leader of the Conservative party?
If you are referring to Sajid Javid, use his name.

bilston · 26-05-2019 2:47pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Grove has entered the ring.

With a bit of luck they will take each other out, like last time.

If it goes to the party to vote (£25 to join) expect promises about pensions and Brexit ?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48395211
MP's get to decide the final two to put to the older right-wing South England white male middle class voters who are against redistribution of wealth , for the death penalty and who believe the working class get a fair share of the nations wealth.

They are 5:1 against a second referendum.

They are why pensions in the UK have a triple lock.

The only silver lining for any other socio-economic group is that they aren't as gung-ho about govt spending cuts as they were in the past.

In the current climate Gove is potentially the best the Tories can hope for. I'll rephrase that he is the best the UK can hope for, mainly because he is against a No Deal Brexit. Rory Stewart has a lot of good qualities but hasn't a hope of winning given he is a Remainer, likewise Matt Hancock who lets face no one has heard of.

Only a Brexiteer can win this and Gove is probably the least hard Brexit from that camp.

I'll say one thing about Boris Johnson, he will do anything to become PM and that includes being less than up front with the truth. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he backtracked on a no deal Brexit if push came to shove. I'm not even that certain he is really a Brexiteer. I suspect he has taken that angle just to become PM.

Mr.Nice Guy · 26-05-2019 2:56pm

I would agree Rory Stewart would be the most logical candidate for the Tories. I was impressed by him when I heard him debate with James O'Brien. I'm not sure the Tory membership are thinking in terms of logic at this moment though and everything seems to be rooted in emotive outbursts. I suspect they'll go for someone that will make them feel better about Brexit. Why go for a candidate that encourages talk of compromise - implying a weak hand - when you can go for a Boris or Raab whose supporters insist the EU are afraid of - implying a strong hand. It will go the way it did in 2016: emotion will win the day.

Sam Russell · 26-05-2019 3:03pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I would agree Rory Stewart would be the most logical candidate for the Tories. I was impressed by him when I heard him debate with James O'Brien. I'm not sure the Tory membership are thinking in terms of logic at this moment though and everything seems to be rooted in emotive outbursts. I suspect they'll go for someone that will make them feel better about Brexit. Why go for a candidate that encourages talk of compromise - implying a weak hand - when you can go for a Boris or Raab whose supporters insist the EU are afraid of - implying a strong hand. It will go the way it did in 2016: emotion will win the day.

How could anyone think that the EU are afraid of Raab. He was back and fro to Brussels, returning empty handed. He did not read that pivital Brexit document - the GFA - even though it only runs to 38 pages. As for Boris, he got a flea in his ear every time he travelled abroad as FS.

Surely neither has a real chance. They need the support of their friends, the Tory MPs before going to be endorsed by the geriatric party faithful. I think neither could get to the last two.

26-05-2019 3:31pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I put 20 quid on Rory Stewart.

Seems like the best of a truly awful bunch.the Tory's have to be looking at who can repair the party (and country) but mainly party. The rise of the Brexit party must be truly terrifying for the 1922 committee.

He did a good documentary on Afghanistan and I didn't realise it was the same guy as the MP til 2 years ago. :P It can be silly to focus on first impressions and the superficial but when I found out he was a Tory MP I was initially disappointed but then I read into him more and it tallied with the assumptions I had made from seeing him before. He seems to be the best of a bad bunch. I get the impression he would be willing to sacrifice his ambition to make the best of the current situation.

Mr.Nice Guy · 26-05-2019 3:44pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

How could anyone think that the EU are afraid of Raab. He was back and fro to Brussels, returning empty handed. He did not read that pivital Brexit document - the GFA - even though it only runs to 38 pages.

His supporters seem to be basing it on comments from the recent documentaries that were done on the negotiations.

https://twitter.com/ReadyForRaab/status/1132243859478581251

I think his fans are mistaking surprise at how a minister can be so ignorant with fear.

Christy42 · 26-05-2019 3:53pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

His supporters seem to be basing it on comments from the recent documentaries that were done on the negotiations.

https://twitter.com/ReadyForRaab/status/1132243859478581251

I think his fans are mistaking surprise at how a minister can be so ignorant with fear.

It really shows the failure of the UK mindset. Why should the UK make us fear anything? Should we not be working together in this instead of repeatedly forcing a hostile mindset into negotiations?

bilston · 26-05-2019 3:55pm

Deleted User wrote: »

He did a good documentary on Afghanistan and I didn't realise it was the same guy as the MP til 2 years ago. :P It can be silly to focus on first impressions and the superficial but when I found out he was a Tory MP I was initially disappointed but then I read into him more and it tallied with the assumptions I had made from seeing him before. He seems to be the best of a bad bunch. I get the impression he would be willing to sacrifice his ambition to make the best of the current situation.

He's definitely my preferred candidate (not that I have a say). But he has come at the wrong time. The Tory membership aren't interested in a progressive option, particularly a Remainer.

He might have had a chance 10-15 years ago when Cameron became leader, but those days are long gone for both major political parties in the UK.

Sam Russell · 26-05-2019 3:56pm

Christy42 wrote: »

It really shows the failure of the UK mindset. Why should the UK make us fear anything? Should we not be working together in this instead of repeatedly forcing a hostile mindset into negotiations?

The Brexiteers do not need to worry - they will be OK on WTO rules, just like all the other countries that operate solely on WTO rules.

[If only they could name them - any of them - if there are any!]

26-05-2019 3:57pm

bilston wrote: »

He's definitely my preferred candidate (not that I have a say). But he has come at the wrong time. The Tory membership aren't interested in a progressive option, particularly a Remainer.

He might have had a chance 10-15 years ago when Cameron became leader, but those days are long gone for both major political parties in the UK.

Could see him making top 2 from the parliamentary party which would almost be an even worse outcome.

Sam Russell · 26-05-2019 4:04pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Could see him making top 2 from the parliamentary party which would almost be an even worse outcome.

Depends who the other candidate is. Some of them are quite awful.

Capt'n Midnight · 26-05-2019 4:34pm

bilston wrote: »

In the current climate Gove is potentially the best the Tories can hope for. I'll rephrase that he is the best the UK can hope for, mainly because he is against a No Deal Brexit. Rory Stewart has a lot of good qualities but hasn't a hope of winning given he is a Remainer, likewise Matt Hancock who lets face no one has heard of.

Only a Brexiteer can win this and Gove is probably the least hard Brexit from that camp.

I'll say one thing about Boris Johnson, he will do anything to become PM and that includes being less than up front with the truth. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he backtracked on a no deal Brexit if push came to shove. I'm not even that certain he is really a Brexiteer. I suspect he has taken that angle just to become PM.

The party membership doesn't get to vote until the final two.

Until then it's up to the MP's and it's a secret ballot. So maybe they can thin the field a bit.

The ERG alone can't keep both Boris and Grove in the running. And everyone knows Boris is out for number one. Grove isn't to be trusted either.

briany · 26-05-2019 4:52pm

bilston wrote: »

I'll say one thing about Boris Johnson, he will do anything to become PM and that includes being less than up front with the truth. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he backtracked on a no deal Brexit if push came to shove. I'm not even that certain he is really a Brexiteer. I suspect he has taken that angle just to become PM.

If Robert Frost wrote a poem about Boris Johnson's involvement with Brexit, it would go like, "Two roads diverged in a yellow wood. David Cameron went down one, so Boris naturally went down the other."

ancapailldorcha · 26-05-2019 4:53pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think Boris would win a ballot of members, but he has to be in the top 2 candidates in a ballot of MPs first.

May didn't need a members vote at all: Fox was eliminated after the first ballot of MPs, Crabb withdrew. Gove was eliminated after the second, and Leadsom withdrew, leaving the job to May.

Good point. However, one thing Boris has going for him is that he is an excellent orator. The MPs will have 2022 or sooner on their minds as well as Brexit. Boris is likely popular with many Leave/Tory voters and could be an asset in this regard, particularly if he is willing to adopt a softer stance on Brexit though I wouldn't trust him even if he did.

26-05-2019 5:09pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Depends who the other candidate is. Some of them are quite awful.

That's my point, if he was in the final 2 it would be against an extreme brexiteer most likely and the membership would go that way.

Enzokk · 26-05-2019 6:13pm

I have no idea if this is accurate and if it is how to take it either.

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1132680002527305729

EU election: German projections show heavy losses for ruling parties, surge for Greens

I guess the interest is to see how big of a block the far-right is able to win and if this will have a material impact on the way the EU functions. From those links, I have no idea either way what it means.

Also, if there is gains from the far-right and the Brexit Party, does that not negate the need to leave the EU if they can shape it to their image?

54and56 · 26-05-2019 7:13pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think BJ backed out and there was some night of the long knives involving Gove.

Now there's a dark horse, watch him.

Stewart is my preference by a long way but if it boils down to choosing a Brexiteer who can squeeze BJ out of the top two spots (and assuming whichever Brexiteer gets into the top 2 wins the party membership vote) then Gove would be my Brexiteer pick all day long.

He's a pragmatic sleeveen who has the ability to convince both the grass roots and Tory MPs that in the event the EU won't reopen the WA that the correct strategic decision would be to vote the WA through and then stick it to the EU in the second phase trade negotiations.

If somehow a sensible One Nation Remainer can't win Gove is by far the least worst Brexiteer alternative.

CelticRambler · 26-05-2019 7:21pm

Enzokk wrote: »

Also, if there is gains from the far-right and the Brexit Party, does that not negate the need to leave the EU if they can shape it to their image?

First indications are that there isn't anywhere near enough of a gain for any of the far-right parties to form a bloc with EU-shaping influence, and it would certainly be a difficult sell for the Brexit Party in particular to go back to their electorate and say "actually, maybe not doing Brexit isn't such a bad idea after all ..."

Also, the far-right parties have a track record of finding it difficult to agree amongst themselves, never mind forming effective alliances with other groups. Just look at the split between UKIP and the BP, or within the ERG.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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