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Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

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    #512
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Snow likely on Friday/Saturday on high ground in Scotland.

    81-780UK_yeq6.GIF


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    #513
    MidMan25
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    MTs forecasts for November

    "First of all, I expect November to be variable and average near normal for temperatures and precipitation. Expect a wide variety of weather types and one or two rather windy days but also a lot of anticylonic weather."

    How's he doing so far / how are his predictions looking for the rest of the month?


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    #514
    Schadenfreudia
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    MidMan25 wrote: »

    How's he doing so far / how are his predictions looking for the rest of the month?

    Well, in the competition he forecast an IMT of 9.8C...over two degrees above average!

    Looking damn good right now - I reckon he's holding the good stuff back from us ;)


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    #515
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,381 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    This month is definitely milder than what I had in mind a month ago but then it was becoming obvious that a very mild period would happen by the time we had our monthly contest. However, the "variable" part may yet be a reasonable call as things are starting to look more and more volatile. Beyond that, I don't see much change upstream or in terms of Atlantic temperatures, so I will probably be confirming my preliminary outlook for the main winter months this weekend as promised (let's say Sunday 15th for that.

    There will also be a call for forecasts in a winter forecast contest to be announced just after that, deadline to be 1st of December. We'll see what the forum consensus looks like and sometimes that is one of the better long-range forecasts you'll find on the internet.

    So to summarize, I am still expecting more mild weather than cold until well on into January, then possibly a period of blocking, but no guarantee that this would deliver much to Ireland, with Britain somewhat more likely to get the cold and snow implied by that change in pattern. But I will give everything one last look in the next three days and report back on Sunday.


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    #516
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,249 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Not sounding great for us cold lovers so :( I really want snow before Christmas, it adds to the overall atmosphere!


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    #517
    Metmaster
    Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭Metmaster


    There is sleet and snow being forecasted thursday night on higher ground in the north but by the weekend its going to be mild again but tis a start at least.


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    #518
    budweiser6
    Registered Users Posts: 74 ✭✭budweiser6


    Back on the rollercoaster again for another winter... just love this winter weather forum... still not able to contribute much but will enjoy the next few months of highs and lows from all the usual posters here! Looking forward to the chase of the white shtuff!


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    #519
    Metmaster
    Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭Metmaster


    Correct me if im wrong here but the first half of november 2010 was also mild, wet and windy just like now, then followed by colder conditions with wintry showers. So, maybe the second half of november might see the cold weather start to sweep in.


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    #520
    q85dw7osi4lebg
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭q85dw7osi4lebg


    Metmaster wrote: »
    Correct me if im wrong here but the first half of november 2010 was also mild, wet and windy just like now, then followed by colder conditions with wintry showers. So, maybe the second half of november might see the cold weather start to sweep in.

    Anything is possible.

    2010:

    19th to 26th: Pressure rose over Ireland as an anticyclone developed in mid-Atlantic. Winds veered
    to a north or northeasterly direction, bringing progressively colder conditions, with frost becoming
    widespread. Rainfall amounts in most inland and southern areas were small, but showers were
    frequent in coastal areas and were heavy near the east coast on the 22nd. Most days during this
    period were sunny.

    27th to 30th: As the anticyclone shifted to the far northwest of Ireland, a bitterly cold northeasterly
    airstream brought a sharp drop in temperatures across the country. Wintry showers, initially in
    coastal areas of the east and northwest, became more widespread during the period, resulting in
    accumulations of snow over most of the country. Showers were thundery at times in eastern areas.
    Exceptionally low air and ground temperatures were measured in Leinster on the 28th and 29th, but
    severe frost was widespread, with freezing fog in places.


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    #521
    RobertKK
    Registered Users Posts: 33,733 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    BBC weather/met office showed snow for tomorrow (5am) for the Wicklow mountains, they had a little white blob for central southen Leinster/eastern Munster - Tipperary/Laois/Kilkenny, maybe it was sleet for the higher grounds in these areas.


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    #522
    Metmaster
    Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭Metmaster


    RobertKK wrote: »
    BBC weather/met office showed snow for tomorrow (5am) for the Wicklow mountains, they had a little white blob for central southen Leinster/eastern Munster - Tipperary/Laois/Kilkenny, maybe it was sleet for the higher grounds in these areas.

    Correct, tommorow night will be cold especially higher ground which will give wintry showers there.


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    #523
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Metmaster wrote: »
    Correct me if im wrong here but the first half of november 2010 was also mild, wet and windy just like now, then followed by colder conditions with wintry showers. So, maybe the second half of november might see the cold weather start to sweep in.

    Nah bro, you're correct.

    The first frost of that November I had took place during the night of the 14th and the following night the 15th was cold too. Then it turned milder again from the 16th until the 23rd when it became gradually colder for me.

    My maximum temperatures for all of November 2010 to show this as proof.

    Monday 1st: 15.6c
    Tuesday 2nd: 15.7c
    Wednesday 3rd: 17.6c
    Thursday 4th: 16.9c
    Friday 5th: 12.8c
    Saturday 6th: 12.1c
    Sunday 7th: 9.7c - sunshine made it feel colder
    Monday 8th: 12.8c
    Tuesday 9th: 12.1c
    Wednesday 10th: 10.1c - again sunshine!
    Thursday 11th: 13.7c
    Friday 12th: 11.4c
    Saturday 13th: 11.6c
    Sunday 14th: 8.2c
    Monday 15th: 8.3c
    Tuesday 16th: 10.9c
    Wednesday 17th: 12.5c
    Thursday 18th: 12.4c
    Friday 19th: 11.9c
    Saturday 20th: 12.0c
    Sunday 21st: 11.6c
    Monday 22nd: 11.4c
    Tuesday 23rd: 8.1c
    Wednesday 24th: 7.6c
    Thursday 25th: 7.1c
    Friday 26th: 5.9c
    Saturday 27th: 1.3c
    Sunday 28th: -1.2c
    Monday 29th: -1.1c
    Tuesday 30th: -1.1c

    What a range for November! From 17.6c all the way down to -1.2c!

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #524
    Metmaster
    Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭Metmaster


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Nah bro, you're correct.

    The first frost of that November I had took place during the night of the 14th and the following night the 15th was cold too. Then it turned milder again from the 16th until the 23rd when it became gradually colder for me.

    My maximum temperatures for all of November 2010 to show this as proof.

    Monday 1st: 15.6c
    Tuesday 2nd: 15.7c
    Wednesday 3rd: 17.6c
    Thursday 4th: 16.9c
    Friday 5th: 12.8c
    Saturday 6th: 12.1c
    Sunday 7th: 9.7c - sunshine made it feel colder
    Monday 8th: 12.8c
    Tuesday 9th: 12.1c
    Wednesday 10th: 10.1c - again sunshine!
    Thursday 11th: 13.7c
    Friday 12th: 11.4c
    Saturday 13th: 11.6c
    Sunday 14th: 8.2c
    Monday 15th: 8.3c
    Tuesday 16th: 10.9c
    Wednesday 17th: 12.5c
    Thursday 18th: 12.4c
    Friday 19th: 11.9c
    Saturday 20th: 12.0c
    Sunday 21st: 11.6c
    Monday 22nd: 11.4c
    Tuesday 23rd: 8.1c
    Wednesday 24th: 7.6c
    Thursday 25th: 7.1c
    Friday 26th: 5.9c
    Saturday 27th: 1.3c
    Sunday 28th: -1.2c
    Monday 29th: -1.1c
    Tuesday 30th: -1.1c

    What a range for November! From 17.6c all the way down to -1.2c!

    Well put! Its definitely shaping out well. If we get a cold spell in the next 2 weeks then id say were in for a cold one!!


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    #525
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Metmaster wrote: »
    Well put! Its definitely shaping out well. If we get a cold spell in the next 2 weeks then id say were in for a cold one!!

    Yeah in the first two weeks of November 2010, I had a deviation of average temperature with +2.2c then it significantly dropped to -1.6c below average.

    This November, I have a deviation of average of +4.2c so far :pac:. I really hope Mother Nature gives us the cold shoulder if ya know what I mean.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #526
    Metmaster
    Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭Metmaster


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Yeah in the first two weeks of November 2010, I had a deviation of average temperature with +2.2c then it significantly dropped to -1.6c below average.

    This November, I have a deviation of average of +4.2c so far :pac:. I really hope Mother Nature gives us the cold shoulder if ya know what I mean.

    Looking good so far then. The only thing I fear is that accuweathers long range forecast is looking mild,mild and more mild. But if everything continues going to plan we shud be under a blanket of snow in 14 days.


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    #527
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Metmaster wrote: »
    Looking good so far then. The only thing I fear is that accuweathers long range forecast is looking mild,mild and more mild. But if everything continues going to plan we shud be under a blanket of snow in 14 days.

    99.9% of the time, Accuweather's long range forecasts are always wrong!

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #528
    Metmaster
    Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭Metmaster


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    99.9% of the time, Accuweather's long range forecasts are always wrong!

    Heres hoping!


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    #529
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,910 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    TV3 leading with the weather which is a bit ott.

    Of interest though they interviewed Ger Fleming and he said no cold weather in sight for rest of November anyway.

    We'll see how the charts go over the next few days. Certainly a cool down on the cards.
    He might have egg on his face yet lol


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    #530
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Of interest though they interviewed Ger Fleming and he said no cold weather in sight for rest of November anyway.

    He might have egg on his face yet lol

    The models are suggesting a general cool down, but nothing out of the ordinary for mid-late November.

    I recall Gerry Fleming a couple of years back going against the populist grain at the time saying that there was no signs of a major cold winter ahead when basically every newspaper was forecasting such - forecasts that were based on what they called 'experts'. Gerry Fleming proved to be right in the end, so I'd not dismiss his opinion at all.

    New Moon



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    #531
    Clonmel1000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    TV3 leading with the weather which is a bit ott.

    Of interest though they interviewed Ger Fleming and he said no cold weather in sight for rest of November anyway.

    We'll see how the charts go over the next few days. Certainly a cool down on the cards.
    He might have egg on his face yet lol

    A cool down from record breaking temperatures is hardly newsworthy. Id be confident that if Ger Fleming says there is no major cold on way then there's no major cold on way.


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    #532
    WheatenBriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,170 ✭✭✭WheatenBriar


    Its easy to be right when your prediction is for our normal weather when theres nothing abnormal within the reliable
    Gerry is just doing his public service job like every responsible met service, no wish casting or hope casting
    Just the forecast


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    #533
    Metmaster
    Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭Metmaster


    WheatenBriar wrote: »
    Its easy to be right when your prediction is for our normal weather when theres nothing abnormal within the reliable
    Gerry is just doing his public service job like every responsible met service, no wish casting or hope casting
    Just the forecast

    Yeah, it simply cant be predicted maybe a week or two at a push but nothing beyond that. Maybe hes right that theres no snow in sight for the rest of november but noone knows what will happen in December as of now.


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    #534
    Clonmel1000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    Metmaster wrote: »
    Yeah, it simply cant be predicted maybe a week or two at a push but nothing beyond that. Maybe hes right that theres no snow in sight for the rest of november but noone knows what will happen in December as of now.

    A sentiment I'm sure Gerry Fleming would agree with wholeheartedly.


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    #535
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,910 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Clonmel1000 wrote: »
    A cool down from record breaking temperatures is hardly newsworthy. Id be confident that if Ger Fleming says there is no major cold on way then there's no major cold on way.
    There's DEEP cold a hare's breath away from us by the middle of next week.
    I'm confident Ger Fleming could be wrong.
    Let's give it a few days to see what develops


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    #536
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,910 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Metmaster wrote: »
    Yeah, it simply cant be predicted maybe a week or two at a push but nothing beyond that. Maybe hes right that theres no snow in sight for the rest of november but noone knows what will happen in December as of now.

    Agree but he has written off the whole month of Nov on the 12th with almost 3 weeks to go!
    The point I'm making is we all know that a week is about the longest you can reliably forecast the weather so why should he comment on rest of month.
    If anything tonight's evidence is that the pv is struggling to set up shop over Greenland.

    Folks these charts are better than you think.
    Just look at those bitter uppers close to Northern Ireland at times next week


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    #537
    icesnowfrost
    Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    Hi guys is there a weather charts/models page set up yet or even Fi page?


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    #538
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    icesnowfrost wrote: »
    Hi guys is there a weather charts/models page set up yet or even Fi page?

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057484270


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    #539
    Metmaster
    Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭Metmaster


    It has officially begun. Donegal was under a blanket this morning and with the weather set to change in the next week or so..i sense a 2010 pattern shaping up.


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    #540
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Metmaster wrote: »
    It has officially begun. Donegal was under a blanket this morning and with the weather set to change in the next week or so..i sense a 2010 pattern shaping up.

    It's just a brief shot of colder air that is getting dragged down by the passing low pressure system. Tomorrow afternoon temperatures will be back up to 15 degrees again. If it gets cold again in future it will be due to some other changes in the atmosphere, not related to this.


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    #541
    Metmaster
    Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭Metmaster


    maquiladora wrote: »
    It's just a brief shot of colder air that is getting dragged down by the passing low pressure system. Tomorrow afternoon temperatures will be back up to 15 degrees again. If it gets cold again in future it will be due to some other changes in the atmosphere, not related to this.
    Well see sure.


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