NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

Luck is pretty good in the dome but I have already put a bet on the Pats on the money line for this. Brady is an animal in the dome also, naturally.

I don't like going over 6.5 points but Saints -7 against Bengals is very tempting. OVer/under is 50.5 so might see if Saints -7/over 44.5 or so has decent odds when it comes out.

49ers -4.5 against the Giants, in NY or not, in frankly a little insane looking. Giants defence is riddled with injuries and their offense has been very poor - they had 17 against the Seahawks, but one TD came off starting on Seattle's 24 from a pick and the other drive relied on a 44 yarder from Beckham (who has admittedly looked very good the last two weeks). Against the Colts so-so defense they had 24 points, but 14 were junk time TDs down 40-10 in the fourth. Over/under is 43.5 points so tempted to wait to see if 49ers -4/over 43.5 is around 13/8 whenever they come out too.

Vikings +3.5 against the Bears as has been mentioned is probably too good to turn down. Keep an eye on Bridgewater's over/under passing yards too (not out til Saturday on PP) because the Giants safeties and scheming are horrific.

Falcons +1.5 in Carolina too - Star Lotuleilei (sp?) is surely going to at least struggle with his ankle because that looked horrific last night - thankfully apparently no bones broken. The rest of their D is awful while Cam and the receivers are all struggling badly... decent chance Derek Anderson starts. Falcons will get a boost from the Bucs win and despite the second half collapse stil lshould have beaten the Lions in London, when Detroit got a second chance at a FG from their own delay of game (or false start? Can't remember) penalty.

PP do a 20% bonus for bets of 5 or more handicaps/matches so I'm going to lob in the Chargers just to win at 2/11 which brings the odds from 11.33/1 to 15.28/1 and stick €10 on. In other words... get ready for the Raiders to pull off the upset of the season!

Also not NFL related but when I went on to Paddy Power to check the odds a pop up showed up that gave me even odds on Murray to beat Raonic tonight when the normal price is 1/2 on. Put on the maximum allowed of €26... win or lose, can't argue with doubling the odds!

They're -5.5 on Paddy too, were 5 until this morning or last night. I've not put anything on it yet, but tempted on Packers -2.5 and over 48.5 at 10/11 or -6.5 and over 48.5 and 2/1.

Also Sanchez under 275.5 passing yards is tempting. As much sh!t at us Green Bay fans give Capers for getting bent over every time we play either an elite QB or a QB who can be devastating with the pass or run (hello, Kaepernick!) he is very good at usually bullying average QBs throughout the game (Cutler and Stafford will attest to this) which I think will be a major factor tonight despite Sanchez looking to fit the Eagles system very well. Also added to that Clay should be playing a lot of ILB again where (yes, the Bears are woeful but still...) he was fantastic last week and showed up everywhere - go short right and he's there, go short left and he's there, go over the middle and he's there, take longer and he's crashing in on a blitz. Haha Dix and Hyde also to an extent have helped our shocking safety play from last year so we are not as vulnerable deep over the middle, and Clay might go some way to helping out at ILB where we were equally poor and were otherwise only marginally improved this season. Also, we did good against Forte running last week but I expect the Eagles to run a bit more and take some sting out of the crowd by looking to keep the ball longer - obviously this also means less passing yards for Sanchez.

There's always rats an upset Lucky

My own pick for an upset this week is the Giants over the 9ers