Official EPCR Champions Cup Preview Thread - A New Hope

matthew8 · 20-10-2014 05:59PM

Leinster

Just saw the Pisi drop, no way that's due to any injury. How hard is it to hold the ball in 2 hands or at least closer to your chest when you're clear through?

Taco Corp · 20-10-2014 06:30PM

matthew8 wrote: »

Just saw the Pisi drop, no way that's due to any injury. How hard is it to hold the ball in 2 hands or at least closer to your chest when you're clear through?

is that on youtube?

matthew8 · 20-10-2014 06:45PM

Leinster

Captain_Hindsight wrote: »

is that on youtube?

Lots of highlights videos as well as a video called "le double fail de Northampton" or something along those lines.

former legend · 20-10-2014 06:45PM

Leinster

Captain_Hindsight wrote: »

is that on youtube?

http://www.rugbyonslaught.com/2014/10/george-pisi-horror-ball-drop-on-way-to.html?m=1

Awful. And I'm pretty sure he faked the subsequent injury.

sydthebeat · 20-10-2014 06:55PM

Clermont

Martin bayfield is a fecking humongous man.......

it's funny seeing him interview locks and they have to look up to him

iroced · 21-10-2014 01:27AM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Can anything be done about the French not caring about the Challenge Cup? I know Montpellier were fined a few seasons ago for leaving out players in their European squad but this seems to be a lineup issue as opposed to a squad.

Start by making it a meaningful competition perhaps?

This is probably one of the stupidest competition in the world all sports included. How come newly promotted teams can have to play a European competition is beyond unreal.

Everything they tried to make it more interesting (like giving a second chance to the worst seconds of HCup groups) was just choping and changing it uselessly. The whole format needs to be changed.
They reduced the HCup ERCC but still have this stuff about the best seconds. Wrong. Again. They want it reduced? Reduce it to 16 teams, First 5 of English, French & Italo-Celtic league + previous year winner. 4 groups of 4. First 2 play 1/4 finals. Seconds play it away.
Then reduce the Challenge to 16 teams too. 6-8th placed teams from French, English & Italo-Celtic leagues + previous year winner + first 2 of Italian, Romanian & Spanish leagues (or maybe take only the first and open it to other leagues like the Georgian one). 1/4f the same way than for ERCC.

Basically make it a meritocracy system and not the "consanguineous" one we have for years. It could help the small leagues teams to progress too. If it's really not the case or if it doesn't look like it can be achieved now, add 1 team from the 3 big leagues and take only teh champion from the small ones. If they progress open it later to the format I first introduced.

phog · 21-10-2014 06:42AM

Lam thinking of resting players to keep them fit for the Rabo game v Ospreys

21-10-2014 07:59AM

Northampton

Paddy Power saying all kinds of weirdness for next week. Munster favourites at home by -3 to Sarecens, Leintser favourites away by -2 to Castres and Ulster favourites at home by -2 to Toulon.

thomond2006 · 21-10-2014 08:01AM

Leinster

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Paddy Power saying all kinds of weirdness for next week. Munster favourites at home by -3 to Sarecens, Leintser favourites away by -2 to Castres and Ulster favourites at home by -2 to Toulon.

None of them are outlandish to me!

former legend · 21-10-2014 08:04AM

Leinster

thomond2006 wrote: »

None of them are outlandish to me!

Yeah; Munster will always be favourites at home, not sure about the Leinster one to be honest and Toulon were pretty unimpressive against Scarlets.

I suppose the odds have to reflect where they think the money will go, if they made Saracens favourites, they'd be flooded with bets on Munster.

21-10-2014 08:37AM

Leinster

former legend wrote: »

Yeah; Munster will always be favourites at home, not sure about the Leinster one to be honest and Toulon were pretty unimpressive against Scarlets.

I suppose the odds have to reflect where they think the money will go, if they made Saracens favourites, they'd be flooded with bets on Munster.

they don't do this. Pari Mutuel betting (Tote) is not practiced anymore other than at race tracks, only (GTO) Game Theory Optimal prices are found in the markets. The prices reflect the win probabilities as deemed by the markets.

21-10-2014 08:43AM

Northampton

former legend wrote: »

I suppose the odds have to reflect where they think the money will go

Totally agree. I think Ulster will need a big performance to beat Toulon, last week aside - Toulon wouldn't see Scarlets as a threat to progression in the way they will certainly see Ulster as one and I expect them to show up this weekend.

I think Ulster can do it - but I don't know about a favourites tag.

As for Leinster, it will be interesting to see the side that Castres name but I think at home they will still most likely show up and make us seriously work for it.

Depends on who we have back also - Ross & Kearney would be a serious boost.

sydneybound · 21-10-2014 09:00AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Leintser favourites away by -2 to Castres.

Even at home I don't think Castres will be too bother given that they desperately need to stay up in the Top14. They might put out a decent team at home but lack the normal fight. Reckon Leinster should really win this, would be great to get an away win.

former legend · 21-10-2014 09:06AM

Leinster

Deleted User wrote: »

they don't do this. Pari Mutuel betting (Tote) is not practiced anymore other than at race tracks, only (GTO) Game Theory Optimal prices are found in the markets. The prices reflect the win probabilities as deemed by the markets.

Wow, a whole lot of stuff that went right over my head. Think you've misunderstood my post; I wasn't suggesting that they use a Tote system at all?

But your last point is interesting; when you say "markets", who are you talking about? Is this punters placing bets or some sort of exchange?

Buer · 21-10-2014 09:08AM

Glasgow

I honestly wouldn't trust Castres at all. They might be indifferent, they might give it everything they have. I've given up trying to accurately guess how a French side will perform in Europe.

One thing I'll be sure of, when at home they're not going to roll over for anyone.

21-10-2014 09:16AM

Northampton

former legend wrote: »

Yeah; Munster will always be favourites at home, not sure about the Leinster one to be honest and Toulon were pretty unimpressive against Scarlets.

I suppose the odds have to reflect where they think the money will go, if they made Saracens favourites, they'd be flooded with bets on Munster.

One unimpressive performance makes Ulster favourites over the 3 time champions?

Sarries have been far more consistent than Munster. All Munster have going for them is they smashed a dwindling Leinster and eeked out a victory last weekend. Thomand has been proven to be no fortress to date.

I actually don't know much about Castres but Leinster have been at their worst and are riddled with injuries.

former legend · 21-10-2014 09:23AM

Leinster

Deleted User wrote: »

One unimpressive performance makes Ulster favourites over the 3 time champions?

Steady on there now; I don't see three stars on the Toulon jersey (yet). But Ulster's home advantage combined with Toulon's shaky away record combined with Toulon's average-enough showing against Scarlets makes Ulster favourites.

Deleted User wrote: »

Sarries have been far more consistent than Munster. All Munster have going for them is they smashed a dwindling Leinster and eeked out a victory last weekend. Thomand has been proven to be no fortress to date.

I actually don't know much about Castres but Leinster have been at their worst and are riddled with injuries.

Don't disagree with any of that, but the bookies will never make the visitors to Thomond the favourites, we make a big deal out of their home defeats simply because they are so rare.

Castres could turn us over by 20 points or they could lose by 20, no-one really knows.

phog · 21-10-2014 09:24AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Paddy Power saying all kinds of weirdness for next week. Munster favourites at home by -3 to Sarecens, Leintser favourites away by -2 to Castres and Ulster favourites at home by -2 to Toulon.

For a non betting man, what does -3 mean?

21-10-2014 09:35AM

Leinster

former legend wrote: »

Wow, a whole lot of stuff that went right over my head. Think you've misunderstood my post; I wasn't suggesting that they use a Tote system at all?

But your last point is interesting; when you say "markets", who are you talking about? Is this punters placing bets or some sort of exchange?

Pari Mutuel betting is "Tote" style, and what people mean when they say "where the money goes", what it means is that no matter the outcome, a book keeper has balanced his book so that he books a profit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parimutuel_betting

GTO pricing is what's used across the markets (example - look how close all the prices align here - http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/wolverhampton/15:20/winner . Markets mean all available exchanges / book keepers etc. Any prices that are out of line widely will present arbitrage (risk free wins) opportunities and so they can't react "to where the money goes". They must reflect the win probabilities (&margin) instead.

Buer · 21-10-2014 09:37AM

Glasgow

Deleted User wrote: »

One unimpressive performance makes Ulster favourites over the 3 time champions?

Sarries have been far more consistent than Munster. All Munster have going for them is they smashed a dwindling Leinster and eeked out a victory last weekend. Thomand has been proven to be no fortress to date.

I actually don't know much about Castres but Leinster have been at their worst and are riddled with injuries.

Look at Toulon's record away from home in the pools. Impressive, it ain't.

Sarries are better but they're missing some important players. Also, Munster are tough to beat in Thomond and have beaten Saracens before there. They've momentum.

Castres are having a poor season but, like most French sides, are schizophrenic in Europe.

former legend · 21-10-2014 09:41AM

Leinster

Deleted User wrote: »

Pari Mutuel betting is "Tote" style, and what people mean when they say "where the money goes", what it means is that no matter the outcome, a book keeper has balanced his book so that he books a profit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parimutuel_betting

I understand that; I'm just not sure why you think that I thought this was how bookies operate? (anyway, I don't)

Deleted User wrote: »

GTO pricing is what's used across the markets (example - look how close all the prices align here - http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/wolverhampton/15:20/winner). Markets mean all available exchanges / book keepers etc. Any prices that are out of line widely will present arbitrage (risk free wins) opportunities and so they can't react "to where the money goes". They must reflect the win probabilities (&margin) instead.

Yeah, again, get all that. Arbitrage would be known as 'a middle' by those of us with less fancy educations. Of course one bookie can't be wildly out of step with every else, he'll be cleaned out.

I suppose what I'm really asking is; someone has to set an initial price for this game. You can't look at the next bookie and see what his odds are if no-one has published them yet, so what happens?

EDIT: don't worry about it, this is more suited to the gambling thread.

thomond2006 · 21-10-2014 09:46AM

Leinster

phog wrote: »

For a non betting man, what does -3 mean?

The plus or minus number applies to a handicap. People often bet on teams with a positive or negative handicap.

If you back a team -3, they must win by at least 4.

If a team is +3, they must finish by at worst two points less than the opposition ie win the game if a three point head start is included.

So the bookies' favourite will always have a negative handicap at the 10/11 price (the more or less 50/50 probability/price)

Podge_irl · 21-10-2014 09:54AM

former legend wrote: »

EDIT: don't worry about it, this is more suited to the gambling thread.

Indeed, but I'm quite curious about this so let's go...

Anyway, I think Sarries and Toulon could both hope for an away win, but for all Toulon's superstars I think Sarries are better placed to achieve it. Toulon's away record in Europe is not remotely impressive.

21-10-2014 10:16AM

Northampton

phog wrote: »

For a non betting man, what does -3 mean?

I'm not a betting man but I've always taken as the margin that the team is predicted to win by. Munster at -3 means the most likely outcome is Munster to win by 3 points.

Larbre34 · 21-10-2014 10:58AM

Ulster

Many thanks to EPRCRPRCRPCR for choosing this particular image to advertise their Round 1 highlights reel....'Champions Cup comes in with a bang!'

thomond2006 · 22-10-2014 10:34AM

Leinster

Paul Rowley, former Munster academy player, starts at 9 for London Welsh tomorrow. He was unlucky to be in the same academy year as one Conor Murray.

former legend · 22-10-2014 10:37AM

Leinster

thomond2006 wrote: »

Paul Rowley, former Munster academy player, starts at 9 for London Welsh tomorrow. He was unlucky to be in the same academy year as one Conor Murray.

Even unluckier to have wound up at London Welsh!

Deano7788 · 22-10-2014 12:35PM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Paul Rowley, former Munster academy player, starts at 9 for London Welsh tomorrow. He was unlucky to be in the same academy year as one Conor Murray.

He was in the same Munchin's team as Keith Earls and Ger Slattery that won the Munster Senior Cup in 2006. Murray was a year below and was kept on the bench.

Delighted to see him playing in Europe (even if it is with London Welsh

), hopefully he'll get some time in the Premiership as well. Always good to see a young player (espeically when you know them since you were 12) taking the opportunity to try to make a go of it in the Championship and then getting picked up by a Premiership team (again, even if it is London Welsh...).

vienne86 · 23-10-2014 04:54PM

Leinster

Castres are having a dire season. But last year, they really put it up to Leinster, and we were lucky to come away with a win. They will want to imress their fans on Sunday and given our injuries, they could well turn us over.

sydthebeat · 23-10-2014 05:46PM

Clermont

vienne86 wrote: »

Castres are having a dire season. But last year, they really put it up to Leinster, and we were lucky to come away with a win. They will want to imress their fans on Sunday and given our injuries, they could well turn us over.

agreed

we're three times champions

we're a scalp any team would want

Official EPCR Champions Cup Preview Thread - A New Hope

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