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Official EPCR Champions Cup Preview Thread - A New Hope

former legend

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Right, so we're a week away from the kick-off of the new and improved Heineken Cup European Professional Club Rugby Champions Cup. The TV deals are sealed, the awkward photo shoots are done and, erm, some of the fixtures have been announced.

Some of the dead wood of the Pro12 has been cleared out and we're now looking at a streamlined, super competitive tournament.
Say what you want about how we got to this point, but the number of juicy ties every weekend is pretty exciting. The dual TV coverage is a bit of a pain but it does at least mean every game will be covered live so reinforce the sofa cushions, stock up on beers and salty processed foods, it's European rugby time again!

Pool winners and the three best placed runners-up to proceed.

Pool 1:
ASM Clermont Auvergne
Munster
Sale Sharks
Saracens

Round 1:
Sale v Munster - Saturday 18/10/14, 1300 - Sky
Saracens v Clermont - Saturday 18/10/14, 1515 - BT

Round 2:
Munster v Saracens - Friday 24/10/14, 1945 - BT
Clermont v Sale - Sunday 26/10/14, 1515 - Sky

The first of the pools of death sees Munster faced with a very difficult pool. Last year's runners-up, Saracens, have got off to a great start in the Premiership and have a big enough squad to fight on two fronts. Towards the end of last season, Clermont looked to be a spent force but have started the Top 14 season like a train; they always targetted Europe but perhaps under a new coach, they might re-focus on the Top 14? Sale bring up the rear in this pool and could lose interest as the competition wears on.
This pool will be decided by narrow margins, probably depending on who fares best away from home. Munster could have an edge there in that opening their campaign away to Sale followed by hosting Saracens could see them with two wins on the board before the break for the internationals.
Given that Munster, Clermont and Saracens are likely to take points off each other, it's easy to think that this will be one of the pools from which only one team progresses.
FL's prediction: Saracens to progress thanks to their ability to grind out losing BPs.

Pool 2:
Castres Olympique
Harlequins
Leinster
London Wasps

Round 1:
Quins v Castres - Friday 17/10/14, 1945 - BT
Leinster v Wasps - Sunday 19/10/14, 1715 - BT

Round 2:
Castres v Leinster - Sunday 26/10/14, 1300 - Sky
Wasps v Quins - Sunday 26/10/14, 1715 - BT

A draw that most Leinster fans were initially happy with has been made to look even better now that all three opponents have got off to slow starts domestically. Castres have always been ambivalent towards Europe but will very likely be even more focussed on the Top 14 now that they languish in tenth spot. Wasps have hit the headlines for the wrong reasons in recent days so their eye may be taken off the ball too, while Quins have been up and down so far. The elephant in the room is, of course, Leinster's own stuttering start to the season; crippled by injuries and lacking any real cohesion, they may not be able to take full advantage of the kind draw.
An opener at home to Wasps, in the slightly bizarre Sunday evening time-slot, should help to settle their nerves before a tricky trip to Castres.
FL's prediction: Leinster's squad depth to carry them through, Quins to qualify as runner-up.

Pool 3:
Leicester
RC Toulon
Scarlets
Ulster

Round 1:
Leicester v Ulster - 18/10/14, 1945 - BT
Toulon v Scarlets - 19/10/14, 1515 - Sky

Round 2:
Ulster v Toulon - 25/10/14, 1300 - Sky
Scarlets v Leicester - 25/10/14, 1945 - BT

If Munster thought they got a bad draw... Leicester have been awful in the league but they always up their game for Europe, plus Brad Thorn has now arrived. Toulon are quite simply the best team in Europe, with an even stronger squad than last year, and the Scarlets can give anyone a game on their day. With the way the fixtures have fallen, Ulster's campaign could be over by the end of October; a Saturday lunchtime kickoff is not what they would have liked to welcome Toulon to Ravenhill
FL's prediction: Hard to see past Toulon dominating, everyone else to take points off one another and no runner-up to progress.

Pool 4:
Bath Rugby
Glasgow
Montpellier
Toulouse

Round 1:
Glasgow v Bath - 18/10/14, 1515 - BT
Toulouse v Montpellier - 19/10/14, 1300 - Sky

Round 2:
Bath v Toulouse - 25/10/14, 1515 - BT
Montpellier v Glasgow - 25/10/14, 1715 - Sky

An absolutely fascinating pool; Glasgow are the early pace-setters in the Pro12, Bath are second in the Premiership and Montpellier have impressed in the Top 14, while four-time European champions Toulouse have been awful and currently occupy 11th position in the Top 14. A lot will depend on the attitude of the French teams; Montpellier are nigh on invincible at home, will they bother to travel? Will the weakest Toulouse squad of recent times have any interest in Europe? Do Glasgow and Bath have the squad depths to compete in Europe and domestically?
FL's prediction; Haven't a rashers. I'd love to see Glasgow progress but their European pedigree is ropey and away wins will he hard to come by.

Pool 5:
Benetton Treviso
Northampton
Ospreys
Racing Metro 92

Round 1:
Racing v Saints - 18/10/14, 1815 - Sky
Ospreys v Treviso - 19/10/14, 1300 - Sky

Round 2:
Saints v Ospreys - 25/10/14, 1715 - Sky
Treviso v Racing - 26/10/14, 1715 - BT

A lot of this depends on how much Racing decide to target Europe. They are optimistic Jonny Sexton will be back and they look a much happier group of players this season; you still get the feeling that the Top 14 remains their priority though. Northampton sit atop the Premiership while the Ospreys are 5 from 5 in the Pro12 so there is no shortage of in-form teams in this pool. Treviso are yet to win, or even get a losing BP this season and will be dishing out bonus points like so many dolcetti.
FL's prediction: Two teams to progress, most likely Saints and Ospreys.

What are the odds?
Toulon, not surprisingly, are at 5/2 to win the trophy for the third year on the bounce. Somewhat more surprisingly, Leinster remain second favourites at 6/1, with Saints 7/1, Clermont and Saracens 8/1. Ulster and Munster are further back at 20/1.
The real value bet is Glasgow at 60/1, definitely worth a punt.

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matthew8

Just saw the Pisi drop, no way that's due to any injury. How hard is it to hold the ball in 2 hands or at least closer to your chest when you're clear through?

Taco Corp

matthew8 wrote: »

Just saw the Pisi drop, no way that's due to any injury. How hard is it to hold the ball in 2 hands or at least closer to your chest when you're clear through?

is that on youtube?

matthew8

Captain_Hindsight wrote: »

is that on youtube?

Lots of highlights videos as well as a video called "le double fail de Northampton" or something along those lines.

former legend

Captain_Hindsight wrote: »

is that on youtube?

http://www.rugbyonslaught.com/2014/10/george-pisi-horror-ball-drop-on-way-to.html?m=1

Awful. And I'm pretty sure he faked the subsequent injury.

sydthebeat

Martin bayfield is a fecking humongous man.......

it's funny seeing him interview locks and they have to look up to him

iroced

thomond2006 wrote: »

Can anything be done about the French not caring about the Challenge Cup? I know Montpellier were fined a few seasons ago for leaving out players in their European squad but this seems to be a lineup issue as opposed to a squad.

Start by making it a meaningful competition perhaps?

This is probably one of the stupidest competition in the world all sports included. How come newly promotted teams can have to play a European competition is beyond unreal.

Everything they tried to make it more interesting (like giving a second chance to the worst seconds of HCup groups) was just choping and changing it uselessly. The whole format needs to be changed.
They reduced the HCup ERCC but still have this stuff about the best seconds. Wrong. Again. They want it reduced? Reduce it to 16 teams, First 5 of English, French & Italo-Celtic league + previous year winner. 4 groups of 4. First 2 play 1/4 finals. Seconds play it away.
Then reduce the Challenge to 16 teams too. 6-8th placed teams from French, English & Italo-Celtic leagues + previous year winner + first 2 of Italian, Romanian & Spanish leagues (or maybe take only the first and open it to other leagues like the Georgian one). 1/4f the same way than for ERCC.

Basically make it a meritocracy system and not the "consanguineous" one we have for years. It could help the small leagues teams to progress too. If it's really not the case or if it doesn't look like it can be achieved now, add 1 team from the 3 big leagues and take only teh champion from the small ones. If they progress open it later to the format I first introduced.

phog

Lam thinking of resting players to keep them fit for the Rabo game v Ospreys

[Deleted User]

Paddy Power saying all kinds of weirdness for next week. Munster favourites at home by -3 to Sarecens, Leintser favourites away by -2 to Castres and Ulster favourites at home by -2 to Toulon.

thomond2006

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Paddy Power saying all kinds of weirdness for next week. Munster favourites at home by -3 to Sarecens, Leintser favourites away by -2 to Castres and Ulster favourites at home by -2 to Toulon.

None of them are outlandish to me!

former legend

thomond2006 wrote: »

None of them are outlandish to me!

Yeah; Munster will always be favourites at home, not sure about the Leinster one to be honest and Toulon were pretty unimpressive against Scarlets.

I suppose the odds have to reflect where they think the money will go, if they made Saracens favourites, they'd be flooded with bets on Munster.

[Deleted User]

former legend wrote: »

Yeah; Munster will always be favourites at home, not sure about the Leinster one to be honest and Toulon were pretty unimpressive against Scarlets.

I suppose the odds have to reflect where they think the money will go, if they made Saracens favourites, they'd be flooded with bets on Munster.

they don't do this. Pari Mutuel betting (Tote) is not practiced anymore other than at race tracks, only (GTO) Game Theory Optimal prices are found in the markets. The prices reflect the win probabilities as deemed by the markets.

[Deleted User]

former legend wrote: »

I suppose the odds have to reflect where they think the money will go

Totally agree. I think Ulster will need a big performance to beat Toulon, last week aside - Toulon wouldn't see Scarlets as a threat to progression in the way they will certainly see Ulster as one and I expect them to show up this weekend.

I think Ulster can do it - but I don't know about a favourites tag.

As for Leinster, it will be interesting to see the side that Castres name but I think at home they will still most likely show up and make us seriously work for it.

Depends on who we have back also - Ross & Kearney would be a serious boost.

sydneybound

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Leintser favourites away by -2 to Castres.

Even at home I don't think Castres will be too bother given that they desperately need to stay up in the Top14. They might put out a decent team at home but lack the normal fight. Reckon Leinster should really win this, would be great to get an away win.

former legend

Deleted User wrote: »

they don't do this. Pari Mutuel betting (Tote) is not practiced anymore other than at race tracks, only (GTO) Game Theory Optimal prices are found in the markets. The prices reflect the win probabilities as deemed by the markets.

Wow, a whole lot of stuff that went right over my head. Think you've misunderstood my post; I wasn't suggesting that they use a Tote system at all?

But your last point is interesting; when you say "markets", who are you talking about? Is this punters placing bets or some sort of exchange?

Buer

I honestly wouldn't trust Castres at all. They might be indifferent, they might give it everything they have. I've given up trying to accurately guess how a French side will perform in Europe.

One thing I'll be sure of, when at home they're not going to roll over for anyone.

[Deleted User]

former legend wrote: »

Yeah; Munster will always be favourites at home, not sure about the Leinster one to be honest and Toulon were pretty unimpressive against Scarlets.

I suppose the odds have to reflect where they think the money will go, if they made Saracens favourites, they'd be flooded with bets on Munster.

One unimpressive performance makes Ulster favourites over the 3 time champions?

Sarries have been far more consistent than Munster. All Munster have going for them is they smashed a dwindling Leinster and eeked out a victory last weekend. Thomand has been proven to be no fortress to date.

I actually don't know much about Castres but Leinster have been at their worst and are riddled with injuries.

former legend

Deleted User wrote: »

One unimpressive performance makes Ulster favourites over the 3 time champions?

Steady on there now; I don't see three stars on the Toulon jersey (yet). But Ulster's home advantage combined with Toulon's shaky away record combined with Toulon's average-enough showing against Scarlets makes Ulster favourites.

Deleted User wrote: »

Sarries have been far more consistent than Munster. All Munster have going for them is they smashed a dwindling Leinster and eeked out a victory last weekend. Thomand has been proven to be no fortress to date.

I actually don't know much about Castres but Leinster have been at their worst and are riddled with injuries.

Don't disagree with any of that, but the bookies will never make the visitors to Thomond the favourites, we make a big deal out of their home defeats simply because they are so rare.

Castres could turn us over by 20 points or they could lose by 20, no-one really knows.

phog

Deleted User wrote: »

Paddy Power saying all kinds of weirdness for next week. Munster favourites at home by -3 to Sarecens, Leintser favourites away by -2 to Castres and Ulster favourites at home by -2 to Toulon.

For a non betting man, what does -3 mean?

[Deleted User]

former legend wrote: »

Wow, a whole lot of stuff that went right over my head. Think you've misunderstood my post; I wasn't suggesting that they use a Tote system at all?

But your last point is interesting; when you say "markets", who are you talking about? Is this punters placing bets or some sort of exchange?

Pari Mutuel betting is "Tote" style, and what people mean when they say "where the money goes", what it means is that no matter the outcome, a book keeper has balanced his book so that he books a profit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parimutuel_betting

GTO pricing is what's used across the markets (example - look how close all the prices align here - http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/wolverhampton/15:20/winner . Markets mean all available exchanges / book keepers etc. Any prices that are out of line widely will present arbitrage (risk free wins) opportunities and so they can't react "to where the money goes". They must reflect the win probabilities (&margin) instead.

Buer

Deleted User wrote: »

One unimpressive performance makes Ulster favourites over the 3 time champions?

Sarries have been far more consistent than Munster. All Munster have going for them is they smashed a dwindling Leinster and eeked out a victory last weekend. Thomand has been proven to be no fortress to date.

I actually don't know much about Castres but Leinster have been at their worst and are riddled with injuries.

Look at Toulon's record away from home in the pools. Impressive, it ain't.

Sarries are better but they're missing some important players. Also, Munster are tough to beat in Thomond and have beaten Saracens before there. They've momentum.

Castres are having a poor season but, like most French sides, are schizophrenic in Europe.

former legend

Deleted User wrote: »

Pari Mutuel betting is "Tote" style, and what people mean when they say "where the money goes", what it means is that no matter the outcome, a book keeper has balanced his book so that he books a profit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parimutuel_betting

I understand that; I'm just not sure why you think that I thought this was how bookies operate? (anyway, I don't)

Deleted User wrote: »

GTO pricing is what's used across the markets (example - look how close all the prices align here - http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/wolverhampton/15:20/winner). Markets mean all available exchanges / book keepers etc. Any prices that are out of line widely will present arbitrage (risk free wins) opportunities and so they can't react "to where the money goes". They must reflect the win probabilities (&margin) instead.

Yeah, again, get all that. Arbitrage would be known as 'a middle' by those of us with less fancy educations. Of course one bookie can't be wildly out of step with every else, he'll be cleaned out.

I suppose what I'm really asking is; someone has to set an initial price for this game. You can't look at the next bookie and see what his odds are if no-one has published them yet, so what happens?

EDIT: don't worry about it, this is more suited to the gambling thread.

thomond2006

phog wrote: »

For a non betting man, what does -3 mean?

The plus or minus number applies to a handicap. People often bet on teams with a positive or negative handicap.

If you back a team -3, they must win by at least 4.

If a team is +3, they must finish by at worst two points less than the opposition ie win the game if a three point head start is included.

So the bookies' favourite will always have a negative handicap at the 10/11 price (the more or less 50/50 probability/price)

Podge_irl

former legend wrote: »

EDIT: don't worry about it, this is more suited to the gambling thread.

Indeed, but I'm quite curious about this so let's go...

Anyway, I think Sarries and Toulon could both hope for an away win, but for all Toulon's superstars I think Sarries are better placed to achieve it. Toulon's away record in Europe is not remotely impressive.

[Deleted User]

phog wrote: »

For a non betting man, what does -3 mean?

I'm not a betting man but I've always taken as the margin that the team is predicted to win by. Munster at -3 means the most likely outcome is Munster to win by 3 points.

Larbre34

Many thanks to EPRCRPRCRPCR for choosing this particular image to advertise their Round 1 highlights reel....'Champions Cup comes in with a bang!'

thomond2006

Paul Rowley, former Munster academy player, starts at 9 for London Welsh tomorrow. He was unlucky to be in the same academy year as one Conor Murray.

former legend

thomond2006 wrote: »

Paul Rowley, former Munster academy player, starts at 9 for London Welsh tomorrow. He was unlucky to be in the same academy year as one Conor Murray.

Even unluckier to have wound up at London Welsh!

Deano7788

thomond2006 wrote: »

Paul Rowley, former Munster academy player, starts at 9 for London Welsh tomorrow. He was unlucky to be in the same academy year as one Conor Murray.

He was in the same Munchin's team as Keith Earls and Ger Slattery that won the Munster Senior Cup in 2006. Murray was a year below and was kept on the bench.

Delighted to see him playing in Europe (even if it is with London Welsh

), hopefully he'll get some time in the Premiership as well. Always good to see a young player (espeically when you know them since you were 12) taking the opportunity to try to make a go of it in the Championship and then getting picked up by a Premiership team (again, even if it is London Welsh...).

vienne86

Castres are having a dire season. But last year, they really put it up to Leinster, and we were lucky to come away with a win. They will want to imress their fans on Sunday and given our injuries, they could well turn us over.

sydthebeat

vienne86 wrote: »

Castres are having a dire season. But last year, they really put it up to Leinster, and we were lucky to come away with a win. They will want to imress their fans on Sunday and given our injuries, they could well turn us over.

agreed

we're three times champions

we're a scalp any team would want