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Official EPCR Champions Cup Preview Thread - A New Hope

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,599 ✭✭✭matthew8


    Leinster
    Just saw the Pisi drop, no way that's due to any injury. How hard is it to hold the ball in 2 hands or at least closer to your chest when you're clear through?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,718 ✭✭✭Taco Corp


    matthew8 wrote: »
    Just saw the Pisi drop, no way that's due to any injury. How hard is it to hold the ball in 2 hands or at least closer to your chest when you're clear through?

    is that on youtube?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,599 ✭✭✭matthew8


    Leinster
    is that on youtube?

    Lots of highlights videos as well as a video called "le double fail de Northampton" or something along those lines.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,309 ✭✭✭former legend


    Leinster
    is that on youtube?

    http://www.rugbyonslaught.com/2014/10/george-pisi-horror-ball-drop-on-way-to.html?m=1

    Awful. And I'm pretty sure he faked the subsequent injury.


  • Subscribers Posts: 43,259 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Clermont
    Martin bayfield is a fecking humongous man.......

    it's funny seeing him interview locks and they have to look up to him


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,262 ✭✭✭iroced


    Can anything be done about the French not caring about the Challenge Cup? I know Montpellier were fined a few seasons ago for leaving out players in their European squad but this seems to be a lineup issue as opposed to a squad.

    Start by making it a meaningful competition perhaps?

    This is probably one of the stupidest competition in the world all sports included. How come newly promotted teams can have to play a European competition is beyond unreal.

    Everything they tried to make it more interesting (like giving a second chance to the worst seconds of HCup groups) was just choping and changing it uselessly. The whole format needs to be changed.
    They reduced the HCup ERCC but still have this stuff about the best seconds. Wrong. Again. They want it reduced? Reduce it to 16 teams, First 5 of English, French & Italo-Celtic league + previous year winner. 4 groups of 4. First 2 play 1/4 finals. Seconds play it away.
    Then reduce the Challenge to 16 teams too. 6-8th placed teams from French, English & Italo-Celtic leagues + previous year winner + first 2 of Italian, Romanian & Spanish leagues (or maybe take only the first and open it to other leagues like the Georgian one). 1/4f the same way than for ERCC.

    Basically make it a meritocracy system and not the "consanguineous" one we have for years. It could help the small leagues teams to progress too. If it's really not the case or if it doesn't look like it can be achieved now, add 1 team from the 3 big leagues and take only teh champion from the small ones. If they progress open it later to the format I first introduced.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,024 ✭✭✭✭phog




  • Posts: 13,822 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Northampton
    Paddy Power saying all kinds of weirdness for next week. Munster favourites at home by -3 to Sarecens, Leintser favourites away by -2 to Castres and Ulster favourites at home by -2 to Toulon.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Leinster
    Paddy Power saying all kinds of weirdness for next week. Munster favourites at home by -3 to Sarecens, Leintser favourites away by -2 to Castres and Ulster favourites at home by -2 to Toulon.

    None of them are outlandish to me!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,309 ✭✭✭former legend


    Leinster
    None of them are outlandish to me!

    Yeah; Munster will always be favourites at home, not sure about the Leinster one to be honest and Toulon were pretty unimpressive against Scarlets.

    I suppose the odds have to reflect where they think the money will go, if they made Saracens favourites, they'd be flooded with bets on Munster.


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  • Posts: 24,816 ✭✭✭✭ Tessa Delightful Sprinter


    Leinster
    Yeah; Munster will always be favourites at home, not sure about the Leinster one to be honest and Toulon were pretty unimpressive against Scarlets.

    I suppose the odds have to reflect where they think the money will go,
    if they made Saracens favourites, they'd be flooded with bets on Munster.
    they don't do this. Pari Mutuel betting (Tote) is not practiced anymore other than at race tracks, only (GTO) Game Theory Optimal prices are found in the markets. The prices reflect the win probabilities as deemed by the markets.


  • Posts: 20,606 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Northampton
    I suppose the odds have to reflect where they think the money will go

    Totally agree. I think Ulster will need a big performance to beat Toulon, last week aside - Toulon wouldn't see Scarlets as a threat to progression in the way they will certainly see Ulster as one and I expect them to show up this weekend.

    I think Ulster can do it - but I don't know about a favourites tag.

    As for Leinster, it will be interesting to see the side that Castres name but I think at home they will still most likely show up and make us seriously work for it.

    Depends on who we have back also - Ross & Kearney would be a serious boost.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,557 ✭✭✭sydneybound


    Leintser favourites away by -2 to Castres.

    Even at home I don't think Castres will be too bother given that they desperately need to stay up in the Top14. They might put out a decent team at home but lack the normal fight. Reckon Leinster should really win this, would be great to get an away win.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,309 ✭✭✭former legend


    Leinster
    they don't do this. Pari Mutuel betting (Tote) is not practiced anymore other than at race tracks, only (GTO) Game Theory Optimal prices are found in the markets. The prices reflect the win probabilities as deemed by the markets.

    Wow, a whole lot of stuff that went right over my head. Think you've misunderstood my post; I wasn't suggesting that they use a Tote system at all?

    But your last point is interesting; when you say "markets", who are you talking about? Is this punters placing bets or some sort of exchange?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,258 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    Glasgow
    I honestly wouldn't trust Castres at all. They might be indifferent, they might give it everything they have. I've given up trying to accurately guess how a French side will perform in Europe.

    One thing I'll be sure of, when at home they're not going to roll over for anyone.


  • Posts: 13,822 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Northampton
    Yeah; Munster will always be favourites at home, not sure about the Leinster one to be honest and Toulon were pretty unimpressive against Scarlets.

    I suppose the odds have to reflect where they think the money will go, if they made Saracens favourites, they'd be flooded with bets on Munster.

    One unimpressive performance makes Ulster favourites over the 3 time champions?

    Sarries have been far more consistent than Munster. All Munster have going for them is they smashed a dwindling Leinster and eeked out a victory last weekend. Thomand has been proven to be no fortress to date.

    I actually don't know much about Castres but Leinster have been at their worst and are riddled with injuries.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,309 ✭✭✭former legend


    Leinster
    One unimpressive performance makes Ulster favourites over the 3 time champions?

    Steady on there now; I don't see three stars on the Toulon jersey (yet). But Ulster's home advantage combined with Toulon's shaky away record combined with Toulon's average-enough showing against Scarlets makes Ulster favourites.

    Sarries have been far more consistent than Munster. All Munster have going for them is they smashed a dwindling Leinster and eeked out a victory last weekend. Thomand has been proven to be no fortress to date.

    I actually don't know much about Castres but Leinster have been at their worst and are riddled with injuries.

    Don't disagree with any of that, but the bookies will never make the visitors to Thomond the favourites, we make a big deal out of their home defeats simply because they are so rare.

    Castres could turn us over by 20 points or they could lose by 20, no-one really knows.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,024 ✭✭✭✭phog


    Paddy Power saying all kinds of weirdness for next week. Munster favourites at home by -3 to Sarecens, Leintser favourites away by -2 to Castres and Ulster favourites at home by -2 to Toulon.

    For a non betting man, what does -3 mean?


  • Posts: 24,816 ✭✭✭✭ Tessa Delightful Sprinter


    Leinster
    Wow, a whole lot of stuff that went right over my head. Think you've misunderstood my post; I wasn't suggesting that they use a Tote system at all?

    But your last point is interesting; when you say "markets", who are you talking about? Is this punters placing bets or some sort of exchange?

    Pari Mutuel betting is "Tote" style, and what people mean when they say "where the money goes", what it means is that no matter the outcome, a book keeper has balanced his book so that he books a profit.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parimutuel_betting

    GTO pricing is what's used across the markets (example - look how close all the prices align here - http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/wolverhampton/15:20/winner . Markets mean all available exchanges / book keepers etc. Any prices that are out of line widely will present arbitrage (risk free wins) opportunities and so they can't react "to where the money goes". They must reflect the win probabilities (&margin) instead.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,258 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    Glasgow
    One unimpressive performance makes Ulster favourites over the 3 time champions?

    Sarries have been far more consistent than Munster. All Munster have going for them is they smashed a dwindling Leinster and eeked out a victory last weekend. Thomand has been proven to be no fortress to date.

    I actually don't know much about Castres but Leinster have been at their worst and are riddled with injuries.

    Look at Toulon's record away from home in the pools. Impressive, it ain't.

    Sarries are better but they're missing some important players. Also, Munster are tough to beat in Thomond and have beaten Saracens before there. They've momentum.

    Castres are having a poor season but, like most French sides, are schizophrenic in Europe.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,309 ✭✭✭former legend


    Leinster
    Pari Mutuel betting is "Tote" style, and what people mean when they say "where the money goes", what it means is that no matter the outcome, a book keeper has balanced his book so that he books a profit.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parimutuel_betting

    I understand that; I'm just not sure why you think that I thought this was how bookies operate? (anyway, I don't)
    GTO pricing is what's used across the markets (example - look how close all the prices align here - http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/wolverhampton/15:20/winner). Markets mean all available exchanges / book keepers etc. Any prices that are out of line widely will present arbitrage (risk free wins) opportunities and so they can't react "to where the money goes". They must reflect the win probabilities (&margin) instead.

    Yeah, again, get all that. Arbitrage would be known as 'a middle' by those of us with less fancy educations. Of course one bookie can't be wildly out of step with every else, he'll be cleaned out.

    I suppose what I'm really asking is; someone has to set an initial price for this game. You can't look at the next bookie and see what his odds are if no-one has published them yet, so what happens?

    EDIT: don't worry about it, this is more suited to the gambling thread.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Leinster
    phog wrote: »
    For a non betting man, what does -3 mean?

    The plus or minus number applies to a handicap. People often bet on teams with a positive or negative handicap.

    If you back a team -3, they must win by at least 4.

    If a team is +3, they must finish by at worst two points less than the opposition ie win the game if a three point head start is included.

    So the bookies' favourite will always have a negative handicap at the 10/11 price (the more or less 50/50 probability/price)


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,815 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    EDIT: don't worry about it, this is more suited to the gambling thread.

    Indeed, but I'm quite curious about this so let's go...

    Anyway, I think Sarries and Toulon could both hope for an away win, but for all Toulon's superstars I think Sarries are better placed to achieve it. Toulon's away record in Europe is not remotely impressive.


  • Posts: 13,822 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Northampton
    phog wrote: »
    For a non betting man, what does -3 mean?

    I'm not a betting man but I've always taken as the margin that the team is predicted to win by. Munster at -3 means the most likely outcome is Munster to win by 3 points.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,623 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Ulster
    Many thanks to EPRCRPRCRPCR for choosing this particular image to advertise their Round 1 highlights reel....'Champions Cup comes in with a bang!'


    a0990d81faa996ce1d8df05ef0f510e0.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Leinster
    Paul Rowley, former Munster academy player, starts at 9 for London Welsh tomorrow. He was unlucky to be in the same academy year as one Conor Murray.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,309 ✭✭✭former legend


    Leinster
    Paul Rowley, former Munster academy player, starts at 9 for London Welsh tomorrow. He was unlucky to be in the same academy year as one Conor Murray.

    Even unluckier to have wound up at London Welsh!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Deano7788


    Paul Rowley, former Munster academy player, starts at 9 for London Welsh tomorrow. He was unlucky to be in the same academy year as one Conor Murray.

    He was in the same Munchin's team as Keith Earls and Ger Slattery that won the Munster Senior Cup in 2006. Murray was a year below and was kept on the bench.

    Delighted to see him playing in Europe (even if it is with London Welsh :o), hopefully he'll get some time in the Premiership as well. Always good to see a young player (espeically when you know them since you were 12) taking the opportunity to try to make a go of it in the Championship and then getting picked up by a Premiership team (again, even if it is London Welsh...).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,078 ✭✭✭✭vienne86


    Leinster
    Castres are having a dire season. But last year, they really put it up to Leinster, and we were lucky to come away with a win. They will want to imress their fans on Sunday and given our injuries, they could well turn us over.


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  • Subscribers Posts: 43,259 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Clermont
    vienne86 wrote: »
    Castres are having a dire season. But last year, they really put it up to Leinster, and we were lucky to come away with a win. They will want to imress their fans on Sunday and given our injuries, they could well turn us over.

    agreed

    we're three times champions

    we're a scalp any team would want


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