Nigel Farage MEP

UKIP's power isn't the number of seats they're likely to win, but rather from the prospect that they'll split the conservative vote. The Conservatives have already conceded a lot of ground to their Eurosceptic win to try and prevent it. Though I'm not sure what else they can get apart from the referendum? And Labour winning would kill the referendum anyway.

McDave wrote: »

I'd see our excessive inflation (and it was appallingly high) as further evidence of how we lost control of our macroeconomic policy. It was a clear manifestation of McCreevy's procyclical approach - pump prime any aspect of the economy that he could - stimulate property prices, car purchases, consumer spending, increase PS numbers and their pay, etc., etc.

Of course lower inflation would have probably gone in hand with lower growth too, but I think it's fair to say that lower growth would have prevented the rate of the inflation of our bubble, and at least ameliorated some our problems.

Indeed, and you won't find anyone defending decisions made then, however interest rates are the main policy tool used to curb inflation and they were ill suited for an economy at Ireland's stage of the cycle.

McDave wrote: »

Why I'd say it is a beggar thy neighbour policy is that recourse to QE is creating money and lowering the value of your currency in order to stimulate activity and buying off debt without addressing underlying problems.

Furthermore I'd argue that it only works (and temporarily at that) if certain other economies don't adopt the policy. If everybody adopts the same policy, the effect is cancelled out, and the net effect is a simple all round increase inflation.

That is simply not the aim of QE at all. It's aim is to lower long term interest rates, and it's effect is global as I said, no matter who it is undertaken by. If everybody implements it then long term interest rates fall even more.

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

The financial crisis is far from over. Jesus wept. The EU is barely growing, there is a debt deflationary spiral and the thorny problem of interest rates which can't stay low forever. Kicking the can down the road can't go on forever.

Interest rates will stay low until deflation is no longer a risk.

McDave wrote: »

As for growth, the EU is composed of very different economies at different stages of development. Some economies are doing very well indeed, and have been right through the EZ crisis. Others have goofed up royally, including ourselves. Although deflation is feared, it is not yet an existing phenomenon worth getting worked up about just yet. Indeed, I think we'll see deflation disappear off the agenda once banking union is agreed and investment takes off again. The money is there. It's just not going to be thrown down the drain.

I disagree on banking union. The failure to implement a proper banking union is what I've been most disappointed by in the response to the crisis. The banking resolution fund will be given €55 billion to rescue troubled banks, which wouldn't have even been enough to save Ireland's system let alone anyone else's this time round. By contrast the US were prepared to spend up to $700 billion to rescue their financial sector.

dlouth15 wrote: »

Hmmm. I thought the offficial line was that the Euro crisis was largely fixed and that we had moved from crisis mode.

It was one of the largest and most potentially severe crises in history - "fixed" is a very relative term

We're limping out of it.. slowly. Which, given the alternative, is very good news.

Lastlight. wrote: »

The aim is to win the most seats.

Again, they can't win the most seats in the European Parliament since the entire number of UK seats form a minority within it. And, even with comparable parties of even vaguely similar sentiments from the rest of the EU, they are still hopelessly short of a majority.

Opinion polls in May

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

Stop with the nonsense arguments. They will be considered to have won the European election in the UK if they win within the UK which is the only place they are running in. If Labour do better than UKIP then labour will have been said to have won within the UK. Ditto the conservatives. This is the way it has always been described.

The elections are elections to the European Parliament and UKIP and its allies will be consistently out-voted in the Parliament (when they turn up that is). Hence whether they get fraction x or fraction y of the UK seats is largely irrelevant to the other member states and their MEPs.

Surely instead of looking at there being a lot more UKIP voters in England than Scotland, you should be considering how a party seen as a little England party has managed to do brilliantly is Wales and has an MEP now in Scotland.

youreadthat wrote: »

Surely instead of looking at there being a lot more UKIP voters in England than Scotland, you should be considering how a party seen as a little England party has managed to do brilliantly is Wales and has an MEP now in Scotland.

UKIP got far more air time on TV (Sky, BBC & ITV) than all of the Scottish based parties, some of it was going to stick. It is not a surprise that they got the 6th seat as the polls will show they have been hovering around 10% of the vote. Clearly there is anti EU in Scotland as well but certainly not to the extent as it is in England

I am pretty embarrassed for my homeland. UKIPs policies are dangerous and ill devised, some are downright crazy. With them, Front National in France etc. I can see the EU taking a turn for the worst, I honestly wonder if they will manage to do anything

The bigger worry is that only 35% voted, the rest didn't bother.

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

UKIP got far more air time on TV (Sky, BBC & ITV) than all of the Scottish based parties, some of it was going to stick. It is not a surprise that they got the 6th seat as the polls will show they have been hovering around 10% of the vote. Clearly there is anti EU in Scotland as well but certainly not to the extent as it is in England

Salmond gets a lot of coverage