Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Sunday, 4 May, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, rather warm and humid, a few outbreaks of mostly light rain more frequent near northwest coasts, but also the odd sunny break, with highs generally 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, fog or mist developing, light rain becoming somewhat heavier at times near west coast (5-8 mm possible) with lows 10-12 C.

MONDAY ... Starting out dry in the east but rain advancing from the west to cover most regions by afternoon or early evening. Warm before the rain arrives, afternoon highs near 14 C west to 18 C inland east (could be closer to 16 C east coast due to onshore breezes). A further 5-10 mm rain is likely. Some improvement is possible in western counties by afternoon.

TUESDAY ... Rain tapering to showers after about 10 mm falls, then some sunny intervals, a further interval of showers likely by afternoon or evening, with lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Generally a partly cloudy to overcast period with near normal temperatures, highs about 15-17 C. Some showers each day but also some brighter intervals.

OUTLOOK ... Models are currently showing another muggy, showery frontal system for next weekend, some chance this could shift north over time so we can't say that this pessimistic outlook is locked in yet, even so, temperatures could be into the 17-19 C range in the southeast, 15-17 C elsewhere.

My local weather on Saturday was showery and quite cool compared to last week at about 13 C.

Tuesday, 6 May, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms will develop across the west this morning and spread further east at times, but there may also be some sunny intervals. Highs near 15 C with moderate south to southwest winds gusting to 50 km/hr. Rainfalls around 10 mm on average.

TONIGHT ... Showers, misty at times, lows 5-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, breezy with westerly winds 40-60 km/hr at times, and highs near 14 C. Rainfalls about 3-5 mm.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, warm and humid, showers or periods of rain developing, highs near 17 C. Rainfalls 10-15 mm.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers more isolated, breezy, highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEKEND ... Breezy to windy at times, showers and possible thunderstorms, also some clearer intervals in a strong westerly flow, highs about 15 C Saturday and 13 C Sunday. Potential rainfalls 10-20 mm.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Just slight indications of an improving trend now, with the most likely scenario being a continuation of the unsettled but reasonably mild regime.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with some late sunny breaks that allowed temperatures to recover a little, to about 15 C.

Another outbreak of severe storms will be developing in the plains states and lower Mississippi valley this week.

Thursday, 8 May, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Watch for isolated flooding in south Wicklow and Wexford now to about 1100h, where heavy rain should end later this morning in the southeast, and elsewhere the less intense showers will also begin to clear east, with sunny intervals by mid-day west, afternoon east, and just isolated showers then, mostly in Connacht and west Munster. Feeling rather warm with highs between 15 and 18 C south, 13 to 15 C north.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy intervals, showers or periods of light rain, lows near 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy or windy with gusts to 70 km/hr, and feeling cooler than today with afternoon highs near 14 C.

SATURDAY ... Showers or longer periods of rain, some embedded thunderstorms, and temperatures held down to about 12 C during this rainfall which may amount to 20-30 mm. Some areas could get a bit of clearing by afternoon and this could allow temperatures to reach 14 C. Winds veering from southwest to west-northwest 50-70 km/hr at times, although the stronger winds will be more prolonged around west and south coasts than most other regions, spreading across those areas towards late afternoon.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool and breezy or windy, showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Little change to mid-week with further showers and moderate southwest winds. Highs near 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Past about Wednesday of next week the trend continues to look a little improved over this week, but confidence in this remains moderate at best. Also there is quite a spread in the guidance on how strong the warming signal might be and how long it could last.

Forecasts for Britain

The heavy rain now over southeast Ireland and the Irish Sea will be moving through Wales and the (English) Midlands later today bringing some heavy totals near 30 mm, further south there will be a risk of thunder and highs closer to 19 C. From tonight on, the fast-moving parade of systems will mean that the forecast above will generally apply in Britain if perhaps a few hours later for the details.

Forecasts for North America

A large area of severe storms will develop later today from the northern plains states to the central Gulf states, and some moderate rain or thundershowers will advance ahead of this front into the lower Great Lakes and inland northeast. The warm sector of the system covering most of the eastern U.S. will bring temperatures near 28 C. Dry and warm in a zone behind the severe storms but ahead of colder air advancing out of the central Rockies, strong winds raising blowing dust and fanning range fires in parts of NM, TX, e CO and w KS, OK. ... My local weather on Wednesday was pleasant with sunshine and highs near 18 C. Expecting cloud and showers on Thursday though.

Saturday, 10 May, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT issued for strong winds mainly confined to south coastal counties and parts of west but spreading further inland towards late afternoon. Some exposed locations in the south could see gusts near 100 km/hr.


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, strong winds across southern counties and parts of west coast (SW veering W 60-90 km/hr), generally more moderate elsewhere until late afternoon when the stronger winds could spread inland and to the east coast. Intervals of heavy showers with the risk of a thunderstorm, then a period of steady rain developing by afternoon, about 10-15 mm potential by evening (but despite this, there could be some dry slots). Highs 13-15 C.

Note also that even stronger wind gusts to near 120 km/hr could develop off the south coast and may briefly impact on exposed headlands.

TONIGHT ... Windy with rain tapering to showers, lows near 7 C and gusts to about 80 km/hr in exposed locations.

SUNDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine with passing showers, gusty west to northwest winds (50-80 km/hr), and feeling rather cold, highs 12-14 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, still rather windy at times but not as windy as the weekend. Morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 12-14 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers now more isolated, lows 3-5 C and highs about 13-16 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Finally an improvement to mostly dry, and partly sunny weather, warming up considerably in the south and central counties to allow highs 16-19 C. Any rain or low cloud would likely be confined to northwest coastal fringes.

OUTLOOK ... The warmer dry spell may try to hold on for part of the weekend as somewhat cooler air moves back into the west and north, then a return to rather cool, breezy and unsettled conditions seems likely from current guidance for a day or two, before another slow improving trend. For a change we can speculate that the deteriorating trend may be postponed in forthcoming model runs.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with some sunny breaks and around 14 or 15 C -- our longer term trend is similar in terms of improvement although there's talk of 25 C here by Thursday.

Monday, 12 May, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Light rain will continue across most of Ulster, but some sunshine at times for Connacht and Leinster with scattered showers developing mid-day. Munster will have heavier and possibly thundery showers that could lead to localized flooding. Winds mostly moderate W-NW but could become gusty near coasts and around heavy showers. Highs 13-15 C. Rainfalls near 5 mm in the north, locally 10-15 mm in south but some nearly dry areas central.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, rather chilly with isolated showers, lows 2-6 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers now quite isolated, light to moderate northerly winds with afternoon highs 13-15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals, warmer, except for cloud and drizzle near north coasts. Lows 3-7 C and highs 14-18 C.

THURSDAY ... Hazy sunshine, coastal fog patches, warm inland with highs reaching high teens to near 20 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy west and north, coastal fog and possible isolated showers, sunny east and south, warm. Highs 17-21 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Cloud and some showers will spread in rather slowly from the northwest and may pivot around to cover mainly north and west by Sunday, possibly leaving eastern and some of the southern counties dry, but this remains highly uncertain. Highs would likely range from near 20 C south and east to 15 C north, 18 C west. It may become slightly cooler on Sunday due to increased cloud cover more than any change in air mass.

Most guidance now shows winds gradually backing around to southeast then east during the period. As the warm, dry air expected during the week will not be totally displaced, there is some hope for intervals of reasonably warm partly cloudy conditions to persist, but it's probably equally possible that cloud and light rain will push in far enough to cover most regions. This rather sedate atmospheric duel will continue into the following week and the regime then could be a mixture of passing showery disturbances (moving northwest) and dry intervals,

As that was a rather long outlook, I will just mention that trends in Britain and North America will be similar to what was discussed yesterday, with the severe storms in the central U.S. redeveloping a bit further east each day this week in a slow-moving frontal system. Also, the slow-moving systems expected by next weekend and the following week near Ireland would be quite slow to bring about changes in the developing dry spell over parts of Britain although Scotland is likely to see more cloud and showers.

My local weather on Sunday was pleasantly sunny with a high near 16 C.

Wednesday, 14 May, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy notes: Full moon occurs at 8:16 p.m. IST, or around the time of moonrise this evening. Before that, the Moon will brush past Saturn around 1 p.m. in your time zone -- and in fact the Moon moves in front of Saturn as seen from parts of the southern hemisphere. If you have clear skies tonight, you'll see Saturn to the right of the full Moon.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals developing, scattered drizzly light rain dying out in all but far northern counties. Rather warm and humid, highs 16-18 C south, 13-15 C north.

TONIGHT ... Some cloud and some mist or fog but also intervals of clear hazy skies, mild. Lows 6-10 C.

THURSDAY ... Morning cloud in parts of east, otherwise hazy sunshine, coastal fog patches, warm inland with highs reaching high teens to near 20 C. There could be some readings a little higher than that, if sunshine is able to overcome patchy cloud, with potential for readings near 23 C.

FRIDAY ... Hazy but mostly clear overnight with lows 7-11 C then daytime becoming partly cloudy west and north, coastal fog and possible isolated showers, sunny east and south, warm. Highs 17-21 C and once again possibly as warm as 23 or 24 C.

SATURDAY ... The warm and dry spell should continue in parts of the south while cloud increases across the north and west, with possible showers by late afternoon or evening there. Morning lows 7-11 C and afternoon highs near 21 for most, 15-17 C north.

SUNDAY ... More extensive cloud and outbreaks of light rain, possibly confined to west and north with south coast in low cloud and fog at times, not quite as warm with lows 7-11 C and highs 15-18 C.

OUTLOOK ... We still see some range of solutions for next week but most of them include some rain, heaviest around Tuesday into Wednesday at this point. Winds will likely remain in an east to southeast direction and so it may not cool off much past Sunday, remaining around normal values daytime but mild at night (range of 10-16 C). There could still be some intervals of sunshine in the mix, more likely for the north given the location of low pressure in the Biscay region.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and warm, about 22 C locally and up to 25 C further inland.

Friday, 16 May, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Filtered sunshine through rather extensive high clouds, warm and humid, highs 18-21 C. A few outer coastal headlands will have cooling sea breezes and local fog or drizzle, mainly in the northwest, but even there some locations will be fair and warm. There is a very slight chance of a local shower inland near sea breeze boundaries.

TONIGHT ... Hazy but essentially clear in the south, increasing cloud north with rain developing by morning in coastal districts. Lows 7-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly sunny with thicker cloud at times in the south and east, and continued warm, highs 18-21 C. Cloudy in west and north with light rain moving gradually inland by late afternoon or evening, becoming heavier at times in counties near Donegal Bay where 5-10 mm likely ... highs 15-18 C with this area of rainfall.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, cooler for most, periods of light rain or showers but also some chance of a few dry intervals, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C. Rainfalls rather variable but 5-15 mm on average.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, some fog or mist, rain more confined to south and west, could warm up somewhat in north and east, lows 8-10 C and highs 14-17 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain or heavy showers at times in south, more variable central and north as rather warm air tries to return from east, highs about 14 C in the south but could reach 17-19 C north.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Rain may become heavy in the south, as warm and humid air makes a return from Britain across central and northern counties, highs near 15 C south to 20 C north. Potential for 20-30 mm rainfalls in the south. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms moving west across central and some northern regions.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This disturbed period will probably ease back to partly cloudy, warm weather through the last week of May. Current projections suggest some potential for 22-24 C warmth at times late in the month.

Will update other forecasts tomorrow, as comments yesterday remain valid ... my local weather on Thursday was quite summer-like, despite a rather thick altostratus overcast, some sunshine got through at times and it reached 25 C.

Sunday, 18 May, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain will continue its slow eastward drift but may not fully overspread all parts of the east until about noon, which will allow highs there to reach 15-17 C. Further west, some dry intervals will follow the initial 5-10 mm rainfall band, with highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... The rain will gradually become more drizzly with fog and mist developing, although a few clear intervals might prevail inland west, so that lows there will be 6-9 C but elsewhere 10-12 C.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain could once again become heavy, most likely in western counties, elsewhere, showers, warm and humid with risk of a thunderstorm. Rainfalls 5-15 mm. Lows 10-13 C and highs 16-19 C.

TUESDAY ... Further showers, isolated thunderstorms, warm and humid, especially central, inland north and west. Lows 11-14 C and highs 17-19 C. Rain likely heaviest in Munster with 20-30 mm potential in west, spot flooding could develop. Elsewhere amounts generally 10-15 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, warm, humid with outbreaks of showery rain, lows around 12 C and highs around 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, rain or drizzle at times, also some sunny breaks, possibly turning slightly cooler in western regions, lows near 11 C and highs around 15-16 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C.

OUTLOOK ... The unsettled spell could trend slowly towards very warm and dry weather in a southeast to east flow, but details are far from certain. The models have a lot of weak disturbances and associated low-level moisture hanging around but sometimes these types of outlook patterns get overwhelmed by fairly subtle pressure rises which are evident as a trend. There will be potential for temperatures to rise into the 20s during the last week of May.

Note that today in southern England will continue warm and dry, the rain is moving equally slowly southward across north-central Britain and may not make it much further than a central Wales to Yorkshire line before dissipating into scattered drizzly showers tomorrow. Also it is likely to be considerably warmer at times in southeast England all week (22-24 C at times).

My local weather on Saturday was partly to mostly cloudy but enough sun got through to make it feel reasonably warm at 18 C.

Tuesday, 20 May, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for heavy rainfalls spreading west across the country, 15-30 mm for most of Leinster and Ulster, 20-40 mm for much of Connacht and Munster. Heaviest rainfalls will be around east and south facing slopes of higher terrain but local spot flooding is possible in other locations as heavy thunderstorms could be embedded in the rainfall system. Most of this rainfall will occur during afternoon and evening although it may start as early as 0800h in Wicklow. (scattered showers further west now are not part of the system and should die out before it arrives).

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms, see alert above for details. Highs near 16 C, feeling rather warm and very humid. Rainfalls 15-30 mm east, 20-40 mm west. Winds E 20-40 km/hr except NNE backing to W in Kerry and Cork.

TONIGHT ... Fog and drizzle for most regions except for western counties where the heavy rain may continue past midnight, lows 9-12 C. Some heavy thunderstorms could continue near the Atlantic coasts.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, heavy showers or isolated thunderstorms with hail developing, much less widespread than today but where they happen, about as heavy, isolated flash flooding may occur with these ... central counties are somewhat more at risk ... highs 14-17 C. Winds will return to a southerly direction then back to easterly by late in the day.

THURSDAY ... After a foggy start, some sunshine could develop, with more scattered showers or outbreaks of rain in a light northeast wind flow, about 5 to 10 mm rain for most, morning lows 8-10 C and afternoon highs 14-16 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and risk of a thunderstorm, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C. Some chance of a steady rainfall in northern counties with stronger northeast winds there.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Although it will continue rather cloudy and unsettled at times in a northeast flow, a slightly improving trend is likely with a bit more sunshine each day and temperatures remaining in the 14-17 C range.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Guidance is very scattered past this weekend, the most likely outcome is a gradual drying trend with higher pressure building up over the region and a warm temperature regime.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Outbreaks of thundery rain will edge further east with each outbreak moving north then northwest in waves. Highs near 22 C east, and around 17 C west. Some heavy rainfalls likely from south central England through west Midlands, Wales, northwest England and southwest Scotland.

The rest of the week will remain rather unsettled and muggy with highs not far from 20 C in most areas. Some further heavy rains are likely and any sunshine will boost temperatures in the southeast to near 24 C.


Forecasts for North America

Very warm to hot in most of the southern half of the U.S. with thunderstorms moving east from central plains states into Midwest, Ohio valley, lower Great Lakes and (by tonight) inland northeast and mid-Atlantic states. Highs in the warmer air mass 29-33 C. About 15 C north of the fronts. Some outbreaks of heavy rain over the Rockies as far north as central Alberta, slow improvement along the west coast as clouds break. ... My local weather on (holiday) Monday was cloudy with light showers, little accumulation, and around 16 C.

Thursday, 22 May, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


No alert, just a heads up for parts of the southeast that heavy rain could brush past tonight and Friday and extend some distance inland into Wexford and south Wicklow. There's potential for 20-30 mm rain but this may remain offshore while 10-20 mm falls on land. Rainfall over the far west will likely fall into that same general category.

TODAY ... A "squeeze" situation for the east, as a band of light to moderate rain over western counties remains fairly stationary, while rain over Britain edges west to approach the east coast tonight. It could stay dry most if not all of the day in some parts of Leinster and east Munster, possibly even central Ulster and inland Connacht. Rain will be intermittent and reach 10-15 mm amounts near the west coast in a raw north to northeast wind 30-50 km/hr (but stronger on exposed coasts and over the near Atlantic, gusts to 80 km/hr there). Highs only 11-13 C for this part of Ireland, but further east, cloudy with sunny breaks, and highs 14-16 C, with risk of an isolated thunderstorm near higher terrain (the northeast side of mountains will be most likely to see activity).

TONIGHT ... Rain will edge closer to the east coast and may become heavy after midnight in parts of Wexford and south Wicklow. Light ro moderate rain could extend a little further west and all the way north to east Ulster. Amounts will be 5-10 mm for most in this zone. It could stay dry in some central counties (north to south) but will continue to be wet near the west coast as a further 10-15 mm rain falls there, in gusty N winds. Lows for most 7-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Heavy rain or thunderstorms possible at times in the southeast, trending to light rain a little further west, still a wedge of dry air caught between this system and the decaying remnants of the west coastal rainfall band which will degenerate into drizzle by afternoon. Cool in gusty north to northeast winds. Highs 12-15 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few breaks, bands of moderate rainfall may develop from east Ulster into central counties and east Munster. One or two could develop further into thunderstorms, moving south to southwest, with hail possible. Better chances for sunshine in the far northwest. Lows 5-8 C and highs 12-16 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, more isolated showers and risk of a brief thundershower. Lows 5-7 C and highs 13-17 C.

OUTLOOK ... Guidance continues a little scattered but the more reliable models seem to be trending more to dry than unsettled and so we might expect at least an equal mixture of cloud and sunshine and just isolated showers at worst. There's likely to be some sunny days mid-week, highs will start out around 18 C and rise a little by mid-week into the 20-21 C range inland. Nights will be rather cool with lows 4-7 C in rural areas, 7-9 C in urban and coastal regions.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY and FRIDAY will become very unsettled with heavy rainfalls over much of England and Wales, moderate showers extending into parts of Scotland although some dry areas there. Highs only 15-18 C in contrast to the hot weather earlier in the week, but mild nights near 12 C. The cooler air located over western Ireland will only reach Britain indirectly over the weekend as it mixes into a decaying area of low pressure. This will have the effect of setting off heavy thunderstorms in parts of the Midlands and south central England. An improving trend will follow next week.


Forecasts for North America

Hot and dry in the southern states, scattered thunderstorms in the central plains and heavy rainfalls with embedded thunderstorms in parts of the east central states. North of this complex, rather chilly in east winds flowing out of higher pressure over Quebec and northern Ontario where it will be cold enough at night for some frosts. Rather warm in most of the west although close to normal ... my local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy and pleasantly warm at 21 C.

Friday, 23 May, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some light rain will continue to fall intermittently in western counties with moderate northerly winds gusting to 50 km/hr, highs near 13 C. From central Ulster south to east Munster, longer intervals of dry weather and even some sunshine, but risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms developing later, highs 14-16 C. The east coast counties will soon have rain with a few embedded thundershowers, and moderate NE winds 40-60 km/hr. A few upslope areas in north Wexford, Wicklow and south Dublin could see 20-30 mm rainfalls, otherwise about 10-20 mm will fall in the east by evening time. Highs will reach 13-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming more widespread in moderate NE winds 40-60 km/hr, lows 8-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Rain becoming more showery and breaking into scattered bands with some partly cloudy skies between bands, still the risk of locally heavy rainfall 15-20 mm in some parts of the east-central to south coast counties. Highs about 14-16 C but feeling rather cool due to gusty N-NE winds.

SUNDAY ... Not much change although perhaps a better mixture of sunshine and cloud with somewhat less widespread shower activity, still some risk of a thunderstorm, winds continuing to oscillate from NE to NNW with passing weak trough features, lows 7-10 C and highs 14-16 C. Average rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, chance of thunder, lows 5-8 C and highs 14-17 C. Average rainfalls just 2-5 mm.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Somewhat improved with longer dry intervals and just isolated showers in light northeast winds, lows 4-7 C and highs 15-20 C with the warmer readings in west Munster and south Connacht.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Higher chance of showers returning later in the week with daytime temperatures remaining around seasonal normals in 17-19 C range.

Will update other forecasts tomorrow -- my local weather on Thursday was cloudy and warm, with showers slowly approaching from the west but first onset of rain delayed to about sunset, in other words, a perfect golfing day (not that I golfed).

Sunday, 25 May, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, with a north-south band of rain drifting west, leading to some heavier thundery showers by afternoon in west-central counties, also a second band of rain likely to move into Leinster and east Ulster around mid-day. Some local rainfalls of 10-15 mm but the average amount more like 3-5 mm. Highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Misty or foggy after skies begin to clear, isolated showers dying out in most areas. Lows 6-9 C.

MONDAY ... Fog or mist lifting to allow for some morning sunny intervals, becoming partly to mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing, and highs around 17 C.

TUESDAY ... Longer dry intervals and sunny breaks, but still a few clusters of showers likely, rather humid, lows around 8 C and highs around 18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and a few thunderstorms moving west, some risk of severe storms developing in south Connacht and parts of west Munster. Lows near 10 C and highs near 19 or 20 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Slightly less humid and more settled but staying rather cloudy with isolated showers, highs near 20 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Warm to start, highs around 22 C on Saturday, then increasing cloud with showers and thunderstorms developing by about Sunday into Monday (1-2 June) and turning cooler (highs 15-17 C).

Just a couple of notes on other forecasts -- Britain will be seeing about the same sort of gradual warming trend with a gradual if slight reduction in the frequency of rain through the week. Highs will be about 18 C to mid-week and into the lower or even mid 20s later in the week, as winds become generally east to southeast.

In North America, temperatures have warmed to above normal 24-28 C in the east, Great Lakes and Midwest, and near 30 C in the southeast which is close to normal there. Showers and thunderstorms are becoming widespread in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, eastern Colorado and Wyoming. My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy with a rather cool southeast wind and highs near 17 C.

Tuesday, 27 May, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Morning mist or fog lifting, then some sunny intervals, a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing, most likely west-central counties and some inland parts of Leinster, rather warm and humid with highs about 17-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Becoming mainly cloudy, misty and humid, lows 7-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, chance of some steady rain developing in east but also risk of heavy thunderstorms developing in parts of the south-central and inland western counties. Highs about 17-20 C, warmer in west and central counties, temperatures could fall to 13-15 C in any sporadic rainfall during afternoon, especially from Dublin north to east Ulster. This may hold off until evening but sea breezes will cool these regions before the rain arrives.

THURSDAY ... Remnant showers or thunderstorms becoming more confined to west and north, but some may redevelop to become heavy, warm and quite humid with lows near 11 C and highs around 20 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, some better sunny intervals for most, just isolated showers if any, lows 8-12 C and highs 19-22 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, warm, rain likely by evening in west. Lows around 10 C and highs around 23 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, becoming breezy (SW to W 30-50 km/hr) with showers and risk of a thunderstorm, turning cooler. Lows 9-12 C and highs about 16 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, showers in some western counties. Rather cool with lows 7-9 C and highs near 15 C.


Forecasts for Britain

Frequent showers will turn to heavy rainfall in some central regions later today, highs 15-17 C. Rain will continue through much of tomorrow and after that, showers gradually less widespread, then some sunny intervals by the weekend. Highs reaching the low 20s at times by then.


Forecasts for North America

Staying very warm in the east but more widespread showers and thunderstorms developing, highs 25-28 C for most of the eastern states. Sunny and hot in most of the west, outbreaks of showers or thundershowers near the Canadian border and into parts of western Canada. ... My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy to start, sunny by afternoon, with highs about 18 C.

Thursday, 29 May, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Light rain at times in Ulster and north Leinster, should begin to fragment to patchy showers with 3-5 mm totals, while other regions have a dry start with some sun getting through mid-level cloud in places, eventually leading to some showers and risk of an isolated thunderstorm in parts of Connacht and Munster. Highs around 15 C north, to 18 C inland west and south.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, light showers at times in north. Lows 5-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Mixture of cloud and sun, some remnant showers and risk of an isolated heavy thunderstorm inland south. Generally cloudy but dry further north, with highs 15-18 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, warm or very warm especially away from cooling sea breezes. Risk of isolated showers or brief thundershowers developing inland west by late in the day. Lows 7-10 C and highs 19-23 C.

SUNDAY ... Some morning sunshine in east, generally warm and humid at first with showers and risk of a thunderstorm, then turning cooler during the afternoon or evening, at least in western and northern counties, morning lows about 12 C and afternoon highs about 17 to 19 C west, 19 to 21 C east.

MONDAY ... Morning showers but some clearing later, fresher and considerably cooler with lows 7-9 C and highs 15-17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rain at times, near normal temperatures during the first few days of June although around mid-week it may fall below normal in western regions with highs only 13-15 C. It may then become quite warm and unsettled leading to thunderstorms towards the second week of June.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast but rain only arrived after sunset with about 3-4 mm since then. Some heavy thunderstorms with hail were reported further inland, nothing like that locally.

Saturday, 31 May, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland (summer outlook added)


A rather abbreviated daily forecast today, partly because there are no large changes in outlook, but also to make space for a summer outlook (at the end of the text).

TODAY will be warm and dry for just about all parts of Ireland and Britain, with the sun breaking through somewhat stubborn low cloud during the morning and where it persists, temperatures should easily reach 21-23 C. Longer cloudy intervals will be accompanied by a high of about 18 or 19 C.

TONIGHT and SUNDAY, rain slowly spreads east across western and central Ireland but may take most of the day to reach all of Leinster. It will remain rather warm, lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C.

MONDAY will continue this slow cooling trend with further showers, highs near 17 C. From TUESDAY to end of the week, it looks rather wet as low pressure will be moving around in a slow counter-clockwise loop over Britain and back into Ireland. This will have the effect of turning winds from northerly back to southerly as the week progresses, so that mid-week will be a little cooler than the more humid end of the week.

(My local weather was sunny and warm, high of 21 C)

Now on to the interesting part ...

Summer 2014 Outlook based on my own research methods but I have to say that this seems to be a fairly widespread "take" on the type of summer ahead for Ireland as well as most of Britain ... as stated above, June will begin rather unsettled and could become wet enough to double the normal amounts of rainfall. This poor start to the three months may not be the end of the story, as slight improvements can be expected each month -- later in June and into much of July, look for fairly average conditions with perhaps a touch more cloud than normal, and temperatures possibly slightly above normal. Then August (as well as parts of late July) may become quite hot and sunny but this could lead to severe storms as there is likely to be considerable moisture available for fueling evaporation and loading up warm air masses for later thunderstorms. So it's a mixed bag at best with some reasonably good weather later in the summer, and if you enjoy storms, this may be a better than average summer in that regard.

Tuesday, 3 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some sunny intervals this morning in eastern counties, as cloud and then showers develop further west. There could be one or two heavy showers or thunderstorms by early afternoon in western counties, some of this activity could survive to early evening across the east, but it looks rather disorganized and hit or miss in terms of probability of any given location seeing more than about 5-10 mm. Highs will be generally around 16-17 C. Sometimes a little breezy from the west with gusts near some heavier showers reaching 50-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Further showers but a slow clearing trend, becoming misty in coastal areas, lows 7-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud with some heavy showers and possible thunderstorms with hail, most likely in Connacht, west Munster and midlands, but again quite variable in rainfalls, 3-15 mm range. Highs only 13-16 C and feeling rather chilly especially in occasional strong wind gusts to 70 km/hr from a westerly direction.

THURSDAY ... Some early morning clearing could allow temperatures to drop as low as 4-7 C then increasing cloud during the day, scattered light rain may develop near Munster coasts by evening. Highs 13-16 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, intervals of heavy rain developing, moving north across all regions, with some embedded thunderstorms. Lows 7-9 C and highs 13-16 C except 16-19 C in west Munster. Rainfall potential 20-30 mm. Strong winds may develop especially around Cork, Waterford, Wexford, Wicklow and Dublin coastal regions, E-SE 50-80 km/hr. Other regions will see winds about 40-60 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Warmer and quite humid with showers and risk of thunder, moderate southerly winds, coastal fog in south. Lows 10-12 C and highs about 17-19 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, warm and humid, lows 11-13 C and highs about 18 C.

OUTLOOK ... Next week is currently looking a bit warmer at first and possibly a lot warmer towards the end of the week with a drying trend after some rather persistent showers at first. Highs could reach the low or even mid 20s eventually but could be held down by somewhat stubborn lower cloud in some regions.

Forecasts for Britain

The trend will be similar in most respects, but the warmer push this weekend will bring hot, unstable air into play for southeast England and some heavy storms are possible at times in the Midlands and south central, southeast England. Further west it will be more similar to Ireland with persistent but less severe showers. Next week appears likely to be quite warm but with some very unsettled conditions at times.

Forecasts for North America

Continued warm but unsettled over much of the east, as a strong outbreak of severe storms develops in Kansas and Nebraska, as near 40 C heat pushes out of Texas into parts of Oklahoma. Storm chase reports should be quite active by late in the afternoon (evening Irish or U.K. times). ... My local weather continues quite pleasant with sunshine and around 20 C in a moderate sea breeze regime on Monday.

Thursday, 5 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfalls on Friday in parts of Munster, 25-40 mm rain possible around Cork and Limerick. Spot flooding may develop by late afternoon or evening. Heavy thunderstorms are possible Friday night and Saturday in east-central regions.


TODAY ... Some sunshine at first, then mid-level cloud becoming fairly widespread, highs only reaching 13-16 C at best.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy but remaining dry except for some light rain near south and west coasts. Lows 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, intervals of heavy rain developing, moving north across all regions, with some embedded thunderstorms, with highs 13-16 C except by late afternoon 16-19 C in west Munster. Rainfall potential 20-30 mm and possibly a bit higher in the Cork and Limerick regions, local flooding possible there, some embedded thunderstorms possible. Strong winds may develop especially around Cork, Waterford, Wexford, Wicklow and Dublin coastal regions, E-SE 50-80 km/hr. Other regions will see winds about 40-60 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Warmer and quite humid with showers and risk of thunder, moderate southerly winds, coastal fog in south. Lows 10-12 C and highs about 17-19 C. Some risk of severe storms for portions of Ulster, Leinster and nearby portions of Connacht, east Munster (the risk is considerably greater however in Britain).

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, and risk of locally heavy thunderstorms, warm and humid, lows 11-13 C and highs about 18 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Further showers or thunderstorms, warm and very humid, highs near 20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The mid-week outlook has shifted to a less volatile if slightly unsettled southwesterly flow that would see temperatures near normal or slightly above, 18-21 C.

Will update the forecasts for Britain and North America on Friday, still watching the potential for severe storms in parts of England on Saturday and again during the week. The latest guidance is probably not quite as warm as the main core of heat stays to the east of the North Sea most of the week but as this guidance keeps changing I think the most likely outcome is for one or two incursions of heat setting off heavy storms at times. Meanwhile, my local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy to sunny with highs 18-20 C in a strong sea breeze.

Saturday, 7 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Further outbreaks of thundery rain will drift north into Ulster where some locally heavy falls are likely, in particular during late morning hours. Some hazy sunshine will follow but this will give way to another interval of showers and isolated thunderstorms reaching Leinster during the mid-day to afternoon hours. Highs 18-20 C.

TONIGHT ... Muggy with showers or thunderstorms developing, lows near 13.

SUNDAY ... Warm and humid, scattered thunderstorms likely. Morning lows about 13 C and afternoon highs 18-20 C. Winds southerly 30-50 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, warm and humid, scattered showers and risk of a thunderstorm, lows near 13 C and highs near 19 or 20 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers more isolated and some places remaining dry, but risk of coastal fog or low cloud. Lows near 11 C and highs near 21 C inland.

OUTLOOK ... Some sunny intervals inland, low cloud and fog prevalent near some coasts, warm with highs reaching 21-23 C later in the week. Some guidance suggests a fairly prolonged dry spell with temperatures fairly warm in most regions, although likely to be held down in some coastal areas by sea breezes and/or drifting fog banks.

The comments from yesterday's forecasts (Britain and North America) remain generally valid, expect some heavy showers or even severe storms if travelling to England or Wales today, tomorrow or early next week. My local weather on Friday was another sunny and fairly warm day (21 C).

Monday, 9 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, warm and humid, occasional showers with some thunder, more frequent in west. Rainfalls 10-15 mm west, 5-10 mm east. Highs 17-20 C. Moderate southerly winds becoming quite gusty at times by late afternoon in Munster.

TONIGHT ... Breezy (windy south coast) and very humid, remaining quite warm, with frequent showers or periods of rain and some embedded thunder, lows 12-15 C. Winds gusting to 70 km/hr at times near south coast. A further 10-15 mm rain likely.

TUESDAY ... Morning showers, thunderstorms, followed by gradual clearing from southwest. About 10-15 mm rain likely, accumulations over 24-36h could lead to high stream levels and some flooding. Sunshine may spread into parts of Munster by late afternoon, evening. Highs 17-19 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals, quite warm, lows 9-13 C and highs 18-22 C. Showers likely near west coast by late afternoon or evening.

THURSDAY ... Sunny with cloudy periods in some eastern and southern counties while showers or periods of light rain spread across the north. Warm especially in the inland southeast, highs 21-24 C there, otherwise 17-20 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers becoming more frequent by late in the day as southerly winds shift more westerly, lows 8-11 C and highs about 18-22 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy, near normal temperatures with highs about 18-20 C. Slight chance of showers near Donegal Bay and other northwest coasts.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The model guidance for the second half of June is generally quite encouraging in terms of settled weather, warmth and at least some sunshine. It looks a little closer to 20 C than 25 C for daytime highs during most of the period but seems likely to fluctuate in that range (would say 18-25 C more likely) most of the time. Not necessarily bone dry but high pressure prevails much of the time.

Forecasts for Britain will follow a very similar agenda although later today southeast England could import some hefty thunderstorms from France. There may be some relatively cool days in Britain after mid-month as more of a surface northerly flow develops there, with Ireland closer to an Atlantic ridge. In North America, the general theme is relatively warm with a distinct (and wet) frontal boundary across the inland southeast and part of the mid-Atlantic states. Turning very hot in the plains states ahead of strong low pressure over the northern Rockies near the Canadian border, so some heavy storms likely up that way. My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy and about 20 C with more of a sea breeze than previous days.

Wednesday, 11 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Hazy sunshine for many eastern and southern parts of Ireland, turning quite warm with highs 18-21 C. More cloud likely west and north, fog or mist slower to clear but also some sunny intervals by afternoon, coastal drizzle in some places, highs 16-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Hazy clear skies at first, then cloudy or misty, lows 6-10 C.

THURSDAY ... Hazy sunshine, warm inland (20-24 C) again in most eastern and southern counties although may remain overcast near south coast (17C), cloudy at times in west and north, occasional light rain (16-19 C).

FRIDAY ... After another misty but otherwise clear night with lows 7-11C, the day will become partly cloudy, warm, light rain in parts of north, sunshine elsewhere with highs 20-24 C.

SATURDAY to MIDWEEK will bring a period of settled and generally warm weather with better chances for very warm sunshine in east and south, but some intervals of warmth near west and north coasts too, despite more frequent low cloud and sea fog in places. Highs as a result will range from near 17 C in west and north coast locations to 22-24 C in some parts of the inland south and east. Saturday may not be quite that warm as a very slight infusion of cooler air will accompany the higher pressure but this will quickly be modified by warmer air mixing down.

LONGER TERM OUTLOOK calls for this warm and dry spell to change very slowly due to more of an easterly wind flow later in the week, which will have the effect of making the east coast relatively cool and the rest of the country warm. Highest temperatures could edge up to mid 20s and possibly 27 C in favoured locations. Eventually a more normal and slightly unsettled pattern will return but possibly not for two weeks or longer.

More details on Britain and North America will follow tomorrow, for now just note that similar trends will develop in Britain although with a somewhat deeper cooling influence at times from the colder (and larger) North Sea, especially when winds turn more northerly on Saturday and from then on -- meanwhile in North America, rain is moving slowly further east and will affect the cities on the east coast later today and tonight, with some heavy falls expected today in the Ohio valley and parts of the lower Great Lakes. My local weather turned cloudy for a change on Tuesday and there was even a bit of rain (for the first time in two weeks or so), with highs held down to about 19 C.


(advance note -- full moon takes place on Thursday night, the exact time is 0511h (IST) Friday 13th).

Friday, 13 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy aside from some brief sunny intervals in parts of the south, with occasional showers in northern counties, sometimes rather heavy near Donegal Bay this morning then across Ulster mid-day and afternoon. Some parts of the south will remain dry and in between just a few sprinkles of light rain that might not interfere with most outdoor activities. Quite warm with highs 18-22 C. Rainfalls of 3-7 mm on average in the north.

TONIGHT ... A few more rather light showers becoming increasingly confined to east Ulster and north Leinster, otherwise, cloudy with a few clear intervals, and lows 8-12 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloud may be a bit slow to break in east Ulster and north Leinster but showers will be very isolated then will likely evaporate, as sunshine becomes more prevalent everywhere, with the possible exception of a few coastal spots in the far north under low cloud. For most then it should be a warm day with a cooling sea breeze within 5-10 km of the coasts. Otherwise winds will be quite light but generally northerly. Highs 18-22 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny with just a few isolated cloudy intervals near some coasts, quite possible that the whole day will be sunny in most areas. Morning lows about 7-10 C but that will be long before most people get up, so around 17 C for your morning activities and 20-24 C by mid-day and afternoon.

MONDAY to THURSDAY ... Continuing very pleasant, sunny and warm, with sea breezes becoming a little stronger during the period especially near the Irish Sea coasts, but their cooling effects will be quite localized. Highs for central and western counties, apart from some outer coastal headlands and islands, will be 21-25 C. Closer to the sea, expect 18-22 C. Overnight lows will range from 7 to 11 C mostly, and will vary more by urban-rural location than by region. Light to moderate east winds will develop. One or two thunderstorms could be found in parts of west Munster and south Connacht towards the end of the week, but they might be rather isolated.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The warm dry spell could last well beyond this coming week as guidance is rather inconclusive about any really well-defined changes in the location of this rather persistent high. The possibilities for the last third of June range from a return to somewhat more average conditions to an even warmer heat wave set-up. It may be a case of this high weakening slightly and reinforcing after a very subtle cooling trend. (I said it would improve in the summer outlook, but this is probably more rapid improvement, hope it doesn't overdo itself).

Britain will enjoy very similar trends with the usual larger variations near the North Sea and more frequent rain in Scotland. I doubt that water shortages would become an issue for quite some time given the above normal rainfall during the past winter and spring. However there is some chance of a scorching period that might affect parts of Ireland too.

In North America, the east remains close to normal while the west is very warm but active weather is developing in Montana and Idaho, as well as nearby parts of western Canada, with severe storm potential later today in central Montana and northwest Wyoming, eastern Idaho. My local weather was partly sunny and pleasant with a high of 21 C on Thursday.

The weather across Brazil seems fairly placid in most locations, by southern hemisphere winter standards, the far south of the country is rather mild but there's a cold front approaching. I learned during the coverage today that it snowed in 1930 during the first World Cup held in Uruguay. If they were playing there tomorrow it would be raining and about 10-15 C. But only the very far south of Brazil will see anything like that, otherwise a strong high out in the Atlantic is pulling in warm, dry air from the northwest. There's a few tropical thunderstorms moving west each day through the Amazon basin but even there most places are hot and dry.

Sunday, 15 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny and warm in most parts, but some stubborn cloud may persist for at least the morning in north Leinster, parts of Ulster. Isolated showers are possible mid-day near Donegal Bay. It will feel rather humid with highs 21-24 C (except 18-21 C in a few places near east or north coasts), and light winds that could become moderate N-NE in some coastal areas.

TONIGHT ... Generally clear and warm but some patchy sea fog or low cloud, drizzle near north and east coasts. Lows 10-13 C.

MONDAY ... Little change with very warm sunshine for most, isolated low cloud or sea fog near east and north coasts, conditions rather variable within a few kilometres of the coast. Highs generally 22-26 C but 18-21 C in parts of Leinster and Ulster.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... Hazy sunshine and very warm with isolated mid-day showers possible inland west. Lows 9-13 C and highs 22-26 C for most, 17-21 C near east and north coasts.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Turning gradually cooler from north to south, highs generally near 20 C at first then 15-18 C by Sunday, fresh northwest to north winds developing, skies partly cloudy to overcast at times, and a few isolated showers although remaining dry for many.

Britain will have similar trends although the influence of the North Sea will be much more extensive with the eastern half of Britain cooled by northeast breezes and considerable cloud drifting inland, so the best weather in Britain is likely to be in parts of Wales, western Scotland and northwest England, also parts of the Severn valley and around Somerset. London will generally remain in near normal temperatures and partly to mostly cloudy skies with one or two days a bit cloudier. Meanwhile, today in ITALY there will be an outbreak of severe storms with Rome and Tuscany most at risk. ... In North America the east coast is warm and dry, the central plains states will have another outbreak of severe storms, and less severe but widespread thunderstorms will move gradually northeast from the lower Mississippi valley. The U.S. Open golf event should have mostly dry conditions but could see the onset of this unsettled weather towards the end of the day, but if a playoff were needed on Monday that could have weather problems. ... My local weather on Saturday was damp and rather cool with a low cloud base, highs near 15 C.

Tuesday, 17 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Most places will enjoy sunny and very warm weather with light to moderate northeast breezes. The far north may see more cloud and some fog close to outer headlands. Highs for most locations 22-26 C but 18-22 C within 5-10 km of the Irish Sea and 14-17 C near north coasts.

TONIGHT ... Clear although rather hazy at times, mild. Lows 12-15 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue very similar with the slight increase in risk of an isolated thunderstorm in west Munster and possibly south Connacht. Even there, the chances will be slight, and highs will remain in the mid 20s for most, although 18-22 C east coast. Breezes may increase from northeast which may allow the cooling effects of the sea breeze to reach somewhat further inland especially to the north of Dublin (to the south, topography inhibits the sea breeze, and some parts of the city repel sea breezes by urban heating). Nights will remain mostly clear and mild, 11-14 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY are currently looking just a little cooler for most, as the offshore high will not be entirely removed but typical highs will come down a few degrees into the 18-22 C range, with some coastal areas 16-18 C in moderate northeast winds. There will continue to be a few isolated showers and a general increase in onshore low cloud and light showers in parts of Ulster and later in north Leinster.

Britain is dealing with more cloud thanks to the cooler North Sea and temperatures are generally in the 17-20 C range with the warmest spots in Wales and western England. This trend will continue although cloud amounts will be variable and one or two showers could come and go during mid-week.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy in the morning and sunny by afternoon with highs near 20 C. Heavy rain has developed inland and into Alberta and this will continue today and possibly tomorrow. Severe storms continue further east into the upper Midwest.

Wednesday, 18 June, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Very warm or even hot sunny weather will be widespread across the south and central counties, with some slight cooling near the east coast and also spreading into Mayo and western Galway as winds will be somewhat more northerly allowing a sea breeze to set in. The south coast on the other hand will probably be almost the hottest area as the sea breeze will be suppressed there (noticeable perhaps on outer headlands and islands). So, highs could be very close to 30 C in the sun, and definitely well into the high 20s for many, trending to about 22-25 C east coast. However, cloud and considerably cooler temperatures could push into some parts of Ulster, and remnants could spill out into north Leinster and some parts of north Connacht at times, with quite a drop in temperature where the cloud arrives (to 18-22 C). One or two thunderstorms may develop along a sea breeze boundary likely to set up north-south near Galway and Shannon into parts of Cork. Watch for updates.

TONIGHT ... Clear and very mild to warm for most, cloudy and mild in parts of Ulster and in a few isolated coastal spots, foggy. Lows 12-16 C.

THURSDAY ... Little if any change although this northern cloud is probably going to reposition slightly further south, so that one or two locations around Westmeath and Roscommon could cool off a bit, otherwise most places will probably repeat their highs from today within 2-3 deg, so generally 25-30 C for most, 18-23 C north, 22-26 C east coast and some parts of outer west coast. Once again, there could be an isolated but potentially heavy thunderstorm or two in Cork, Limerick, Clare, Galway, Mayo and nearby portions of other counties. These would be brief and quite isolated.

FRIDAY ... Only a slight cooling trend is likely, confined to about 2-3 deg at most, so still quite warm and sunny for most, cloudy intervals in the north, highs ranging from 27-29 C south and central to 21-24 C north and east. Slight risk of a thunderstorm continues although likely more for west Munster than parts of Connacht.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Some models are showing very slight cooling now, and could support 23-26 C highs but the European model continues to bring in a more significant cooling to about 21-23 C, which would probably imply about an equal mixture of cloud and sunshine for most, and cooler cloudy conditions in parts of Ulster (15-19 C) with the risk of a few showers there. Once again, the average of these model depictions might be the best call (22-24 C with about ten hours of sunshine each day for most, cloudy in the north, isolated showers).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... If it does cool off a bit over the weekend, it now looks likely to warm up to about 25-27 C on Monday, but some scenarios would just say continuing around that level into Monday ... then after that, a slow cooling trend is indicated, whether this gets pushed back or not remains to be seen. I expect a much more active regime near the end of the month, then perhaps a reset of these warm to hot conditions in July.

Forecasts for Britain would be generally somewhat cooler and cloudier although settled and in some western regions quite warm (22-25 C), and there will probably be one or two days where enough sunshine breaks through to produce 25-27 C highs in places. But as with the early June warm spell last summer, Ireland looks set to do better with this first hot spell of the summer.

In North America the severe storm outbreak has spread east, in fact there was a rather strong tornado north of Toronto on Tuesday. Today, these storms will redevelop along a now stationary front in Ohio, PA and NY. Further severe storms will erupt as a new front spills over the Rockies. It was very cool behind that front on Tuesday, in fact, Salt Lake City Utah had a high of only 10 deg (the normal there is 29 C) with rain most of the day. Further south they endured very strong southwest winds in tinder dry conditions over the plateau regions north of Phoenix and around the Grand Canyon, so near hurricane force gusts in places and 30-35 C elevating the fire risk. My local weather (in the cooler air mass) was sunny and near 17 C. We did not have much wind at any point during the changeover past two days but very heavy rains are falling to the east of the Rockies in southern Alberta.