Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 23-12-2010 08:17AM

Thursday, 23 December, 2010
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Very cold weather will continue until about the end of the night between Christmas and St Stephen's Day. Then it will gradually be replaced by somewhat milder weather but with rather messy results. Readers should be aware that there is major uncertainty in the forecast because all the various models give totally different outcomes after five days, which range from the cold hanging on and deflecting the push of milder air, to an all-out onslaught of very mild, wet weather that would thaw all the snow. My personal hunch (and this is confirmed to some extent by my research) is that the cold will prove more difficult to move than most models are showing tonight. But I will give you some probabilities of different outcomes in the extended range. There is much better agreement on the first three days.

TODAY ... Snow showers, heavy in a few places, will continue in coastal parts of Meath, Dublin and Wicklow, as well as a few parts of Wexford. Later, one or two of these could make longer forays inland. Amounts will be highly variable but mostly between 5 and 20 cms. However, almost all of the country outside of that small area (with many people) will be dry with considerable sunshine once any ice fog dissipates (which it may not do everywhere). Highs therefore will range from about -6 C in ice fog to -3 C in sunshine and possibly -1 C near the coasts where winds may be stronger from the northeast at 15-30 mph at times.

TONIGHT ... Widespread clearing, snow showers becoming just light flurries then ending on the east coast, and exceptionally cold in many places, with lows reaching -15 C and possibly lower over large sections of Ireland, -10 to -12 C closer to south coast and east coast, and along the outer north coast about -5 C. It would not surprise me if a few traditional cold spots flirted with the -20 C mark. Some ice fog by midnight and dense ice fog widespread by morning. (notice I've given up saying icy roads, I'm sure everyone has adjusted by now)

FRIDAY ... Sunny and very cold in most areas, some cloud and flurries could graze the east coast at times, winds light northerly, highs only -7 to -3 C for most places, and considerable ice fog remaining all day inland valleys.

FRIDAY NIGHT (Christmas Eve) ... Clear and very cold again, although some patchy cloud could develop and hold temperatures a few degrees higher than previous night. Lows therefore more variable but in the -5 to -15 C range mostly. Calm, good sleighing weather for reindeer.

SATURDAY (Christmas Day) ... Some sunshine at first although widespread ice fog too, cloud overspreading the southwest, west and northwest by morning and further east by evening. Some light snow or freezing drizzle possible in a few spots. Mostly dry but some ice fog too, highs -4 to -1 C on average, except 2-4 C in southwest by evening.

SUNDAY (St Stephen's Day) ... Early morning fog, freezing fog, snow mixed with freezing drizzle becoming heavy in some areas, freezing rain possible, and about a 50% chance of much milder rainy weather in the southwest, which would likely be accompanied by dense fog and strong SSE winds. If the cold hangs on, highs could be largely held down to 2-5 C. If the mild air wins more easily, highs could get into the 7-10 C range southwest and 3-7 C elsewhere.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... The most likely outcome (60% chance) would be slightly milder weather with a lot of fog, rather gusty south winds, slow melting of snow but widespread slush and slippery conditions, with pockets of very dense fog in valleys (even some ice fog). Highs in this scenario would average 5-8 C (it could be milder, but the melting snow and fog will hold down the temperatures somewhat). Two less likely outcomes can be mentioned here at this range -- (20% chance) very mild, heavy rain, fast thaw and melting, flood potential or (20% chance) staying cold, further snow or freezing drizzle, or even a return to wintry sunshine.

Obviously there is little point in trying to extend this forecast although for various reasons I think it's probably more certain that whatever happens in this period, it will revert to very cold weather soon after New Years.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER TODAY -- It was cloudy, mild and showery at times, almost spring-like except for the rather dark look to the day, and highs of 9 or 10 C. This seems likely to continue for several days.

WX HIGHLIGHTS -- Cold in the eastern half of North America except in eastern provinces of Canada near the Atlantic where quite mild and wet.

This may concern a few travellers -- snow may break out today around Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam. Expect a few delays if heading there.

Trogdor · 23-12-2010 12:22PM

Posts moved to discussion thread, this thread is for forecasts.

M.T. Cranium · 23-12-2010 07:03PM

UPDATE _ Thursday, 1800h GMT
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Forecast remains valid but some updates on the local east coast snowfall (and yes, I saw the brief foray of snow through the inland southeast on radar loop) ... this will continue about six more hours now, tapering off to very light flurries well after midnight. A further 10-20 cms possible in Dublin and parts of Wicklow and Meath. A further 5 cms possible in Wexford.

While there are no absolute guarantees, I am fairly confident that new snow will not be a problem (on any significant scale) tomorrow, since the pressure gradient will fall off to almost nil under strong high pressure scheduled to take up residence over central Ireland. The main weather features tomorrow will be the intense cold and widespread freezing fog likely to persist under these nearly calm conditions.

I hope to update again around 2030h with regard to latest guidance for Sunday-Monday which so far (with some guidance yet to update) have the same scatter of outcomes, but from what I'm seeing, it would be wise to plan around travel disruptions from snow, sleet and ice (some freezing rain) on Saturday night and Sunday, and widespread problems with standing water, dense fog and localized flooding on Monday. This localized flooding would not hit all northern and eastern regions at once, it will take days to melt the snow packs there. Kerry, on the other hand, would be first in line for rapid snow melt, followed by western parts of Galway and Mayo. The further east, inland or "up higher" you are, the slower this process would be, to the point of being almost a non-factor in higher parts of the southeast.

More updates on that period to follow.

sboyle · 23-12-2010 07:07PM

hi can you tell me if waterford will see any snow tonight?

Speak Now · 23-12-2010 07:15PM

sboyle wrote: »

hi can you tell me if waterford will see any snow tonight?

That's an easy one...no.

M.T. Cranium · 23-12-2010 09:36PM

UPDATE (2) _ Thursday, 2030h
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Anybody know the location of the keys to the Dublin snow machine? Thanks.

I had promised an update on the weather after Christmas, and here it is ... what's already posted above and previously continues to be my forecast offering (probably more of the myrrh and frankincense than the gold, but, I had considerable travel expenses along the way ...)

Let me review the various models: :eek::eek:

:mad::pac::p:o

Okay, now in words. ECM somewhat backing off major warming and quick transition to cold inversion high set-up that would see a partial thaw followed by more ice towards New Years. GFS still wanting to thaw and stay mild for a while although nothing too dramatic. GEM the mildest of the lot, will either hit a home run or strike out swinging (sorry, wrong sport but you'll know what I mean). NOGAPS is similar but less extreme. UKMO has finally moved from its stubborn no-warming stance to a slight warming that would probably not thaw counties away from the west coast. GME a little of everything now. JMA suggests a slow thaw followed by a slow freeze -- could be the best of the lot, at least it's close to the mean. Moscow model (on meteociel) has the warm front stalling south of Ireland suggesting days of snow. If correct, a coup for this lightly regarded newcomer. The Australian model (BOM) which had been cold is now like the GFS.

I continue to be very suspicious of the warming trend and will believe it when I see it -- however, just on the probabilities from this mysterious melange of models (even Aunt Lottie's trifle will be easier to figure out than this), could suggest that the sequence is most likely to be:

Christmas Day -- cold and dry, some late outbreaks of snow west

St Stephen's Day -- cold and wet, snow changing to freezing rain for most, sleet and later rain in southwest, very foggy and icy especially east.

Monday 27th -- thaw conditions setting in but perhaps not in Ulster, parts of Leinster, deeper valleys in east Munster, more risk of fast thaw to flooding in Kerry, west Cork, Galway and Mayo (Clare, Limerick, east Cork less so due to absence of deep snow).

Tuesday 28th -- thaw diminishing slowly, but some risk of a heavy cold rain, roads very much of a mess with ponded meltwater and slush (or possibly ice if colder).

29th to New Years Day -- quite likely a return to colder weather, possibly not too severe but back to freezing conditions at least at night.

I apologize for the vagueness of this scenario and I caution that it represents the sort of balance point between scenarios that involve a lot of rain and a lot of snow if one of the more extreme solutions verify.

The one good thing, I suppose, is that many people would already have planned to be at home or on a long-stay visit through the worst of this period, but for those who were planning to travel 26th or 27th, would just say, try to change that if possible because the odds do not look good for easy travel of any kind (unless very short trips).

And a word to the wise in the snow zone, shovel and clear tomorrow because you probably won't want to be out on Christmas Day and then later, you could be facing an icy, slushy mess with the risk of injuries to pedestrians using your property or the pavement outside your home.

M.T. Cranium · 24-12-2010 07:54AM

Friday, 24 December, 2010
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TODAY ... With the exception of some freezing fog well inland in a few valleys, widespread very cold sunshine today with highs generally -5 to -1 C. There is the slight chance of a flurry in Wexford from mainly offshore streamers moving closer to the coast. Winds generally very light to calm.

TONIGHT ... Another clear, very cold night, with more widespread freezing fog due to a stronger inversion. Lows about the same as the past night, in the range of -15 to -10 C for many places and even -5 C in temperate coastal locations.

SATURDAY (Christmas Day) ... Morning sunshine giving way to cloud, but many inland counties will experience persistent freezing fog. Highs about -2 C on average east and north, to +3 C south and west. Some light snow or sleet is possible by evening or midnight in the southwest (inland). Winds will be calm to start but a raw SE 10-20 mph later. Risk of a streamer developing overnight (26-27) in the Irish Sea and hitting perhaps Down, Louth and nearby counties.

SUNDAY (St Stephen's Day) ... Cloudy, intervals of snow, sleet, freezing drizzle, freezing rain, followed by rain. The main forecast question is whether these wintry types will be heavy or persistent. This may prove to be the case in some parts of Ulster and Leinster. A faster transition can be expected in most of Munster and coastal Connacht. Ice fog could be persistent inland turning to fog as temperatures slowly rise. In general, morning lows will be in the range of -2 to +4 C from east to west, while highs will be 3 to 8 C from east to west (possibly a pleasant 10 C in coastal Kerry). Dense fog will develop in many areas by afternoon and evening as winds rise to SSE 25-45 mph in the west, SE 15-30 mph in the east. There remains a slight chance of the fronts stalling and for snow to continue -- watch for later forecasts just in case this happens.

Thaw conditions will set in slowly for the east and north as well as for heavily snow-covered parts of inland Connacht. Thaw conditions will be faster to develop in Munster, in part because some areas may not have snow cover, but where there is some in the west, this may melt rapidly leading to local flooding and mudslide problems in hilly areas of Kerry and west Cork.

MONDAY (27th) ... Unless the model guidance proves entirely false, this should be the mildest day of this brief thaw, and with 10-15 mms of rain in some areas, could prove to be quite a wet day as snow begins to melt. With lots of snow still in place, ponding on roadways and in parking lots will be a problem in many areas. So will dense fog in rural areas. Highs may reach 7-10 C in most areas but 4-7 C over higher northern snow-covered areas.

OUTLOOK ... Higher pressure will rapidly build in from sources in the North Atlantic and Scandinavia. While this won't be a severe cold spell, if at least half the snow survives the thaw, the nights are likely to become very cold again, and some inversion fog will develop and remain in place all day inland. Expect highs around 3-5 C at maximum, possibly lower inland, and overnight lows in the -5 C range. This spell may last quite a while according to the models but there are also hints of a reload of severe winter weather, which you could estimate might return some time around 2-4 January or perhaps a bit later than that.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER -- Thursday Dec 23 was a mild, cloudy day with some rain and moderate SE winds here.

WX HIGHLIGHTS -- It remains cold across eastern North America, and a minor snowstorm is expected by the 26th-27th in the mid-Atlantic states. This may miss NYC and New England to the south.

Due to the Christmas holiday, updates might not appear but some of the weather forum regulars will probably be on line at various times on the discussion threads. If we don't meet in cyberspace again, Happy Christmas to you and yours, and safe travels.

M.T. Cranium · 25-12-2010 06:18AM

Saturday, 25 December, 2010
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Forecast essentially unchanged ... have a Happy Christmas and if you're travelling, safe journeys. The forecast in brief summary:

TODAY: Cold, dry, increasing cloud from west to east, winds picking up by afternoon or evening in the west, from a southerly direction. Highs generally about -2 to +3 C.

TONIGHT: Chance of snow, sleet or freezing drizzle in the east and north, foggy with rain developing west and south, temperatures slowly rising.

SUNDAY: Foggy with rain leading to a slow thaw in some areas, continuing wintry mix in some eastern counties at first, temperatures continuing to rise slowly, extensive ponding of water and slush by afternoon/evening. See the thread on thaw and flooding for more details. Highs around 6 C east and around 10 C southwest, 8 C inland west.

MONDAY: Mild, periods of rain, thaw with some flooding problems. Not all the snow will melt, especially on higher terrain. Highs near 9 or 10 C. Foggy.

TUESDAY: Still rather mild, foggy, some hazy sun may break through, highs around 6 C.

OUTLOOK: Dry and cold again, not severely cold at least for a few days, but well below freezing at night.

I think that's more than enough for the Christmas morning brain to absorb, don't you? I'll know soon enough. ... My weather on Friday 24th was very mild, windy, with highs near 10 C in rain. This is set to continue "today."

Travelling to the states? You may run into snow in NYC by Sunday night or Monday morning. This storm is just getting started now in the southeast U.S. but looks set to become stronger by Sunday. Amounts may be 3-6" for NYC and heavier to the east in Long Island and eastern New England. Washington DC and Philadelphia could see about 2-4" with heavier amounts to their east as well.

I would advise people to check the thaw and possible flood risk thread for updates from the weather forum crew, as I will very likely be out of the "office" until about this time Sunday morning for an update then.

M.T. Cranium · 26-12-2010 07:34AM

Sunday, 26 December, 2010
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TODAY ... Milder with periods of rain in the western half of the country, although this rain is edging east rather slowly, winds increasing to SSE 20-40 mph ... highs about 8-10 C with the rain, and a substantial thaw likely with some flooding ... further east, cloudy and a bit milder today with risk of brief intervals of snow, sleet or freezing rain, mainly by mid-day or afternoon, especially over inland valleys that have retained sub-freezing temperatures to this morning ... here, these wintry precip types will change slowly to drizzle or rain this afternoon or evening ... and highs will stall at about 3-6 C.

TONIGHT ... Dense fog developing with widespread rain and thaw conditions, some flooding likely from snow melt as well as 10-15 mms of rain, lows about 3 to 6 C in most areas (near zero in parts of the northeast).

MONDAY ... Rather mild with fog and rain becoming showery by afternoon, highs about 9-11 C, extensive thaw and possible flooding. Winds S 15-30 mph and patchy dense fog especially inland over melting snow. Widespread road flooding from ponded meltwater and melting slush.

TUESDAY ... Drizzle, foggy, not as mild with lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.
However, thaw and some melting will continue to be problems. Poor road conditions in some areas.

OUTLOOK ... Dry and colder for several days, see discussion threads for more about this, seems to me that temperatures will be slightly below normal again.

MTC's WEATHER TODAY (25th) was mild with rain, highs near 11 C. A snowstorm is brewing for the east coast of the U.S. and amounts of about 8 to 15 inches are predicted for the large cities, possibly more in some places.
This will reach its peak tonight and early Monday.

Staying on a somewhat reduced schedule through today, would advise that you check the ongoing threads in the weather forum for more timely updates by this afternoon, and travel with caution in Kerry and parts of west Connacht where the thaw will be underway today, the main hazard may be local mudslides from rapid snowmelt at mid-range elevations where snow is deeper, and/or ditches and culverts flooding rural roads. So far, it does not appear that freezing rain will be an enormous problem but locally it could be severe, depending on when rain starts and how much cold air is left trapped near the surface. I am only expecting snow in a few inland parts of Leinster and Ulster, briefly, but watch for any possible outbreaks from sea effect streamers that could form in a south to southeast wind near Down and Louth later on.

M.T. Cranium · 27-12-2010 07:42AM

Monday, 27 December, 2010
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TODAY ... Foggy and mild with rain becoming showery, some brief intervals of hazy sunshine in south by mid-day, winds SSW 20-40 mph falling off by late afternoon to 15-25 mph. Highs 8-11 C. Extensive melting of snow, local flooding and widespread ponding of water in areas currently snow-covered.

TONIGHT ... Foggy and mild, periods of rain in western counties, winds staying southerly at 15-25 mph, lows 3-7 C (milder in southwest than elsewhere). Further melting of snow and flooding problems. Localized rainfalls of 15-30 mms western counties.

TUESDAY ... Rain moving north into Connacht, 10-20 mms, drizzly light rain elsewhere, continued rather mild in a moderate southerly breeze, highs 7-9 C. Fog will tend to thicken by afternoon and evening. Some continued flooding problems. Note that higher elevation snowpacks will be quite unstable and prone to local snow slides. I expect by this point, there will be little snow left below 300 metres above sea level, except in wooded areas.

WEDNESDAY ... Foggy and rather chilly again, with morning lows near freezing and afternoon highs of 4-7 C, in light southeast winds.

OUTLOOK ... Several days of cool, almost calm weather with widespread fog and mist, some sunshine possible around coasts mainly, and temperatures near -3 C at night, near +4 C daytime on average. This spell seems likely to last through New Years. Most models are showing a period of somewhat chilly northwesterly flow early in 2011 but we have to watch for more retrogression which could open the way to colder arctic air to return at some point.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER for Sunday 26th was cloudy and mild with slight rainfalls and highs near 10 C.

WX HIGHLIGHTS ... A blizzard developed earlier Sunday on the east coast and has paralyzed New York, Boston and areas in between. Not so bad further south around DC where the snow has pretty much ended with only a few inches, but NYC, Long Island and parts of New England are getting at least 30 cms and up to 60 cms of snow in very strong northerly winds gusting at times to about 60 mph. Expect long delays at New York airports which are likely to be closed most of today.

M.T. Cranium · 27-12-2010 07:24PM

UPDATE _ Monday, 6:30 p.m.
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Heavy rain will continue to move steadily north in parts of west-central Ireland, the track of the heavier rain now in county Cork will be approximately on a line through Limerick, east Clare and Lough Derg, east Galway, and into west Ulster (including parts of Donegal). Some areas will get 20-30 mms of rain from this frontal band, further east towards Wexford and Dublin looking more like 5-10 mms, with intermediate amounts in between. One fortunate thing here is that some of the heavier rain is falling on regions that saw little or no snow, so far, but this will tend to change further north.

M.T. Cranium · 28-12-2010 06:20AM

Tuesday, 28 December, 2010
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TODAY ... Hazy sunshine and very mild ... it must seem like a whole new world after the coldest five weeks relative to normal in half a century ... but enjoy as this may gradually go downhill from here. Some drizzle or light rain could move into the west at times, highs 10-13 C most places, a bit cooler in northern valley settings. Winds moderate southerly. Some flooding will either continue or develop, depending on the size of the drainage area concerned.

TONIGHT ... Extensive fog developing, drizzle or light rain in parts of Connacht and Donegal. Lows 3-6 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some persistent fog, but rather mild, hazy sunshine breaking through in about half the country (south and east coast likely to do best with clearing), highs still well above freezing at about 6-9 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... A colder period will gradually develop under nearby high pressure, some inland frosts, dense fog tending to become more persistent in some inland areas, lows in the range of -4 to +1 C, highs in the range of 4 to 7 C.

WEEKEND ... Here's where the cold may return, although it looks more of a direct hit for Britain than for Ireland ... a moderately strong northerly will develop, but the high will stay rather close to Ireland, gradually pulling away to the northwest again. This should lead to dry, cold weather in Ireland with highs only 2-4 C and lows around -5 C. Eastern parts of Scotland and England could be seeing renewed snowfalls and even colder temperatures inland, so if this high should happen to pull back faster, it would open the arctic floodgates again.

OUTLOOK ... At the moment, the scenario just mentioned looks like it might take two "shots" with a slight rebound of the milder Atlantic air around the early part of the week (3rd-7th) holding off the really cold air masses until a stronger disturbance can form and drag down December-like cold. This seems like a somewhat better than 50-50 bet for the period between 6 and 15 January at this point. There is very cold air building in central Russia from Siberia, and if this gets dragged far enough west, we could even see a return to record cold at some point. So I don't think winter is "over" and this current three-day mild spell will probably have to suffice for a while -- that's why I said at the outset, take advantage of it while it's around, because there is no steady stream of warmth coming along behind it.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER for Monday 27th was mild, again, with evening rain now setting in, after a rather dry but cloudy day. The high was about 9 deg.

WX HIGHLIGHTS ... sure you saw on the news that New York and Boston got hit by a severe snowstorm of near-blizzard proportions, the wind was especially fierce in NYC and Long Island with gusts to about 60 mph. Snowfalls of almost two feet were fairly widespread and some reports of 2.5 feet (30 in, or about 75 cms) came in from northern New Jersey. Oddly enough, this storm will be followed after a few days by a thaw and the next big storm is forming out of the mess around the west coast here, to move towards the upper Great Lakes by New Years Eve.

Due in part to the quiet weather pattern, I shall take advantage and restrict myself to daily updates for a while, keeping an eye on any winter onslaughts that might come about.

M.T. Cranium · 29-12-2010 07:42AM

Wednesday, 29 December, 2010
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Forecast follows on from yesterday ... not much change in the various models and considerable agreement among them ... the general theme is very gradual cooling back towards below normal from the current above normal temperatures.

TODAY ... Cloudy with occasional rain, rather light and drizzly in most cases, but 5-10 mms could accumulate, a little more in parts of inland Connacht. Becoming rather foggy later today, as slightly cooler air seeps into the mix, but highs around 9-11 C in general.

TONIGHT ... Foggy, drizzle or light rain in a few areas, slightly cooler with lows around 2-5 C on average.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks, southeast winds at about 10-20 mph, and some local drizzle near south coast. Highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Morning dense fog and local frost where any clearing develops, lows about -2 to +3 C ... afternoon cloudy with some sunny breaks, misty or foggy in some inland counties, highs 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Sharp morning frosts, sunny and cool with some patchy low cloud or fog in the mix too, lows -5 to -1 C and highs 3-6 C.

SUNDAY ... Little change, could become slightly milder again in west, lows around -5 to -1 C, highs 4-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Any milder tendency would be short-lived due to the current high sinking south to allow a brief westerly, then a reinforced northerly could develop at any point middle to end of the first week of the new year. Despite the rather bland look of the models, there is plenty of potential here for a strong arctic outbreak so we're watching this very closely.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER for Tuesday 28th was pleasant, the sun broke through mid-day despite a lot of higher cloud, with grey towering cumulus off to the southeast and north. The highs today were about 7 C. Currently cloudy and about 3 C at 10:30 p.m. local time here.

Wx HIGHLIGHTS ... Relatively pleasant weather in the east after the big snowstorm, allowing recovery to proceed without much interruption in places that got 1-2 feet of snow on the weekend. Milder across the central U.S. in advance of a strong storm off to my south here (hence the high cloud), forming over Oregon moving towards North Dakota by Thursday night. This will bring temperatures up to 10-15 C as far north as Lake Erie by New Years Eve, and 8-10 C on the east coast to melt some of the snow gradually there.

Next update from me is likely to be 24 hours hence, as we're enjoying the holidays and going on a few day trips. Looks to me as though everyone in the weather forum is taking a long overdue break too -- but we'll all be back at it soon enough, I'm sure. :cool:

M.T. Cranium · 30-12-2010 07:50AM

Thursday, 30 December, 2010
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Currently, most of the models are indicating a colder trend but the stronger cold spell is likely to start around Thursday 6th of January. In other words, the mildest weather has now come and gone, but it should stay fairly close to average values until middle of next week (and possibly longer, as a minority of the current models show continued westerly flow).

TODAY ... Widespread low cloud and fog, just a few sunny intervals more likely in the northwest inland ... patchy drizzle or light rain near the south and southwest coasts ... winds SE 10-20 mph adding a bit of chill today ... highs 6-9 C (still about 10-11 C in the southwest).

TONIGHT ... Foggy but with any brief clearing temperatures could drop below freezing and bring some icy roads and freezing fog. Lows in the range of about -2 to +4 C. Light winds or calm.

FRIDAY ... Some low cloud and persistent fog, some wintry sunshine breaking through, with a light east wind ... chilly, highs about 5-7 C on average.

SATURDAY ... Rather cold, sharp morning frosts, widespread fog, lows between -5 and -1 C in most places ... some sunshine and chilly during the day, highs about 4-6 C. Light east to southeast winds.

SUNDAY ... Little change from the above, except that it could be a bit milder in the west, with more cloud from the Atlantic moving back into Connacht. Light northwest winds in that region, otherwise calm to light and variable.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Expect a cloudy, relatively mild period with west to northwest winds at 10-20 mph (possibly 20-40 mph north) and some showers or drizzle, highs around 8 C.

MID-WEEK and OUTLOOK PERIOD ... Likely to turn colder, and possibly very cold again ... we have all hands on deck watching this (check the discussion threads for the range of opinions on this, but basically, nobody can be too sure yet with the models somewhat scattered).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... (Wed 29th) Went on a day trip 50 miles east of here to see the annual gathering of eagles where the Harrison River drains into the Fraser. We saw a lot of eagles (at least a hundred) and some snow (about two inches on the average) which fell last night. The day was misty, about +2 C, with some clearing back here on the coast, so now back there it is clear and cold (-3 C). Picture of an eagle follows ...

Wx HIGHLIGHTS ... A major storm system has formed over Idaho-Montana-Wyoming, and this is pulling milder air north from the Gulf of Mexico. Snow will be spreading into the Dakotas and southern parts of the Canadian prairies today.

M.T. Cranium · 30-12-2010 09:55PM

UPDATE _ Thursday, 9 p.m.
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No significant changes to forecast, but some comments on the model outlook for next week. There is growing consensus from the five or six most reliable models that wintry cold and possibly snow will return around the middle of next week, with a gradual shift from modified cold this weekend and early next week, to something more arctic in nature. While the European model indicates quite a stormy period, the rest of the models have more of a northerly appearance, so taking some sort of consensus there, it would probably be most likely to see periods of more disturbed weather embedded in the generally cold northerly so that snow would be most likely in the west and north with more of a showery or dry pattern in the south and east.

As we get closer to the time, we'll have more details that we feel are reliable, but the general picture seems to be this -- getting colder in stages, but still tolerable and mainly dry through Monday, showery on Tuesday and getting colder towards the end of the day, and wintry at least in temperature, with snow possible in the west and north, by about Wednesday.

Next update with the regular morning forecast around 0600h.

M.T. Cranium · 31-12-2010 07:50AM

Friday, 31 December, 2010
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There is still uncertainty about the details, but a gradual return to wintry weather is expected. Most of the guidance is similar through Tuesday, then the question becomes whether much colder air arrives in a hurry from the north, or in further steps around low pressure that could form to the west and force the cold air to slow down and build in more gradually. That would affect how much snow might be expected in each region of Ireland, on the basis of wind direction. For now, I am going to take a compromise in this forecast and wait for a little more consensus to develop.

TODAY will continue rather cloudy and a bit colder, with mist or fog rather prevalent again; the sun may make a few brief appearances too. Winds will be light easterly, or calm. Highs will be mostly in the range of 6-9 C.

TONIGHT will see some clearing, and it will turn colder with widespread frost by midnight -- given that it's New Years Eve, drive with caution -- lows will fall to about -3 C across much of the north and central inland regions, and around -1 C south coast and Dublin. Some pockets of ice fog may develop, and by dawn there could be one or two wintry showers or flurries near the north coast.

SATURDAY (New Year's Day) will be partly sunny and rather cold, with a few scattered flurries or showers of sleet (hail) moving south but tending to die out by afternoon, so that the northern half of the country is more likely to see these light showers. Highs will be about 2-5 C. Winds will be northeast at about 10-15 mph.

SUNDAY will be a cold, rather calm day with variable amounts of cloud, the slight chance of a snow flurry in the north, followed by some drizzle near the Connacht coast. Lows will be about -4 C and highs around 4 C.

MONDAY will continue rather bland and chilly, with variable cloud, one or two light showers or flurries (mixed wintry showers), lows near -3 C and highs near 5 C.

TUESDAY is likely to become more breezy or locally windy with showers turning to wet snow or hail later in the day, winds NW to N 15-30 mph, morning lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C.

From WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY, expect a change to colder weather and some outbreaks of snow, possibly mixing with rain in the south at first. This change will either be gradual or rather fast, and with a faster speed we can expect more of the snow to be in Connacht and Ulster than elsewhere, if the change comes on slower, the distribution of snow may be more even although the south would be too mild at first and would be seeing rain changing to sleet and eventually wet snow. The situation is very much "in flux" and may be clarified by about Sunday. The duration of this cold spell might depend on how it starts too, I suspect that a slower start may be a sign of a longer duration.

MTC's WEATHER TODAY (Thursday 30 Dec) was sunny and quite cold, with a high no better than -1 C, and currently clear and -5 C.

Wx HIGHLIGHTS ... blizzard conditions in parts of South Dakota, North Dakota and Minnesota at present, while milder air has moved north into the Great Lakes and Ohio valley. ... a major Siberian high is developing east of the Urals and pushing slowly into European Russia. This may get involved in the cold spell eventually in western Europe although most of the cold air being depicted in the current models is from the east Greenland region.

Deep Easterly · 31-12-2010 12:40PM

Hi M.T,

Can I just take this opportunity to say thanks for all your incredibly detailed daily forecasts, which were always up without fail (before most of us were!!) in 2010. I think it is safe to say that your input here on Boards.ie and on IWO is changing, for the better, how we Irish think and talk about the weather.

Happy New Year M.T.C.

...and thanks

M.T. Cranium · 31-12-2010 09:21PM

Thanks, DE, and everyone else, I believe there are many resources here in the Boards weather forum, in fact a wealth of knowledge and experience with Irish weather, that I am only partially exploiting so far -- and I hope to make more use of these resources in 2011.

This year's weather has been extremely interesting especially at each end of the year, can't say much about April or September off-hand, but perhaps DE or someone here will post a retrospective on the year 2010, which must have had the coldest January-December combination in a long, long time. Now we wait to see how the December-January consecutive combination works out.

Happy New Year to all ... I have a brief update to follow

UPDATE _ Friday 31 Dec 2010 _ 8:30 p.m.
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Looks now that there will be a lot of cloud stubbornly hanging around in most areas, so lows tonight may have trouble falling much below 2-3 C, except in a few spots that might clear. This will probably leave any showery precip later as drizzle or sleet. But don't be surprised to see a few snowflakes in parts of the north if you get up early enough (and who does on 1 Jan?).

Meanwhile, the latest word on the street about the cold spell is about the same, mixed reviews on how fast the cold air comes rushing in, or seeping in, behind a low pressure system due to cross northern parts of Ireland and then Great Britain on late Tuesday and possibly most of Wednesday (the faster model solutions have the cold air into most of Ireland by mid-day Wednesday, the slower ones are more like Thursday north and a very slow spread further south).

So, it's still not entirely clear whether this coming cold spell will amount to very much, but it has potential, and we can be fairly certain that temperatures will be generally below normal for the first half of January.

My long-range forecast mentions a turn to milder weather, if perhaps briefly, around the 15th to 20th. This could turn out to be a stormy period also, as we hit a high energy peak around the same time as a temperature peak in the analogue years. Could be quite a change in pattern but possibly not an established change as there are indications of a return to colder weather after this event (or series of events).

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2011 08:36AM

Saturday, 1 January, 2011
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Cloud has proven to be quite stubborn and may just start to break up slowly during the day, from north to south. There seems to be a better chance of clearing tonight, although even there, not a sure thing. Then cloud will slowly return late Sunday night and Monday, with a strengthening frontal system dropping southeast late Tuesday bringing a change to considerably colder weather -- at least that's the weak verdict of the models with a spread attached.

TODAY ... Cloudy with late morning sunny breaks developing, some sunshine during the afternoon in many parts although cloud could prove more stubborn in some parts of Connacht and west Munster. Patchy light showers drifting further south and then southwest during the day, but only trace amounts to about 1 mm likely. Highs today about 5-7 C and winds becoming NE 10 mph.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, possibly quite cold as a result, with lows potentially -5 to -1 C (but where cloud holds firm, it could stay above freezing, this more likely in west coast to south coast districts). Patches of ice fog developing, some very slippery roads in Ulster, Leinster, east Munster, inland Connacht.

SUNDAY ... Some sunny intervals with a gradual increase in cloud from the northwest later in the day, highs 2-5 C, chilly especially in the shade where frost may linger all day.

MONDAY ... A few clear spots in southeast early morning could see lows near -5 C again, but a milder overnight developing in northwest, then cloudy during the day for most, with light rain brushing the north coast and a few sprinkles of sleet possible over higher ground further south by late afternoon, but after a mostly dry day ... highs 4-8 C, mildest in southwest.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers developing in a strong westerly wind across the north, but these only arriving further south by late in the day, by which time strong northwest winds will be arriving in Connacht and Ulster. Lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C, with winds reaching 25-45 mph later in the day.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, colder, passing showers turning to sleet, hail or snow more frequently in Connacht and Ulster. Lows near -1 C and highs near 4 C. Some models are suggesting quite strong northwest winds, but this is not settled yet.

OUTLOOK ... The prospects for the latter part of the week into the following weekend are quite mixed (up) on the models, but the colder solutions look somewhat more plausible to me ... although I would only say a 60-40 chance of having a prolonged cold spell lasting well into the weekend ... there is therefore some chance of a brief and weak cold spell transitioning to milder and then eventually rainy and stormy conditions (as per one model, the GFS).

I'm thinking that the GFS may have diagnosed a later trend that could be more realistic for mid-month. It's odd to find that the GEM and European models are more in agreement than any other combination, yet these are the main "cold" solutions at this point.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER for Friday (31 Dec) was sunny and cold again, with the high about 2 deg. It remains clear and very cold approaching midnight here, about -5 C.

Wx HIGHLIGHTS ... The strong northern plains storm has spawned some deadly tornadoes in Arkansas and Missouri earlier on Friday, and this front is now approaching Chicago and Louisville on its way to the Great Lakes by afternoon. The front is slowly weakening and while the weather will turn colder this storm is now past its energy peak. Looks like some exceptionally cold air moving south later in the weekend and through the week in central Canada to bring frigid conditions to the Great Lakes and then the northeast by late in the first week of the new year.

Happy New Year to you and yours.

M.T. Cranium · 02-01-2011 08:05AM

Sunday, 2 January, 2011
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This rather cold air mass will gradually warm back up to near normal temperatures by later Monday and Tuesday, but then a colder batch of arctic air is headed south and looks to bring snow to at least the higher parts of the north and northwest by mid-week. While it seems very likely to stay cold for about five days once it arrives, there are no strong indications yet for severe cold or significant snow in the east and south. That's not to say snow won't develop, because the guidance is very sketchy at present on the nature of small but potentially important disturbances that are likely to form just off to the south when the arctic air has settled in.

TODAY ... The stubborn cloud may finally break in some northern counties today, but I suspect it will remain at least partly cloudy to overcast in the south and west, and there could be an isolated flurry of sleet, although basically it will be a dry day with light east winds and highs near 3 or 4 C.

TONIGHT ... More breaks are likely tonight in the overcast, leading to frost and local ice fog, lows about -4 to -1 C on average.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, mostly of the higher variety, and slightly milder again in a weak W to NW flow, leading to some drizzle or light rain by evening in Connacht. Highs 5-7 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, some showers developing, becoming windy with heavier showers in the north by afternoon, winds increasing to WSW 25-45 mph, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C. Sleety showers and hill snow could develop by Tuesday night.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, some brief sunny breaks, showers of hail, snow on higher ground, but possibly turning to heavier snow over much of Donegal and Mayo (especially inland) as well as some other parts of the northwest and north. Winds WNW 25-35 mph. Cold, with lows near -1 C and highs near +2 C (to +5 C far southeast and outer south coast). Some parts of the northwest could see 5-10 cms of snow with more to come later.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... A cold period is likely, with daytime highs held down to about -1 to +2 C, but overnight lows -8 to -4 C, continued heavy snow showers over the north and northwest at times, and the risk of snow in other regions although nothing too specific on that yet (it will all depend on where disturbances develop along a frontal zone likely to stall near the south coast). First indications say that this won't be quite as severe a cold spell as either of the first two major outbreaks, but severe enough ...

OUTLOOK ... As I was speculating, any signs of a fast breakdown of this pattern to much milder may be delayed a few days past Monday 10th which had been advertised earlier on some of the models ... this seems too fast and it may stay cold to about the 13th or so. I do have reasons to believe that a much milder period will follow but it may not last more than five days.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... On Saturday, New Year's Day, we enjoyed a bright, almost calm day with some higher cloud around, and highs near 4 C. It will be clouding over soon with rain expected at times in the next two days.

Wx HIGHLIGHTS ... (by the way, Wx means weather, just in case

) ... rather cold in central parts of North America, still quite mild on the east coast as the storm dies out near Hudson Bay ... perhaps the big story is that major arctic outbreaks are featured on the one to three week outlook charts for almost all regions of North America. I expect to be mentioning -35 to -45 temperatures in parts of western Canada by next week, and the air already here is quite cold. This outbreak will come at us from Alaska and eastern Siberia.

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2011 08:15AM

Monday, 3 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Some morning sunny or at least brighter intervals mainly in the north, outbreaks of drizzle near south coast where cloud more likely to hold, then a general increase in cloud across the north in advance of some light rain that could start as sleet or wet snow on hills in Connacht and west Ulster. Remaining fairly dry across much of the central belt from Clare to Dublin. Light winds at first then a westerly breeze of 10-20 mph as highs reach 5-8 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, sleet or rain at times, becoming rather heavy in a few parts of Connacht (snow accumulations 2-5 cms on hills). Still rather dry further south with just scattered showers after midnight. A bit milder again with lows 1-4 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, some with hail and possibly a rumble of thunder, becoming quite windy in west and north (WSW 30-45 mph), breezy further south, highs 6-8 C. Some sunny breaks too, quite a varied weather day likely. By TUESDAY NIGHT expect some snow in Donegal and other parts of west Ulster, inland Mayo and parts of Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon. 3-7 cms could fall by morning although sleet is expected near sea level. Winds turning more northwest through the night, mixed wintry showers becoming more prevalent further south also, as lows fall to about -1 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Further outbreaks of snow or sleet, some hail, and mostly cloudy with a few sunny intervals more likely in south, quite cold, with winds WNW 20-40 mph, highs only 1-3 C for most, 3-5 C south coast.

THURSDAY ... After quite a frosty night with lows -5 to -1 C, further outbreaks of snow mainly in northwest, some sunny breaks further south, cold with highs zero to +3 C ... a period of sleet and hill snow could also develop in the southwest from an Atlantic frontal wave. Winds tending to diminish through the day.

FRIDAY ... Mixed rain, sleet and wet snow likely across parts of the south, dry and cold further north except for some coastal snow showers in the north, lows -4 to zero C, highs 3-5 C south, 1-3 C north. Not as windy.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Uncertain prospects as models continue to chop and change, but the consensus seems to be that milder air will try to return north Friday night, find its way easier into southern England, allowing the cold lurking over the north to seep back south and change any early rain back to sleet and then wet snow. This cold outbreak, while not as severe as earlier ones, may be messy in its own right and be more of an elevation-based snowfall event.

FURTHER OUTLOOK: Colder and drier for a time Sunday into Monday, then a more vigorous push of milder air seems likely ... the period from about 12th to 17th seems likely to run fairly mild and windy at times, and it could get stormy in this period as, for the first time this winter, milder air meets up with a strong jet stream. The cold will not just vanish, but hold back for a while and possibly could come streaming back south once this series of windy fronts comes and goes.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER has been lovely, thanks, after some light drizzle in the early morning, it cleared up again and has been around 5 C with light winds, so quite pleasant.

Wx HIGHLIGHTS ... Tracking a very cold air mass south towards the Great Lakes, not much happening yet, but expecting some major snow squall activity by mid-week. See yesterday's report if you didn't already read it, for other details on long-range in North America. No changes to that.

I've had a nice rest and updated the forecast contests, so I hope to get into more regular updates this week, now that the quiet spell seems to be coming to an end.

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2011 07:48PM

UPDATE _ Monday, 6:45 p.m.
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Two additional details to add to the forecast which otherwise remains valid.

TONIGHT some areas of the south central inland counties will have a brief hard frost that may already be dissipated before morning due to cloud moving in overhead, but around midnight it could be as cold as -4 C in some parts, then temperatures could rise slowly before sunrise. Further north, the cloud will keep frost from developing at any point.

Also, looking at the model runs for this weekend, we could probably add a fairly good chance of strong west to northwest winds at times on Sunday into Monday morning, with locally heavy wintry showers across much of the west and north, in WNW winds 30-50 mph. This is basically due to the system I mentioned crossing the south on Friday night phasing in with what remains of the mid-week low near Scotland and developing a stronger centre there, pulling in the gusty winds from the Atlantic but the air will be near freezing so wintry showers and possibly some decent snow accumulations on hills in Connacht with this.

M.T. Cranium · 04-01-2011 08:36AM

Tuesday, 4 January, 2011
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New moon occurs today and in fact the Sun will rise partially eclipsed around 0830-0900h ... although I doubt that too many will catch a direct look at it, you may notice that it stays a bit darker than usual after sunrise.

TODAY ... Windy and relatively mild with periods of rain developing ... rain mixing with sleet and hill snow by afternoon and evening especially in Connacht and Ulster. Winds SW 25-45 mph and highs 6-8 C. About 5 mms of rain on average. Snow starting to accumulate on hills in north, west by evening.

TONIGHT ... Windy and colder with sleet, snow or hail, accumulating snow in parts of Connacht and Ulster, and on highest terrain further south and east, but continuing rain showers in some parts of south and east. Lows about -2 C in the north to +1 C southeast. Winds becoming westerly 25-45 mph adding quite a chill (feeling like -5 C in exposed locations). Accumulations of 3-7 cms of snow away from sea level in Connacht and west Ulster, scattered 2-4 cms elsewhere.

WEDNESDAY ... Heavy showers of hail, snow and sleet, some with thunder, winds WNW 20-40 mph, very cold ... highs only -2 to +2 C ... some further accumulations of 7-15 cms of snow in parts of Connacht and Ulster, 2-5 cms elsewhere, but tending towards only melting or scattered falls on east coast and across the south. Some sunny intervals by afternoon, brisk winds adding a chill, feeling like -5 C to -10 C.

THURSDAY ... Sharp to severe frosts, snow showers becoming more confined to north and west coasts and dying out, some sunshine despite a lot of higher cloud, less windy but staying quite cold ... lows near -5 C with isolated -10 C possible, and highs -1 to +3 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals further north, risk of a period of snow across higher parts of south, southeast, morning lows near -4 C and highs near 2 C (rising to 5 C south).

SATURDAY ... Sleet or wet snow at times, becoming windy with heavy snow showers developing in some parts of the west and north again, very cold, lows near -2 C and highs near 3 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy and very cold with heavy snow showers possible across much of west and north, scattered further east, some sunshine at times in south, winds WNW 30-50 mph, lows near -1 C and highs near 2 C.

OUTLOOK ... Cloudy, milder from late Monday on, with periods of rain developing, temperatures likely to rise to about 7-10 C by Tuesday or Wednesday with moderate SW winds at times, risk of a stronger windstorm developing at some point towards end of the week. This mild spell is expected to last only a few days then cold will probably return in some form.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday 3rd was sunny with some frost in the shade, cool with highs about 3-4 C. Cloudy at present, sleet or wet snow expected on Tuesday here.

Wx HIGHLIGHTS ... Everyone across North America being warned of much colder weather patterns to replace what has been seasonable chill past day or two ... and forecasters watching possible blizzard-like storms timed for about Sunday and mid-week threatening northeast U.S. again.

Watch for updates and visit the other discussion threads in the weather forum for more views and forecasts.

M.T. Cranium · 04-01-2011 08:42PM

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 7:30 p.m.
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Based on latest guidance, our alert for snowfall tonight and Wednesday in Connacht, Ulster and higher parts of west Munster is somewhat downgraded although a wide variety of showery precip can be expected with conditions marginal at sea level, promising around 200m for snow and almost definite for snow above 300m. Would expect some areas between 100m and 200m asl to pick up 3-7 cms from midnight to Wednesday evening, others will get more of a sleety mix. Some places above 200m could get 5-12 cms and higher slopes facing west could see 10-15 cms. Close to sea level and around 100m in the east and south, most precip will be sleet with some hail, but also, the amounts will diminish further east and south. In other words, there will be scattered outbreaks of snow and hail that will leave some significant covering across Connacht and Ulster, and road travel could involve a few tricky sections especially where elevations are above 200m.

Now for Thursday night and Friday, as you probably know, Met Eireann have been forecasting significant snowfalls and our earlier forecast spoke of potential, mixing etc. The latest guidance seems similar to me and taking into account the stated opinions of some other Boards forecasting sources, I think the best call we can make at this early stage is to raise an alert for potential snowfall most likely to break out across higher elevations of the south (including Kerry) on Thursday night, then spread across other parts of the southeast early Friday. The system has marginal upper-level support for snow and could produce mixed precipitation below about 200m asl. Certainly the few people who live above 400m asl in Wicklow and Dublin should expect a heavy snowfall, but below that level, amounts could be 3-7 cms in places trending to all rain near sea level, so a mixed bag seems to be most likely. For Cork and Waterford cities, the most likely outcome is snow changing to sleet then rain, and back to sleet before the system moves away Friday night. In higher outlying areas there could be significant snow. Of course we will be updating this at every opportunity and people should be aware that the range of possible outcomes even at about 2.5 days now, ranges from no precip at all, to mostly rain, to all snow. It's just one of those marginal systems that will depend on exact track and the parameters such as 1500m temperatures as the low develops.

Now as to the weekend, once again, everything is rather marginal but some areas could see significant snowfalls, most likely Connacht and west Ulster, by later Sunday into Monday morning. It looks at present as though the change to much milder weather will take place Monday night into Tuesday, and last about five or six days. A significant wind event still appears quite plausible later in that period. My research model has a high energy peak on the night of the 17th-18th so if the mild regime has not dissipated by then, we could see two wind events around the 15th and 17th by the look of the current guidance. As many of you know, I tend to allow the research model to take over from the conventional guidance in stages through days 6 to 10 because that has proven to be more accurate on a statistical basis. For what it's worth, the GFS output past day 8 (it goes 16 days although sometimes I wonder why they go that far out) looks almost worthless to me today, the ECM output looks plausible to near the end of its 10-day run.

M.T. Cranium · 05-01-2011 07:55AM

Wednesday, 5 January, 2011
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ALERT issued for Connacht and west Ulster, locally heavy showers of snow or hail, squally conditions at times, locally icy roads and reduced visibility. Some heavy snow accumulations of 5-8 cms mostly on higher terrain, 2-5 cms likely closer to sea level but not everywhere in this zone.

TODAY ... Heavy, at times squally showers of hail and snow will affect parts of Connacht and west Ulster, eventually extending a little further southeast, with westerly winds 25-45 mph. Highs zero to +3 C in this zone. Further south and east, some sunny periods and moderate SW winds, rather cold, highs 4-6 C. The far south could continue to see some showers mixing on hills with wet snow, for a few hours this morning, but this should clear southward by mid-day, while remnant mixed showers from the northwest will begin to invade central counties as well as east Ulster, bringing scattered hail, snow or rain showers by late morning into afternoon; the earlier squally weather in the northwest may then begin to ease. Conditions will be rather variable and some sunshine may continue in a few areas.

TONIGHT ... A few leftover wintry showers but widespread clearing with a diminishing westerly wind, sharp frosts and local icy roads, fog patches near any open water inland. Lows -5 to -2 C.

THURSDAY ... Cold with some sunshine, except for the occasional passing flurry or hail shower in the north. Increasing cloud over Kerry and Cork by afternoon. Winds falling light then backing to east across Munster, elsewhere just variable. Highs will be generally 2-4 C.

THURSDAY NIGHT into FRIDAY ... A mixture of snow, sleet and rain is likely across the southwest before midnight and into the southeast by morning. This precipitation will likely start out as snow or sleet in all but the coastal areas, where it should be mostly rain. However, as the event unfolds, some of the sleet and snow will also change to rain. Heavier snow accumulations of 5-10 cms seem likely above 200 metres a.s.l. and south of a line from about south Clare to Meath. North of that, the skies may remain clear to partly cloudy with only slight amounts of snow. Overnight lows of about -4 C north, -1 C south; daytime highs for most near 2 C, but 5 C south coast.

This weather system should finish dropping its mixed bag of wintry precipitation by Friday night and move on into Wales and southern England.

For Dublin and Wicklow, expect some heavier snow on the east slopes of the mountains and mixtures of sleet or wet snow closer to sea level, mixing with rain. All of this is subject to change as we get updated information; there is even a slight chance that the storm would miss most areas to the south.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather cold with a few intervals of sunshine each day, but some scattered wintry showers, mostly snow but some of hail or sleet too. There would probably be more of these in the west and north than elsewhere, until possibly Sunday night, when a weak band of wet snow or sleet may move across the country. Highs on the weekend will be about 2 or 3 C, overnight lows about -4 C.

NEXT WEEK ... Monday will probably remain a little on the cool side with sleet or rain late in the day, then it should turn considerably milder for 3-5 days with risk of some strong winds at times. Highs would be 7-10 C by mid-week. This mild spell may end rather gradually but there will be a return to colder weather after mid-month.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cold with sleet at times, not much accumulation, turning a bit milder by evening as temperatures continue to rise.

WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AMERICA continues to be quite cold in most regions with even colder air masses expected late this week and through next week. Details from yesterday remain valid on that.

Watch for updates on the slowly advancing band of wintry precipitation across Connacht and West Ulster today.

M.T. Cranium · 06-01-2011 08:29AM

Thursday, 6 January, 2011
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TODAY ... Dry and cold in most places, with some sunshine, but some freezing fog in parts of the southeast for a while this morning, sunshine breaking through low clouds eventually there, and also more cloud in the far north and northwest with mixed wintry showers at times near the coasts of Ulster included Donegal and northwest Mayo. Highs 2-4 C. Winds rather light except picking up to ESE 15-25 mph south coast, and NE 20-30 mph north coast.

TONIGHT ... Clear despite some high cloud at times, freezing fog becoming rather widespread, icy roads. Some rain or sleet at times near the south coast and a risk of some snow in higher parts of Kerry and Cork (likely only southern parts). Lows generally -5 to -2 C but near +3 C around Roches Point to Bantry Bay. There is a slight risk of freezing drizzle by dawn in places such as Cobh, Cork, Dungarvan and Waterford.

FRIDAY ... Outbreaks of snow and sleet, with rain along south coast, becoming somewhat heavier by afternoon and spreading sporadically northeast. Snow is only likely to stick well inland and above 300m a.s.l., to a northern limit of about Clare to Meath, north of which it should remain mostly dry but cloudy with possible light flurries. Snowfalls of 5-15 cms could develop over some higher terrain, sleet with some snow accumulating on grassy surfaces lower down, but quite possibly rain near sea level. Winds will pick up to ESE 20-40 mph backing slowly to NE 20-30 mph. It will remain cold with highs only 2-4 C (could touch 6 C southeast coast).

SATURDAY ... Any snow or sleet moving away to Wales by early morning, then some clearing, rather windy from north to northwest, risk of some heavy wintry showers in Connacht, but some sunshine most other places. Lows of about -2 C and highs near 3 C. Winds WNW 20-40 mph.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, wintry showers developing, sleet and wet snow likely, lows near -4 C and highs near 3 C. Winds SSW 15-25 mph, later westerly 20-30 mph.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, turning slightly milder, sleet becoming light rain at times, winds turning more southerly.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Much milder with strong SW'ly winds developing, some rain but clearing to partly cloudy with brief showers. Highs could reach 12 or 13 C in the southwest, 7-10 C for most other places, and winds of about 30-50 mph are likely.

OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather mild to the following weekend, with some more showery intervals, and risk of a period of stronger SW winds. Highs will be around 6-8 C in this period through Sunday 16th.

A much colder period will probably develop shortly after that, with a growing chance of a return to very cold weather in the last third of January.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Wednesday 5th was sleety with heavy rain at times this evening as it has warmed up slightly from +1 to +4 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER highlights include a developing snowstorm over central B.C. moving towards southern Alberta by Friday-Saturday. Much colder air is ready to move south behind that, and it could become a blizzard over the weekend in Saskatchewan and Montana. Very cold air is also moving into the Great Lakes region today, with locally heavy snow squalls likely.

There is still some uncertainty about Friday's snow or sleet, so keep in touch with the Boards forecasting crew on the thread discussing this event, and watch for updates here too.

M.T. Cranium · 07-01-2011 12:07AM

UPDATE _ Thursday 6 Jan 2011 _ 11 p.m.
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Latest guidance suggests the following outcomes for the complex Friday weather system:

Snow appears likely to break out late tonight inland parts of Kerry, Cork, and Waterford, with zones of freezing drizzle or even freezing rain, and then rain, closer to the coast. The rain-snow dividing line is expected to be about 100m above sea level and on the average 10-15 kms inland (but closer to the coast where terrain is higher). These boundaries will likely shift further inland and further upwards in elevation on Friday morning, as the precipitation shifts slowly north and also starts to overspread the southeast, where similar zones will develop.

By afternoon and evening, the snow will probably be found a bit further north in western Ireland and considerably further north in eastern Ireland, so that the axis of heavier accumulating snow will be something like south Limerick county to Thurles to Navan and towards the Meath coast. In this zone, some areas will see 10-12 cms but any lower elevations and town or city centres could see less as the temperatures will be marginal, and even small urban heat islands could change the phase of precip to sleet.

Overall then, the snowfall forecasts would be something like this:

5-8 cms inland parts of the southwest and southeast except

8-12 cms some parts of southeast Limerick, Tipps, north Cork, Carlow, Kilkenny, Laois, Kildare, and higher parts of Wexford, Wicklow and Dublin

In really high elevations mainly above human settlement, 12-20 cms could fall on higher slopes below summits facing east.

For Cork, Waterford and Wexford cities, it seems likely that a bit of everything will fall, snow, sleet, freezing drizzle, and eventually rain, then possibly back to sleet and a topping of snow near the end of the event.

For coastal Wicklow, would expect bursts of heavy snow then sleet and rain.

For Dublin and up to the north along the Meath coast, coastal and city centre districts will probably see only sleet and rain, but at about 100-200m asl expect 3-7 cms of snow and higher up, 8-12 cms. In all cases the snow could begin to mix with sleet by late afternoon.

The situation continues uncertain but this is our latest "best estimate" of what may unfold. Disruptions to road travel seem most likely from this scenario in a zone between west Dublin and Limerick centered on Laois and Tipps.

The snowfall potential in Connacht and Ulster seems to be more of a scattered 1-3 cm and partly dry scenario -- mixing would be less likely there, but many places could escape precipitation altogether.

M.T. Cranium · 07-01-2011 07:35AM

Friday, 7 January, 2011
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ALERT for locally heavy snow later today, especially mid-day to evening hours, across the inland south, southeast and eastern counties. Local falls of 5-15 cms are expected. Precipitation will change to sleet or rain near the south and east coast. Counties most likely to see the heavier snow include Tipps, Laois, Carlow, Kilkenny, north Waterford, parts of Cork and Limerick, inland Wexford, higher parts of Wicklow and Dublin, Kildare, Meath, Offaly, Westmeath, Louth.

TODAY ... Outbreaks of light snow inland south this morning, sleet or drizzle near the south and southeast coasts, otherwise dry and cold with limited sunshine far north ... during the afternoon, intervals of heavy snow may develop especially inland from about Limerick to northwest of Dublin. See alert above for counties affected. Snow may accumulate 5-15 cms. At this time, heavy sleet or rain likely around the southeast coast, including Waterford and Wexford cities, and possibly parts of coastal Wicklow and Dublin. Winds becoming NE 20-40 mph adding considerable chill to afternoon highs near -1 C inland and north to +5 C south coast, +3 C east coast. Becoming rather foggy in the afternoon mixed precipitation.

TONIGHT ... Intervals of snow or sleet ending in eastern counties, becoming partly cloudy after midnight, scattered snow showers moving inland over Connacht and Donegal, winds backing to NW 20-40 mph, lows near -3 C except closer to zero west coast.

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with scattered wintry showers over western counties, winds NW 20-40 mph, some sunny intervals east and south ... highs about 2 C.

SUNDAY ... Severe morning frosts, some freezing fog, afternoon cloudy intervals, risk of some sleety showers developing late in the day. Lows near -4 C and highs near 3 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, outbreaks of sleet then rain, winds SSW 20-40 mph, veering westerly, misty or foggy, lows near -1 C and highs near 6 C.

TUESDAY ... Early morning sleet or wet snow, then becoming milder with strong SW winds 35-55 mph arriving late in the day, heavy rain likely by evening, temperatures rising steadily from near 2 C to about 10-12 C by evening.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and mild, showers, winds SW 30-50 mph easing later, lows near 4 C and highs near 11-13 C southwest, 7-10 C elsewhere.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Continuing rather mild, some showers and risk of strong winds with highs 6-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Colder again in stages, potentially turning very cold by about the 20th.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER on Thursday 6th was cloudy with some morning rain, a bit milder with highs near 6 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... A heavy snowfall is moving inland across B.C. into Alberta today and tonight, and may bring near-blizzard conditions to parts of Alberta and Montana by Saturday. Very cold air is poised to move south behind this storm. Meanwhile, a rather weak and disorganized system from the Great Lakes to New England will bring local 1-3 cm snowfalls each day through Sunday with quite cold air in place. The cold is gradually pressing south towards Florida and the Gulf coast too.

More precise details on the afternoon-evening snowfall should be available after 1030h, check back during the morning for updates. The moisture to seed this snowfall (and coastal rain) is advancing northeast from around 50 deg north at present -- and should be moving onshore around Cork before noon. Expect the heavier snow into Kilkenny and Laois around 3 p.m. and into Dublin and Meath around 6 p.m.

M.T. Cranium · 08-01-2011 07:30AM

Saturday, 8 January, 2011
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ALERT for scattered heavy snow showers, also some hail and sleet, icy roads both from the aftermath of Friday's mixed precipitation in central and western counties and today's additional wintry precipitation. The heaviest showers today will likely be in Connacht, Donegal and parts of west Munster.

TODAY ... Variable cloud and cold this morning with a few scattered wintry showers, followed by heavier and more organized bursts of snow or hail across parts of Donegal, Connacht and West Munster spreading to other parts of the country in less intense form ... local 3-5 cms of snow possible especially in Mayo and Donegal ... highs only 2-4 C in winds WSW veering to WNW 20-40 mph.

TONIGHT ... A few residual wintry showers, clearing, fog patches and bitterly cold again, lows -6 to -3 C, winds diminishing to NW 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY ... Some sunny intervals, increasing cloud, possible wintry showers or sleet by evening. Highs near 3 C.

MONDAY ... Intervals of sleet changing to rain, foggy, milder, highs near 6 C by late in the day.

TUESDAY ... Fog, drizzle or light rain, becoming quite windy later in the day with bursts of heavier rain, winds SSW 30-50 mph, temperatures rising to about 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, very mild, winds SW 20-40 mph, highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY ... This period is likely to remain rather mild with occasional showers, possible strong winds at times, and highs 6-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning colder with some chance of snow returning at times later this month.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday 7th was showery with colder weather arriving in the afternoon, temperatures have fallen from near 8 C to about 3 at present. We are expecting a much colder week ahead with possible snow.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Scattered 10-20 cm snowfalls were found in parts of the northeast U.S. and New England Friday, although it is not a large, powerful storm but scattered snow showers with weak systems.

M.T. Cranium · 08-01-2011 05:40PM

UPDATE _ Sat 8 Jan 2011 _ 4:40 p.m.
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This evening, watch for squally showers containing some hail and snow over much of the country, with winds westerly 25-45 mph. For Donegal now to about midnight, and then for Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim, Derry and Tyrone, after about 6 p.m., watch for periods of snow (sleet near sea level) that may accumulate to 3-5 cms in places. This may spread a bit further east and south into other counties nearby, but should be largely confined to the northwest, and start to taper off to light flurries after midnight. Winds here will be NW 20-40 mph with some higher gusts.

The more extended forecast looks about the same on the newer model runs, expect temperatures in the range of 10-13 C mid-week, which should melt even the snow on top of higher hills by about Thursday (temps will be 5-8 C at summit levels next week).

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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