2014 Champion Hurdle

premierstone · 07-02-2014 04:12PM

byronbay2 wrote: »

Annie Power drifting like a barge for The CH on Betfair over the past couple of days. Currently 16/1 (only for €57 mind you) and no apparent takers at that price. Over €200 available at 14/1 or better. On the other hand, pretty solid at 7/2 for The Stayers. Does someone know something??

Riccis last interview definitly hinted very much towards the World Hurlde, he spoke about how he understood the importance of history and the respect he had for the yard and he finished by saying that she will run in whatever race that Willie and Ruby think she has the best chance of winning.

If he is being honest and the decision will ultimately be Willie's then the World is the most likely destination, personally think its her best chance aswell, the mares race apart of course.

Malarkey121 · 07-02-2014 04:26PM

I wouldn't be totally shocked if they kept her for other options myself, she has been well placed so far hovering up good money. Presume connections will discuss what is the best option at this stage of her career?

Volvic12 · 07-02-2014 04:35PM

Malarkey121 wrote: »

I wouldn't be totally shocked if they kept her for other options myself, she has been well placed so far hovering up good money. Presume connections will discuss what is the best option at this stage of her career?

I was thinking the same BUT i don't think Ricci cares how much money the horse "hoovers up". He has quite a bit of money I would think but would really love to win CH or Gold Cup. Annie Power gives him a real chance at one of those. Obvious has a chance in the WH but pretty unproven over that distance.

premierstone · 07-02-2014 04:35PM

Malarkey121 wrote: »

I wouldn't be totally shocked if they kept her for other options myself, she has been well placed so far hovering up good money. Presume connections will discuss what is the best option at this stage of her career?

She will definitly go to the festival IMO its just a matter of which race at this stage, think back to Ruby's comments after the Cheltenham race v Zarkandar or why they even took her over there in the first place. She will win the World Hurdle

ohh and the Gold Cup in 2016

premierstone · 07-02-2014 04:41PM

Volvic12 wrote: »

I was thinking the same BUT i don't think Ricci cares how much money the horse "hoovers up". He has quite a bit of money I would think but would really love to win CH or Gold Cup. Annie Power gives him a real chance at one of those. Obvious has a chance in the WH but pretty unproven over that distance.

Agree re the money its irrelevant to connections, people say she should go the Champion route as she is unproven over 3m, well two things, firstly She is also unproven over 2m against top class opponents, and secondly that race in Chelt against Zarkandar was over 2 1/2m in a bog against and Ruby's biggest preoblem that day was puilling her up, stamina would be no concern to me tbh.

Volvic12 · 07-02-2014 04:45PM

premierstone wrote: »

Agree re the money its irrelevant to connections, people say she should go the Champion route as she is unproven over 3m, well two things, firstly She is also unproven over 2m against top class opponents, and secondly that race in Chelt against Zarkandar was over 2 1/2m in a bog against and Ruby's biggest preoblem that day was puilling her up, stamina would be no concern to me tbh.

Fair point. I watched the race again and she definetly seemed to have plenty in the tank going up the hill. But, in a two horse race, hard to know what to take from it. Pace they were going etc.
Still, WH is definitely wide open and probably alot easier to win than CH which looks pretty hot - MTOY, HF, TNW, Our Conor etc.

Malarkey121 · 10-02-2014 01:57PM

I can agree connections have enough money but to have that amount of money you have to respect it.

Willie said it post race interview that I seen and was interested to hear him say they placed her well to pick up prize money on offer, last race he said that was worth £20,000 and was placed well.

low hanging fruit picking I would call it, I wouldn't say money is irrelevant to connections in fact money is everything to those who have a background and made their wealth in investment banking and acquisitions.

They like horses and Irish racing but they like money more.

Now is the time to place her again but this time against top class opponents

zpehtsfd · 10-02-2014 02:31PM

Malarkey121 wrote: »

I wouldn't say money is irrelevant to connections in fact money is everything to those who have a background and made their wealth in investment banking and acquisitions.

Not sure about Ricci caring about whether he makes money in racing but you can bet your life that WPM and Ruby care about making money and lots of it. Ricci has given them carte blanche and AP has been well placed to hoover up decent prize money whilst avoiding all of WPMs other firepower. There is no question where she goes if it's up to WPM/Ruby i.e. WH. This decision is clearly contentious and i thought the remark by RR "we won't fall out over it" was very telling. I really hope RR makes the decision to run her in the CH because i think she has earned it and would go there with a live chance. No vested interest from me, just want to see the best horses in the best races.

faoile@n · 10-02-2014 02:40PM

Malarkey121 wrote: »

I can agree connections have enough money but to have that amount of money you have to respect it.

Willie said it post race interview that I seen and was interested to hear him say they placed her well to pick up prize money on offer, last race he said that was worth £20,000 and was placed well.

low hanging fruit picking I would call it, I wouldn't say money is irrelevant to connections in fact money is everything to those who have a background and made their wealth in investment banking and acquisitions.

They like horses and Irish racing but they like money more.

Now is the time to place her again but this time against top class opponents

You sound like someone who has backed her for the Champion Hurdle.

Personally I think she'd be found out by the pace of the race as she is totally unproven at jumping at the speed required for the champion hurdle.

She should have contested a 2m G1 hurdle by now (same applies to UDS) and connections would know exactly where they stand.

At this stage of her career I'd avoid Cheltenham and save her for Aintree/Punchestown.

NaiveMelodies · 10-02-2014 02:57PM

faoile@n wrote: »

At this stage of her career I'd avoid Cheltenham and save her for Aintree/Punchestown.

I agree-If they are genuinely indecisive about what race they want her in, there is no need to run her.

Gringo180 · 10-02-2014 03:12PM

For some reason I still think Jezki will have a big say in this race, looking back at the supreme novices last year if he hadn't of collared the last fence he would of finished a lot closer or may have even won. I think he will improve for decent ground and a truely run race. My only worry would be his jumping but I think he is well worth an each way bet at 12/1.

mdwexford · 10-02-2014 04:04PM

I'd also save AP for Aintree and considering this could be HF last season at his peak there will be a lot less headaches for placing his hurdlers next season.

Hulk Hands · 10-02-2014 04:13PM

The only reason she was kept over hurdles this year was the possibility of winning a big prize(s) in spring. Why delay her career path a year to keep her at home for the biggest week of all. She'll go to one, looking increasingly likely that it'll be the world hurdle, a path I didn't think likely at all but from what I've heard since, seems to be the one.

Malarkey121 · 10-02-2014 04:30PM

faoile@n wrote: »

You sound like someone who has backed her for the Champion Hurdle.

At this stage of her career I'd avoid Cheltenham and save her for Aintree/Punchestown.

I haven't backed AP, well that's not totally true I do have an ante post e/w lucky 15 that includes her for the Champion at 20's but that's for small buttons before December with Cue Card and I believe the other 2 selections wont be lining up.
I have had no serious bet on her for the Champion or the World, I have backed others for those races.

Id save her too and as I explained in my first post I wouldn't be totally surprised if they did hold onto her, fascinating potential and interesting to see how it pans out.

mdwexford · 10-02-2014 05:15PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

The only reason she was kept over hurdles this year was the possibility of winning a big prize(s) in spring. Why delay her career path a year to keep her at home for the biggest week of all. She'll go to one, looking increasingly likely that it'll be the world hurdle, a path I didn't think likely at all but from what I've heard since, seems to be the one.

The Aintree hurdle doesn't carry the same prestige as the festival main races but it's still worth 115k or so compared to the 150k of the World Hurdle so keeping her fresh for that isn't delaying her career at all really.

Going for the Champion Hurdle would be madness imo, has the be World Hurdle if she goes to Cheltenham but on what she's done so far keeping her fresh for Aintree would be a decent decision.

Panrich · 10-02-2014 05:56PM

mdwexford wrote: »

The Aintree hurdle doesn't carry the same prestige as the festival main races but it's still worth 115k or so compared to the 150k of the World Hurdle so keeping her fresh for that isn't delaying her career at all really.

Going for the Champion Hurdle would be madness imo, has the be World Hurdle if she goes to Cheltenham but on what she's done so far keeping her fresh for Aintree would be a decent decision.

There's one of two things going on with AP.
1: She's not as good as some think and has been campaigned cleverly to maximize her winnings and value as a potential broodmare. This would explain why she has never appeared in a genuine G1 race against top class two milers. If that's the case they will certainly not throw her in against HF et al in the champion hurdle and might even duck the World Hurdle too although she has good enough form in the book for the latter.
2: She has surprised connections in how she has progressed and therefore the plans are changing. WM has thrown HF as his only real dart at the big prizes in Ireland this winter and has not contested the cross channel trials either. AP and UDS are both short of experience against top class opposition and it's now really too late to address. If AP is improving at a rate of knots, it's a shame but there are still nice prizes at Aintree and Punchestown. I think Ricci would be upset if HF does his usual victory lap at Punchestown while his mare is at home in her stable.

Hulk Hands · 10-02-2014 06:22PM

It's neither of those things. They knew she was a potential superstar at the start of this year, that's the sole reason they didn't embark on a novice chasing career because they thought she'd be good enough to properly contest some of these big spring championship hurdles. Ricci has said all this in an interview. Her talent should be unquestioned at this stage given that she's hammered a good Aintree hurdle winner twice. There was no guarantee HF at 10 would come back as good, or a guarantee that they'd get Quevega to Cheltenham. Now that they have, the team is stuck in a hard place. Run her in the best champion hurdle in a long time against the stable's best horse or risk bottoming her out in a 3 mile slog, and ruin her bright future (possible Gold Cup horse). From what ive heard (could easily be hearsay), Mullins doesnt think she'll have the speed on goodish ground to win such a hot champion hurdle, which would suggets WH, although I dont think that's ideal either. Soft ground changes things. Waiting for Aintree does seem logical, but I really think they'll bite the bullet finally. She can always do both, and will be at no more of an inconvinience than any other likely winner of the Aintree race.

hucklebuck · 10-02-2014 06:50PM

Blah blah

hucklebuck · 10-02-2014 06:51PM

Why do you all think she will have to go to Cheltenham, Aintree or Punchestown. She could very easily go to the World Hurdle and one of the other 2

Anyway UDS has to go to the Champion, he just bloody has to!

Huntley · 10-02-2014 06:59PM

The reason Annie Power isn't chasing this season is because of Champagne Fever.

If you are specifically keeping a horse over hurdles for a big race then there will be a proper, targeted campaign. Annie Power's season has consisted of a pot hunting mission while connections twiddle their thumbs.

ste2010 · 10-02-2014 07:51PM

hucklebuck wrote: »

Why do you all think she will have to go to Cheltenham, Aintree or Punchestown.

Your right she'll probably turn up at cartmel in march

Panrich · 10-02-2014 09:39PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

It's neither of those things. They knew she was a potential superstar at the start of this year, that's the sole reason they didn't embark on a novice chasing career because they thought she'd be good enough to properly contest some of these big spring championship hurdles. Ricci has said all this in an interview. Her talent should be unquestioned at this stage given that she's hammered a good Aintree hurdle winner twice. There was no guarantee HF at 10 would come back as good, or a guarantee that they'd get Quevega to Cheltenham. Now that they have, the team is stuck in a hard place. Run her in the best champion hurdle in a long time against the stable's best horse or risk bottoming her out in a 3 mile slog, and ruin her bright future (possible Gold Cup horse). From what ive heard (could easily be hearsay), Mullins doesnt think she'll have the speed on goodish ground to win such a hot champion hurdle, which would suggets WH, although I dont think that's ideal either. Soft ground changes things. Waiting for Aintree does seem logical, but I really think they'll bite the bullet finally. She can always do both, and will be at no more of an inconvinience than any other likely winner of the Aintree race.

Well they've taken a very curious route to the best hurdle races if they valued her that highly all along. As has been pointed out she has no experience at two mile championship pace. There have been several trials all season here and across the water yet Mullins didnt send her to any of them.

Hulk Hands · 10-02-2014 10:06PM

She's been running in plenty of races which could be considered decent preps for a world hurdle trial. They're hardly gonna run her in the Cleeve and risk bottoming her on heavy ground. It's hardly been egg and spoon races either. She picked up nice prizes, and has got travel and track experience. Looks a perfect campaign thus far

Panrich · 11-02-2014 12:01AM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

She's been running in plenty of races which could be considered decent preps for a world hurdle trial. They're hardly gonna run her in the Cleeve and risk bottoming her on heavy ground. It's hardly been egg and spoon races either. She picked up nice prizes, and has got travel and track experience. Looks a perfect campaign thus far

So the first point of my previous post is close to the mark. They obviously never thought she's got the pace for a champion hurdle If her prep has been all about the stayers all along. I amongst many others would have liked to have seen her get a chance at the shorter distance in a genuine champion hurdle trial. The Cleeve is a trial fot the WH so that doesn't count.

hucklebuck · 11-02-2014 09:03AM

ste2010 wrote: »

You're right she'll probably turn up at cartmel in march

FYP smart arse....

I think you mean she will win the World Hurdle pulling a cart in March.

zpehtsfd · 11-02-2014 02:08PM

Graham Cunninghams comments on where AP should go:

"6: Should Annie Power run in the Champion or the World Hurdle?
To answer this question simply ask yourself another, namely "which race would AP be going for if Hurricane Fly wasn't around?"It's long odds on she would be Champion bound and those who feel she should go for the World Hurdle need to counter the following facts. First, she has never raced over three miles; second, she's unbeaten over two miles and Ruby Walsh said "I didn't really get her settled until the second last" over that trip at Donny on her latest start; third, she would be top rated for the Champion on Timeform figures with her mares' allowance; and fourth, the presence of her freewheeling stablemate Un De Sceaux promises to make this year's Champion a very strong stamina test. The very best two milers belong in the best two mile races and Annie Power is clearly one of the best two milers aged just six. There is ample time for her to step up to three miles later on, but she has earned a crack at this year's Champion. Others will disagree, but it would be a real shame if the fact that her stable houses the reigning champ is used to shoehorn her into a World Hurdle which will be easier to win but carries nothing like the same prestige."

Spot on GC.

BumperD · 11-02-2014 02:16PM

She hasn't yet contested one 2m championship race this season. Letting her taste that for the first time in the CH would be a shame. It's a very strong renewal this year and i doubt she'd even beat her own stablemates, let alone the rest if the contenders that are still potentially lining up. If the WH is easier, route her there. If quevega doesn't make, line her up there. If the CH really cuts up over the next few weeks (ie 3 or 4 at the top of the market drop away), then consider that route.

GC must have a few ante post dockets for her in the CH( which will likely be losing dockets)

zpehtsfd · 11-02-2014 02:49PM

BumperD wrote: »

She hasn't yet contested one 2m championship race this season. Letting her taste that for the first time in the CH would be a shame.

I wouldn't consider the most recent championship races that HF won anything near the pace that he will encounter at Cheltenham. They are Grade 1 by name only. Also there have been a few past CH winners that have been campaigned in lesser then Grade 1 races prior to winning it. There really is nothing that comes close to the CH on the day.

doubt she'd even beat her own stablemates, let alone the rest if the contenders that are still potentially lining up

So you have some doubt?

BumperD · 11-02-2014 02:52PM

I'm happy enough WM will do what's right by the horse and will ignore any media clamour. He has a reasonably successful record to date of campaigning nh horses...:)

prettyboy81 · 11-02-2014 09:38PM

Hopefully on the Tuesday we see the horses below line up & we get the race of the festival.

The Champ - Hurricane Fly

The Pretenders - TNO, MTOY, Annie, Our Conor, Jezki

The Wildcard - UDS

2014 Champion Hurdle

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