Depressing Dublin House prices

barks1990 · 22-12-2013 8:07pm #1

I was trying to save up for a mortgage and when i finally got the mortgage approved, deposit together etc.The prices have now gone up to ridiculous levels what do you people reckon sit back and see what happens or try get something now as they may rise even higher than 20% by this time next year(so im told).

Any advice and are any of you in the same boat?

regards

jd1983 · 22-12-2013 9:33pm

barks1990 wrote: »

I was trying to save up for a mortgage and when i finally got the mortgage approved, deposit together etc.The prices have now gone up to ridiculous levels what do you people reckon sit back and see what happens or try get something now as they may rise even higher than 20% by this time next year(so im told).

Any advice and are any of you in the same boat?

regards

If you reckon 20% rises will happen, then I'd hold off. 20% rises in just one year is definitely bubble territory and therefore going by historical trends worldwide the bubble will definitely pop, POP!!!

Muahahaha · 23-12-2013 12:47am

There was an article in todays Sindo predicting "up to" 30% increases in property prices in 2014. They didn't for one minute mention that a 30% increase is severe bubble territory but it is, in which case you'd be better off not getting involved and waiting for it to pop

Mrs OBumble · 23-12-2013 10:14am

A buyer who does not have to wait for a previous property to sell is in the best position ever.

So - you keep looking, but over a long time. There are some good prices to be had, just not many, so you cannot assume they will be on the market at the time you are looking.

Also, consider again what features you would be willing to compromise on, and keep an open mind.

Years ago, I thought I was looking for a 3brm standalone house, complete with back lawn and fence. Ended up with a 3brm unit in a townhouse complex, with almost no section at all. But it ticked all my other boxes, was cheaper than I'd expected to pay, and rents out really really well.

Barely Hedged · 23-12-2013 10:52am

jd1983 wrote: »

If you reckon 20% rises will happen, then I'd hold off. 20% rises in just one year is definitely bubble territory and therefore going by historical trends worldwide the bubble will definitely pop, POP!!!

20% relative to what?

House valued at €450k in 2007 rises 20%. Absolute increase = €140k

Same house valued at €200k in 2013 rises 20%. Absolute increase = €40k

moxin · 23-12-2013 11:07am

As always when deciphering from the media hype, each area is different. Some prices have gone up, some have not at all in other areas. You'll know in your particular area by watching the market to make a decision.

lima · 23-12-2013 11:12am

Check out sites such as daftdrop and you will see there are still many many houses (the majority) going down in value.

Careful reading on this site, there are some people who are in negative equity who believe the current price rise is a natural cause and that prices are going to rise forever.

I've been holding out for 1.5 years now, but I have a nice place that I am renting. I reckon at the very best, prices are stabilizing and now would be a good time to buy, but the severe lack of stock in Dublin means that there is almost nothing to chose from.

Also Repossessions will increase in 2014 thank god, so this will add some stock to the market also.

spaceHopper · 23-12-2013 11:18am

I am so happy I didn't buy during the boom and I came under a lot of presure from my father to buy with offers of help... I felt bad that everybody else had bought and I hadn't. In the end meet a girl, got married... and bought last year.

I'm happy to be not looking now but if I were you I'd follow my instinst. The papers had it wrong before and have vested interest in talking up the maket it sell paper and advertising. We had it will never end then well maybe a soft landing and in the end bottom called at the start of every selling season, three times a year.

It's very hard to call the market in Dublin right now as there is no supply so that is driving prices - if that changes and banks stop holding on to houses then I'd expect prices to drop just as fast as they went up.

I you think prices will keep rising then buy now - if not hold of. But I'd keep looking you never know what you'll find. Remember you have to live somewhere and only make a loss when you sell. Do the maths on how much it would cost you to own v rent, if you plan on staying there 10+ years and not need to move for work then the own v rent equation is all that matters.

Also unless it's been renovated there is no such thing as a 30 year old house you can move into, you will always end up doing work.

jd1983 · 23-12-2013 11:33am

Barely Hedged wrote: »

20% relative to what?

House valued at €450k in 2007 rises 20%. Absolute increase = €140k

Same house valued at €200k in 2013 rises 20%. Absolute increase = €40k

FYI, 20% of 450k is 90k.

The OP was speaking in fairly general terms and therefore so was i. 20% average annual rises is not sustainable. Map this trend out over 5 yrs and see what happens to prices.

Barely Hedged · 23-12-2013 11:45am

jd1983 wrote: »

FYI, 20% of 450k is 90k.

The OP was speaking in fairly general terms and therefore so was i. 20% average annual rises is not sustainable. Map this trend out over 5 yrs and see what happens to prices.

My apologies - was doing two things at once and put the wrong number down.

My opinion is that, I dont think prices will rise at 20% for 5 years. There will be a large percentage jump from a low base and then it will be fairly flat. I think this is due to so many people waiting for obvious signs that the bottom was reached and are now racing to get somewhere. This will ease in a year or two.

In response to the original poster, i think youre never going to see prices as cheap again. Yes, the prices may have jumped from what you were looking at a year or two ago but that was from a very low point and whats 20% of a low price in the grand scheme of things i.e. a 20 year mortgage.

Id get pro-actively looking in the new year

gaius c · 23-12-2013 11:48am

Barely Hedged wrote: »

My apologies - was doing two things at once and put the wrong number down.

My opinion is that, I dont think prices will rise at 20% for 5 years. There will be a large percentage jump from a low base and then it will be fairly flat. I think this is due to so many people waiting for obvious signs that the bottom was reached and are now racing to get somewhere. This will ease in a year or two.

In response to the original poster, i think youre never going to see prices as cheap again. Yes, the prices may have jumped from what you were looking at a year or two ago but that was from a very low point and whats 20% of a low price in the grand scheme of things i.e. a 20 year mortgage.

Id get pro-actively looking in the new year

Dublin was cheap?
Seriously?

shamrock2004 · 23-12-2013 11:49am

Same here. Was approved for a mortgage. Had the deposit saved too. Bank manager wasn't too concerned by the deposit as said bank is lending up to 92%. The problem however is that what they will lend me won't get me a house, perhaps an apartment but I wouldn't buy an apartment. So, i'm stuck renting for the time being. I have a good secure job also, however I'm still of the opinion that the banks are still reluctant to lend. I'll wait for another yet anyway and see what happens.

Barely Hedged · 23-12-2013 11:50am

gaius c wrote: »

Dublin was cheap?
Seriously?

Yes. Price drops of 60% - 70%, from admittedly high points, but large drops none-the-less

moxin · 23-12-2013 11:56am

shamrock2004 wrote: »

Same here. Was approved for a mortgage. Had the deposit saved too. Bank manager wasn't too concerned by the deposit as said bank is lending up to 92%. The problem however is that what they will lend me won't get me a house, perhaps an apartment but I wouldn't buy an apartment. So, i'm stuck renting for the time being. I have a good secure job also, however I'm still of the opinion that the banks are still reluctant to lend. I'll wait for another yet anyway and see what happens.

Which fits precisely with the fact that alot of sales are cash buyers and the banks did row back on the salary multiples for lending back around August\Sept. This will hit the market eventually as provisional mortgage approvals that were approved pre-August will run out and have to be renewed at the new mortgage lending levels.

shamrock2004 · 23-12-2013 12:02pm

moxin wrote: »

Which fits precisely with the fact that alot of sales are cash buyers and the banks did row back on the salary multiples for lending back around August\Sept. This will hit the market eventually as provisional mortgage approvals that were approved pre-August will run out and have to be renewed at the new mortgage lending levels.

Spot on. It all came down to salary and ability to repay, yet the rent I pay at the moment is considerably more than the anticipated monthly repayments of the mortgage I was approved for. When do you think this will hit the market?

moxin · 23-12-2013 12:18pm

Problem with rents is that there are many in the same boat as yourself hence keeping a bit of demand there. If you're asking about interest rates, we rely on the ECB to jack them up, it will be a long while yet for that. At present there is a mini-rush(like last year) to complete sales due to the LPT exemption running out. Together with the new mortgage approval levels very low(as described) and the rate of Dublin price increases having fallen every month since Sept, it looks like the market will be dead for vendors in Jan.

spaceHopper · 23-12-2013 1:01pm

CSO figures out to day show the maket cooling a bit, could be time of year and all that but 46% of sales are cash that has to dry up sooner or later.

The Spider · 23-12-2013 1:07pm

gaius c wrote: »

Dublin was cheap?
Seriously?

Plenty of houses in Dublin that are below 150'000 for a 3 bed.

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?s%5Bcc_id%5D=ct1&s%5Ba_id%5D=&s%5Bmnp%5D=&s%5Bmxp%5D=150000&s%5Bmnb%5D=3&s%5Bmxb%5D=&s%5Bmna%5D=&s%5Bmxa%5D=&s%5Bpt_id%5D=1&search=1&s%5Bsearch_type%5D=sale&s%5Brefreshmap%5D=1&search_type=sale

In fact there's a fair few houses that are sub 100,000, cheap for a capital city by any rate.

handlemaster · 23-12-2013 1:24pm

The spider there are quiet a few on that list alright. I see Dublin continuing to move up next year maybe up same as this year 15%. People on here seem to this repossessions are going to drop on the market all together and will bring prices overall down. Reposessions won't all come together at once never mind the same county. Also house building stopped 5 years ago. The banks will eventually start lending when more confidence comes that will drive prices also.

gaius c · 23-12-2013 2:06pm

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Yes. Price drops of 60% - 70%, from admittedly high points, but large drops none-the-less

You mean they were cheap compared to bubble-era prices?

I don't think that's what Barely Hedged was saying. He said they were cheap point blank. I asked him when.

A bottle of whiskey priced at €1000 is not cheap. When it drops to €300, it's still not cheap.

Barely Hedged · 23-12-2013 2:14pm

gaius c wrote: »

You mean they were cheap compared to bubble-era prices?

I don't think that's what Barely Hedged was saying. He said they were cheap point blank. I asked him when.

A bottle of whiskey priced at €1000 is not cheap. When it drops to €300, it's still not cheap.

Yes, cheap compared to bubble era prices.

You asked me when in your response? Dont see that.

Well that depends on how much youre willing to pay for a bottle of whiskey. I dont get what the link is here as its not directly comparable

spaceHopper · 23-12-2013 2:25pm

Here is the head line to monitor http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/1223/494499-mortgage-approvals/ less people are looking for mortgages, ok they are looking from more in line with rises in dublin but still less are willing to buy.

lufties · 23-12-2013 2:27pm

spaceHopper wrote: »

I am so happy I didn't buy during the boom and I came under a lot of presure from my father to buy with offers of help... I felt bad that everybody else had bought and I hadn't. In the end meet a girl, got married... and bought last year.

I'm happy to be not looking now but if I were you I'd follow my instinst. The papers had it wrong before and have vested interest in talking up the maket it sell paper and advertising. We had it will never end then well maybe a soft landing and in the end bottom called at the start of every selling season, three times a year.

It's very hard to call the market in Dublin right now as there is no supply so that is driving prices - if that changes and banks stop holding on to houses then I'd expect prices to drop just as fast as they went up.

I you think prices will keep rising then buy now - if not hold of. But I'd keep looking you never know what you'll find. Remember you have to live somewhere and only make a loss when you sell. Do the maths on how much it would cost you to own v rent, if you plan on staying there 10+ years and not need to move for work then the own v rent equation is all that matters.

Also unless it's been renovated there is no such thing as a 30 year old house you can move into, you will always end up doing work.

I was advised to buy in 2008 by a co-worker, thank fook I didn't, I kinda regret not buying in 2011 though when prices in south dublin had probably bottomed out.

As for for that rag the independent, I absolutely despise it, pure propaganda and the meeja manipulating the public. Its like history repeating itself.

lima · 23-12-2013 2:30pm

handlemaster wrote: »

The spider there are quiet a few on that list alright. I see Dublin continuing to move up next year maybe up same as this year 15%. People on here seem to this repossessions are going to drop on the market all together and will bring prices overall down. Reposessions won't all come together at once never mind the same county. Also house building stopped 5 years ago. The banks will eventually start lending when more confidence comes that will drive prices also.

Keep thinking that lads, the recent rises are declining. The mini-boom is decreasing, despite what you and the Independent try to push!

The Spider · 23-12-2013 2:34pm

lima wrote: »

Keep thinking that lads, the recent rises are declining. The mini-boom is decreasing, despite what you and the Independent try to push!

Yes, you missed the latest meeting of the VI's where we sat around drinking brandy and smoking fine cigars wondering how we could inflate the property market to stratospheric heights.

Facts are facts, limited supply, no building, increased demand = rising prices for both rents and houses in desirable areas.

However I did point out that there's still a substantial amount of houses in Dublin sub 150,000, which are reasonable prices.

jd1983 · 23-12-2013 2:34pm

Barely Hedged wrote: »

My apologies - was doing two things at once and put the wrong number down.

My opinion is that, I dont think prices will rise at 20% for 5 years. There will be a large percentage jump from a low base and then it will be fairly flat. I think this is due to so many people waiting for obvious signs that the bottom was reached and are now racing to get somewhere. This will ease in a year or two.

In response to the original poster, i think youre never going to see prices as cheap again. Yes, the prices may have jumped from what you were looking at a year or two ago but that was from a very low point and whats 20% of a low price in the grand scheme of things i.e. a 20 year mortgage.

Id get pro-actively looking in the new year

Ok, so the mythical "soft landing" will in fact happen this time?

In Dublin prices rose by 15%, if they rise by 20% next year then that's a rise of > 35% in just two years. To me that sounds like a mini bubble and by definition bubbles pop.

If prices do level off then the OP could then buy in a more stable market in a few years time safe in the knowledge that prices won't fluctuate much. However if they buy now in this cash fuelled market then they have the worry that prices might plummet when cash reserves dry up.

What you're advocating is panic buying and in my experience that never ends well.

Barely Hedged · 23-12-2013 2:35pm

lima wrote: »

Keep thinking that lads, the recent rises are declining. The mini-boom is decreasing, despite what you and the Independent try to push!

I would say next year, places where price rises have occurred this year will see growth of between 5% and 10%.

I see the lack of supply in these areas as one of the main reasons for it.

What sort of an increase/decrease do you think will happen next year in these areas and why?

moxin · 23-12-2013 2:39pm

The Spider wrote: »

However I did point out that there's still a substantial amount of houses in Dublin sub 150,000, which are reasonable prices.

Some of them are in anti-social behaviour hotspots aka dodgeville, bet you wouldn't live there. Stop trying to pass those houses off as "liveable", its a tiresome effort at deflection.

Barely Hedged · 23-12-2013 2:44pm

jd1983 wrote: »

Ok, so the mythical "soft landing" will in fact happen this time?

In Dublin prices rose by 15%, if they rise by 20% next year then that's a rise of > 35% in just two years. To me that sounds like a mini bubble and by definition bubbles pop.

If prices do level off then the OP could then buy in a more stable market in a few years time safe in the knowledge that prices won't fluctuate much. However if they buy now in this cash fuelled market then they have the worry that prices might plummet when cash reserves dry up.

What you're advocating is panic buying and in my experience that never ends well.

Im not advocating panic buying. Taken in context, prices have fallen quite considerably. They realistically cant fall any further that would result in a bad investment decision for the original poster if you consider a time horizon of 20 years and him/her buying tomorrow.

Sometimes you need to s**t or get off the pot and now i believe is a good time to s**t. Large price drops will not happen again in the areas described by the original poster.

The cash reserves drying up assumption seems to be based on the belief that the cash buyers are Irish based only.

The Spider · 23-12-2013 2:45pm

moxin wrote: »

Some of them are in anti-social behaviour hotspots aka dodgeville, bet you wouldn't live there. Stop trying to pass those houses off as "liveable", its a tiresome effort at deflection.

Not really, if you can't afford to buy in the more desirable parts of the city (SCD) then that's what you're left with, you may see these areas as places that you should be able to buy, but if your salary isn't up to it or your savings then, you have to look to other areas or outside.

It isn't deflection, I wish people would say what they mean, they say house prices are too expensive in Dublin, not true what they really mean is "I want a house in the most exclusive part of the country but I want it cheap."

The reason it's expensive is because it's exclusive, if it was cheap then you'd have the associated problems that you get with Tallaght etc.

Anyway some of those areas in the sub 150,000 category were considered decent areas in the boom, when everyone was buying way outside Dublin.

lima · 23-12-2013 2:48pm

Barely Hedged wrote: »

I would say next year, places where price rises have occurred this year will see growth of between 5% and 10%.

I see the lack of supply in these areas as one of the main reasons for it.

What sort of an increase/decrease do you think will happen next year in these areas and why?

Perhaps some people will come to a realization that south dublin is completely overpriced and they will decide to live elsewhere in Dublin where there is lots of supply.

Also, the people who have been able to get mortgages and who likely have very large deposits of 200+k will have gotten their mortgages and have bought their houses. This will bring down the amount of people looking for mortgages. Very few people in their 20's will have large deposits and will struggle to get finance.

Also, regarding inevitable repossessions and whether they will have an impact on Dublin prices, an entire bank has decided not to offer mortgage products here because of its worry about lack of repossessions. This point to a private company making an informed decision and lends weight to the idea of possible price decreases, despite what journal.ie and irish independent try to push.

moxin · 23-12-2013 2:50pm

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Sometimes you need to s**t or get off the pot and now i believe is a good time to s**t. Large price drops will not happen again in the areas described by the original poster.

The cash reserves drying up assumption seems to be based on the belief that the cash buyers are Irish based only.

The OP never described the areas he/she was looking at. All we have to go on is "Dublin" with no target price range mentioned either.

You also have the assumption that foreign investors will continue to invest. There will be a point where the rental return will not justify an investment if these price rises continue at such a high rate. Plus other countries can show better returns in such a scenario.

GreeBo · 23-12-2013 2:52pm

What changes do you think are going to hit the market regarding the banks lending multiplier?

I was offered about 3.5 times my salary 6 months or so ago. Do you think that will have increased if I look to apply again?

jon1981 · 23-12-2013 2:56pm

GreeBo wrote: »

What changes do you think are going to hit the market regarding the banks lending multiplier?

I was offered about 3.5 times my salary 6 months or so ago. Do you think that will have increased if I look to apply again?

Unlikely, two of us in good paying stable jobs and 3.5 was the limit we were given (3 months ago), was still enough to buy in a nice location.

moxin · 23-12-2013 2:57pm

The Spider wrote: »

Not really, if you can't afford to buy in the more desirable parts of the city (SCD) then that's what you're left with, you may see these areas as places that you should be able to buy, but if your salary isn't up to it or your savings then, you have to look to other areas or outside.

It isn't deflection, I wish people would say what they mean, they say house prices are too expensive in Dublin, not true what they really mean is "I want a house in the most exclusive part of the country but I want it cheap."

The reason it's expensive is because it's exclusive, if it was cheap then you'd have the associated problems that you get with Tallaght etc.

Anyway some of those areas in the sub 150,000 category were considered decent areas in the boom, when everyone was buying way outside Dublin.

You are deflecting again.

SCD is exclusive with prices of 500k upwards at today's prices. The vast majority of people in Dublin do not live in houses valued at 500k+, they live in houses valued up to 300k in my view. That is not exclusive, its the standard.

What you have highlighted are houses in the really dodgiest parts of Dublin. There are plenty of areas which are NOT exclusive and priced in the 150k to 300k range for a prospective buyer and yet they are still too expensive.

jon1981 · 23-12-2013 2:57pm

lima wrote: »

Perhaps some people will come to a realization that south dublin is completely overpriced and they will decide to live elsewhere in Dublin where there is lots of supply.

Everyone wants to live in south Dublin these days, I used to be one of those until I looked at some places on the north side, there are some lovely spots on the northside in which contrary to belief you do not need a bullet proof vest to walk around. Also the prices are rising but not as fast as south Dublin.

Potatoeman · 23-12-2013 3:00pm

As long as you buy something your happy to live in and willing to make the payments you should be fine. I held off during the boom as prices were rising ridicusly every year. I will have to buy in the next few years if Im going to as Im in my thirties.

Barely Hedged · 23-12-2013 3:01pm

lima wrote: »

Perhaps some people will come to a realization that south dublin is completely overpriced and they will decide to live elsewhere in Dublin where there is lots of supply.

Also, the people who have been able to get mortgages and who likely have very large deposits of 200+k will have gotten their mortgages and have bought their houses. This will bring down the amount of people looking for mortgages. Very few people in their 20's will have large deposits and will struggle to get finance.

Also, regarding inevitable repossessions and whether they will have an impact on Dublin prices, an entire bank has decided not to offer mortgage products here because of its worry about lack of repossessions. This point to a private company making an informed decision and lends weight to the idea of possible price decreases, despite what journal.ie and irish independent try to push.

Maybe they will or maybe prices in South Dublin will increase between 5% - 10% because people want to live in a desirable location. A lot of South Dublin is mature housing stock where no new building is occurring and will command a premium on other areas. Supply is severely restricted in those areas.

Thats one company/bank. Conversely, a lot of companies have bought apartment blocks in Dublin too as they see value there. Why would a bank dump its non-performing liabilities onto the market all in go that would result in depressing market prices?

GreeBo · 23-12-2013 3:02pm

jon1981 wrote: »

Everyone wants to live in south Dublin these days, I used to be one of those until I looked at some places on the north side, there are some lovely spots on the northside in which contrary to belief you do not need a bullet proof vest to walk around. Also the prices are rising but not as fast as south Dublin.

I agree with this.
But its hard to give up on that "dream" if thats all that you've ever known and thats where you grew up.

Prices in general might be going down, but, for example, they arent ever going to build more houses in Churchtown. Whats there now is all there will ever be, so if you want to live there you have to pay for it.

jon1981 · 23-12-2013 3:06pm

GreeBo wrote: »

I agree with this.
But its hard to give up on that "dream" if thats all that you've ever known and thats where you grew up.

Prices in general might be going down, but, for example, they arent ever going to build more houses in Churchtown. Whats there now is all there will ever be, so if you want to live there you have to pay for it.

I think that's what alot of people are forgetting, where are all these new builds going to take place? I don't see an abundance of land in Clontarf, raheny, killester, rathmines, ranelagh, clonskeagh, stillorgan, milltown, donnybrook....etc. all the areas ppl want to live in!

Barely Hedged · 23-12-2013 3:07pm

moxin wrote: »

The OP never described the areas he/she was looking at. All we have to go on is "Dublin" with no target price range mentioned either.

You also have the assumption that foreign investors will continue to invest. There will be a point where the rental return will not justify an investment if these price rises continue at such a high rate. Plus other countries can show better returns in such a scenario.

By implication he has. He was amazed at the house price increases this year and where in the country has that occurred?

There is no capital gains tax for 7 years after buying a property in Ireland. If i was a foreign cash investor, id look at that and think if i bought in bulk (or not), get a good discount (i still consider individual prices cheap) and wait the 7 years for some capital appreciation i could trouser a nice tax free profit?

Thats a pretty tempting offer to foreign investors

Potatoeman · 23-12-2013 3:08pm

moxin wrote: »

You are deflecting again.

SCD is exclusive with prices of 500k upwards at today's prices. The vast majority of people in Dublin do not live in houses valued at 500k+, they live in houses valued up to 300k in my view. That is not exclusive, its the standard.

What you have highlighted are houses in the really dodgiest parts of Dublin. There are plenty of areas which are NOT exclusive and priced in the 150k to 300k range for a prospective buyer and yet they are still too expensive.

500k is ridicilious,what would you need to be earning to pay that off? What happens when you want to have kids andone person has to stop working?

jon1981 · 23-12-2013 3:10pm

Potatoeman wrote: »

500k is ridicilious,what would you need to be earning to pay that off? What happens when you want to have kids andone person has to stop working?

You either get a higher paid job ....or you plan for that event and buy within budget...unfortunately the laws of economics aren't designed around your family plans.

The Spider · 23-12-2013 3:12pm

moxin wrote: »

You are deflecting again.

SCD is exclusive with prices of 500k upwards at today's prices. The vast majority of people in Dublin do not live in houses valued at 500k+, they live in houses valued up to 300k in my view. That is not exclusive, its the standard.

What you have highlighted are houses in the really dodgiest parts of Dublin. There are plenty of areas which are NOT exclusive and priced in the 150k to 300k range for a prospective buyer and yet they are still too expensive.

Ok name some of the areas you find too expensive outside of SCD, I posted up a link to illustrate that there were houses sub 150k in Dublin.

Again if you can't afford the price in these areas, you'll maybe have to look elsewhere, I did. You can always rent in these areas if you can't buy.

Look everyone has to make their own decisions I personally can't see prices dropping without some massive external shock. All the mature desirable areas are always going to carry a premium for the simple reason there's nowhere left to build houses in those areas (as has been mentioned)

Potatoeman · 23-12-2013 3:15pm

jon1981 wrote: »

You either get a higher paid job ....or you plan for that event and buy within budget...unfortunately the laws of economics aren't designed around your family plans.

Im wondering if there are enough people earning enough to pay that. One thing the boom thought us that many couldnt.

Barely Hedged · 23-12-2013 3:19pm

Potatoeman wrote: »

Im wondering if there are enough people earning enough to pay that. One thing the boom thought us that many couldnt.

I know a lot of people that can, are looking and can comfortably pay it. Im out of college 6 years and work as a professional, like the people im referring to

jon1981 · 23-12-2013 3:20pm

Potatoeman wrote: »

Im wondering if there are enough people earning enough to pay that. One thing the boom thought us that many couldnt.

I imagine though alot of these 500k houses are being snapped up with a high amount of cash and small amount of mortgage to supplement. Will be interesting to see if they hold their value next year when apparently the cash buyers are gone.

If the banks are hard on the 3.5 - 4 times mortgage to salary ratio , and the average couple earn what 100k? There will only be a small buyer group out there... however irrespective of the 100% cash buyer, there are alot of couples out there that have 20%+ of the house purchase price ...

GreeBo · 23-12-2013 3:21pm

Potatoeman wrote: »

Im wondering if there are enough people earning enough to pay that. One thing the boom thought us that many couldnt.

Potatoeman wrote: »

500k is ridicilious,what would you need to be earning to pay that off? What happens when you want to have kids andone person has to stop working?

There are lots of couples (and individuals for that matter) who can afford that an more.

There are a crap load of accountants, consultants, dentists, doctors out there who would pull in 150k+ a year and have done for a good few years.

The Industrial average might be around 27k (or whatever) but that just means that there are lots of people way, way above that too.

Add in a "successful, professional" couple and you are easily talking 600+

Now they work/life balance of these people might be frightening to some of us, but thats a different conversation.

Barely Hedged · 23-12-2013 3:23pm

jon1981 wrote: »

I imagine though alot of these 500k houses are being snapped up with a high amount of cash and small amount of mortgage to supplement. Will be interesting to see if they hold their value next year when apparently the cash buyers are gone.

If the banks are hard on the 3.5 - 4 times mortgage to salary ratio , and the average couple earn what 100k? There will only be a small buyer group out there... however irrespective of the 100% cash buyer, there are alot of couples out there that have 20%+ of the house purchase price ...

If you have good deposit, the banks will look favourably on this, even considering the 3.5-4 ratio.

Essentially by paying the deposit, if they need to repossess, a large amount of the equity will already have been paid and they can sell safe in the knowledge they wont get burned

GreeBo · 23-12-2013 3:25pm

I'm in the market to buy at the moment, on my own, the bank will give me ~3.5 times my salary and I have a large deposit that I can use, my concern is finding something that I wouldnt mind living in for the rest of my days.

At the moment, in SCD that probably means buying an executors sale and doing it up (myself) or buying a temporary house/apartment and seeing what the market (and my personal situation) does over the next couple of years. I'm assuming I'm not alone in this position.

That said, when I went to a few open days around SCD (Ballinteer, Sandyford) there were 10s of couples wandering around, with people offering 381k on a house that needed to be gutted and was next door to a petrol station on a busy road.

I got the feeling of panic buying in the air again, especially for "family" homes in SCD.

moxin · 23-12-2013 3:32pm

The Spider wrote: »

Ok name some of the areas you find too expensive outside of SCD, I posted up a link to illustrate that there were houses sub 150k in Dublin.

Again if you can't afford the price in these areas, you'll maybe have to look elsewhere, I did. You can always rent in these areas if you can't buy.

Look everyone has to make their own decisions I personally can't see prices dropping without some massive external shock. All the mature desirable areas are always going to carry a premium for the simple reason there's nowhere left to build houses in those areas (as has been mentioned)

Your argument has been that there are cheap houses right now in Dublin without mentioning the fact they are located in seriously dodgy areas. They are proportionally cheap for a reason. And then you say if one doesn't want to live there(instead of "can't afford" which is not the case) then one would have to look outside Dublin while mentioning the falsehood that the purchaser wants an exclusive area to live in!!

As a northsider who has zero desire to live in SCD, there are houses in areas on the northside which are perfectly safe to live in and are NOT exclusive. On a map one can see these areas stretching from Blanchardstown\Castleknock to Finglas East(the Glasnevin wannabes) and then over to Santry, all in the sub 300k range. Further east you have the likes of parts of Raheny, Baldoyle and parts of Sutton as well in the sub 300k range.

And of course further west there are plenty of sub 300k houses in Lucan\Palmerstown\Chapelizod, point being there are safe non-exclusive areas still out of range of the purchaser.

Depressing Dublin House prices

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