Depressing Dublin House prices

GreeBo

jon1981 wrote: »

Maybe it's the nature of the people i grew up with, but most of my friends are in IT, Finance and Law and would be on a combined salary of more than 120k with their partners.

Exactly. If you went to college 10 years ago, you are probably on at least 50k now (assuming you didnt get made redundant etc)
However, a lot of those people bought 5 years ago, right at the boom because they had disposable income. They are now in negative equity and living somewhere that they really dont want to be. This is why the prices are lower imo. The people would would historically be looking to trade-up are trapped where they are, comfortable on a tracker but living in Maynooth or Naas or Lusk. (for example)

jon1981

GreeBo wrote: »

The people would would historically be looking to trade-up are trapped where they are, comfortable on a tracker but living in Maynooth or Naas or Lusk. (for example)

Speaking of trackers, most of these people although living in an area they would rather have moved on from (the trade up idea) are better off financially because of their trackers. We are paying loads more a month on our mortgage compared with people on trackers with mortgages 100k larger than ours...kills me. But I guess the trade off is we are living in an area we are happy to live in.

moxin

GreeBo wrote: »

100k for a late 20's/early 30's professional couple would be low in my experience.

That's "professionals", not your average couple from all walks of life.

jon1981 wrote: »

According to the CSO it's 41k per person, I've assumed alot of couples out there would well be in reach of 100k based on the average.

I think you're quoting the industrial average? The average for all workers is early 30's, somebody figured it out in a mega-thread in the Irish Economy forum

GreeBo

moxin wrote: »

That's "professionals", not your average couple from all walks of life.

Well the majority of people looking to buy in SCD will be professionals...otherwise they wouldnt be able to afford it!

The Spider

moxin wrote: »

That's "professionals", not your average couple from all walks of life.



I think you're quoting the industrial average? The average for all workers is early 30's, somebody figured it out in a mega-thread in the Irish Economy forum

People looking to buy in SCD are professionals, people on average incomes can look at the houses I posted
Sub 150, which weren't all in Tallaght or jobs town plenty in Blanchardstown and Lucan too.

I can't afford Dalkey should prices come down there do I can afford it?

spockety

The Spider wrote: »

Yes, you missed the latest meeting of the VI's where we sat around drinking brandy and smoking fine cigars wondering how we could inflate the property market to stratospheric heights.

Facts are facts, limited supply, no building, increased demand = rising prices for both rents and houses in desirable areas.

However I did point out that there's still a substantial amount of houses in Dublin sub 150,000, which are reasonable prices.

There is not a single house for sale in Dublin for less than 150k that will not result in you and/or your children being victims of crime or anti social behaviour, or where your street or estate isn't name checked in the courts section of your local paper regularly.

The Spider

spockety wrote: »

There is not a single house for sale in Dublin for less than 150k that will not result in you and/or your children being victims of crime or anti social behaviour, or where your street or estate isn't name checked in the courts section of your local paper regularly.

Exactly and that is the point I'm making, the reason why the houses in SCD are so expensive and beyond the average is because people will pay a premium to live in an area without the issues you mention.

Now if everybody could afford to live there you'd soon have all the above problems. If any Tom Dick or Harry on an average wage could afford a 3 bed in Mount Merrion, you can be guaranteed it wouldn't be a place that everyone aspired to live in.

spockety

There are areas in between. They are over priced for the socio economic demographic of people who should expect to live in them. Yes, I said should expect.

Until that is fixed, our market is still broken.

The Spider

spockety wrote: »

There are areas in between. They are over priced for the socio economic demographic of people who should expect to live in them. Yes, I said should expect.

Until that is fixed, our market is still broken.

Again name the areas, places I would consider exclusive that werent up ghere with Ranelagh or Kilinney and are the kind of areas in the suburbs that people hoped to be able to buy into after the crash are Churchtown, Rathfarnham, Mount Merrion, Cabinteely, Glenageary, Sandyford, Stillorgan, Terenure and lately Ballinteer.

There's probably others but the above areas I suppose are a snapshot of where the middle classes see themselves living, the prices while rising are still way below what was achieved in the boom ( I know you can't compare, but people do).

If a professional couple mange to get a house in any of the above for between 350 and 450, especially if they know that the house was sold in the past for 700+ they will think they got a good deal regardless of the boom or not.

gaius c

GreeBo wrote: »

There are lots of couples (and individuals for that matter) who can afford that an more.

There are a crap load of accountants, consultants, dentists, doctors out there who would pull in 150k+ a year and have done for a good few years.

The Industrial average might be around 27k (or whatever) but that just means that there are lots of people way, way above that too.

Add in a "successful, professional" couple and you are easily talking 600+

Now they work/life balance of these people might be frightening to some of us, but thats a different conversation.

GreeBo wrote: »

Exactly. If you went to college 10 years ago, you are probably on at least 50k now (assuming you didnt get made redundant etc)
However, a lot of those people bought 5 years ago, right at the boom because they had disposable income. They are now in negative equity and living somewhere that they really dont want to be. This is why the prices are lower imo. The people would would historically be looking to trade-up are trapped where they are, comfortable on a tracker but living in Maynooth or Naas or Lusk. (for example)

I'm going to be polite here and suggest that you should meet more people who have graduated in the last ten years. You'll have to travel to Oz to meet a good chunk of them though.

Some facts to add to the debate:

-33% of households have a gross income of less than €30,000;
-56% of households have a gross income of less than €50,000;
-62% of households have a gross income below the mean household income;
-The top 20% of households have a gross income of more than €80,000 per annum;
-14% of household have a gross income above €100,000 per annum; and
-2% of households have gross incomes above €200,000 per annum.

For the "over €150k households, you're looking at something like 5% of the entire population of the state. Households with budgets to blow €500k plus on a house are actually quite limited.

The Spider

gaius c wrote: »

I'm going to be polite here and suggest that you should meet more people who have graduated in the last ten years. You'll have to travel to Oz to meet a good chunk of them though.

Some facts to add to the debate:

For the "over €150k households, you're looking at something like 5% of the entire population of the state. Households with budgets to blow €500k plus on a house are actually quite limited.

What's the size percentage wise of SCD to the rest of the state?

gaius c

The Spider wrote: »

What's the size percentage wise of SCD to the rest of the state?

What's the size percentage wise of the €150k households who don't live in Dublin at all compared to the rest of the €150k households in the state?

The Spider

gaius c wrote: »

What's the size percentage wise of the €150k households who don't live in Dublin at all compared to the rest of the €150k households in the state?

The point is you can't use average salaries to equate the price of property in SCD it's the most desirable area in the country, as proven by the continued rising prices.

People on average household incomes won't be able to afford to live there.

14 percent of household incomes are over 100k what I want to know is, is the entire stock of housing available in SCD 14 percent of the available housing in the state? Is it 2 percent?

If its less than 2 percent you can see why it'll always. E out of reach to people on even above average household income

spockety

The Spider wrote: »

The point is you can't use average salaries to equate the price of property in SCD it's the most desirable area in the country, as proven by the continued rising prices.

People on average household incomes won't be able to afford to live there.

Indeed, but it's a straw man, I have never seem anyone suggest that average house holds should expect to live in dalkey.

Average households should, however, expect to live in historically average areas with average people as neighbours.

The Spider

spockety wrote: »

Indeed, but it's a straw man, I have never seem anyone suggest that average house holds should expect to live in dalkey.

Average households should, however, expect to live in historically average areas with average people as neighbours.

Theres plenty of historically average places in lots of cities that are now very desirable, the past is gone.

spockety

The Spider wrote: »

Theres plenty of historically average places in lots of cities that are now very desirable, the past is gone.

There is a difference between a regeneration or natural gentrification of an area vs the unnatural effects of a property bubble to force market prices to places they really shouldn't be.

gaius c

The Spider wrote: »

The point is you can't use average salaries to equate the price of property in SCD it's the most desirable area in the country, as proven by the continued rising prices.

People on average household incomes won't be able to afford to live there.

14 percent of household incomes are over 100k what I want to know is, is the entire stock of housing available in SCD 14 percent of the available housing in the state? Is it 2 percent?

If its less than 2 percent you can see why it'll always. E out of reach to people on even above average household income

Just as well I didn't use them then.
The report above is median household incomes, not averages and they are a lot more useful as a result.

lima

jon1981 wrote: »

Everyone wants to live in south Dublin these days, I used to be one of those until I looked at some places on the north side, there are some lovely spots on the northside in which contrary to belief you do not need a bullet proof vest to walk around. Also the prices are rising but not as fast as south Dublin.

Yeah but these people are misguided. Being from the northside myself, I never really went to the southside, I still don't go down there at all. But the couple of times I did, I never really noticed any different compared to a lot of north dublin. There are really bad areas in south dublin such as tallaght and ballyfermot.

lima

Barely Hedged wrote: »

Maybe they will or maybe prices in South Dublin will increase between 5% - 10% because people want to live in a desirable location. A lot of South Dublin is mature housing stock where no new building is occurring and will command a premium on other areas. Supply is severely restricted in those areas.

Thats one company/bank. Conversely, a lot of companies have bought apartment blocks in Dublin too as they see value there. Why would a bank dump its non-performing liabilities onto the market all in go that would result in depressing market prices?

One bank is a huge thing. Especially when they announce their reasons to the public domain.

A lot of the southside is very similar to the northside but 'commands' 200k more. You could live in the northside and send your kids to private school and still come out with money, it is funny that people feel they can only live in hte southside but it's their money they are wasting I suppose.

lima

GreeBo wrote: »

I agree with this.
But its hard to give up on that "dream" if thats all that you've ever known and thats where you grew up.

Prices in general might be going down, but, for example, they arent ever going to build more houses in Churchtown. Whats there now is all there will ever be, so if you want to live there you have to pay for it.

I went to Churchtown the other week, it's a pretty ugly/depressing place!

GreeBo

gaius c wrote: »

Just as well I didn't use them then.
The report above is median household incomes, not averages and they are a lot more useful as a result.

Not really. Salaries by and large increase over time, hence there will always be more people at the lower end, swaying the value of the median.

GreeBo

lima wrote: »

I went to Churchtown the other week, it's a pretty ugly/depressing place!

How's it compare to jobstown? I could buy a 3 bed there for 90k last time I looked.

ted1

Potatoeman wrote: »

That's nice but I was hoping for someone that might know the statistics i.e. If it is 500k at 3.5 salary that would need to be a plus 100k salary. I wouldnt think there are too many of those.

Plenty if people out there getting that. I'm in my mid thirties and plenty of my peer group would be on that

GreeBo

gaius c wrote: »

I'm going to be polite here and suggest that you should meet more people who have graduated in the last ten years. You'll have to travel to Oz to meet a good chunk of them though.

Some facts to add to the debate:

For the "over €150k households, you're looking at something like 5% of the entire population of the state. Households with budgets to blow €500k plus on a house are actually quite limited.

I've met lots of people who graduated 10 years ago thanks, and I don't appreciate what you are implying tbh.

Naturally the majority of the people I grew up around are from similar backgrounds and are now living in similar circumstances.
Your stats on people of different backgrounds and circumstances are largely irrelevant to this conversation.

I live and grew up in SCD, I know the sort of people that live there in all the various places that encompass that very large, disparate area. There are plenty of places that I wouldn't be happy to be after dark abd likewise places I couldn't afford to drive through too.

Comparing the population of one of the countries most affluent areas to the average is akin to comparing Dubai to the rest of the area. It looks like a great argument stats wise, but in reality it's telling you nothing.

ted1

GreeBo wrote: »

Exactly. If you went to college 10 years ago, you are probably on at least 50k now (assuming you didnt get made redundant etc)
However, a lot of those people bought 5 years ago, right at the boom because they had disposable income. They are now in negative equity and living somewhere that they really dont want to be. This is why the prices are lower imo. The people would would historically be looking to trade-up are trapped where they are, comfortable on a tracker but living in Maynooth or Naas or Lusk. (for example)

They also have a tracker mortgage and their repayments aren't to much different than what a couple buying a house now at the current price is and at the current interest rates are paying.

lima

ted1 wrote: »

They also have a tracker mortgage and their repayments aren't to much different than what a couple buying a house now at the current price is and at the current interest rates are paying.

But they have a low quality of life living in the middle of knowhere

lima

GreeBo wrote: »

How's it compare to jobstown? I could buy a 3 bed there for 90k last time I looked.

It looked like ugly council houses to me, even though they are probably private. . I've actually never been to jobstown but I've heard it's rough

GreeBo

lima wrote: »

It looked like ugly council houses to me, even though they are probably private. . I've actually never been to jobstown but I've heard it's rough

Check out riverside drive in churchtown...
Were you around nutgrove by any chance?

Like everywhere there are lovely areas, ****ty areas and average areas.

borderlinemeath

lima wrote: »

Yeah but these people are misguided. Being from the northside myself, I never really went to the southside, I still don't go down there at all. But the couple of times I did, I never really noticed any different compared to a lot of north dublin. There are really bad areas in south dublin such as tallaght and ballyfermot.

I was born on the northside, I moved southside when I was in my teens. I lived in the city centre for a few years, then I moved northside again for a few years, then I bought a house on the southside. I wouldn't even consider buying a house on the northside unless it was in a highly desirable area and even still where I would consider highly desirable would be too far out of the city for me.

It's all well and good to make an assumption based on what you haven't done. Don't knock the southside til you've lived in a few postcodes. Likewise the northside. As it happens I moved out of the city to the countryside about 8 years ago. Love it here. Wouldn't move back to the city in a heartbeat, too many people, not enough space, parking issues etc.

ted1

I wouldn't class ballyfermont or Tallaght as being Southside.

SCD is basically any area inside the M50 excluding suburbs that have a canal. Ballyfermont, inchicore, Crumlin etc

It's more of an area than a geographic area.

Proper SoCoDu is anything between the coast and the N11 including things within a mile on the far side