Depressing Dublin House prices

MouseTail

Its not about SCD in particular, there are pockets of SCD throughout the country, areas of affluence and aspiration. What I find incredible is some posters assertion that average first time buyers should be able to buy in such areas. This was never the case. Only a small cohort of FTBs would ever have been able to purchase in such areas, those in the highest of income brackets, or those with substantial resources at their disposal. In normal mature economies it would take a few rungs on the ladder to move to such areas, and then only if the income within the unit continued to grow.

ted1

murphaph wrote: »

My contention is that parents are buying outright, possibly in their own name and then the kids are "renting" from their folks. I personally know a family in Berlin doing this and given how tight lending is in Ireland feel that this is likely happening in Ireland too.

If its good enough for Berlin, its good enough for Dublin.

Honestly I can't see this having much influence in Dublin. Maybe a few years ago when farmers etc where hiding cash and buying investment apartments for their kids in college in Dublin but not now

murphaph

ted1 wrote: »

If its good enough for Berlin, its good enough for Dublin.

Honestly I can't see this having much influence in Dublin. Maybe a few years ago when farmers etc where hiding cash and buying investment apartments for their kids in college in Dublin but not now

I don't think it's forming a large part of the market either. It seems at least 3 people seem to have ascribed that viewpoint to me but I never even hinted that I believe that to be the case.

SeanSouth

We borrowed a lot of money from European banks during the celtic tiger years.
That money didn't disappear in 2007. Some of it was squandered on Mercedes and holidays however a lot of it also ended up in the hands of some shrewd operators. My strong impression is that a lot of that cash still remains and more than a fair share of it belongs to residents of the more affluent areas of Dublin, available now for sons and daughters to purchase houses. We know that a lot of house transactions during 2013 were cash based. Where do you think this cash is coming from.

spockety

MouseTail wrote: »

Its not about SCD in particular, there are pockets of SCD throughout the country, areas of affluence and aspiration. What I find incredible is some posters assertion that average first time buyers should be able to buy in such areas. This was never the case. Only a small cohort of FTBs would ever have been able to purchase in such areas, those in the highest of income brackets, or those with substantial resources at their disposal. In normal mature economies it would take a few rungs on the ladder to move to such areas, and then only if the income within the unit continued to grow.

OK ok ok. I am sick of this argument. Please show all the examples of people who posted saying that people on average incomes should expect to live in affluent areas? Quotes and links please.

Otherwise I am calling BS BS BS.

alias no.9

SeanSouth wrote: »

We borrowed a lot of money from European banks during the celtic tiger years.
That money didn't disappear in 2007. Some of it was squandered on Mercedes and holidays however a lot of it also ended up in the hands of some shrewd operators. My strong impression is that a lot of that cash still remains and more than a fair share of it belongs to residents of the more affluent areas of Dublin, available now for sons and daughters to purchase houses. We know that a lot of house transactions during 2013 were cash based. Where do you think this cash is coming from.

To be honest, people in continuous employment through the last decade who weren't dependent on commission or overtime and don't have a variable rate mortgage are doing just fine. That's a lot of people.
There's also a cohort who did lose their jobs, got redundancy cheques and were lucky enough to get new jobs quickly.
Nobody was buying into a falling market but the first signs of stabilization has drawn them out. The numbers of transactions is still pretty low so I doubt the pent up demand from 2007 through to mid 2012 will be exhausted for another while.
There may be a dead cat bounce going on or the bottom may have passed but to be honest, for most recent purchasers, it doesn't matter a damn because they'll be in a box before a for sale sign goes up outside their house again, interest rates and their ability to meet their repayments are of far more concern to them than current prices.

ted1

spockety wrote: »

OK ok ok. I am sick of this argument. Please show all the examples of people who posted saying that people on average incomes should expect to live in affluent areas? Quotes and links please.

Otherwise I am calling BS BS BS.

Em people who grow up in the area who attended the local schools but are not as successful as their friends. I went to Terenure college and my wife went to holy child killiney. While most of our friends can afford to live local some can not.

They are from the area and should be entitled to live in the area they were raised and reared

Grandpa Hassan

ted1 wrote: »

Em people who grow up in the area who attended the local schools but are not as successful as their friends. I went to Terenure college and my wife went to holy child killiney. While most of our friends can afford to live local some can not.

They are from the area and should be entitled to live in the area they were raised and reared

Entitled to live there, for sure. But they certainly shouldn't feel entitled to buy there

ted1

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

Entitled to live there, for sure. But they certainly shouldn't feel entitled to buy there

I'd rather they could afford to than be provided with a free house like people who grew up in other parts if the county

Grandpa Hassan

ted1 wrote: »

I'd rather they could afford to than be provided with a free house like people who grew up in other parts if the county

I didn't mean they should be given a free house. I meant that they can rent there if they can't afford to buy.

I don't believe that anyone has a 'right' to live in any particular place, just because they grew up there.

Shedite27

spockety wrote: »

OK ok ok. I am sick of this argument. Please show all the examples of people who posted saying that people on average incomes should expect to live in affluent areas? Quotes and links please.

Otherwise I am calling BS BS BS.

Nobodys arguing that. The point is that realistically you need to be in top 5% of the country to buy a family home in SCD or the likes.

ted1 wrote: »

They are from the area and should be entitled to live in the area they were raised and reared

That's communism. We don't live that way, you have the right to live where you can afford

alias no.9

ted1 wrote: »

They are from the area and should be entitled to live in the area they were raised and reared

Why should they be 'entitled'? That's simply not possible in any built up areas with stable or growing populations without replacing existing housing stock with higher density units.
When someone wants a house on the street or around the corner from the street they grew up on, should all the residents be assessed on their nativeness and the least local be turfed out?

RParker123

Rush out and buy the first house you see in Dublin, regardless of prices, because this time next year they will be up 20 percent.

In 5 years the house will be worth double and people will be qeueing up to buy apartments.

Mongfinder General

RParker123 wrote: »

Rush out and buy the first house you see in Dublin, regardless of prices, because this time next year they will be up 20 percent.

In 5 years the house will be worth double and people will be qeueing up to buy apartments.

Put the above post in an envelope and mail it to 2001. Will reckless lending happen again? Surely not.

senordingdong

ted1 wrote: »

They are from the area and should be entitled to live in the area they were raised and reared

What!?

You should be entitled to live wherever you an afford.

Potatoeman

Shedite27 wrote: »

Nobodys arguing that. The point is that realistically you need to be in top 5% of the country to buy a family home in SCD or the likes.

That's communism. We don't live that way, you have the right to live where you can afford

Depending on where you consider scd but half the city only being affordable for 5% of the population seems like a problem.
During the boom many people overstreached themselves to get a better property and didnt plan for kids or joblosses.
As for communism we have NAMA keeping property prices higher than they should be, not to mention people in properties they are not paying for.

GreeBo

senordingdong wrote: »

What!?

You should be entitled to live wherever you an afford.

Which, for the vast majority of people, does not include large areas of SCD, being probably the most desirable part of the country to live in.
That's how markets work.

lima

GreeBo wrote: »

Which, for the vast majority of people, does not include large areas of SCD, being probably the most desirable part of the country to live in.
That's how markets work.

I certainly don't desire to live in boring south dublin

ezra_pound

Just an observation. Lots of discussion about affordability of scd even though scd is an undefined entity! Anyway I think its important to remember not to overplay the importance of income in determining affordability of most desirable sectors of property market because these are the very areas where capital comes in to play over income.

Theboinkmaster

ezra_pound wrote: »

Just an observation. Lots of discussion about affordability of scd even though scd is an undefined entity! Anyway I think its important to remember not to overplay the importance of income in determining affordability of most desirable sectors of property market because these are the very areas where capital comes in to play over income.

I've a (simple?) question. Couple in their early 30s on €70k each both working in good professions, 1 baby in creche. Rent in SCD and have €100k saved.

Should they be entitled to live in SCD or is it out of their reach - for example a 1,300sq ft semi D that's asking about €500k currently in say Rathfarnham D14.

Should they in theory be able to buy this property? Are they the type of earners/demographic that can live in SCD or do they earn enough/saved enough? Should they easily afford this or out of reach? If out of reach what exact type of person/couple can then afford to live in SCD...

The Spider

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

I've a (simple?) question. Couple in their early 30s on €70k each both working in good professions, 1 baby in creche. Rent in SCD and have €100k saved.

Should they be entitled to live in SCD or is it out of their reach - for example a 1,300sq ft semi D that's asking about €500k currently in say Rathfarnham D14.

Should they in theory be able to buy this property? Are they the type of earners/demographic that can live in SCD or do they earn enough/saved enough? Should they easily afford this or out of reach? If out of reach what exact type of person/couple can then afford to live in SCD...

Think you may find it hard to get 100k quickly through savings alone to be honest. You'd have to, live very frugally for a long time, people who build up that kind of deposit usually have other investments on the go, I mentioned shares in an earlier post, a lot of people I know and especially the ones buying are getting deposits this way.

To acquire a decent lump sum quickly is going to take some risk, and won't be as easy as saving especially with out goings like creche fees and rent etc, not sure, for instance you'd probably be able to save 2500 a month, that'll give you 30,000 in a year, but you're looking at over three years of consistent saving to get 100k.

You're in a better position than most, and you could look into how to get money that you've saved performing better.

jon1981

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

I've a (simple?) question. Couple in their early 30s on €70k each both working in good professions, 1 baby in creche. Rent in SCD and have €100k saved.

Should they be entitled to live in SCD or is it out of their reach - for example a 1,300sq ft semi D that's asking about €500k currently in say Rathfarnham D14.

Should they in theory be able to buy this property? Are they the type of earners/demographic that can live in SCD or do they earn enough/saved enough? Should they easily afford this or out of reach? If out of reach what exact type of person/couple can then afford to live in SCD...

I think we need to define SCD... What is SCD? Dartry, Ranelagh, Milltown, Goatstown are all the exclusive hoods, there are lots of affordable properties in SCD... but it all depends on what you parts of SCD we are referring to here.

jon1981

plenty of 3 beds in SCD under 400k

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/dublin/house-for-sale-in-dublin-south-county?maxprice=400000&minbeds=3

according to myhome this is SCD:

<option value="1254">Ballybrack</option>
<option value="1258">Blackrock</option>
<option value="1260">Booterstown</option>
<option value="1284">Dalkey</option>
<option value="1287">Deansgrange</option>
<option value="1296">Dun Laoghaire</option>
<option value="1304">Glasthule</option>
<option value="1305">Glenageary</option>
<option value="1307">Glencullen</option>
<option value="1317">Killiney</option>
<option value="1321">Kilternan</option>
<option value="1336">Monkstown</option>
<option value="1337">Mt. Merrion</option>
<option value="1384">Rathmichael</option>
<option value="1391">Sandycove</option>
<option value="1402">Shankill</option>
<option value="1405">Stepaside</option>
<option value="1407">Stillorgan</option>

SeanSouth

If you have enough money to purchase a house in that area or the capacity to borrow and repay the required amount of money then you can purchase and live in that area. Its as simple as that.All this talk about profiling and entitlement is irrelevant to the task of purchasing a house.

We live in a capitalist society. Prices are set by the interplay of supply and demand. No one has to buy, No one has to sell. If you decide to buy you must pay the market price prevailing at that time. If you decide to sell you must also accept the market price. If you dont like the price, you don't have to buy, If a seller doesn't like the prevailing price, he doesn't need to sell.

70K X 2 might seem like a lot of income to the poster above however you can take it from someone who was that soldier one time in the past that its not a lot of money when you factor in the higher rate of tax, exhorbitant creche fees and the sacrifices that dual working families need to make. Before too long you will realise that there is very little quality of life in house full of kids where both parents are working. Eventually theres a good chance that one of the parents will cease working. 70K is not enough to sustain a big mortgage in SCD and to support a growing family

minotour

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

I've a (simple?) question. Couple in their early 30s on €70k each both working in good professions, 1 baby in creche. Rent in SCD and have €100k saved.

Should they be entitled to live in SCD or is it out of their reach - for example a 1,300sq ft semi D that's asking about €500k currently in say Rathfarnham D14.

Should they in theory be able to buy this property? Are they the type of earners/demographic that can live in SCD or do they earn enough/saved enough? Should they easily afford this or out of reach? If out of reach what exact type of person/couple can then afford to live in SCD...

In my humble opinion absolutely you/they are entitled to live wherever the fook you/they like.........hypothetically anyway. I read that as you have the 100K saved couple that with good earning potential over the next 40 years, yiz are in a grand position. Do it before the next baby though but plan accordingly.

minotour

SeanSouth wrote: »

If you have enough money to purchase a house in that area or the capacity to borrow and repay the required amount of money then you can purchase and live in that area. Its as simple as that.All this talk about profiling and entitlement is irrelevant to the task of purchasing a house.

We live in a capitalist society. Prices are set by the interplay of supply and demand. No one has to buy, No one has to sell. If you decide to buy you must pay the market price prevailing at that time. If you decide to sell you must also accept the market price. If you dont like the price, you don't have to buy, If a seller doesn't like the prevailing price, he doesn't need to sell.

70K X 2 might seem like a lot of income to the poster above however you can take it from someone who was that soldier one time in the past that its not a lot of money when you factor in the higher rate of tax, exhorbitant creche fees and the sacrifices that dual working families need to make. Before too long you will realise that there is very little quality of life in house full of kids where both parents are working. Eventually theres a good chance that one of the parents will cease working. 70K is not enough to sustain a big mortgage in SCD and to support a growing family

Why assume its a static figure? That salary in their 30's implies to me at least that there is potential for growth.

The Spider

minotour wrote: »

In my humble opinion absolutely you/they are entitled to live wherever the fook you/they like.........hypothetically anyway. I read that as you have the 100K saved couple that with good earning potential over the next 40 years, yiz are in a grand position. Do it before the next baby though but plan accordingly.

Just read again 100k already saved, you should be grand, that's around 7,300 a month? Usual stuff though no more than a third of income on a mortgage, that's what the banks will test against.

Although if one of you plan to stop working you'd be in trouble as mentioned above, so if you think that'd be on the cards I'd think carefully about it, and from experience when there's kids involved sooner or later it's on the cards.

Theboinkmaster

The Spider wrote: »

Just read again 100k already saved, you should be grand, that's around 7,300 a month? Usual stuff though no more than a third of income on a mortgage, that's what the banks will test against.

Although if one of you plan to stop working you'd be in trouble as mentioned above, so if you think that'd be on the cards I'd think carefully about it, and from experience when there's kids involved sooner or later it's on the cards.

Assume in my example the €100k is already saved therefore the €500k house is mortgaged at €400k.

So over 30 days that's about €2k per month. That couple on 2 x €70k is pulling in about €7,500 net per month.

So I'm asking how affordable is that? yes it's less than 1 third of the household income so may seem prudent but are you now meant to get a mortgage on main income not two?

Therefore that suddenly becomes €2k out of say €3,700 per month which to me may not seem prudent?

Therefore in this case I'd say this couple cannot afford that house? Then if so who can afford such houses? I would have thought in theory a couple on €140k should be able to afford a 4bed semi D in Rathfarnham but going on these numbers it's a stretch perhaps?

Therefore the €500k house in D14 is still overvalued?

jon1981

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Therefore the €500k house in D14 is still overvalued?

again where are you getting this 500k figure from?

there are plenty of houses in that area under 500k ...

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/dublin-14/house-for-sale-in-rathfarnham?maxprice=400000&minbeds=4

and look how many actually sold over 500k...

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date?SearchView&Start=1&SearchMax=0&SearchOrder=4&Query=[dt_execution_date]%3E=01/01/2013%20AND%20[dt_execution_date]%3C01/01/2014%20AND%20[address]=*rathfarnham*%20AND%20[dc_county]=%22Dublin%22&County=Dublin&Year=2013&StartMonth=01&EndMonth=12&Address=rathfarnham

SFA.

The Spider

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Therefore the €500k house in D14 is still overvalued?

Like everything that's for sale if there's a demand and the houses are selling at that price then they're not overvalued, they're only overvalued if they don't achieve the sale and drop.

That's the market at work, if there's 10 houses for sale and 50 potential buyers then the price will be high.

If there's 50 houses for sale and 10 potential buyers then the price will be low.