Depressing Dublin House prices

lima

borderlinemeath wrote: »

Maybe if you broadened your horizons with meeting people it might help with the secular image you have of an entire area.



Given time, your needs will probably change. There's fantastic areas in the southside that you dismiss now that you may well live in later in life. Although the way prices are going they may be out of reach by then.

Actually they are far past what I am willing to pay in this city.

murphaph

lima wrote: »

Actually they are far past what I am willing to pay in this city.

Then failing another even bigger crash in Ireland you will have to remain renting or emigrate. I don't see prices falling again in and around Dublin. A few repossessions won't have any noticeable affect and I believe many of those who aren't paying can afford to and will pay when push comes to shove. It isn't really fair but that's the reality.

borderlinemeath

lima wrote: »

Actually they are far past what I am willing to pay in this city.

But....But...haven't you been waiting for months and months for a cheap repossession???:p

lima

borderlinemeath wrote: »

But....But...haven't you been waiting for months and months for a cheap repossession???:p

Property prices in the southside are more than I am willing to pay.

There are plenty of cheap houses (including repossessions) elsewhere but the majority are in suburbia which is not where I want to live.

Again I can probably buy up to 340k by myself but Ireland, and Dublin is just not worth that money. I am not planning on brining up kids in this place so I'll probably end up getting a reasonably cheap house (far, far cheaper than what it was worth during the 'boom' lol) to live in for a few years and then rent it out. Where I will be living in the future affords huge floorspace for a much lower price so I'm lucky to have this option. Unfortunately for some they will have to commit a significant amount of their income just to live in an overprice, undersized home somewhere in Dublin.

lima

murphaph wrote: »

Then failing another even bigger crash in Ireland you will have to remain renting or emigrate. I don't see prices falling again in and around Dublin. A few repossessions won't have any noticeable affect and I believe many of those who aren't paying can afford to and will pay when push comes to shove. It isn't really fair but that's the reality.

Yeah being aware that that might happen I do not see myself living in Ireland long term. I have perspective to know that Dublin is not a good place to live if you have other options. However if you are stuck here then of course you will rave about it.

GreeBo

If you base value on floor area you will always be disappointed.
Compare the insurance rebuild costs of any house to its price...it's very rarely even close, in a desirable Dublin area?
Forget it.

lima

borderlinemeath wrote: »

Maybe if you broadened your horizons with meeting people it might help with the secular image you have of an entire area.

Also, mate, I have lived and traveling in a variety of places around the world to have a large perspective to know that south dublin is not the utopian wonderland some people think it is in their own narrow perspective.

I can understand you speculating that I do not have the perspective to judge a particular place. Unfortunately you do not know me and my experiences and I don't wish to have to prove that my point is valid to an internet stranger.

borderlinemeath

lima wrote: »

borderlinemeath wrote: »

Maybe if you broadened your horizons with meeting people it might help with the secular image you have of an entire area.

Also, mate, I have lived and traveling in a variety of places around the world to have a large perspective to know that south dublin is not the utopian wonderland some people think it is in their own narrow perspective.

I can understand you speculating that I do not have the perspective to judge a particular place. Unfortunately you do not know me and my experiences and I don't wish to have to prove that my point is valid to an internet stranger.

Absolutely. I'm an internet stranger. So don't refer to me as 'mate'. I'm not your mate, and never will be.

You are right though, I don't know you. But reading through your posts on this forum gives a good idea of the type of person you are.

lima

borderlinemeath wrote: »

Absolutely. I'm an internet stranger. So don't refer to me as 'mate'. I'm not your mate, and never will be.

You are right though, I don't know you. But reading through your posts on this forum gives a good idea of the type of person you are.

Don't worry, you don't get sarcasm, I couldn't give a toss about you.

You have no idea who I am and never will, don't hung up on it.

The_Conductor

borderlinemeath wrote: »

Absolutely. I'm an internet stranger. So don't refer to me as 'mate'. I'm not your mate, and never will be.

You are right though, I don't know you. But reading through your posts on this forum gives a good idea of the type of person you are.

Infracted.
If you want to continue posting here- please read the forum charter.

Regards,

The_Conductor

barks1990

Some of these replies are great thanks lads, in my current situation i am staying in a place rent free for the next 18 months and have 25% saved up for an area im looking at (3 bed semi) do you think i should go for it and rent it out for a year or two??

John_Rambo

lima wrote: »

Yeah being aware that that might happen I do not see myself living in Ireland long term. I have perspective to know that Dublin is not a good place to live if you have other options. However if you are stuck here then of course you will rave about it.

That's unfair. Everyones needs are different. Thousands of people including myself could easily afford to go gown a number of routes but chose Dublin for their own valid reasons. Just because it doesn't suit your lifestyle and pay packet doesn't mean it's not a good place to live in.

ted1

John_Rambo wrote: »

That's unfair. Everyones needs are different. Thousands of people including myself could easily afford to go gown a number of routes but chose Dublin for their own valid reasons. Just because it doesn't suit your lifestyle and pay packet doesn't mean it's not a good place to live in.

I've him blocked due to his constant rants about how he prefers the Northside and general bitterness towards the Southside
So only see quotes, believe me the block user is a great feature.

lima

Heh heh, There is a person here who lost an argument and blocked me but I won't go on about it, but he needs to know that 'scd' includes the bad areas as well as the good areas!

Anyway, OP, keep in the loop on houses and if one that you like appears then go for it, but don't buy just for the sake of it. Prices in Dublin are still 47.5% down from peak so there's loads of space to wait for the property that you like.

Prices should go down a bit over the next few months but it depends on how many buyers there are out there. Mortgage lending is low and the people not paying their mortgages have started to realize that they will not get a free lunch so they will have to sell up so may be a few more bits of stock being released to the market. Good luck!

John_Rambo

lima wrote: »

Heh heh, There is a person here who lost an argument and blocked me but I won't go on about it, but...

Dude?

johnnyskeleton

gaius c wrote: »

A bottle of whiskey priced at €1000 is not cheap. When it drops to €300, it's still not cheap.

Depends on the whiskey though.

desertcircus

GreeBo wrote: »

But why *should* they?! Are you a socialist?
You can should your way through life, but meanwhile life will continue ignoring you.

Reflexive use of "socialist" as a pejorative; not a good sign.

There's a fairly simple argument that if people in the top 10% income bracket can't get a mortgage for a top 20% house, then things are pretty badly skewed and ultimately unsustainable. Middling areas of South Dublin are not so spectacularly located or built that they should be unaffordable for people on good wages in safe jobs; if they are, that's a worrying sign that the property market is unsustainable and liable to crash again.

The_Conductor

desertcircus wrote: »

Reflexive use of "socialist" as a pejorative; not a good sign.

There's a fairly simple argument that if people in the top 10% income bracket can't get a mortgage for a top 20% house, then things are pretty badly skewed and ultimately unsustainable. Middling areas of South Dublin are not so spectacularly located or built that they should be unaffordable for people on good wages in safe jobs; if they are, that's a worrying sign that the property market is unsustainable and liable to crash again.

We've already discussed the SDCC price rises in another thread- looking at the slowing in the price rises and if current trends continue how these would be arrested fully, and possibly start to slip again (on current trends within 3-4 months).

All we can really look at are trends- and the trends are showing a remarkable and rapid slowdown in price increases, so its very possible it may well have been a 'dead cat bounce'.......

No matter how we try to parcel things- our economy is in terrible form- and people who should be earning reasonable wages are paying almost 55% tax from only 33k income levels. The system is setup to milk taxpayers- not to grow the economy- and it suits the government to get a few higher spenders spending- or to flush those with cash into the wider economy- which is what they have successfully done- from an economics perspective, it was a short term goal- but its mission accomplished.

The_Conductor

lima wrote: »

Heh heh, There is a person here who lost an argument and blocked me but I won't go on about it

You do know you're coming across as gloating?
Its hardly a reasonable way to debate with a wide and varied group on the internet. Irrespective of how you feel justified- please quit this attitude- its seriously rubbing people up the wrong way.

The_Conductor

John_Rambo wrote: »

Dude?

While I get what you're saying- the 'Report Post' function is there for a reason. Please use it.

The_Conductor

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Depends on the whiskey though.

Have to agree- I've been sipping a bottle of single malt I was given as a present- for almost 15 years. It only comes out for special occasions. That bottle, unopened, is worth over a grand.

Evreything is worth what its purchaser is willing to pay for it. We have to Romans to thank for recognising this philosophy- specifically Publilius Syrus.

Even if we cannot afford to pay a particular price for something- or had we the money- perhaps we'd be unwilling to pay it for that asset- does not mean we can't aspire to that asset, albeit not on the terms it is currently available on.

This is why we have all those people who sat out the carnage and minded their cash- willing to pile it at particular price points- and indeed why they set up their own micro property market- though the signs are that the writing is on the wall for this too.........

I only hope that a vast number of ordinary people who viewed property ownership as some sort of a one-way gamble that couldn't loose- and indeed who viewed their PPRs as a cashcow to pay for foreign holidays and new cars- have learnt something from the past few years. Most intelligent people have decided the lesson to learn is to get the hell out of here. Perhaps given the track record of our elected representatives, our institutions of state and our financial sector- they have learnt the right lesson- time will tell. There is a ridiculous amount of Schadenfreude in Europe towards Ireland at the moment- you know something strange is happening when the head of the IMF is openly and defiantly fighting the corner of the Irish against the Commission and the ECB, thankyou Christine.

I need to visit the coffee machine again, I have real work to do this morning.

air

The_Conductor wrote: »

paying almost 55% tax from only 33k income levels.

OT but it's really 65.75% when you include employers PRSI.

The whole concept of employers PRSI is a stunning piece of subterfuge by our government, workers seemingly dismiss it as irrelevant to them when nothing could be further from the truth.

Back on topic I can't foersee any large falls in house prices in these areas.
As has been mentioned already there is no land available for new development. The majority of people living there are happy to stay, so the only source of supply is where an owner dies without any relatives which would wish to live in the area.

In my anecdotal experience I would say that the majority of those living in these areas actually couldn't afford to buy there themselves now either, however they can afford to stay and will typically pass the house on to one of their children.

This leaves a tiny supply of new houses which will be competed for strongly by the cream of the top income earners.

The_Conductor

Punitive reform of inheritance tax? Nothing else has worked...... Its also how we got most of our lovely OPW property into State hands- they weren't willingly handed over. One estate changed hands 3 times in a 14 month period during the war- abondoning it to the state was the only option.

In this case- we need to actively incentivise the older generations to trade down to accommodation more suitable to their needs- which is what happens in every other country in the world. Leaving the home in Dunlaoghaire to one of the children- is almost uniquely Irish (the French aren't dissimilar- but they have actually copperfastened the role of children to provide for their parents, through maintenance mechanisms, in law- different approach, same net effect).

If incentivising people to trade down doesn't work- aka if the carrot doesn't work- unfortunately then we need to apply the stick. Remodelling the property tax- so the higher the market value a property is- the higher percentage tax is due (not absolute amounts- lets raise the percentages too) might be a sufficient stick- but then we need to be cognisant of the fact that potential purchasers need to be able to pay the property tax in future too- and we might end up with elite communities- something we also don't want.

At the moment- two civil servants or two teachers- on what are being held up as some of the highest salaries in the OECD, cannot afford to live anywhere near where they work. This is a dual income household on far more than the average industrial wage. Its just an example. What are fair prices for property- and how do we structure our tax system to try and make people actually believe it is fair- which should be a fundamental construct of how the system works. It sure as hell isn't fair as is.

air

I think it depends on what you're trying to achieve with the introduction of such taxes. I don't think it makes sense to set taxation policy for the entire country in order to facilitate a tiny portion of the population that wish to live in a small area.

The "problem" as such in this instance appears to be that people with upper middle class incomes cannot afford to buy in these areas for the aforementioned reasons.
The way I see it they can either live frugally and highly leverage themselves over the long term and achieve their goal or they can live somewhere else.
If they choose en masse to live elsewhere then presumably these areas will be improved by their superior worth and become more desirable in the long term.

People might be happier in our cities if we could evolve our residential areas to more closely mimic those of more socially advanced societies. The idea of having a mix of house types in each area to suit people of different income levels makes sense to me personally.
Those that grow up in a smaller house might be inspired to be financially successful in order to buy a bigger house like the one their next door neighbour has etc.

The_Conductor

I agree with you- unfortunately this is Ireland- and we have 200 years of mindset to overcome. What was the first thing we did when we gained independence? Any tree left in the country that the British hadn't cut down- we went and did it ourselves. We are bloody minded in the extreme.

We've been through several bubbles since the 60s- few posting on here are old enough to remember them- some were in housing, others were in farm prices etc.

We are terminally incapable of getting over the mindset of the population at large. You could substitute 'Lemmings' for 'Irish'- and you'd not be far off the mark.......


I despair.

johnnyskeleton

desertcircus wrote: »

Reflexive use of "socialist" as a pejorative; not a good sign.

There's a fairly simple argument that if people in the top 10% income bracket can't get a mortgage for a top 20% house, then things are pretty badly skewed and ultimately unsustainable. Middling areas of South Dublin are not so spectacularly located or built that they should be unaffordable for people on good wages in safe jobs; if they are, that's a worrying sign that the property market is unsustainable and liable to crash again.

I suppose it can be explained by the increased population in Dublin and the fact that Ireland has very little by way of incentives not to hold property.

In fact, from my own personal situation, I'm finding that overpriced property appears to be a more attractive proposition where yields are 4-8% than holding the money in cash that pays about 1-2% and is taxed at the higher rate. The government is effectively pushing people out of bank deposits and into buying property.

johnnyskeleton

The_Conductor wrote: »

This is why we have all those people who sat out the carnage and minded their cash- willing to pile it at particular price points- and indeed why they set up their own micro property market- though the signs are that the writing is on the wall for this too.........

I agree with you, but as Keynes said (paraphrased), the market can stay irrational longer than I can remain solvent. Especially when we have a government determined to prop up the property market at all costs.

GreeBo

desertcircus wrote: »

Reflexive use of "socialist" as a pejorative; not a good sign.

There's a fairly simple argument that if people in the top 10% income bracket can't get a mortgage for a top 20% house, then things are pretty badly skewed and ultimately unsustainable. Middling areas of South Dublin are not so spectacularly located or built that they should be unaffordable for people on good wages in safe jobs; if they are, that's a worrying sign that the property market is unsustainable and liable to crash again.

No, not pejorative at all, a simple question actually. The poster send to think that normal people are entitled to normal houses, irrespective of normal market forces.

As for it not being a " good sign"? Sign of what may I ask? A capitalist can't have a valid opinion here?

What becomes unsustainable? Ever increasing house prices? well off course. Likewise ever decreasing prices. Again, market forces. You run out of people able to purchase the houses on the market, then the prices fall a bit until the house sells. Houses are no different than any other commodity, the market decides the price.
I don't see what's skewed about that. Buyers want low prices, sellers want high. That's not skewed.
There are lots of spectacular houses in scd, there are also lots of normal houses. There are amazing houses in Spain for half the price...I don't see your point. If more people want to live in an area then there are houses available, prices go up. Otherwise they go down, it doesn't have to be spectacular in either direction. Cheap credit swayed the market in the past, hopefully that doesn't happen again.

ezra_pound

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I suppose it can be explained by the increased population in Dublin and the fact that Ireland has very little by way of incentives not to hold property.

In fact, from my own personal situation, I'm finding that overpriced property appears to be a more attractive proposition where yields are 4-8% than holding the money in cash that pays about 1-2% and is taxed at the higher rate. The government is effectively pushing people out of bank deposits and into buying property.

Overpriced property where yields are 4-8%???

Hmmm...

desertcircus

GreeBo wrote: »

No, not pejorative at all, a simple question actually. The poster send to think that normal people are entitled to normal houses, irrespective of normal market forces.

As for it not being a " good sign"? Sign of what may I ask? A capitalist can't have a valid opinion here?

What becomes unsustainable? Ever increasing house prices? well off course. Likewise ever decreasing prices. Again, market forces. You run out of people able to purchase the houses on the market, then the prices fall a bit until the house sells. Houses are no different than any other commodity, the market decides the price.
I don't see what's skewed about that. Buyers want low prices, sellers want high. That's not skewed.
There are lots of spectacular houses in scd, there are also lots of normal houses. There are amazing houses in Spain for half the price...I don't see your point. If more people want to live in an area then there are houses available, prices go up. Otherwise they go down, it doesn't have to be spectacular in either direction. Cheap credit swayed the market in the past, hopefully that doesn't happen again.

The whole point is that if normal people can't afford normal houses, then market conditions aren't normal. Anything that's priced much over a quarter of a million is out of the reach of all but the top 10% of households, so in a properly functioning market, there really shouldn't be much more than 10% of the market priced at that level.