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Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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  • #752
    delaval
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭delaval


    jersey101 wrote: »
    sure did, some serioys growth out there, 24t of DM/ha

    Waikato, grows 20/day for the winter and up to 150 in summer, has to be the most perfect dairy grows in the world


  • #753
    jersey101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,190 ✭✭✭jersey101


    delaval wrote: »
    Waikato, grows 20/day for the winter and up to 150 in summer, has to be the most perfect dairy grows in the world

    how much is land an acre out there now?? :D:D


  • #754
    freedominacup
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,920 ✭✭✭freedominacup


    jersey101 wrote: »
    how much is land an acre out there now?? :D:D

    So much cynicism from someone so young:D


  • #755
    C4d78
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 334 ✭✭C4d78


    stanflt wrote: »
    Everyone knows that Ebi fertile cows and good grass don't work



    8800 litres per cow delivered as of this morning

    3.49 prot not going to make the 3.50

    How'd you figure High Ebi fertile cows and good grass don't work. That makes no sense.
    Any system will work if done well.


  • #756
    jersey101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,190 ✭✭✭jersey101


    freedominacup wrote: »
    So much cynicism from someone so young:D

    i here land is getting expensive out there now and it used to be cheap


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  • #757
    Timmaay
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    C4d78 wrote: »
    How'd you figure High Ebi fertile cows and good grass don't work. That makes no sense.
    Any system will work if done well.

    Sarcasm :P, Stan is rightly sick of people bashing his system, people say you can't have a high production and good fertility, Stans herd is most certainly an example of one with both!


  • #758
    Timmaay
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    jersey101 wrote: »
    how much is land an acre out there now?? :D:D

    http://www.dairynz.co.nz/file/fileid/45159 page 40 shows farms sold in 2012.

    32000 NZ $/HA. Rough conversion to yoyos and acres is 7700, so not much cheaper than here. Average area of the 160 farms sold is 171 HA however, you probably get a farm that size for sale here once a year!


  • #759
    jersey101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,190 ✭✭✭jersey101


    Timmaay wrote: »
    http://www.dairynz.co.nz/file/fileid/45159 page 40 shows farms sold in 2012.

    32000 NZ $/HA. Rough conversion to yoyos and acres is 7700, so not much cheaper than here. Average area of the 160 farms sold is 171 HA however, you probably get a farm that size for sale here once a year!

    one in ten years i would say, very little farms that size left in ireland now?

    Where would you make more monry though? Ireland or NZ on the same scale in each country?


  • #760
    Timmaay
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    jersey101 wrote: »
    one in ten years i would say, very little farms that size left in ireland now?

    Where would you make more monry though? Ireland or NZ on the same scale in each country?

    For years the price nz got for milk on the world market was shocking low, 16c/l I vaguely remember, but the cost of production was low with pure grass based systems, no nitrates limits, outwinter everything etc. Now the world price is considerably higher, but from reading the peter young article, NZ have the blinkers on, and are chasing yeilds, using concentrates. For a country so dependent on the export price, all this could could backfire if we get another 09. Is that any different to here now however ha? Probably not, other than we have two limits, one being the landbase, and the 2nd being the banks.

    But not really answering your question, probably not a huge difference other than the setup costs in NZ are probably lower with no nitrates, that definitely won't last however.


  • #761
    jersey101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,190 ✭✭✭jersey101


    Timmaay wrote: »
    For years the price nz got for milk on the world market was shocking low, 16c/l I vaguely remember, but the cost of production was low with pure grass based systems, no nitrates limits, outwinter everything etc. Now the world price is considerably higher, but from reading the peter young article, NZ have the blinkers on, and are chasing yeilds, using concentrates. For a country so dependent on the export price, all this could could backfire if we get another 09. Is that any different to here now however ha? Probably not, other than we have two limits, one being the landbase, and the 2nd being the banks.

    But not really answering your question, probably not a huge difference other than the setup costs in NZ are probably lower with no nitrates, that definitely won't last however.

    getting money is the biggest factor alright. And tge age profile of irish farms and still no young ppl interested in starting. Sure around me three is 3 farmers with sons and none interested in farmes, nearly 600ac between them all. And land not being used to its full potential either


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  • #762
    stanflt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,803 ✭✭✭stanflt


    jersey101 wrote: »
    getting money is the biggest factor alright. And tge age profile of irish farms and still no young ppl interested in starting. Sure around me three is 3 farmers with sons and none interested in farmes, nearly 600ac between them all. And land not being used to its full potential either

    To your question on another tread- I would be your neighbour in the morning if land like that wAs available


  • #763
    Timmaay
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    And I got 90acres for sale boarding my milking block for the last year! Looks like it will be finally be sold very soon! I'd be interested other than I don't have a penny to my name ha, even if the banks would give me the money, borrowing for likes of that would leave some interest bill every year!


  • #764
    delaval
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭delaval


    Timmaay wrote: »
    And I got 90acres for sale boarding my milking block for the last year! Looks like it will be finally be sold very soon! I'd be interested other than I don't have a penny to my name ha, even if the banks would give me the money, borrowing for likes of that would leave some interest bill every year!

    €1m 230 cows grass based, go on Tim you've 20 yrs to pay it


  • #765
    jersey101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,190 ✭✭✭jersey101


    stanflt wrote: »
    To your question on another tread- I would be your neighbour in the morning if land like that wAs available

    i think everyone would :D


  • #766
    biddy2013
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,643 ✭✭✭biddy2013


    i walk a block about once a week, its about 5 miles, 40% of the land on this block is totally under utilised, rushes growing through it and not looked after at all... i did try and buy 30 acres adjoining me on this block a few years ago but the executors fell out with each other and the land is idle now


  • #767
    Farmer Pudsey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,326 ✭✭✭Farmer Pudsey


    Buying land is a habit when you do it twice or three times I hear it becomes easier. It is all about getting to the scale where it is relatively painless.

    Not there yet.


  • #768
    jersey101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,190 ✭✭✭jersey101


    Farmer Pudsey wrote: »
    Buying land is a habit when you do it twice or three times I hear it becomes easier. It is all about getting to the scale where it is relatively painless.

    Not there yet.

    Was on a farm in cork in thevspring, lad milking 400 cows and he would buy land rather than lease


  • #769
    Bactidiaryl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 360 ✭✭Bactidiaryl


    Timmaay wrote: »
    For years the price nz got for milk on the world market was shocking low, 16c/l I vaguely remember, but the cost of production was low with pure grass based systems, no nitrates limits, outwinter everything etc. Now the world price is considerably higher, but from reading the peter young article, NZ have the blinkers on, and are chasing yeilds, using concentrates. For a country so dependent on the export price, all this could could backfire if we get another 09. Is that any different to here now however ha? Probably not, other than we have two limits, one being the landbase, and the 2nd being the banks.

    But not really answering your question, probably not a huge difference other than the setup costs in NZ are probably lower with no nitrates, that definitely won't last however.

    A positive I see in this fir us is that the kiwis were always the lowest cost and still are and as such with their higher costs have set the floor higher.


  • #770
    Milked out
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,433 ✭✭✭Milked out


    delaval wrote: »
    €1m 230 cows grass based, go on Tim you've 20 yrs to pay it

    That's grand till you go to the bank looking for money these days, painfull enough to deal with esp now there's no competition between em really


  • #771
    jaymla627
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,128 ✭✭✭jaymla627


    Farmer Pudsey wrote: »
    Buying land is a habit when you do it twice or three times I hear it becomes easier. It is all about getting to the scale where it is relatively painless.

    Not there yet.

    It will be a whole lot cheaper to throw up a proper big f""k of shed and truck the feed into your cows then going dropping money on land adjoining your milking block, the thing lads don't realise if things do go tits up its an awful easier to pull the plug once you haven't got half a million plus of a loan on your hands for land.


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  • #772
    Timmaay
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    delaval wrote: »
    €1m 230 cows grass based, go on Tim you've 20 yrs to pay it

    Hmmm almost zero chance of the banks giving me that sorta money with no investment of myown, 2bh when I do out a cashflow/5yr planner on ICBF, I found it hard to ever make the figures balance, huge cashflow hole for the 1st 3yrs when I put in a mileprice of 30c/l. That was all without the 2c/l levy, and what happens if milk hits 26/28 in say 2016?

    Anyways at the minute, if I stocked my current 44Ha to the same as your farm (3.4cows/Ha), I'd have 150cows, not bad at all. (interesting to here any opinion you'd have on this idea against going and buying the 90acres!). Further to this, few other small grass blocks do boarder my land also which are rented to local farmers, and then a 100acre tillage block, so further expansion opportunities could exist there. The final option I'd have is to sit quite still, stock myown 44Ha to about 100 cows, run the replacements on it also and if needs, import wholecrop/maize etc, of which I'd have zero problems sourcing locally!


  • #773
    delaval
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭delaval


    Timmaay wrote: »
    Hmmm almost zero chance of the banks giving me that sorta money with no investment of myown, 2bh when I do out a cashflow/5yr planner on ICBF, I found it hard to ever make the figures balance, huge cashflow hole for the 1st 3yrs when I put in a mileprice of 30c/l. That was all without the 2c/l levy, and what happens if milk hits 26/28 in say 2016?

    Anyways at the minute, if I stocked my current 44Ha to the same as your farm (3.4cows/Ha), I'd have 150cows, not bad at all. (interesting to here any opinion you'd have on this idea against going and buying the 90acres!). Further to this, few other small grass blocks do boarder my land also which are rented to local farmers, and then a 100acre tillage block, so further expansion opportunities could exist there. The final option I'd have is to sit quite still, stock myown 44Ha to about 100 cows, run the replacements on it also and if needs, import wholecrop/maize etc, of which I'd have zero problems sourcing locally!

    I find the ICBF planner to be totally unusable and wholly inaccurate

    I'd agree that you'd be better stocking and managing your farm and challenging yourself before saddeling yourself. Nothing surer than price will drop so rying in bought in forage is something I'd be very careful of. Output is one thing but costs must be in control, aswell as being able to batten down the hatches in a low price period


  • #774
    John_F
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 663 ✭✭✭John_F


    came across this. am i right in saying that the usa are getting a lower price for milk compared to last year?

    http://www.milkprices.nl/reviews/images/201310/Graphi1.jpg

    http://www.milkprices.nl/reviews/eng201310.pdf


  • #775
    mahoney_j
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,719 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    Tim think I'd be in simillar boat to you,caught for land around parlour.my plan for the moment once quots go is to bump up sr to 3.6 once cows go.ill have the cows and a farm that could grow 15 tonnes plus on a good year.it will require me to bring in about 60% of my winter forage and feeding up to 1.5 tonnes of meal to milkers and aiming for over 600 kg solids.i can source maize and whole crop wheat easily enough as well as bringing early high dmd silage from inlaws farm.im budgeting on an average milk price of 30 cent for next 5 years on average.i know a lot of ye kiwi farmers will think I'm mad but I've limited land and the high input high output system works for me and critically is profitable.there is one block of land next to me80 acres that may come up some day ,was once top class land once but now totally run down and would set me back 10 k an acre to buy and proably another 3 k an acre to spray,reseed .fertlise,clear ditches and bring farm yard to a level where a dept inspector wouldn't shut it down.it would be a hell of a lot of money to shed out for what is currently shire land but could be top class after 5 years of tlc.i have 70 acres in 2 outside blocks I could sell but this was cared for like home block as regards soil fertility etc.would I be mad to sell that to consolidate my home block????


  • #776
    mahoney_j
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,719 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    Tim think I'd be in simillar boat to you,caught for land around parlour.my plan for the moment once quots go is to bump up sr to 3.6 once cows go.ill have the cows and a farm that could grow 15 tonnes plus on a good year.it will require me to bring in about 60% of my winter forage and feeding up to 1.5 tonnes of meal to milkers and aiming for over 600 kg solids.i can source maize and whole crop wheat easily enough as well as bringing early high dmd silage from inlaws farm.im budgeting on an average milk price of 30 cent for next 5 years on average.i know a lot of ye kiwi farmers will think I'm mad but I've limited land and the high input high output system works for me and critically is profitable.there is one block of land next to me80 acres that may come up some day ,was once top class land once but now totally run down and would set me back 10 k an acre to buy and proably another 3 k an acre to spray,reseed .fertlise,clear ditches and bring farm yard to a level where a dept inspector wouldn't shut it down.it would be a hell of a lot of money to shed out for what is currently shire land but could be top class after 5 years of tlc.i have 70 acres in 2 outside blocks I could sell but this was cared for like home block as regards soil fertility etc.would I be mad to sell that to consolidate my home block????


  • #777
    jersey101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,190 ✭✭✭jersey101


    mahoney_j wrote: »
    Tim think I'd be in simillar boat to you,caught for land around parlour.my plan for the moment once quots go is to bump up sr to 3.6 once cows go.ill have the cows and a farm that could grow 15 tonnes plus on a good year.it will require me to bring in about 60% of my winter forage and feeding up to 1.5 tonnes of meal to milkers and aiming for over 600 kg solids.i can source maize and whole crop wheat easily enough as well as bringing early high dmd silage from inlaws farm.im budgeting on an average milk price of 30 cent for next 5 years on average.i know a lot of ye kiwi farmers will think I'm mad but I've limited land and the high input high output system works for me and critically is profitable.there is one block of land next to me80 acres that may come up some day ,was once top class land once but now totally run down and would set me back 10 k an acre to buy and proably another 3 k an acre to spray,reseed .fertlise,clear ditches and bring farm yard to a level where a dept inspector wouldn't shut it down.it would be a hell of a lot of money to shed out for what is currently shire land but could be top class after 5 years of tlc.i have 70 acres in 2 outside blocks I could sell but this was cared for like home block as regards soil fertility etc.would I be mad to sell that to consolidate my home block????

    whats the story with lease land around you? Is it in high demand? That would determine weather you sell out blocks or not


  • #778
    mahoney_j
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,719 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    jersey101 wrote: »
    whats the story with lease land around you? Is it in high demand? That would determine weather you sell out blocks or not

    Approached guy a few times re lease and no hope,guy is stubborn as ****e and wouldn't lease to me or anyone else around.there may be a small chance down road though but tiny .i will be ready to react though.terms would have to be pretty good though due to state of it.there is no other chances as I'm surrounded by other dairy men and one large suckler farmer


  • #779
    Brown Podzol
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,847 ✭✭✭Brown Podzol


    John_F wrote: »
    came across this. am i right in saying that the usa are getting a lower price for milk compared to last year?

    http://www.milkprices.nl/reviews/images/201310/Graphi1.jpg

    http://www.milkprices.nl/reviews/eng201310.pdf


    There is a very complicated way of working out milk price in the US. The price that matters is the price actually received by the farmer as reported here in Howard's Dairyman.

    http://www.hoards.com/mailbox


  • #780
    bob charles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,343 ✭✭✭bob charles


    mahoney_j wrote: »
    Turnover is vanity,profit is sanity and cash is reality.geard that at a walk a few years back ,stuck with me since and pretty apt!

    what a bullish*te term


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  • #781
    Farmer Pudsey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,326 ✭✭✭Farmer Pudsey


    mahoney_j wrote: »
    Tim think I'd be in simillar boat to you,caught for land around parlour.my plan for the moment once quots go is to bump up sr to 3.6 once cows go.ill have the cows and a farm that could grow 15 tonnes plus on a good year.it will require me to bring in about 60% of my winter forage and feeding up to 1.5 tonnes of meal to milkers and aiming for over 600 kg solids.i can source maize and whole crop wheat easily enough as well as bringing early high dmd silage from inlaws farm.im budgeting on an average milk price of 30 cent for next 5 years on average.i know a lot of ye kiwi farmers will think I'm mad but I've limited land and the high input high output system works for me and critically is profitable.there is one block of land next to me80 acres that may come up some day ,was once top class land once but now totally run down and would set me back 10 k an acre to buy and proably another 3 k an acre to spray,reseed .fertlise,clear ditches and bring farm yard to a level where a dept inspector wouldn't shut it down.it would be a hell of a lot of money to shed out for what is currently shire land but could be top class after 5 years of tlc.i have 70 acres in 2 outside blocks I could sell but this was cared for like home block as regards soil fertility etc.would I be mad to sell that to consolidate my home block????


    A lot depends on how far away the outside block is. If leasing is not an option the to expand locally purchasse is the only option. Denis Brosnan made the point after buying Golden Vale and all anaylist were of the opinion he overpayed that '' you often have to pay over the top for the farm next to you''.

    You have to remember it is lifestyle as well and while on a acre for acre basis it might not make sence it may well allow you to expand and lease elsewhere for forage. I live away from the farm and while it is not drugery it certainly has lifestyle issues.

    The other thing to remember is that unless the other two or three locals are really interested then it may go for less than you expect. Also you may not need to sell both outside blocks in reality it is a decision you have to make yourself but if adjacent to you and you in dairying this sort of option may only come up once in your lifetime.

    On the onther hand no point in buying at any cost but in reality at present 10k/acre sems to be the base for good quality agriculture land


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