Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

mf240

I feel a bit like the orphan in Oliver twist saying "please sir can I have some more"

But is there any chance of a 13th payment to top up suppliers seen as the market remained so strong and this wasn't matched by milk price all year.

TEAT SQUEEZER

biddy2013 wrote: »

a nice birthday present:D

that wouldnt be the 40th by any chance:D

TEAT SQUEEZER

mf240 wrote: »

I feel a bit like the orphan in Oliver twist saying "please sir can I have some more"

But is there any chance of a 13th payment to top up suppliers seen as the market remained so strong and this wasn't matched by milk price all year.

alas no .. they couldnt even be the ones to break the 40c/l for the small december volume so that aint gonna happen:mad:

dar31

delaval wrote: »

Average milk price for the year 47c. How did everyone else get on?

del, how did you work out ave price?

gross milk value / litre sold over the 11 month peroid

delaval

dar31 wrote: »

del, how did you work out ave price?

gross milk value / litre sold over the 11 month peroid

I use Net price

Timmaay

dar31 wrote: »

del, how did you work out ave price?

gross milk value / litre sold over the 11 month peroid

You definitely should weight it for each month, ie add up the value of each milk cheque then divide that by the total amount suppled, as opposed to getting one average milk price for the year, which would overestimate the value of milk in peak months.

jersey101

Timmaay wrote: »

You definitely should weight it for each month, ie add up the value of each milk cheque then divide that by the total amount suppled, as opposed to getting one average milk price for the year, which would overestimate the value of milk in peak months.

we just put the milk prices into the profit monitor and use what ever average price it says we got

delaval

Timmaay wrote: »

You definitely should weight it for each month, ie add up the value of each milk cheque then divide that by the total amount suppled, as opposed to getting one average milk price for the year, which would overestimate the value of milk in peak months.

Mine is from PM

biddy2013

delaval wrote: »

Last year? That was a top up for the same thing

Are you getting so many cheques that you can't remember

BTW welcome aboard;);)

i got the fixed price top up payment in march lodged on 20/ march just checked diary there

Brown Podzol

Rabobank milk price prediction for next year.

http://www.agriland.ie/news/dairy-prices-expected-to-stay-high-rabobank/

Timmaay

Brown Podzol wrote: »

Rabobank milk price prediction for next year.

http://www.agriland.ie/news/dairy-prices-expected-to-stay-high-rabobank/

Bloody quotas!!!

Brown Podzol

And then the bloody taxman:D

mahoney_j

Whilst. Welcoming the high milk price currently in offer ,I would be a tad worried that the longer the market stays at or near current levels.it is unsustainable long term(although I'd love to be wrong!!)I'd be worried about another 2009 only continuing longer.we will power on supplying milk next year albeit held by quota as will the kiwis and the Americans could blow us all out of the water.still make hay while the sun shines !

mf240

mahoney_j wrote: »

Whilst. Welcoming the high milk price currently in offer ,I would be a tad worried that the longer the market stays at or near current levels.it is unsustainable long term(although I'd love to be wrong!!)I'd be worried about another 2009 only continuing longer.we will power on supplying milk next year albeit held by quota as will the kiwis and the Americans could blow us all out of the water.still make hay while the sun shines !

Yes the greater the peak the greater the inevitable fall. As you say make hay while the sun shines. Just be sure to put some of that "hay" in a safe place for the next year of bad prices.

delaval

mahoney_j wrote: »

Whilst. Welcoming the high milk price currently in offer ,I would be a tad worried that the longer the market stays at or near current levels.it is unsustainable long term(although I'd love to be wrong!!)I'd be worried about another 2009 only continuing longer.we will power on supplying milk next year albeit held by quota as will the kiwis and the Americans could blow us all out of the water.still make hay while the sun shines !

Mahoney, are you sitting down?, 'cause I'm in full agreement with you. Since Mick O'Leary has gone all cuddely I recon I'd try it out.

NZ have shot themselves in the foot with their food safety issues. Their buyers are very active in the EU at the moment and especially in Rep of Ireand.

The US have surprised us all in that they didn't ramp up production as expected when grain price fell. They no doubt will but with the high beef price they are still culling hard and won't have the heifers calving in for another 6 mts or so.

I predict another 6mts at this price. I'd be concerned that price wouldn't pass 40c as buyers will start to substitute. At the moment buyers are looking to lock in with contracts (Glanbia) at the moment, so they must see it continuing a while longer anyway

Probably the biggest threat to our price, food scare aside is Fracking in the US. If this produces the amount of cheap energy that's predicted grain price will tank as will milk and beef.

mahoney_j

delaval wrote: »

Mahoney, are you sitting down?, 'cause I'm in full agreement with you. Since Mick O'Leary has gone all cuddely I recon I'd try it out.

NZ have shot themselves in the foot with their food safety issues. Their buyers are very active in the EU at the moment and especially in Rep of Ireand.

The US have surprised us all in that they didn't ramp up production as expected when grain price fell. They no doubt will but with the high beef price they are still culling hard and won't have the heifers calving in for another 6 mts or so.

I predict another 6mts at this price. I'd be concerned that price wouldn't pass 40c as buyers will start to substitute. At the moment buyers are looking to lock in with contracts (Glanbia) at the moment, so they must see it continuing a while longer anyway

Probably the biggest threat to our price, food scare aside is Fracking in the US. If this produces the amount of cheap energy that's predicted grain price will tank as will milk and beef.

I reckon current prices will be maintained till at least June or July and after that for rest of year price will be no lower than 34 or 35 cent.things could start getting scary though come early 2015 when the shackles come off in Europe and the yanks really hit top gear.

Brown Podzol

mahoney_j wrote: »

I reckon current prices will be maintained till at least June or July and after that for rest of year price will be no lower than 34 or 35 cent.things could start getting scary though come early 2015 when the shackles come off in Europe and the yanks really hit top gear.

Ok. Fracking, plentifull supply of cheap energy,releasing all the maize currently used for ethanol production for animal feed.

But god almighty if the Chineese ever step out of the market there will be blood on the floor.

maxxuumman

Yes, the Chinese are the ones to watch I think. In '08 we had the perfect storm that drove up the price of milk, the food scare in China being one of them. At the moment the Chinese are doing a big clean up on their milk to prevent another milk food scare. In the process of the clean up the chinese herd has been reduced by big numbers and supply is down by even bigger numbers while they get their facilities and processes sorted. At the moment they are buying in milk to keep their people going while they get things sorted, and we're reaping the benefit.
When they get things back up to speed in the next 12-18 months, we are going to be in for mother of all price drops. 2015-2016 are going to be b1thches of years.
On Mahoneys point, no this high sustained milk price is not good. The best milk price is a medium-good price combined with a high grain price. We have neither now.

delaval

On the point if the Chinese, I think their strategy is to import food. They do not have the land or the water to produce the large amounts of milk that their middle class' have grown acostomed to.

On the point re 2015 I think price will drop. I don't think quotas going will be the cause but it will coincide with US getting back in gear.

I don't see a massive explosion in the EU. I think it'll be more of a shift in production from Southern Europe to the northern states.

There will be a nervousness at this time as buyers will stand off in expectation of a collapse in price due to extra EU production. Events in America and China will dictate milk price

Mahoney looked for winter weather and look what happened, I hope he stops talking about milk price!!!!!

mahoney_j

delaval wrote: »

On the point if the Chinese, I think their strategy is to import food. They do not have the land or the water to produce the large amounts of milk that their middle class' have grown acostomed to.

On the point re 2015 I think price will drop. I don't think quotas going will be the cause but it will coincide with US getting back in gear.

I don't see a massive explosion in the EU. I think it'll be more of a shift in production from Southern Europe to the northern states.

There will be a nervousness at this time as buyers will stand off in expectation of a collapse in price due to extra EU production. Events in America and China will dictate milk price

Mahoney looked for winter weather and look what happened, I hope he stops talking about milk price!!!!!

My lips are sealed!!!!!.ye lads in the salt plains of Kilkenny will love all this rain .prosb get a growth rate of 100 this week!!!

delaval

mahoney_j wrote: »

My lips are sealed!!!!!.ye lads in the salt plains of Kilkenny will love all this rain .prosb get a growth rate of 100 this week!!!

Wahoo!!!

delaval

Brown Podzol wrote: »

Ok. Fracking, plentifull supply of cheap energy,releasing all the maize currently used for ethanol production for animal feed.

But god almighty if the Chineese ever step out of the market there will be blood on the floor.

When the dodoo hits the fan, there'll be some amount of people going to Teagasc and the Greenfield for advice!!!

stanflt

delaval wrote: »

When the dodoo hits the fan, there'll be some amount of people going to Teagasc and the Greenfield for advice!!!

If that happens it won't be called greenfield

It will revert to golden barley fields



Joking obviously

mahoney_j

delaval wrote: »

When the dodoo hits the fan, there'll be some amount of people going to Teagasc and the Greenfield for advice!!!

We might as well just buy the dairy exporter magazine from New Zealand so cause that's where most of their advice comes from!!.when the dodooo hits the fan as u say the same rules should apply as currently.grow lots of grass and more of it,have a herd of high ebi,high solids ,fertile cows and watch costs all over.

stanflt

mahoney_j wrote: »

We might as well just buy the dairy exporter magazine from New Zealand so cause that's where most of their advice comes from!!.when the dodooo hits the fan as u say the same rules should apply as currently.grow lots of grass and more of it,have a herd of high ebi,high solids ,fertile cows and watch costs all over.

Everyone knows that Ebi fertile cows and good grass don't work



8800 litres per cow delivered as of this morning

3.49 prot not going to make the 3.50

Brown Podzol

No one cares if you are profitable or not, upstream or downstream of your business as long as you are able to pay the bills and keep producing. By profitable I mean paying down debt, securing a pension,banking cash, building wealth. A return on risk and hard work. We shouldn't put ourselves in a place where the business is vulnerable to a year or two of low milk price and in good times be able to put a bit of fat into the business. High debt coupled with high costs will kill you. As Warren Buffet said " when the tide goes out we will see who is swimming in the nude".

keep going

delaval wrote: »

Mahoney, are you sitting down?, 'cause I'm in full agreement with you. Since Mick O'Leary has gone all cuddely I recon I'd try it out.

NZ have shot themselves in the foot with their food safety issues. Their buyers are very active in the EU at the moment and especially in Rep of Ireand.

The US have surprised us all in that they didn't ramp up production as expected when grain price fell. They no doubt will but with the high beef price they are still culling hard and won't have the heifers calving in for another 6 mts or so.

I predict another 6mts at this price. I'd be concerned that price wouldn't pass 40c as buyers will start to substitute. At the moment buyers are looking to lock in with contracts (Glanbia) at the moment, so they must see it continuing a while longer anyway

Probably the biggest threat to our price, food scare aside is Fracking in the US. If this produces the amount of cheap energy that's predicted grain price will tank as will milk and beef.

More or less spot on give orr take but when price does drop in 15 you will hear fellas blaming our increased production when really it will only be one factor in the mix

mahoney_j

Turnover is vanity,profit is sanity and cash is reality.geard that at a walk a few years back ,stuck with me since and pretty apt!

delaval

Did ye read Peter Young's piece in the IFJ?

Very striking how high price feed into higher costs

jersey101

delaval wrote: »

Did ye read Peter Young's piece in the IFJ?

Very striking how high price feed into higher costs

sure did, some serioys growth out there, 24t of DM/ha